The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Washingtone Onyango, Socrates Majune, and Patricia Naluwooza:

“This study analyzes the effect of China’s import dominance on Africa’s structural transformation, measured through the Shapley decomposition approach. A pooled mean group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) model is analyzed using panel data from 1995–2018 for 21 countries. We find that Chinese imports of goods and services, like those from the rest of the world, increase Africa’s structural transformation in the long-run. However, the magnitude of the coefficient for China is larger than that of the rest of the world for both goods and services (total). The Chinese impact on Africa’s structural transformation is mainly through capital goods and other commercial services (such as ICT, financial, and construction), whose coefficients are larger than those of the rest of the world. Imposing barriers on Chinese imports is not a viable option for African countries. Instead, they should pursue policies that enrich the manufacturing sector, including adopting an Africa-wide trade agreement.”

From Brookings:

“2025 will be a critical juncture for Africa’s trajectory. New political leadership in both the African Union and the United States coincides with the urgent need to meet the looming 2030 deadline for the Sustainable Development Goals, to accelerate implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area, and to modernize and renew the African Growth and Opportunity Act—a cornerstone of the U.S. Africa trade relationship—currently set to expire in September 2025. Paired with an escalating climate crisis and the reverberations of conflict and global economic instability, these dynamics will require bold and coordinated policy action to address Africa’s unique challenges while leveraging its vast potential.

This special edition of Foresight Africa—the flagship annual report of the Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings—extends its focus from one year to five and offers cutting-edge insights and actionable strategies from heads of government, global institutions, continental and multilateral institutions, as well as leading Brookings scholars and other high-profile policymakers, business figures, and civil society leaders.

Together, the report’s six chapters offer a comprehensive vision for Africa’s next chapter—a future driven by African leadership, bold innovation, and inclusive growth.”

Continue reading here.

From The Indian Express:

“While there is little room for complacency, Indian growth is inclusive on most counts

Inclusive growth is critical for us to become a developed nation by 2047. A leading indicator is improvements in the living standards of those at the bottom of the economic pyramid. Another is the direction of changes in income inequality. Apart from being a moral issue, distribution of national income determines the composition of aggregate demand and hence, the allocation of resources to different production processes, which, in turn, will affect the pace towards Viksit Bharat.”

Continue reading here.

From a paper by Emmanouil Sofianos, Christos Alexakis, Periklis Gogas, and Theophilos Papadimitriou:

“This paper aims to forecast deviations of the US output measured by the industrial production index (IPI), from its long-run potential output, known as output gaps. These gaps are important for policymakers when designing relevant economic policies, especially when a negative output gap may show economic slack or underperformance, often associated with higher unemployment and low inflation. We use a dataset that includes 32 explanatory economic and financial variables and 18 lags of the IPI, spanning the period from 2000:1 to 2022:12, resulting in 50 variables and 276 monthly observations. The dataset is fed to five well-established machine learning (ML) methods, namely decision trees, random forests, XGBoost, long short-term memory (LSTM) and support vector machines (SVMs), coupled with the linear, the RBF and the polynomial kernel. Moreover, we use the standard elastic net logit method from the area of econometrics as a benchmark. Our results indicate that the tree-based ML techniques perform better in-sample, and the best overall forecasting model is the XGBoost achieving an out-of-sample accuracy of 91.67%.”

From funds for NGOs:

“The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a pivotal institution in the global economic landscape, established in 1944 with the primary goal of fostering international monetary cooperation and ensuring financial stability. With its headquarters in Washington, D.C., the IMF comprises 190 member countries, each contributing to a pool of financial resources that can be accessed by nations in need. The organization plays a crucial role in monitoring the global economy, providing policy advice, and offering financial assistance to countries facing economic challenges.

Its mission is not only to stabilize economies but also to promote sustainable growth and reduce poverty worldwide. The IMF’s influence extends beyond mere financial transactions; it serves as a forum for dialogue among its member countries, facilitating discussions on economic policies and strategies. By analyzing global economic trends and providing data-driven insights, the IMF helps nations navigate complex economic landscapes.

Its work is particularly vital in an increasingly interconnected world where economic crises can have far-reaching implications. As such, the IMF stands as a guardian of global economic stability, striving to create an environment conducive to growth and prosperity for all nations.

Promoting Economic Growth through Policy Advice and Technical Assistance

One of the IMF’s core functions is to provide policy advice and technical assistance to its member countries. This support is tailored to the specific needs of each nation, taking into account its unique economic circumstances and challenges. The IMF’s expertise in macroeconomic policy, fiscal management, and monetary policy allows it to offer valuable recommendations that can help countries achieve sustainable economic growth.

By engaging with governments and policymakers, the IMF fosters an environment where sound economic policies can flourish. Technical assistance from the IMF often includes training programs, workshops, and on-the-ground support aimed at strengthening institutional capacities. For instance, the organization may assist a country in developing its tax administration system or enhancing its public financial management practices.

Such initiatives not only improve the efficiency of government operations but also bolster transparency and accountability. By equipping countries with the necessary tools and knowledge, the IMF empowers them to implement effective policies that drive economic growth and development.

(…)

“In recent years, the IMF has increasingly recognized the importance of sustainable development and inclusive growth as integral components of its mission.”

Continue reading here.

We at this website have long encouraged the IMF’s embrace of inclusive growth as a goal. See the blog on inclusive growth and the IMF.