The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• Why holiday rentals are winning the war for Europe’s city centres. Residents of tourist hotspots have long demanded that Airbnb-style letting platforms be banned. But booking numbers in Europe — and housing costs — are still rising – FT
• Recent surges in house prices have affected many — but not all — countries in the European Union – Our World in Data

Working papers and conferences:

• Macroprudential and monetary policy tightening: more than a double whammy? – BIS
• Selected Macroeconomic and Social Aspects of Housing Affordability – Intereconomics
• Housing Supply and Housing Affordability – NBER
• Does Homeownership Matter? The Long-Term Consequences of Losing a House during the Great Recession – NBER
• Reexamining Lackluster Productivity Growth in Construction – Regional Science and Urban Economics
• Credit supply, housing demand, and rising home prices. A change in veteran home loans can help explain home price dynamics – Minneapolis Fed
• Industrical Organization of Housing Markets, Fall 2025 – NBER

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Could Trump’s tariffs lead to another house price boom in Australia? Sharemarket volatility and fear of recession can scare property investors, but lower borrowing rates may push up home values – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australia’s looming election brings housing crisis into focus – BBC
• [Australia] Election cons will fuel higher house prices and debt – Financial Review
• [Australia] The housing policies of both major parties are bad for Australia’s aspiring homebuyers. The plans would exacerbate the problem they say they are trying to solve – rising property prices – The Guardian
• [Australia] Leaders brush off warnings from economists that duelling housing policies will drive up prices in Australia. Neither Anthony Albanese nor Peter Dutton say they want house prices to fall, as experts warn new promises could worsen affordability crisis – The Guardian
• [Australia] Home ownership is slipping out of reach for many Australians. Will the major parties’ promises make a difference? Neither Labor nor the Coalition’s policies will solve the housing crisis. At least they are competing over who can get the most homes built – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australia does not have enough tradies to fulfill Labor’s housing promise, experts say. Construction industry already faces shortfall of 80,000 workers as government vows to build 250,000 homes a year for four years – The Guardian
• [Australia] Why is it so hard for everyone to have a house in Australia? – The Conversation
• [Australia] Liberals want house prices to grow slower than wages – Financial Review
• [Australia] Not enough houses are being built in Australia, and Labor has promised 1.2m more. Here’s what needs to happen. ABS data shows current rates of construction unlikely to meet government’s five-year Housing Accord target – or estimates of demand – The Guardian
• [Australia] Why working hard no longer buys you a home in Australia. We need to end the federalism disconnect and enable states to strip away their own government-imposed costs on new housing. – Financial Review
• [Australia] Australia’s housing policy looks to fix symptom, not cause – Oxford Economics  
• [Australia] Excuse my cynicism, but after 25 years of the same housing policies, could Australian leaders try something else? First homeowners’ grants have long been the go-to policy by state and federal governments. And yet here we are in 2025 with a worsening housing affordability crisis – The Guardian
• [Australia] How Australia’s Housing Market Became So Out of Reach. Ballooning property prices and rents are causing serious housing affordability problems in Australia. So how bad is it? And how did it get to this point? – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Adelaide becomes fifth Australian capital where median house value exceeds $1m. Across Australia, home prices grew at slowest rate in two years and unit prices fell in March, Domain says – The Guardian
• [Australia] Half of Australian landlords sell their investments after 2 years, adding to renters’ insecurity – The Conversation
• [New Zealand] House prices down, listings up: Why Real Estate Institute is feeling positive – RNZ

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Canadians Are Cashing Out Their American Vacation Homes. Political uncertainty, coupled with a weak Canadian dollar, is driving owners to sell properties they’ve had for decades – Wall Street Journal
• [Canada] Stressed and Sidelined Homebuyers Start to Strain Canada Economy – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Housing starts for March 2025 – CMHC
• [Canada] Canada: Housing prices continue to fall in March – National Bank of Canada
• [India] Q1 home sales dip 19%, less than 1 lakh residential units sold in Jan-March. Against the backdrop of worsening geopolitical concerns that can deeply impact the domestic job market, sales fell in all key residential markets except Bengaluru and Chennai – Business Standard
• [Ireland] House prices now nearly 20% higher than at peak of pre-crash property bubble in 2007. Some 3,245 dwellings were purchased in February, down 14 per cent from January, CSO says – The Irish Times
• [Singapore] Singapore Home Sales Cool as Tariffs Threaten Market Rally – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Barclays joins other lenders to cut mortgage rate below 4%. Brokers warn some lenders might be slow to pass on lower prices due to uncertainty around trade policy – FT
• [United Kingdom] Tariff turbulence: Our first thoughts on what this means for the UK housing market – Savills
• [United Kingdom] The UK’s Housing Affordability Crisis is Easing. It may not feel like it, but houses in the UK are steadily becoming more affordable. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK property asking prices up 1.3% on year, Rightmove says – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] London Property Faces Hit From Trade War, Rightmove Says – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rose by most in over two years in February, official data shows – Reuters

