The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon Hanson, Maggie R. Jones, Bradley Setzler:

“This chapter analyzes the distinct adjustment paths of U.S. labor markets (places) and U.S. workers (people) to increased Chinese import competition during the 2000s. Using comprehensive register data for 2000–2019, we document that employment levels more than fully rebound in trade-exposed places after 2010, while employment-to-population ratios remain depressed and manufacturing employment further atrophies. The adjustment of places to trade shocks is generational: affected areas recover primarily by adding workers to non-manufacturing who were below working age when the shock occurred. Entrants are disproportionately native-born Hispanics, foreign-born immigrants, women, and the college-educated, who find employment in relatively low-wage service sectors such as medical services, education, retail, and hospitality. Using the panel structure of the employer-employee data, we decompose changes in the employment composition of places into trade-induced shifts in the gross flows of people across sectors, locations, and non-employment status. Contrary to standard models, trade shocks reduce geographic mobility, with both in- and out-migration remaining depressed through 2019. The employment recovery stems almost entirely from young adults and foreign-born immigrants taking their first U.S. jobs in affected areas, with minimal contributions from cross-sector transitions of former manufacturing workers. Although worker inflows into non-manufacturing more than fully offset manufacturing employment losses in trade-exposed locations after 2010, incumbent workers neither fully recover earnings losses nor predominantly exit the labor market, but rather age in place as communities undergo rapid demographic and industrial transitions.”

From a paper by Tomas Kabrt:

“This paper focuses on the demographic determinants of current account balance (CAB) across income groups, continents, and time periods between 1993 and 2021. The benchmark model employs a panel data analysis, particularly a two-way effects estimator (Baltagi, 2021), with CAB as the main dependent variable, while savings rate (SAV) is used as an alternative dependent variable. It was found that the old dependency ratio, fertility rate, life expectancy, population growth, and mortality rate have a statistically significant effect on CAB and SAV, but the effects are heterogeneous across income groups and continents. In Africa, an increase in the old dependency ratio has a negative effect on CAB in accordance with the theories of Modigliani and Sterling (1983), Graham, (1987), and Masson and Tryon (1990). Fertility rate has a negative effect on CAB in Africa while having an ambiguous effect in Asia and Europe. In line with the findings of Mason and Lee (2006), there is a positive relationship between fertility rates and CAB and SAV in lower-middle-income countries and negative relationship in high-income countries. Conversely, population growth affects negatively CAB and SAV in lower middle-income countries and positively in high-income countries.”

From a paper by Alessandra Fogli, Veronica Guerrieri, Mark Ponder, and Marta Prato:

“Since the 1980s, the US has experienced not only a steady increase in income inequality, but also a contemporaneous rise in residential segregation by income. What is the relationship between inequality and residential segregation? How does it affect intergenerational mobility? We first document a positive correlation between inequality and segregation, both over time and across metro areas. We then develop a general equilibrium model where parents choose the neighborhood where they raise their children and invest in their children’s education. In the model, segregation and inequality amplify each other because of a local spillover that affects the return to education. We calibrate the model to a representative US metro in 1980 and use the micro estimates of neighborhood exposure effects in Chetty and Hendren (2018b) to discipline the strength of the local spillover. We first use the calibrated version of the model to explore the economy’s response to an unexpected skill premium shock. We find that segregation dynamics played a significant role in amplifying the increase in inequality and in dampening intergenerational mobility. We then use the model to explore the effects of policies designed to move poor families to better neighborhoods, like the Moving To Opportunity (MTO) program. We show that scaling up MTO policies induces general equilibrium effects that limit their efficacy.”

From the Global Labor Market Conference:

“The Global Labor Charter outlines a vision to enhance labor market flexibility, tackle youth unemployment, and ensure sustainable, inclusive growth.

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia, Jan. 29, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — The second edition of the Global Labor Market Conference kicked off with the highly anticipated ministerial roundtable, chaired by His Excellency the Minister of Human Resources and Social Development, Eng. Ahmed bin Sulaiman Al Rajhi. Bringing together over 40 labor ministers from G20 Countries, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas, along with the Director General of the ILO Gilbert Houngbo. the high-level meeting hosted an impactful dialogue on pressing labor market challenges and opportunities.

In his opening speech, the Minister warmly welcomed the international labor ministers to Riyadh, highlighting the Kingdom’s commitment to leading the global dialogue on the future of labor markets through this conference. He emphasized that the event serves as a strategic platform to foster international collaboration and develop innovative solutions to address labor market challenges while ensuring their sustainability amidst rapid technological advancements.

His Excellency concluded by urging Ministers from around the world to leverage the roundtable as a dynamic platform for exchanging insights and experiences, addressing the challenges facing labor markets, and showcasing notable achievements. He stressed that joint action and the exchange of ideas among nations have the potential to drive significant transformation, empowering and supporting young people while building a more inclusive and sustainable future for all.

The meeting fostered an exchange of ideas and experiences, with the ministers reviewing key trends and pressing challenges in the labor market. These discussions laid a solid groundwork for crafting practical strategies to support future transformations and strengthen the sustainability of labor markets.”

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From IISD:

“The recent UN Summit of the Future (SoF) stressed the need to address well-known shortcomings of gross domestic product (GDP) as an indicator of wealth by developing a framework for measuring sustainable development progress that can complement and go beyond GDP. The need for such measures is widely recognized. The UN Secretary-General has described overreliance on GDP as a “glaring blind spot in how we measure economic prosperity and progress.”  The Pact for the Future – the Summit’s outcome document – specifically identifies the need “to develop recommendations for a limited number of country-owned and universally applicable indicators of sustainable development that complement and go beyond GDP,” taking into account the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

In anticipation of growing global efforts to select indicators that move beyond GDP, the SDG Knowledge Hub is providing regular updates on publications on this topic. The authors use databases of agencies and peer-reviewed literature to collect such information.

The first issue of the ‘Beyond GDP’ update series comes in the aftermath of the September 2024 Summit of the Future and covers the period from October through December 2024.

Recommendations for specific indicators and indices to complement GDP performance

The fifth edition of the World Bank’s report on the Changing Wealth of Nations (CWON) themed,  ‘Revisiting the Measurement of Comprehensive Wealth,’ presents a methodology, global CWON estimates, and trends of the assets of the wealth portfolio, including trends on non-renewable natural capital, hydropower, forests and agricultural land, blue natural capital, and human capital. As the report’s authors suggest, the publication is intended for a technical audience, including policy advisors, statisticians, and researchers.”

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