The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• Why Europe’s housing crisis is taking hold. From Sweden to Spain, via the Netherlands and Greece, inadequate construction rates and excessive tourism have accentuated the housing shortage, while prices remain high. – Le Monde
• The link between housing affordability and poverty in Europe – LSE

Working papers and conferences:

• Call for Papers: Workshop on Changing Demographics and Housing Demand: Call for Papers on October 24-25 – Philadelphia Fed
• 4th Workshop on Rent Control – DIW Berlin
• The housing channel of intergenerational wealth persistence – CEPR
• How house prices respond to monetary tightening: The role of cyclical conditions – VoxEU
• Housing Speculation, GSEs, and Credit Market Spillovers – NBER
• A Housing Portfolio Channel of QE Transmission – NBER 
• Measuring Homeownership Sustainability for First-Time Homebuyers – FHFA
• The Impact of Borrower-Based Macroprudential Policies on Financial Stability, Inequality, and Housing Stock with a High-Resolution, Data-Driven Model – SSRN
• Forecasting Single Family House Prices in the US using GMDH – SSRN
• Can Higher Federal Funds Rates Control Mortgage Lending during High Inflation and High House Prices in Absence of Reserve Requirements? – SSRN   

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Mortgage Rates in US Drop for First Time Since Early February. Borrowing costs are a big hurdle for buyers, economist says. New listings are rising in sign that inventory crunch may ease – Bloomberg
• Mortgage Rates Just Dropped—but the Housing Market Got Even Better News This Week – Realtor.com
• The “Home ATM” Closed in Q4. Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was low in Q4 – Calculated Risk
• America’s rental-market mystery. And why it may deter the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates – The Economist
• The Only Force Stronger Than Polarization? Rising Home Prices. Checking Zillow is not an ideological activity. – Atlantic Council
• Lawler: Rent Trends at some Large Holders of Multifamily Properties – Calculated Risk
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February. Inventory Continues to Surge in Florida – Calculated Risk
• Housing Continues to Keep Inflation Elevated – NAHB
• How housing supply is beginning to recover: Redfin CEO – Yahoo Finance

On the US—other developments:    

• Homebuyers Get More Options as Steep Prices Lure Holdout Sellers. More owners are deciding to list their properties, an early sign that the mortgage ‘lock-in effect’ may be loosening its grip. – Bloomberg
• FACT SHEET: President Biden Announces Plan to Lower Housing Costs for Working Families – The White House
• Remarks by National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard on President Biden’s Bold Plan for Housing – The White House
• Biden’s Plan To Subsidize Homebuyers Won’t Work. The president’s laundry list of proposed tax credits would likely make the problem of high housing costs worse. – Reason
• Inside Biden’s plan to unlock the housing market’s golden handcuffs – Axios
• Yellen says Biden’s proposed housing tax credits could boost supply – Reuters
• Why Biden’s so obsessed with housing policy – Axios
• Biden’s Budget Includes Several New Housing Proposals – NAHB 
• To Fix a Housing Crisis, New York Leaders Seek to Revive a 1950s Idea. State Democrats are set to propose a series of ideas to address affordability and a lack of new homes. Some of the ideas are new. And some are very, very old. – New York Times 
• The Billionaries’ Secret Plan to Solve California’s Housing Crisis – New York Times
• The Politics of Housing: Owner/Renter Polarization. A partisan chasm is widening – Home Economics
• Housing Market Update: Supply Ticked Up in February for First Time in 8 Months – Redfin  
• California, New Jersey and Illinois Still Facing Higher Risk of Housing Market Decline – ATTOM
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February. Early Reports Suggest Sales will be up from January – Calculated Risk
• A Rising Tide Lifts All Homes? Housing Consumption Trends for Low-Income Households Since the 1980s – Minneapolis Fed
• Opinion: Inflation isn’t the real problem for the U.S. economy. The housing shortage is – Los Angeles Times
• U.S. Foreclosure Activity Continues to See an Annual Increase – ATTOM
• Examining Differences between Homeowner and Renter Wealth – NAHB
• Unleashing Manufactured Housing. The United States presently has an estimated shortage of 3–5 million housing units. – Cato Institute
• Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO. REO: lender Real Estate Owned – Calculated Risk
• Survey: Buyers and Owners Cite Concern Over Climate and Natural Disaster Risks – Realtor.com
• American dream of owning a home is dead, majority of renters say. Exclusive: most renters surveyed by Harris Poll say the areas they live in have become so unaffordable they are ‘barely livable’ – The Guardian
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024 – Calculated Risk
• Where Are the Most Expensive US Places for Property Taxes? – CoreLogic
• Climate Risks Threaten Nearly Half of All Homes in the U.S.: What Buyers and Sellers Need To Know – Realtor.com