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Revealed: The ZIP Codes Where Home Prices Have Increased the Most Since 2024 – Realtor.com
• Stubbornly High Mortgage Rates Thwart the Crucial Home-Selling Season. Mortgage rates stayed flat while stock-market volatility and recession fears threaten the housing market – Wall Street Journal
• Mortgage Rates Remain Steady—but Home Shoppers Will Have To Navigate a Lot of Volatility – Realtor.com
• How Market Volatility Can Affect Homeowners and House Hunters – Wall Street Journal
• Homeowners Have Been Waiting Years To Sell—but Feel ‘Locked In’ by Mortgage Rates – Realtor.com
• Home prices are dropping in some cities. See what it’s like in your neighborhood. – Washington Post
• The 10 ZIP Codes Where Home Prices Have Fallen the Most Since 2024—Including a Pricey Florida Hot Spot – Realtor.com
• Survey: 81% of Potential Sellers Think They Will Get Their Asking Price or More This Year – Realtor.com
• The Florida housing market is so weak that this giant builder is cutting prices. KB Home CEO Jeffrey Mezger says the start of the housing market’s 2025 spring selling season is ‘more muted’ than usual. – Fast Company
• Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) – Fannie Mae
• The Coachella Effect! Home Prices in Festival Hot Spot Cities Have Nearly Doubled in Under 10 Years – Realtor.com
• Washington lawmakers clash over rent cap proposal – Axios

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Why America Should Sprawl. The word has become an epithet for garish, reckless growth — but to fix the housing crisis, the country needs more of it. – New York Times
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 – Calculated Risk
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March – Calculated Risk
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March – Calculated Risk
• Building Material Prices Continue to Grow at Slower Pace – NAHB
• Housing market inventory is rising just about everywhere—just look at this map. National active housing inventory for sale is up 28.5% year-over-year. It’s even starting to rise in the Midwest and Northeast. – Fast Company
• Where Do Builders and Remodelers Buy Building Products? – NAHB
• Permits Pullback in February 2025 – NAHB
• Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different – Calculated Risk
• Despite Exemptions and Delays, Tariffs are Already Affecting Builders – NAHB
• Build Homes on Federal Land – New York Times
• Understanding the housing supply gap: What every real estate agent needs to know – Realtor.com
• Zillow’s bold move to confront off-market housing inventory. Zillow just banned home listings from appearing on its site if they’re first listed for sale in private networks more than 24 hours before appearing on the MLS. – Fast Company
• Housing Supply Frameworks Act Would Break Down Barriers to Housing Development – National Association of Realtors
• Builder Confidence Levels Indicate Slow Start for Spring Housing Season – NAHB
• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March – Calculated Risk
• Housing Starts Decline Amid Economic Uncertainty – NAHB
• America’s housing shortage by the numbers – The Hill

On impact of tariffs on housing:

• From tariffs to tightness: What’s happening in the US housing market? – JP Morgan
• The Surprising Impact That Trump’s Tariffs Will Have on Luxury Real Estate – Realtor.com
• Trump’s Tariffs on China Now Total 145%—and Beijing’s Retaliation Could Hit U.S. Homebuyers – Realtor.com
• How to Tell What Your Home Will Be Worth in a Trade War. These four metrics can provide clues about how the housing market is reacting to higher tariffs – Wall Street Journal
• Wealthy Buyers Are Backing Out of Multimillion-Dollar Home Deals. President Trump’s trade war and stock market chaos have put the once unshakable high-end home market on ice – Wall Street Journal
• Apartment Developers Who Overbuilt Luck Out With Tariffs. The multifamily industry now can pause most construction ahead of potential tariffs on building materials – Wall Street Journal
• This Surprising State Is Most Reliant on Imports—What Tariffs Could Mean for Its Housing Market – Realtor.com

On other developments:    

