The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Junyi Xiang, Dongmin Kong, and Fan Zhang:

“Labor cost has rapidly increased in the past decades. However, little is known about its effect on the firm-level robot adoption, and evidence about the consequences of robot adoption on firm production is limited. Based on a novel dataset of robot adoption at the firm-level, we use geographic discontinuity design to identify that labor costs significantly increase robot adoption and further improve product quality. Our findings are robust to alternative specifications and particularly pronounced for foreign firms, and firms with low financial constraints, and general trade, and firms more dependence on unskilled labor, and firms in higher position in the value chain. When adopting robots to substitute labor, firms tend to employ (layoff) skilled (unskilled) labors, which increases expenses on employee training.”

From a paper by Joshua Aizenman:

“A growing share of emerging markets (EMs) uses hybrid versions of inflation targeting that differ from the IT regimes of the OECD countries. Real exchange rate and international reserve changes affect the policy interest rates in commodity countries, aiming to stabilize their real exchange rate in the presence of volatile terms of trade and heightened exposure to capital inflow/outflow shocks. Inflation targeting works well with independent central banks, yet fiscal dominance concerns may hinder the efficacy and independency of central banks. This suggests experimenting with the integration of monetary rules and fiscal rules, possibly linking these rules with the operations of buffers like international reserves and sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). The global financial crisis validated the benefits of countercyclical management of international reserves and SWFs in reducing the volatility of real exchange rates. Macroprudential policies may complement or even substitute buffer policies by reducing a country’s balance sheet exposure to foreign currency debt, mitigating the risk of costly sudden stops and capital flight. A growing share of EMs is experiencing exposure to new financial technologies (fintech), providing cheaper and faster financial services and extending financial coverage to previously under-served populations. Deeper fintech diffusion may redirect financial intermediation from regulated banks to emerging fintech shadow banks, some of which may have a global reach. These developments, and the diffusion of cryptocurrencies promising anonymized payment systems, may hinder the effectiveness of monetary policy and eventually induce greater financial instability. States may encourage the diffusion of efficient financial intermediation in ways that benefit users while restricting the use of anonymized exchange and global monies to reduce the threat of a shrinking tax base and to maintain financial stability.”

From a paper by Angela Okeke, and Constantinos Alexiou:

“This paper examines the relationship between public debt levels and income inequality during periods of fiscal consolidation (austerity). Specifically, it investigates two key questions: (a) whether high public debt during fiscal adjustments exacerbates income inequality, and (b) whether the composition of these adjustments influences the debt–inequality link. To address these issues, we apply a panel threshold methodology using annual data from 16 OECD countries over the period 1980–2019. Our findings reveal that public debt significantly affects income inequality, with the impact intensifying during fiscal adjustments, particularly at moderate debt thresholds (30–60%). Furthermore, when comparing the effects of tax-based versus spending-based adjustments, the evidence shows that tax-based consolidations tend to produce more persistent negative effects on income inequality.”

From a book review by Barry Eichengreen:

“Lawrence considers how government can create high-paying manufacturing jobs, a common goal of the Biden and Trump administrations. In seeking to increase the share of manufacturing in total employment, U.S. policy is pushing against the tide. Although the country’s manufacturing output continues to expand, manufacturing employment does not, reflecting mechanization and other factors that have boosted output per worker. Trade similarly limits manufacturing employment in the United States and other advanced economies since low-income countries have a comparative advantage in manufacturing activities that use semiskilled labor. Advanced countries are more likely to hold on to manufacturing jobs involving specialized tasks, but since these require skilled labor, policies promoting them have the perverse effect of widening income inequality. Lawrence concludes that although industrial policies might aid certain workers and specific U.S. states, they are unlikely to benefit American workers overall. To address low pay and worker displacement, he recommends expanding trade adjustment assistance to workers in declining industries, retraining workers to fill high-wage service-sector jobs, providing federal wage insurance that compensates displaced workers for income losses, and creating a better-targeted tax and transfer system.”

From a post by Astrid Haas:

“Africa’s cities are expanding at an unprecedented rate, bringing both challenges and opportunities. In this episode, feminist urban economist Astrid Haas explores three key pillars for inclusive and sustainable growth: governance, planning, and financing. In her view, effective governance requires adaptive institutions, transparent decision-making, and collaboration with civil society and the private sector to ensure cities meet the needs of all citizens. Proactive planning must address infrastructure, housing, and services while recognising the vital role of informal economies. Meanwhile, long-term, strategic financing and smarter municipal spending are essential for equitable development. With two-thirds of Africa’s population expected to live in cities by 2050, this conversation offers practical insights into harnessing urbanisation as a force for sustainable and inclusive growth.”