On China:

• Shanghai housing market’s downwards trend to continue amid low demand and expectations of further price declines, brokers say. Owners selling homes will have to offer discounts of 5 to 10 per cent to make sales: brokers. ‘Most customers are just taking a wait-and-see approach,’ sales manager at property agency 5I5J says – South China Morning Post
• China ready to let some troubled property firms go bust: housing minister. Ni Hong says authorities have the arduous task of stabilising the crisis-hit real estate industry this year. Companies that are insolvent or can’t operate must fold or be restructured, Ni says – South China Morning Post
• China’s housing minister says real estate developers must go bankrupt if necessary – CNBC
• Moody’s Downgrades Major Chinese Property Developer Vanke. Moody’s has downgraded one of China’s largest housing developers’ credit rating, as woes in the country’s property sector show no sign of abating. – AFP
• Rising mortgage defaults bring more pain to Chinese households – Reuters

On other countries:  

• [Australia] First home buyers tapping super could drive up house prices – AFR
• [Australia] The ‘good old days’ for housing affordability were just four years ago – here’s why. But those days of 2020 are good only relative to now, and that’s a rather horrific thought – The Guardian
• [Australia] Sydney Faces Growing Pains as Its Housing Crisis Deepens. A New South Wales state plan to build apartments around Sydney train stations has run into local opposition. – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Trudeau Eyes Boost to Canada’s Housing Supply With New Budget – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong property agents expect more big-ticket foreclosures this year – Reuters
• [Hong Kong] Ending cooling measures no game changer for Hong Kong property market. The end of more than a decade of cooling measures for Hong Kong’s property market is welcome and has sparked a surge in new home sales. These changes must be put in proper context, though, as several other factors will be more consequential in setting the property sector’s course – South China Morning Post
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s Apartment Glut Is Set to Keep Prices Down After Tax Cut. Market must absorb inventory before values recover, agents say. Competition also likely to stifle prices even as sales rebound – Bloomberg
• [India] India’s housing market remains upbeat – Global Property Guide
• [Indonesia] Indonesia’s housing market remains stable – Global Property Guide
• [Ireland] The Irish Times view on housing supply: some progress on building new homes. While pointing to the acceleration in construction, Ministers also need to recognise the distance still to be travelled – The Irish Times
• [Spanish] Spanish house price growth bucks general eurozone trend. Despite a decline in the fourth quarter of 2023, Spanish house prices grew by an average of 4.2% over the full year. Spain goes against the trend of many eurozone countries where average house price growth was negative last year due to rising interest rates – ING
• [South Korea] South Korea’s land minister bearish on property as population ages – Reuters
• [Sweden] Swedish Home Prices Edge Up in Sign Recovery May Be Nearing – Bloomberg
• [United Arab Emirates] United Arab Emirates Residential Property Price Report: February 2024 – REIDIN
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices near 2022 peak after fifth monthly rise in a row. Halifax says prices grew by 1.7% on an annual basis with the average UK house now costing £291,699 – FT 
• [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Rise for a Fifth Month, Halifax Says. 0.4% gain in February leaves home values 1.7% higher on year. But Halifax warns of possible slowdown later in the year – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK Housing Market Achieves ‘Soft Landing’ as Prices Stabilize. RICS survey sees three-year high for properties on sale. New buyer inquiries positive for a second consecutive month – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK housing market strengthens in February, RICS survey shows – Reuters  

On cross-country:

• Global home prices set for a gentle climb in a tight market – Reuters poll – Reuters

Working papers and conferences:

• Built out cities? A new approach to measuring land use regulation – Journal of Housing Economics
• The interest rate sensitivity of house prices: international evidence on its state dependence – Swiss National Bank
• The economic impact of UNESCO World Heritage: Evidence from Italy – Regional Science and Urban Economics
• A Quantitative Model for Mapping the Consequences of Public Housing Demolitions – Philadelphia Fed
• Housing Cycle and Firm Investment: International Firm-level Evidence – Journal of Asian Economics
• The Push of Big City Prices and the Pull of Small Town Amenities – SSRN
• Interpreting the Changing Meaning of the Peri-Urban Holiday House: The Complex and Paradoxical Nature of Housing Financialisation – SSRN
• Real Estate Commissions and Homebuying – SSRN
• Residential Mobility and Life Cycle: Identifying the Role of Local Taxes – SSRN
• Jue Insight: Making Housing Affordable? The Local Effects of Relaxing Land-Use Regulation – SSRN
• Correlated Labor Market Risk and Housing Investment – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• The mortgage ‘lock-in’ effect is here to stay and home prices won’t fall for years to come, research firm says – Business Insider
• Are Investors and Interest Rates Abolishing the Dream of Homeownership? – CoreLogic
• US Home Price Insights – CoreLogic
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 6.2% Year-over-year. Austin Prices Down 11.1% from Peak Seasonally Adjusted – Calculated Risk
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below Peak. Price-to-rent index is 7.3% below recent peak – Calculated Risk
• US home prices to grind higher as cheap mortgage holders stay put: Reuters poll – Reuters
• Pending home sales drop 4.9% in January – Realtor.com
• Single-Family Construction Spending Continues to Rise – NAHB
• High Mortgage Rates Leave Biden Searching for Housing Relief. The president and his team are seeking ways to help Americans afford to rent and buy homes, as high borrowing costs dampen views of the economy. – New York Times
• US mortgage rates rise for a fourth-straight week, Freddie Mac says – Reuters
• January Consumption Contracts, While Pending Sales Retreat from Higher Mortgage Rates – Fannie Mae  
• Mortgage Activity Jumps after Falling for Three Consecutive Weeks – NAHB
• Assumable Mortgages Offer Some Buyers Affordability – Realtor.com
• ICE Mortgage Monitor: “First-Time Homebuyers Make Up Record 47% of GSE Purchase Loans” – Calculated Risk 
• Record number of cash offers show New York property is only for rich. High mortgage rates are creating a void for all but the wealthiest home buyers in the city – FT
• Single-Family Production Shows Signs of Stirring Across the Nation – NAHB
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• Home-Selling Sentiment Moves Higher Ahead of Spring Homebuying Season – Fannie Mae  

On the US—other developments:    

• Why small developers are getting squeezed out of the housing market – Noapinion
• How do Young Homebuyers Finance their Downpayments? Their source of funds falls close to home – Home Economics
• Treasury Department Announces New Efforts to Increase Housing Supply in the United States – US Treasury
• US Treasury eases rules on unspent COVID aid to boost affordable housing – Reuters 
• A frozen spring for the US housing market – FT
• Home-Mortgage Lending Near Two-Decade Low as Slump Continues Across U.S. During Fourth Quarter – ATTOM  
• Home-Buying Dreams Dashed for Typical US Family Since 2020. Most households can’t afford to buy a home in 2024 market. Affordability plunges as prices and borrowing costs surge – Bloomberg
• Developers Got Backing for Affordable Housing. Then the Neighborhood Found Out. The push from an affluent community in South Carolina to kill a plan for 60 subsidized apartments brought into public view how hard it is give low-income families access to opportunity-rich neighborhoods. – New York Times
• Why a White House Plan to Fund Office-to-Housing Conversions Isn’t Working. Citing lengthy delays and red tape, developers have been slow to tap a Biden administration program designed to finance office conversions near transit. – Bloomberg 
• U.S. Housing Is Too Expensive. Why That’s Good News for Builders. Fitch Ratings says prices in 91% of U.S. metropolitan areas were overvalued in the third quarter of 2023. – Barron’s
• Housing Supply and Quantity Supplied, Redux – Econlib
• Can income-restricted ADUs expand the affordable housing stock in Los Angeles? – Brookings
• How new apartments create opportunities for all. Market-rate rental construction in Minneapolis has freed up more affordable homes for households across the income spectrum – Minneapolis Fed
• Home Sellers Claim Warren Buffett’s Brokerage Defrauded Them. A division of Mr. Buffett’s conglomerate was added to a string of defendants in an antitrust lawsuit that alleges brokerages inflated commissions that home sellers were forced to pay. – New York Times
• Southeast Oklahoma partners seek to remove barriers to housing – Kansas City Fed
• Everything Is Getting Bigger in Texas. Plus: An interview with Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte, Minnesota lawmakers try to save Minneapolis zoning reform from excess environmental review, and the White House’s new housing supply action plan. – Reason
• A Hidden Crisis in Housing – Bloomberg 
• Black Millennials Are Half As Likely to Own a Home As White Millennials – Redfin
• Top economist Gary Shilling predicts a ‘considerable revival’ in housing activity—but it’s going to take 3 or 4 years to unfreeze the housing market – Fortune