• Uncertainty looms after a more stable D.C.-area housing market in 2024. “Last year was a whole different universe.” – Washington Post
• Housing market affordability is so stretched that home turnover hits a 40-year low  . When adjusting for U.S. population size, U.S. existing home sales are hovering around four decade lows. – Fast Company
• A Growing Share of New Yorkers Are Set to Receive — Not Buy — Their Homes. About a quarter of all Manhattan home sales in 2024 involved a trust, a preferred tool for passing on wealth. – Bloomberg
• Just One-Third of 30-Year-Olds Own a Home Today—as Adults Delay Major Life Milestones – Realtor.com
• Housing affordability issues show few signs of easing – The Hill
• Who’s to Blame for America’s Housing Crisis? Readers respond to our March 2025 cover story and more. – The Atlantic
• Immigrants, Housing Wealth, and Local Government Finances. In addition to the $1.7 trillion in directly paid property taxes as property owners, immigrants also generated $513 billion in taxes as renters and another $1.1 trillion through their positive effects on property values in their roles as consumers. – Cato Institute 
• Another reason housing in Texas is cheap
• What we’ve been reading: urbanism, science, tech, aesthetics and more … – The Works in Progress Newsletter
• Average Property Tax Amount on Single-Family Homes Up 2.7 Percent Across U.S. in 2024 – ATTOM
• Democrats alarmed over upheaval at housing regulator, fearing instability. Supporters say Fannie and Freddie provide an anchor for a market suffering under elevated interest rates and a shortage of affordable residences. – Politico

On cross-country:

• House prices and rents went up in Q4 2024 – Eurostat
• When investors move in: new dynamics in European housing markets – ECB
• Public Housing Is the Only Cure for Europe’s Housing Crisis. Throughout Europe, states have spent decades running down the structures of public investment and planning that once made housing accessible for working-class people. A recharged model of public housing is essential to address the resulting crisis. – Jacobin

Working papers and conferences:

• Asylum Seekers and the Rise in Homelessness – NBER
• Sorting to Expensive Cities – NBER
• Revisiting housing asset pricing: uncertainty and business-cycle factors in US state-level housing markets – IDEAS
• Affordable housing, unaffordable credit? Concentration and high-cost lending for manufactured homes – BIS
• Homeowners care about inflation, renters less so – VoxEU
• Call for papers: PSE 2025 Conference – Housing affordability: what is new? – Institute of Public Finance

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Election 2025: Evaluating the housing policies – Grattan Institute
• [Australia] Market chaos threatens housing recovery: analysts – Financial Review
• [Australia] A grab bag of campaign housing policies. But will they fix the affordability crisis beyond the election? – The Conversation
• [Australia] Australia’s median home value has increased by about $230,000 in past five years, data shows. House prices have jumped 39.1% in the five years to March largely due to demand-supply imbalances, CoreLogic says – The Guardian
• [Australia] Housing affordability is a problem for Australian foreign policy. A massive mortgage reduces our willingness to take risks, and that can include anything from travel to investing overseas. – Lowy Institute

On other countries:  

• [Argentina] Argentina’s zombie mortgage market is coming back to life – Reuters
• [Canada] Assessing the British Columbia Government’s Initiatives to Make Housing More Affordable – Fraser Institute
• [Canada] ‘Deeply disappointed’: Ontario ministers warn of rising housing costs in U.S. due to softwood lumber duties – Bloomberg
• [Germany] House prices in city centers fall more sharply than in other neighborhoods – KIEL
• [Ireland] House prices in Ireland continue to rise as shortage drives demand higher. Sherry FitzGerald says second-hand home prices rose 2.3% between January and March – The Irish Times
• [Mauritius] Mauritius (National) Property Price Index: Houses and Apartments – Global Property Guide
• [Spain] Improving housing Crisis del alquiler en Europa: las grandes ciudades españolas lideran las subidas de los precios de habitaciones y estudios. La crisis de los alquileres se ha extendido por toda Europa pero en ningún lugar los precios suben tanto como en grandes ciudades españolas como Madrid, Barcelona o Valencia – El Mundo
• [Spain] Spain tackles housing ‘social emergency’ as rents double in a decade – BBC
• [Spain] Thousands in Spain join nationwide march to protest against housing crisis. Organisers say 150,000 joined protest in Madrid urging the government to ‘end the housing racket’ and to demand access to affordable housing – The Guardian
• [Spain] US buyers pay highest prices to snap up Spanish property – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Should young people raid their pensions to buy a property? Allowing Gen Z early access to retirement savings is not going to build more houses – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK mortgages: warning over big fees as homebuying season arrives. The sums lenders charge to secure the best rates have risen in the past five years – and can make a loan much more expensive – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] How looser affordability rules may widen home ownership in the UK. Mortgage lenders encouraged by regulator to loosen affordability tests so would-be homebuyers can borrow more – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Mortgage payment shock adds to strain on UK consumers. Rate increase comes at a time when borrowers are already having to tighten their belts – FT
• [United Kingdom] ‘Completely disproportionate’: UK tenants feel the bite of ‘pet rent’. Many pet-owning renters are asked to pay surcharges – but the upcoming renters reform bill will require landlords to reconsider their stance – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall as market feels tax break hangover – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices slide after rush to beat stamp duty changes. Average price fell by 0.5% in March to £296,699, the steepest decline since March last year, Halifax says – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall unexpectedly in March. The 0.5% contraction according to Halifax contrasts with economists’ bets of a 0.1% rise – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK Housing Market Risks Being Derailed by Trade War, RICS Says – Bloomberg

