Showing posts with label Inclusive Growth.   Show all posts

Cyclical Fiscal Multipliers: Policy Mix and Financial Friction Puzzle

From a paper by Zamid Aligishiev and Hamed Ghiaie:

“This paper investigates dynamic relationships between U.S. government expenditure multipliers
and the economy’s cyclical position from 1949 to 2018 using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model. We challenge the existing literature, which predominantly relies on predefined economic regimes and assumes a stable relationship between fiscal multipliers and business cycles. Our findings identify two distinct periods: fiscal multipliers were counter-cyclical from 1949 to the late 1980s, followed by a significant decline in their effectiveness during recessions thereafter. These variations are attributed to the prevailing fiscal-monetary policy mix; with higher fiscal multipliers during earlier recessions resulting from sharp shifts toward a fiscally led policy stance, followed by a decline after the Dot-com recession due to a transition toward a monetary-led policy mix. We find particularly low multipliers during the global financial crisis, which provides new insights into the evolving role of financial frictions in the transmission of fiscal policy.”

From a paper by Zamid Aligishiev and Hamed Ghiaie:

“This paper investigates dynamic relationships between U.S. government expenditure multipliers
and the economy’s cyclical position from 1949 to 2018 using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model. We challenge the existing literature, which predominantly relies on predefined economic regimes and assumes a stable relationship between fiscal multipliers and business cycles. Our findings identify two distinct periods: fiscal multipliers were counter-cyclical from 1949 to the late 1980s,

Read the full article…

Posted by at 1:17 PM

Labels: Inclusive Growth

India’s Public Finance and Policy Challenges in the 2020s

From a book by K. R. Shanmugam:

“This book extensively examines various contemporary public finance themes of India, namely fiscal policy and macro economy, public expenditure policy, tax policy, fiscal transfers policy, public debt policy and fiscal imbalance, and environment and climate finance policies. It has three to five chapters devoted to each of these broad themes, with the contributors being eminent economists from the region. While the topics are specific to Indian public finance, they are relevant to global audience to understand about Indian public finance themes and make a comparison with public finance in other countries. The findings and suggestions given in each chapter are based on the latest data, using current methodologies, and are relevant to the times. The book serves as an excellent reference for students in economics, public finance, political science and management, and a valuable tool for professionals such as policymakers, fiscal analysts, and other stakeholders in the areas of global economics and public and finance, in general, and India in particular.”

From a book by K. R. Shanmugam:

“This book extensively examines various contemporary public finance themes of India, namely fiscal policy and macro economy, public expenditure policy, tax policy, fiscal transfers policy, public debt policy and fiscal imbalance, and environment and climate finance policies. It has three to five chapters devoted to each of these broad themes, with the contributors being eminent economists from the region. While the topics are specific to Indian public finance,

Read the full article…

Posted by at 1:14 PM

Labels: Inclusive Growth

A Note on Structural Uncertainty, Flexibility and Monetary Policy Credibility: An Inflation Targeting Approach for the Post-Covid Period

From a paper by Ricardo Ramalhete Moreira:

“Since the Covid-19 pandemic, many economic policy protocols have come under scrutiny regarding their ability to handle unforeseen events and systemic effects. In particular, inflation targeting regimes have been questioned due to significant inflationary deviations resulting from a substantial rise in firms’ operating costs and, simultaneously, the necessary accommodation of shocks by central banks through a reduction in real interest rates to address the recessionary impacts of the pandemic. This brief article explores institutional channels and builds an original optimization analysis of the trade-off between flexibility and credibility as attributes of monetary policy, thereby highlighting aspects that make inflation targeting regimes a resilient framework for dealing with the structural uncertainty surrounding central bank decisions in the post-Covid era.”

From a paper by Ricardo Ramalhete Moreira:

“Since the Covid-19 pandemic, many economic policy protocols have come under scrutiny regarding their ability to handle unforeseen events and systemic effects. In particular, inflation targeting regimes have been questioned due to significant inflationary deviations resulting from a substantial rise in firms’ operating costs and, simultaneously, the necessary accommodation of shocks by central banks through a reduction in real interest rates to address the recessionary impacts of the pandemic.

Read the full article…

Posted by at 7:01 AM

Labels: Inclusive Growth

An Implicit Credibility Index for the Central Banks that Implemented Inflation-Targeting Regime

From a paper by Nezir Köse and Ali Talih Süt:

“This study proposes an implicit index for central bank credibility, which is critical in developing countries implementing an inflation-targeting regime. In a credible central bank, the policy rate impacts the interest rate on short-term deposits. Under this assumption, the residuals obtained from the panel regression model, in which deposit rates are defined as dependent and policy rates as independent variables, are used to calculate the implicit credibility index of central banks. The proposed central bank implicit credibility index was calculated using monthly data from 12 developing countries and New Zealand implementing the inflation targeting regime between January 2006 and June 2023. According to average implicit credibility scores, the most credible central banks for the period between 2006 and 2023 are Thailand, South Africa, and New Zealand, respectively. The results of the fixed effects model using the annual data of the 13 countries between 2006 and 2022 indicate that inflation and its uncertainties have negative effects on the implicit credibility index of the central bank. These results indicate that central banks in developing countries with high inflation and inflation uncertainty may have difficulty in ensuring credibility.”

From a paper by Nezir Köse and Ali Talih Süt:

“This study proposes an implicit index for central bank credibility, which is critical in developing countries implementing an inflation-targeting regime. In a credible central bank, the policy rate impacts the interest rate on short-term deposits. Under this assumption, the residuals obtained from the panel regression model, in which deposit rates are defined as dependent and policy rates as independent variables, are used to calculate the implicit credibility index of central banks.

Read the full article…

Posted by at 6:59 AM

Labels: Inclusive Growth

Minimum Wage, Foreign Firm Exit and Export: Heterogeneity in Investment Motivation

From a paper by Bing Lu, Xu Yang, Xinding Yu:

“Using data from Chinese industrial firms between 2000 and 2013, we explore the varied impact of minimum wage increases on the exit behavior and export performance of foreign-owned firms, focusing on three primary motivations: labor costs, market size, and industrial linkages. The results show that foreign-owned firms driven by labor costs are more likely to exit following a minimum wage hike, while those motivated by market size and industrial linkages are less likely to be affected. We also observe similar patterns in firm exports: rising minimum wages generally reduce foreign-owned firms’ exports, with the impact being more pronounced for firms with lower domestic market shares and weaker industrial linkages. This paper highlights that deep integration of foreign-owned firms into the domestic market and industrial chain can help mitigate the exit risks associated with rising labor costs.”

From a paper by Bing Lu, Xu Yang, Xinding Yu:

“Using data from Chinese industrial firms between 2000 and 2013, we explore the varied impact of minimum wage increases on the exit behavior and export performance of foreign-owned firms, focusing on three primary motivations: labor costs, market size, and industrial linkages. The results show that foreign-owned firms driven by labor costs are more likely to exit following a minimum wage hike,

Read the full article…

Posted by at 12:00 PM

Labels: Inclusive Growth

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