On China:

• Chinese Insurers Warn of Debt Risks at Property Giant Vanke. At least two insurers told annuity managers to monitor risks. Vanke in fresh talks with some insurers to extend private debt – Bloomberg
• Why China’s Property Downturn Has a Silver Lining for Consumption. Some economists argue falling home prices allow families to save less and spend more. But a lack of confidence in growth may be holding back spending. – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Why rising house prices make RBA rate cuts less likely. The latest data from the housing market says supply remains weak, and prices are rising again. That will probably give the RBA a headache. – Financial Review
• [Australia] The suburbs where prices jumped more than $240k in three months – Financial Review
• [Australia] Coalition flags expanding super for housing policy amid increase in house prices. Michael Sukkar says policy may need to be revised ahead of next federal election but the ‘broad strokes’ would remain the same – The Guardian
• [Australia] Why Asian buyers’ love of Australia’s property market endures. Deteriorating affordability has left many Australians struggling in the housing market, but foreign buyers’ interest remains strong. Record migration, China’s housing crisis, Australia’s stability and Asian private wealth’s influence are driving the surge in purchases – South China Morning Post
• [Australia] Inquiry into Help to Buy scheme hears from economists on risk of higher house prices – The Australian
• [Australia] The government’s Help to Buy scheme will help but it won’t solve the housing crisis – The Conversation
• [Canada] Toronto Home Prices Increase for First Time in Seven Months. Sales fell in February and new listings were relatively flat. Lower rates later in 2024 will stoke demand, economist says – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Bank of Canada’s Macklem, ahead of budget, warns against spurring housing demand – Reuters
• [Hong Kong] Open House: Cheapest Hong Kong Luxury Housing Comes With a Major Catch. Sea Ranch is a rare example of a property development gone wrong in a city known for its sky-high house prices. Yet the project’s lack of convenience offers potential buyers rare bargains, provided they can put up with the solitude. – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] NZ House Prices Continue Soft Start to Year With Modest Gains – Bloomberg
• [Norway] Norway house prices rise for second month, defying central bank – The Business Times
• [Poland] Polish PM Tusk says govt approves 2024 mortgage payment holidays bill – Reuters
• [Spain] Madrid’s New Arrivals Stir a Toxic Political Stew. Spain’s capital has emerged as a new destination for the global elite – Bloomberg
• [Sweden] Swedish Home Prices Stall at a Higher Level Than Before Pandemic – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Tories wrestle with failure to fix Britain’s housing crisis. Mortgages for first-time buyers were at a 10-year low last year – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices post first annual increase in more than a year. Higher than expected rise in February as mortgage rates ease – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK mortgage approvals surge to highest level since October 2022. Data suggests residential house market is recovering as squeeze from higher borrowing costs eases – FT

On cross-country:

• Global house prices close to bottoming out, BIS stats show – Central Banking
• BIS residential property price statistics, Q3 2023 – BIS
• Where are Europe’s most expensive cities for renters? – The Economist

Working papers and conferences:

• Why we need a green land value tax and how to design it – VoxEU
• Mortgage Borrowing Limits and House Prices: Evidence from a Policy Change in Ireland – SSRN
• Fifty Shades of the US States: News Media Coverage and Predictability of House Prices – SSRN
• Does Affordability Status Matter in Who Wants Multifamily Housing in their Backyard? – SSRN
• The Redistribution of Housing Wealth Caused by Rent Control – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• The Housing Market Still Has Hot Spots. 10 Places Where Prices Are Soaring. – Barron’s
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January; California Home Sales Up 5.9% YoY in January – Calculated Risk
• New Construction Activity Falls in January, Led by Multi-family – Realtor.com
• Single Family Built-for-Rent Almost Doubled Since 2020. Quarterly Housing Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design – Calculated Risk
• Rents Are Cooling, but Not Everywhere – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey – Fannie Mae

On the US—other developments:    

• Opportunity Zone Housing Markets Still Tracking Along with Broader U.S. Housing Market – Los Angeles Times
• The hottest trend in U.S. cities? Changing zoning rules to allow more housing – NPR
• US unions target the housing affordability crisis as their ‘biggest issue’. Organized labor across the country is now setting its sights on housing costs as rents and mortgages continue to soar – The Guardian  
• Realtors Are in Crisis—and Home Buyers Could Be the Winners. A wave of lawsuits over fees paid to agents has put the giant trade association on the defense; ‘it got arrogant’ – Wall Street Journal
• Berkeley’s Upzoning Would Be Among Nation’s Largest. A proposal to end exclusionary zoning would allow for 100,000 more homes in Berkeley’s neighborhoods. – The Discourse Lounge
• Investor home purchases halved since the height of the pandemic housing boom. Investors purchased 50% fewer homes in Q4 2023 compared to Q4 2021, according to the latest Redfin data. – Fast Company
• Did Wall Street kill the American Dream of homeownership? It depends on where you live – Fortune 
• The Great Compression. Thanks to soaring housing prices, the era of the 400-square-foot subdivision house is upon us. – New York Times
• The high cost of promoting homeownership. It’s individually rational, but collectively dysfunctional – Slow Boring
• New Single-Family Home Size Moves Lower – NAHB
• Good Times, Bad Times: Eviction Edition. Plus: Voters in Massachusetts reject state-mandated upzonings, Florida localities rebel against a surprisingly effective YIMBY reform, and lawsuits target missing middle housing in Virginia. – Reason

On China:

• China seen cutting mortgage reference rate for first time since June – Reuters
• China cuts mortgage-linked lending rate by record amount to aid property market. Five-year loan prime rate reduction unlikely to offer imminent relief to flagging home sales, analysts say – FT
• China’s Property Crisis: Inside a Ghost Town of Abandoned Mansions – Wall Street Journal

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Trudeau’s welcome mat for immigrants wears thin amid Canada housing crunch – Reuters
• [France] Macron has a big housing headache. Olympics are making it worse. The French government has made tackling the housing crisis a priority in an attempt to improve living conditions for the middle class. – Politico
• [Germany] German house prices are in freefall – Global Property Guide
• [Israel] How Israel turned homeowners into YIMBYs. Homeowners are often the biggest opponents of building new homes. An Israeli reform reversed this by making homeowners the main beneficiaries of development. – Work in Progress
• [Italy] Italy’s sluggish housing market – Global Property Guide
• [Ireland] Mortgage holders paying up to €7,292 in extra charges per year by not switching. Online broker doddl.ie has urged mortgage holders to shop around for better rates – The Irish Times
• [Ireland] Ireland’s Biggest Private Residential Landlord Avoids Investor Takeover. Irish Residential key to country resolving its housing crisis. Vision Capital Corp. had tried to overthrow the board – Bloomberg
• [Ireland] Governments used to boast about higher house prices – not anymore. Increasing property values were once seen as reflective of a strong economy and therefore trumpeted by incumbent administrations – The Irish Times
• [Germany] Berlin’s Housing Slump Is Over as Shortage Lures Investors. The prospect of higher rents in the German capital is countering the downward pull of financing costs – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] How likely is a recovery in the UK housing market? Falling mortgage rates and an uptick in agreed sales offer encouragement. But economic risks remain – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK to Toughen Rules on Short-Term Lets to Tackle ‘Hollowing Out’ – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Government to outline new curbs on short-term lets in England. Local residents being pushed out of tourist hotspots prompts response – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK Home Asking Prices Rise as Mortgage Relief Spurs Activity. Rightmove says price of new listings now higher than year ago. Findings are further evidence of market recovering momentum – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Mortgage lending to older UK borrowers slumps. Higher interest rates hit the market for the over-55s – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK Homeowners Are Proving More Resilient Than Once Feared. Affordability tests help ensure mortgage market’s resilience. Those re-mortgaging benefit from falling borrowing costs – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Jeremy Hunt draws up plans for 99% mortgage scheme. UK chancellor’s move aims to reassure voters that Conservatives represent the interests of homeowners – FT
• [United Kingdom] Everything about Cambridge is booming — except housing supply. The population has been rising as jobs in biotech and pharma proliferate but the city struggles to build enough homes – FT