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool – Calculated Risk
• Housing Finance Watch (Week 14, 2025) – AEI
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• Why the US mortgage market is addicted to big government. Government guarantees on securitised home loans make them generally low risk — but Trump’s policymaking raises concerns – FT
• Event: Mortgage Giants at a Crossroads: Would Re-Privatization of Freddie & Fannie Help or Hurt Housing? On April 17 – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Refinancing Continues to Drive Mortgage Activity in March – NAHB  
• US home price insights – April 2025 – Cotality

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Housing market power shift: 7 states where buyers are gaining leverage. ResiClub analyzed end of March 2025 housing inventory data just released from Realtor.com. Here’s what it shows. – Fast Company
• March 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• Homebuilders got a bit of a break from Trump’s tariffs, but the housing market could still suffer. Even as lumber and other building materials were exempted from tariffs, market uncertainty could cause buyers and sellers to rethink their plans. – Yahoo Finance
• 58 housing markets where inventory has spiked, and homebuyers have gained power. Among the nation’s 200 largest housing markets, these 58 metro areas now have active inventory at or above 2019 pre-pandemic levels. – Fast Company
• Almost Half of the Owner-Occupied Homes Built Before 1980 – NAHB
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March – Calculated Risk
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 – Calculated Risk
• US houses are shrinking as inflation pushes ‘McMansions’ out of reach. Even in Texas, the American dream of home ownership is being downsized because of an affordability crisis – FT
• The Case for Single-Stair Buildings. How a Code Reform Could Make Housing More Affordable—Without Sacrificing Safety – City of Yes
• How DC densified. Washington, DC, has avoided the worst price rises that have plagued other American cities. Arlington might be the reason. – The Works in Progress Newsletter
• Remodeling Market Sentiment Down in First Quarter – NAHB

On impact of tariffs on housing:

• Trump Pauses Tariffs on Most Countries for 90 Days, Sending Stocks Soaring and Relieving Pressure on Housing Market – Realtor.com
• Trump’s Tariffs Are Expected To Raise New-Home Costs by $9,200—and These States Will Feel the Most Pain – Realtor.com
• Tarek El Moussa Says Homebuilders and First-Time Buyers Will Be Hit Hardest by Trump’s Tariffs – Realtor.com
• Trump’s Tariffs Will Affect Homebuilding—but Mortgage Rates Inch Down Another Week – Realtor.com
• Mortgage rates sink on Trump tariffs, but other costs may deter buyers – Axios
• Will tariffs affect mortgage rates? What to know about the housing market. Experts say it’s not immediately clear how President Trump’s new tariffs will affect borrowers, but building costs might rise and volatility may follow. – Washington Post
• Trump’s Trade Wars Are Having a Very Unexpected Effect on Housing. But Not Where You Think. It’s the kind of bold federal plan that progressive Americans can only dream about. – Slate
• Tariffs Threaten to Push US Home Insurance Rates Even Higher – Bloomberg
• Why China Tariffs Are Bad News for US Housing Market – Newsweek
• Warren to Mortgage Bankers Association: Trump’s Trade War is Driving Up Housing Costs Amidst Housing Affordability Crisis – US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs
• What Trump’s Tariffs Mean for Mortgage Rates – Time
• What a Recession Could Mean for the Housing Market – Realtor.com

On other developments:    

