The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Surjit S. Bhalla, Karan Bhasin, and Prakash Loungani:

“There seems to be a consensus that the inflation targeting framework adopted in India in 2016 has been successful in taming inflation. A comprehensive analysis of inflation targeting should be based on the impact on inflation dynamics, expectations and implications for growth. We illustrate the strong downward time-trend in India’s inflation dynamics coinciding with the inflation targeting regime. Trend inflation levels in India and other emerging market economies also suggest a downward trajectory regardless of the adoption of inflation targeting. Thefore, it is difficult to conclusively establish that adoption of inflation targeting in India led to a moderation in inflation or anchoring of inflation expectations. On expectations, there is some evidence of anchored household expectations, however, this anchoring predates the formal adoption of inflation targeting. Long-term expectations in India have remained firmly anchored since early 2000s. In terms of growth, the high real interest rates policy followed during the initial years of inflation targeting to establish credibility of IT regime adversely affected India’s growth dynamics.”

From a paper by Zhongxia Zhang:

“This paper presents a comprehensive panel dataset of 41 Inflation Targeting (IT) countries from 1990 to 2024 regarding their inflation targets, bands, and track records. First, data on inflation targets and bands are collected through each central bank’s historical documents. Second, several rules-based track record measures are calculated for inflation targeting countries over specific past periods to assess actual inflation outcomes with respect to the central banks’ stated policy objectives. The dataset, which covers both developed and developing countries, is useful for empirical research in economics and finance. Potential reuse areas of this dataset include studies on central banks’ adjustments of inflation targets and bands, the interplay between inflation targeting and economic performance, and the relationship between inflation targeting and financial markets.”

From a paper by Zamid Aligishiev and Hamed Ghiaie:

“This paper investigates dynamic relationships between U.S. government expenditure multipliers
and the economy’s cyclical position from 1949 to 2018 using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model. We challenge the existing literature, which predominantly relies on predefined economic regimes and assumes a stable relationship between fiscal multipliers and business cycles. Our findings identify two distinct periods: fiscal multipliers were counter-cyclical from 1949 to the late 1980s, followed by a significant decline in their effectiveness during recessions thereafter. These variations are attributed to the prevailing fiscal-monetary policy mix; with higher fiscal multipliers during earlier recessions resulting from sharp shifts toward a fiscally led policy stance, followed by a decline after the Dot-com recession due to a transition toward a monetary-led policy mix. We find particularly low multipliers during the global financial crisis, which provides new insights into the evolving role of financial frictions in the transmission of fiscal policy.”

From a book by K. R. Shanmugam:

“This book extensively examines various contemporary public finance themes of India, namely fiscal policy and macro economy, public expenditure policy, tax policy, fiscal transfers policy, public debt policy and fiscal imbalance, and environment and climate finance policies. It has three to five chapters devoted to each of these broad themes, with the contributors being eminent economists from the region. While the topics are specific to Indian public finance, they are relevant to global audience to understand about Indian public finance themes and make a comparison with public finance in other countries. The findings and suggestions given in each chapter are based on the latest data, using current methodologies, and are relevant to the times. The book serves as an excellent reference for students in economics, public finance, political science and management, and a valuable tool for professionals such as policymakers, fiscal analysts, and other stakeholders in the areas of global economics and public and finance, in general, and India in particular.”

From a paper by Ricardo Ramalhete Moreira:

“Since the Covid-19 pandemic, many economic policy protocols have come under scrutiny regarding their ability to handle unforeseen events and systemic effects. In particular, inflation targeting regimes have been questioned due to significant inflationary deviations resulting from a substantial rise in firms’ operating costs and, simultaneously, the necessary accommodation of shocks by central banks through a reduction in real interest rates to address the recessionary impacts of the pandemic. This brief article explores institutional channels and builds an original optimization analysis of the trade-off between flexibility and credibility as attributes of monetary policy, thereby highlighting aspects that make inflation targeting regimes a resilient framework for dealing with the structural uncertainty surrounding central bank decisions in the post-Covid era.”