On cross-country:

• ‘Rent is too damn high!’ Europe’s growing housing crisis – Politico

Working papers and conferences:

• 4th Workshop on Rent Control on June 20 and 21 – DIW Berlin
• The effect of new housing supply in structural models: a forecasting performance evaluation – European Central Bank
• Direct Rental Assistance: Returning to the Roots of Housing Allowances – SSRN
• Behavioral Lock-In: Aggregate Implications of Reference Dependence in the Housing Market – SSRN
• Decomposing Fire Sale Discounts in Housing Markets – SSRN
• The Effect of New Housing Supply in Structural Models: A Forecasting Performance Evaluation – SSRN
• House of Cards? Perspectives on European Housing – SSRN
• Intertemporal Risk-Return Relationship in Housing Markets: International Evidence – SSRN
• Does Political Partisanship Affect Housing Supply? Evidence from Us Cities – SSRN
• Monetary Policy Shocks And Local Housing Markets – SSRN
• Income Inequality, Mortgage Debt and House Prices – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Warren Urges Powell to Cut Rates to Help Alleviate Housing Costs. Democratic senators write letter to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. High interest rates crimp housing supply, drive up rents – Bloomberg
• Mortgage Rates in US to Snap Three-Year Streak of Gains, Survey Shows. Rate on a 30-year, fixed mortgage is expected to fall to 5.5%. For offices, some expect demand to start reaching a bottom. – Bloomberg
• US Home-Price Growth Slows as High Rates Squeeze Demand. Gains in November eased after borrowing costs hit a high. Buyers are facing prices that are 69% above a 2006 peak – Bloomberg
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.1% year-over-year in November. FHFA: House Prices “Up 6.6 Percent from Last Year” – Calculated Risk
• New Home Sales Bounce Back in December on Lower Mortgage Rates – NAHB
• Housing is now unaffordable for a record half of all U.S. renters, study finds – NPR
• All-Cash Share of New Home Sales Remains Elevated in 2023 – NAHB
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 6.6% Year-over-year. Austin Prices Down 12.4% from Peak Seasonally Adjusted – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

• Brutal Winter Across America Is Keeping the Housing Market on Ice. Even as mortgage rates drop, storms and subzero temperatures have kept a lot of potential buyers on the sideline – Wall Street Journal
• The One Part of the Housing Market That’s Growing. As owners remain reluctant to put their properties on the market, developers are rushing to build new homes to meet demand. – New York Times
• Home Selling Profits Drop in 2023 for First Time in Over a Decade Amid Modest Price Gains – ATTOM
• Where Can Gen Z Buy a Home? Older members of the generation are early in their careers, and they face increases in inflation, home prices and interest rates. – New York Times and Point2
• Amid a Housing Crunch, Religious Groups Unlock Land to Build Homes. Faith-based organizations are unlocking their real estate to develop affordable housing, but they face challenges from reluctant local residents, wary lenders and strict zoning laws. – New York Times
• Is Now a Good Time to Buy? – Freddie Mac
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Increased Slightly, Multi-family Unchanged in December. CoreLogic: “Home Loan Performance Remains Strong” – Calculated Risk
• Can You Afford a Home in America’s Top Emerging Housing Market? – Realtor.com
• ‘We’re at a Turning Point’: Is the Housing Market Finally Thawing—or Is Another Deep Freeze To Come? – Realtor.com