• Americans Have $35 Trillion in Housing Wealth—and It’s Costing Them. Surging home equity is all the more important in a declining stock market. But it’s come with rising property taxes and higher hurdles for borrowing. – Wall Street Journal
• Housing Agency Aims to Relocate Its DC Headquarters. The US Department of Housing and Urban Development intends to leave its aging Brutalist building in Washington, DC. – Bloomberg
• Tariffs and Car Buying: The New, Unexpected Barrier to Homeownership – Realtor.com
• In 15 Years, 80,000 Homes in the New York Area May Be Lost to Flooding. The metro region’s housing shortage is acute. But by 2040, dozens of neighborhoods and suburbs are likely to have lost thousands of homes to floods, a new report found. – New York Times
• How Climate Change Could Make Homes Disappear. In the next 15 years, the New York area could lose more than 80,000 homes to floods, worsening the housing shortage, according to a new report. – New York Times
• Will the U.S. Housing Crisis Be Exploited for a Massive Public Lands Sell-Off? Some politicians are using the nation’s housing affordability problems as a pretense to sell off public lands—an extreme agenda that puts America’s treasured lands and waters at risk without substantively addressing housing needs. A new initiative from the Trump administration publicly promises restraint, while specific proposals from Capitol Hill tell a different story. – Center for American Progress

On cross-country:

• The housing crisis deepens in developed countries. The housing crisis worsens as property prices rise and incomes stagnate, affecting affordability and economic well-being throughout developed nations. – GIS

Working papers and conferences:

• Concentration in Mortgage Markets: GSE Exposure and Risk-Taking in Uncertain Times – Philadelphia Fed
• Not all housing cycles are created equal: Macroeconomic consequences of housing booms – VoxEU
• The impact of rent controls: Lessons from Catalonia – VoxEU
• The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates on Housing Market Dynamics – SSRN
• Housing Policy for the New Paradigm: Lessons Learned from the World Bank Disaster Recovery Projects – SSRN

On China:

• Estate agents in China are trying everything to sell flats. You can place your deposit in bushels of wheat or strings of garlic – The Economist
• Property sales at Chinese developer Country Garden drop by over a third. Revenue slump highlights extent of real estate slowdown now in its fourth year – FT

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Housing is less affordable than ever. Of all the problems facing Australia today, few have worsened so rapidly in the past 25 years as housing affordability.  – Grattan
• [Australia] Housing dream turned nightmare weighs on Australian voters ahead of national election – Reuters
• [Australia] Australia’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Australia] Australia home prices hit new record in March after rate cut, CoreLogic data shows – Reuters
• [Australia] Australian house prices hit new peak as rate cut drives buyer demand. Tougher conditions for first home buyers – and renters, who are now often spending more than those with mortgages – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australian House Prices Reach Fresh High Ahead of May Election – Bloomberg
• [Australia] RBA Says Victoria Recorded Biggest Increase in Mortgage Arrears – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] New Zealand Housing Market Has Entered Upturn, CoreLogic Says – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Improving housing affordability in Canada takes a backseat – RBC
• [Canada] Trump is gunning for Canada—and Canadian homeowners in the U.S. want out. A property sell-off has already begun, and brokers expect it to get worse. – Fast Company
• [Canada] Canada’s housing market ‘not immune’ to trade war pain, economist says – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Toronto Home Sales Plunge as Trade War Hits Consumer Confidence – Bloomberg
• [Cambodia] Cambodia’s Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Germany] House prices in city centers fall more sharply than in other neighborhoods – KIEL
• [India] India’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Japan] Japan Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Norway] Norway Home Prices Rise at Slowest Pace Since Last July – Bloomberg
• [Pakistan] Pakistan’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Slovenia] Housing: Who can afford to rent in the Slovenian capital? – European Data Journalism Network
• [Spain] How Housing Speculation Created Environmental Crisis in Spain. The floods that hit Spain last year were more than just a natural disaster. They were exacerbated by housing developers who built homes in the most flood-prone areas. – Jacobin
• [Spain] Barcelona Becomes Ground Zero for Europe’s Housing Dilemma. The Spanish city’s woes mirror a broader affordable-housing crunch spreading rapidly across Europe and driving inequality. – New York Times
• [Spain] In Spain, a Race for the Last Golden Visas. The residency-by-investment program meant to stimulate the economy was so popular that Spain had to shut it down. – New York Times
• [Turkey] Turkey Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] You can’t grow an economy by crushing aspiration. Few will weep for second-home owners paying extra council tax — but the successful know when they’re not wanted – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK Mortgage Demand Eases as Time Runs Out on Tax Break – Bloomberg