The Unassuming Economist

A new IMF report says that “Over the past decade or so, Brazil—a still highly unequal country—has been the poster child for social mobility. According to the World Bank’s international poverty line, Brazil slashed poverty from 25 percent of the population in 2004 to 8.5 percent in 2014. Extreme poverty declined from 12 to 4 percent over the same period. As millions were lifted out of poverty, the middle class was boosted. The commonly used inequality measure – the World Bank’s Gini coefficient (the closer to 1, the more unequal) – declined from 0.60 in 1990 to 0.51 in 2014. Inequality reduction was achieved thanks to a decade-long period of economic growth and deliberate income and social inclusion policies, such as minimum wage increases and targeted social programs. Yet, inequality remains high: based on data from the 2014 Pesquisa National de Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD), labor income of the population in the top decile of the income distribution corresponds to 40 percent of labor income of all Brazilian families, the top 1 per cent receives about 12 percent, and the top 0.1 per cent around 2.5 percent. Half percent of all labor income is concentrated in the top 0.01 percent.”

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From a new IMF report:

“Rwanda has been one of the fastest growing economies in sub-Saharan Africa, and emerged as a global leader in promoting gender equality. Over the past ten years, economic growth has averaged 7.7 percent, with per capita income close to doubling to $729 in 2016. Between 2004 and 2014, the poverty rate declined by almost 18 percentage points to 39 percent while extreme poverty declined to 16 percent.

Rwanda’s advances in gender equality emerged, in part, as a necessary component of the rebuilding and development strategy from the mid-1990s, with women taking on new roles as major actors in society and heads of households. Today, the role of Rwandan Women is celebrated, as evident in many aspects elaborated further in this paper. Gender equality as an integral component of its development agenda—with advocacy at the highest level, constant engagement in programs to enhance economic opportunities for women, home-grown solutions to address gender inequality, an enabling legal framework and supporting institutions—such as a dedicated gender “machinery”: the Ministry of Gender and Family Promotion, the Gender Monitoring Office, the National Women Council, and the Forum for Women Parliamentarians. The provision of gender disaggregated data has increased (NISR 2016: National Gender Statistics Report), and allows a timely assessment of the main indicators.

In parallel, indicators of gender equality have improved significantly (Figure 4), and the World Economic Forum’s 2016 Gender Gap Index ranks Rwanda number 1 among all low-and-middle-income countries in closing the gender gap. Rwanda also positioned itself as number 5 worldwide, and one of only five countries to have ever reached a score of more than 80 out 100. Globally, Rwanda also ranks second in the UN’s 2015 Gender Development Index and has the lowest level of gender inequality, as measured by the Gender Inequality Index in sub-Saharan Africa.”

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From a new IMF report:

“Inclusive growth is a priority that resonates globally today. It relates to a broad sharing of the benefits of, and the opportunities for, economic growth, and reflects growth that is robust and broad-based across sectors, promotes productive employment across the labor force, embodies equal opportunities in access to markets and resources, and protects the vulnerable.

The G20 has emphasized the need for inclusive growth. In this regard, the Hangzhou G20 leaders’ Summit in September 2016 renewed the emphasis on inclusive growth called for the forging of both a narrative for strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth and for adopting a package of policies to make this possible. The communique stated that the G20 would “work to ensure that our economic growth serves the needs of everyone and benefits all countries and all people including in particular women, youth and disadvantaged groups, generating more quality jobs, addressing inequalities and eradicating poverty so that no one is left behind.” G20 Ministers returned to this in March 2017 in Baden-Baden noting that: “We reiterate our determination to use all policy tools––monetary, fiscal and structural––individually and collectively to achieve our goal of strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth, while enhancing economic and financial resilience.”

Economic growth and inequality, the two sides of inclusion, have a complex nexus that can generate tradeoffs. Growth is the basis for generating inclusion. Across countries, growth has been instrumental in narrowing income gaps; within countries, growth has reduced poverty and made possible higher living standards and job opportunities. But policies driven by an exclusive growth focus can also set back inclusion in certain circumstances. While some inequality is integral to a market economy, high and persistent inequality can undermine the sustainability of growth itself.”

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The latest update of the International Jobs Report shows that: “The global unemployment rate is expected to remain stable this year at about 5.7 percent and then decline in the coming years. The total number of people unemployed around the globe will remain at about 175 million this year. Unemployment rates are expected to decline in most advanced economies, but expected to be higher this year (compared to last year) in many emerging markets. Venezuela’s unemployment rate is expected to increase by 4 percentage points between 2016 and 2017, with smaller increases expected in Algeria, Brazil, South Africa and Turkey.”Continue reading here.

An IMF working paper finds: “This paper assesses spillovers from fiscal consolidations in 10 euro area countries using an innovative empirical methodology. The analysis lends support to the existence of fiscal spillovers, with fiscal consolidation in one country reducing not only the domestic output but also the output of other member states. Spillover effects are larger for: (i) more closely located and economically integrated countries, and (ii) for fiscal shocks originating from relatively larger countries. Most of the impact comes from revenue measures, while the impact of expenditure measures is relatively weaker. The latter result is consistent with the distortionary effects of taxation and empirical literature on fiscal multipliers using the narrative approach (Leigh and others 2010; Abiad and others 2011).

Our results have important policy implications. They suggest that fiscal consolidations in individual euro area countries, especially the larger ones, can reduce aggregate demand in others. The magnitude of cross-country spillovers has strengthened with the economic integration and introduction of a single currency. Also, spillovers can be larger if fiscal consolidations are implemented in downturns. Therefore, individual euro area countries should consider fiscal measures implemented in other members as well as the state of the economy when implementing domestic policies.”

For previous IMF work on negative demand spillovers in the euro area, see my VoxEU blog and Larry Elliott’s column.

Figure 1. Impact on Eurozone output from wage moderation, quantitative easing and structural