On China:

• China’s Guangzhou first to completely ease purchase limit on large homes – Reuters
• Evergrande Set for Liquidation as China Property Crisis Drags On. Developer will end up in new management, judge says in order. Trading in the stock halted after 21% tumble on Monday – Bloomberg
• Chinese developer Evergrande ordered to be wound up by Hong Kong court. Indebted property group fails to agree restructuring plan with creditors – FT 
• Evergrande is the teetering domino that can topple its real estate peers. Property prices in China could take yet another hit from deconstruction of the indebted developer – FT
• China’s Deflation Pressures Seen Persisting Through Mid-2024. Economists also expect home prices will fall m/m until 3Q. 2024 GDP growth expected at 4.6% y/y, up from earlier estimate – Bloomberg
• Evergrande’s liquidation is a new low in China’s property crisis. A judge in Hong Kong surprises the mainland – The Economist
• China’s Economy Czar Presses Cities on Funding for Real Estate. Property sector has been a major drag on China’s economy. He Lifeng calls on cities to make timely moves on financing – Bloomberg
• China Home Sales Slump Persists After Evergrande Liquidation. China Jan new homes sales record low in recent years. Local gov ramped up support by drafting white list projects – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Canada] How will the Bank of Canada’s rate hold impact the housing market? – Bloomberg
• [Georgia] Gross rental yields in Georgia: Tbilisi and Batumi – Global Property Guide
• [Germany] Gross rental yields in Germany: Berlin and 7 other cities – Global Property Guide
• [Japan] Gross rental yields in Japan: Tokyo and 7 other cities – Global Property Guide
• [Netherlands] Gross rental yields in Netherlands: Amsterdam and 3 other cities – Global Property Guide
• [New Zealand] Upzoning New Zealand. How a small country started building a lot of homes – Work in Progress
• [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Rise at Slower Pace, CoreLogic Says – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Reliable UK Mortgage Payers Deliver Juiciest Debt Returns Since 2009. Mortgage delinquincies seen at less than 1.3% in 2023. Residential mortgage-backed notes delivered over 6% last year – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Five of the best books about the UK housing crisis. From costs to quality, housing can make you despair. Our best five books explain the politics behind the problems – and the solutions – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] London’s Sky-High Home Prices Are Most Affordable in Decade. Zoopla data shows property in the capital underperforming UK. London homes are still the most expensive in Britain – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise more than expected in January, says Nationwide. Month-on-month increase of 0.7% is fastest pace since October as mortgage rates ease – FT

On cross-country:

• Chinese property developers shrivel up in Australia, New Zealand but are they ‘hibernating’ for better times? Many Chinese developers in Australia and New Zealand have closed or scaled back, amid a property crisis in China, weak demand and higher construction costs. Chinese property development in Australasia soared around 2013 at the height of China’s ‘go out policy’ that prompted Chinese firms and citizens to seek overseas investments – South China Morning Post

Working papers and conferences:

• Racial and ethnic differences in the financial returns to home purchases – Real Estate Economics
• Gender, Stress, and Job Performance: Agents in the Resale Housing Market – SSRN
• Investors in Housing Markets: Comparing Two Booms – SSRN
• Report on the Potential Impacts of Property Tax Abatement on Rental Housing Construction in Boston – SSRN
• The Impact of COVID-19 on Real Estate Markets in Germany – SSRN
• Mortgages, House Prices, and Business Cycle Dynamic: A Medium-Run Exploration Using the Continuous Wavelet Transform – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• US home prices forecast to climb as mortgage rates fall to 6.3% in 2024 – Goldman Sachs
• 2023 was slowest year for US home sales in nearly 30 years as high mortgage rates frustrated buyers – Quartz
• Mortgage Rates Expected to Dip Below 6 Percent in 2024, Boosting Home Sales – Fannie Mae
• December Existing Home Sales: Higher Mortgage Rates Pulled Supply And Sales Lower in 2023. Existing home sales dropped again in December, ending the year at 4.09 million, the lowest level in nearly 30 years – Zillow
• Is This Really ‘the Worst Time to Buy a Home’? Maybe — but it’s not a terrible time to rent. – New York Times
• Redfin Reports Pending Home Sales Rose 4% in December—Biggest Jump in Over Two Years – Redfin
• For Property Investors, the Price of Homes Is Still Not Right. Higher interest rates, record home prices are cited for pullback in buying – Wall Street Journal
• Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – Freddie Mac
• 1.54 million Total Housing Completions in 2023 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2007
• Completions Will Likely Increase Further in 2024 – Calculated Risk
• Finally, America’s Home Inventory Is Rising: Here’s Where It’s Grown the Most – Realtor.com
• Redfin Home Price Index: Prices Rose 0.4% in December—the Smallest Increase in Six Months – Redfin

