Showing posts with label Inclusive Growth. Show all posts
Thursday, December 20, 2012
An assessment of the US jobless recovery through a non-linear Okun’s law
Following the recent financial crisis and its subsequent Great Recession, the issue of a sluggish US employment was raised by economic observers. In a previous post on Econbrowser, Menzie Chinn pointed out the usefulness of the Okun’s law in assessing the potential level of employment after the recession. Especially, Menzie shows that:
- If one does not account for the long-term relationship between GDP and employment (i.e.; if one focuses only on the relationship in differences), then the bounce-back in employment after the 2008-09 recession cannot be captured.
- A standard error-correction model (ECM) is able to reproduce the general evolutions, but misses a large part of the recovery after the end of the recession.
- Accounting for the US business cycle by incorporating a dummy variable that takes the value 1 during recessions and 0 otherwise, according to the NBER Dating Committee dating, enables a better reproduction of stylized facts.
From Econbrowser:
Following the recent financial crisis and its subsequent Great Recession, the issue of a sluggish US employment was raised by economic observers. In a previous post on Econbrowser, Menzie Chinn pointed out the usefulness of the Okun’s law in assessing the potential level of employment after the recession. Especially, Menzie shows that:
- If one does not account for the long-term relationship between GDP and employment (i.e.; if one focuses only on the relationship in differences),
Posted by at 12:34 PM
Labels: Inclusive Growth
Wednesday, December 19, 2012
How the IMF and the World Bank contribute to a job-rich global recovery?
Posted by at 1:23 PM
Labels: Inclusive Growth
Friday, November 2, 2012
Okun’s Law: Fit at 50?
This paper investigates how well Okun’s Law explains short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in a sample of 20 advanced economies since 1980. Our principal conclusion is that Okun’s Law is a strong and stable relationship in most countries. Also, the coefficient in the relationship—the effect of a one percent change in output on the unemployment rate—varies substantially across countries. We take a first look at the sources of these differences; one finding is that they are not explained by differences in employment protection laws. Finally, we find that Okun’s Law held up well during the Great Recession and that recoveries have not become “jobless” in the sense of a breakdown in Okun’s Law. The paper is available here.
This paper investigates how well Okun’s Law explains short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in a sample of 20 advanced economies since 1980. Our principal conclusion is that Okun’s Law is a strong and stable relationship in most countries. Also, the coefficient in the relationship—the effect of a one percent change in output on the unemployment rate—varies substantially across countries. We take a first look at the sources of these differences;
Posted by at 8:22 AM
Labels: Inclusive Growth
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Restoring Hope: Policy Options for Jobs & Growth
Sara Eisen of Bloomberg TV moderated a discussion on jobs and growth at the Tokyo annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank. IMF Deputy Managing Director Zhu said that “in the near term, a growth strategy is the best jobs strategy”. Read his views here.
Sara Eisen of Bloomberg TV moderated a discussion on jobs and growth at the Tokyo annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank. IMF Deputy Managing Director Zhu said that “in the near term, a growth strategy is the best jobs strategy”. Read his views here.
Posted by at 6:45 PM
Labels: Inclusive Growth
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
State of Global Labor Markets
My regular look at the global employment picture is available here.
My regular look at the global employment picture is available here.
Posted by at 1:32 AM
Labels: Inclusive Growth
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