The Unassuming Economist

A new IMF working paper studies “the relationship between international trade, economic growth and inequality with a focus on Latin America and the Caribbean. The paper combines two approaches: First, [this paper employs] a cross-country panel framework to analyze the macroeconomic effects of international trade on economic growth and inequality considering the strength of trade connections as well as characteristics of countries’ export markets and products. Second, [this paper considers] event studies of past episodes of trade liberalization to extract general lessons on the impact of trade liberalization on economic growth and its structure and inequality. Both approaches consistently point to two broad messages: First, trade openness and connectivity to the center of the trade network has substantial macroeconomic benefits. Second, [no] statistically significant or economically sizable direct impact of trade on overall income inequality.”

A new IMF report “quantifies the effect of gender inequality in Morocco on growth, compared to groups of faster growing countries. It also estimates income losses due to low female labor force participation. The results highlight that closing overall gender gaps would help Morocco close its GDP per capita gap with benchmark countries in other regions by up to 1 percentage point. Simulations also show that gradually closing gender gaps in the labor force participation rate could lead to significant income gains over the long term. Policy recommendations to promote gender equality include investing in secondary education for women and in infrastructure, and reforming gender-discriminatory tax policies and laws.”

Here is a revised version of my paper with Larry Ball and Daniel Leigh and the dataset and programs needed to reproduce the results.

“After a decade of a vibrant development Turkish tourism sector was hit by a major fall in foreign tourists’ arrivals. This [IMF] study takes stock of recent developments and considers potential spillovers from tourism sector to other parts of the economy. It finds that a negative shock to foreign arrivals had a significant impact on the economic activity in 2016, while the recovery prospects remain subdued”, says IMF report on Turkey.

A new IMF report analyzes the lowering of the Gini coefficient in Uruguay during the last six years. Social policies and transfers have played a significant role in reducing poverty and inequality. While income dispersion has decreased across Latin America over the last decade, Uruguay stands out as the country with the largest drop in the Gini coefficient between 2009 and 2014, and to the lowest level. This reflects both government guidelines to bolster low wages, and increased redistribution through income taxes and transfers. However, looking ahead, the positive effects of further redistributive policies may be weighed against their fiscal costs and by a possible trade-off between income compression and incentives for labor supply and education and training. Work incentives among women can be strengthened further via reforms of parental leave, to reduce the remaining gender wage gap, and would diminish future pressures on public finances due to population ageing.