The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Sohei Kaihatsu, Shogo Nakano, and Hiroki Yamamoto:

“This paper examines the impact of shifts in long-term inflation expectations on economic activity and price dynamics in Japan using a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. Our empirical findings demonstrate that exogenous positive shocks to long-term inflation expectations improve the output gap and generate upward pressure on inflation rates. These results suggest the existence of an “expectations channel” in Japan, whereby higher inflation expectations stimulate private sector spending through mechanisms such as reducing real funding costs. Looking at the analysis by period, it indicates that during the deflationary phase of the 2000s, declining long-term inflation expectations likely contributed to persistent downward pressure on prices, potentially serving as one factor that hindered Japan’s exit from sustained deflation. However, following the introduction of the “price stability target” and Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) in 2013, this contribution reversed, appearing to exert upward pressure on inflation rates. In this respect, the findings suggest that the “management of expectations” intended by monetary policy during this period demonstrated some effectiveness. Nevertheless, as inflation rates subsequently declined, the upward contribution of inflation expectations to the inflation rate diminished, failing to anchor expectations to the price stability target. This outcome suggests the inherent difficulty in maintaining a sustained influence on long-term inflation expectations.”

From a paper by Bello Dalhatu:

“In an effort to provide policy recommendations for Nigeria’s transition to full-fledged inflation targeting, this study examines Ghana’s monetary policy frameworks (monetary aggregates targeting and inflation targeting) using ARDL bounds test for cointegration and Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) on annual time series data spanning 1965 to 2022 obtained from the Bank of Ghana database and the World Bank database on World Development Indicators. The results demonstrate that monetary aggregates targeting has not been successful in both the short-run and long-run periods in moderating and stabilizing inflation; however, inflation moderated under inflation targeting in both the short run and the long term. This indicates that inflation targeting proves to be a superior monetary policy framework for inflation control.”

From a paper by Chor Foon Tang and Jiechen Wang:

“Over the last 30 years, China has experienced outstanding economic growth along with significant transformation in its financial system and institutional environment. It has also emerged as the primary destination for substantial foreign direct investment (FDI). Therefore, numerous studies have focused on the roles of FDI, financial development and institutional quality in stimulating the Chinese economy. However, existing literature primarily addresses the direct linear impact on economic growth, neglecting potential non-linear relationships and the roles of institutions and financial development in moderating the FDI–growth nexus. This study employs unit root and Johansen’s cointegration tests to examine the roles of FDI, institutional quality and financial development in explaining economic growth in China from 1985 to 2020. Our results show that FDI, institutions, financial development and growth are cointegrated, with non-linear effects of institutional quality and financial development on growth. Furthermore, the impact of FDI on growth decreases when financial development is high (0.627%–0.517%), but increases with improved institutional quality (0.921%–1.158%). Hence, continuous improvements in institutional quality and the financial system do not uniformly affect economic growth, but significantly influence the contribution of FDI to economic growth in China.”

From a paper by Patrice Ollivaud and Cyrille Schwellnus:

“Productivity growth in most advanced economies has slowed significantly over the past five decades. The negative impact on real wage growth has been amplified by declines in labour income shares, which have been particularly pronounced during the period 1983-2007. This chapter analyses labour share developments using a combination of country, industry and firm-level data. Technological change in the investment goods-producing sector and greater global value chain participation have tended to compress labour shares, but the effects have been significantly less pronounced in Japan and most European countries than in the United States. Firm-level evidence suggests that declines in labour shares reflect technological dynamism rather than anti-competitive forces. Policies that raise human capital through education and training play a crucial role to broaden the sharing of productivity gains by ensuring that workers can make the most of ongoing technological advances.”

From a paper by Theo Eicher, Reina Kawai Eskimez, and Monique Newiak:

“Crises often require economic consolidations that may unevenly affect different segments of the population. Some crisis countries enter financial arrangements with the IMF and adopt adjustment programs, and studies have associated program conditionality with negative impacts on gender inequality. Proper evaluations of the impacts of IMF-supported programs on gender inequality require, however, credible control groups that address the counterfactual: do post-crisis gender disparities evolve differently without an IMF-supported program? We examine over 150 IMF-supported programs (1994-2022) using custom-tailored control groups that match each IMF-supported program country’s gender and economic trends and find overwhelming evidence against systematic impacts of IMF-supported programs on gender equality.”