Why economic forecasting has always been a flawed science

A BBC Radio 4 programme quoted my research:

“Prakash Loungani at the IMF analysed the accuracy of economic forecasters and found something remarkable and worrying. ‘The record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished,’ he said.

His analysis revealed that economists had failed to predict 148 of the past 150 recessions. Part of the problem, he said, was that there wasn’t much of a reputational gain to be had by predicting a recession others had missed. If you disagreed with the consensus, you would be met with scepticism. The downside of getting it wrong was more personally damaging than the upside of getting it right.”

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Posted by at 12:11 AM

Labels: Forecasting Forum


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