On the US—other developments:    

• America’s Housing Rebound. Despite years of the highest real mortgage interest rates in almost two decades, construction and renovation spending have been holding steady, if not accelerating outright. – The Overshoot
• The Economy Is Starting to Look Normal—Housing Isn’t. Cooling inflation, a moderating job market and steady growth are making the economy look more familiar. But housing is a complete mess. – Wall Street Journal
• 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December; California Home Sales Down 7.1% YoY in December – Calculated Risk
• Boomers won’t part with their homes, and that’s a problem for young families – CNN 
• More than 43 million US households were cost burdened in 2022 – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Biden’s New Gift to the Housing Lobby. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac raise their loan-guarantee limits to new heights. – Wall Street Journal
• Record Number of Office-to-Apartment Conversions Planned in 2024. Washington, New York and Dallas lead the trend among US cities. Housing demand, office vacancies drive conversions: RentCafe – Bloomberg
• Home Price-to-Income Ratio Reaches Record High – Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Affordable Housing Gets Boost in Congressional Tax Reform Proposal. The bipartisan tax deal would raise allocations for the Low Income Housing Tax Credit, a critical tool for encouraging new home construction. – Bloomberg
• To meet today’s critical housing challenges, HUD needs a broader, bolder vision – Brookings
• Builders’ Top Challenges for 2024 – NAHB
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December – Calculated Risk 

On China:

• Desperate Chinese Property Developers Resort to Bizarre Marketing Tactics. The country’s real-estate slump is getting worse—and looks set to drag on for years – Wall Street Journal

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Australian houses are less affordable than they have been in decades. In spite of rising borrowing costs, prices have stayed stubbornly resilient – The Economist
• [Brazil] How to Buy Property in Brazil as a Foreigner – Global Property Guide
• [Canada] Home price declines in big cities drag down Teranet-National Bank index – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canada Caps Foreign Student Visas Amid Housing Shortage. Immigration Minister Marc Miller unveils new limits on permits. Number of foreign students tripled to 1 million over 10 years – Bloomberg
• [Egypt] How to Buy Property in Egypt as a Foreigner – Global Property Guide
• [Egypt] Gross rental yields in Egypt: Cairo and Alexandria – Global Property Guide
• [Ireland] Irish house prices close to or at peak, estate agents say. An SCSI report predicts house prices will rise by just 1 per cent this year – The Irish Times
• [Netherlands] The Netherlands’ housing market downturn continues – Global Property Guide
• [New Zealand] RBNZ Proposes Looser Low-Deposit Home Loan Rules With New Tool – Bloomberg
• [Spain] How to Buy Property in Spain as a Foreigner – Global Property Guide
• [Spain] Deteriorating affordability will dampen Spanish house price growth –ING
• [Turkey] Turkey’s strong house price growth is just an illusion – Global Property Guide 
• [United Kingdom] Global investors could spark UK housebuilding boom. Institutional backers attracted by high rental demand and low volatility of residential property market – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK Home Sellers Made £100,000 Profit Per Deal Even In Tough Year. Average seller made about 9% less profit than in 2022. Declining mortgage rates could help turn the tide this year – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Ministers’ 99% mortgage idea could overheat UK housing market, say experts. Scheme to support first-time buyers that would appeal to young voters reportedly being considered by No 10 – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Housing ombudsman in England calls to re-establish link between housing and health – The Guardian