The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• BIS residential property price statistics, Q2 2024 – BIS
• Home prices set to rise in Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia in 2025 – Yahoo News 

Working papers and conferences:

• Why Has Construction Productivity Stagnated? The Role of Land-Use Regulation – NBER
• The Amplifying Effect of Spatial Planning Restrictions on House Prices and Rents – SSRN
• Energy Price Shock and Housing Market Dynamics: Evidence from Germany – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• US Housing Outlook – Apollo
• Zillow’s Housing Market Predictions for 2025. Zillow predicts more buyers will come out ahead in a bumpy 2025, but unpredictable mortgage rates cloud the picture – Zillow
• Preliminary 2025 Housing Forecasts – Calculated Risk
• 5 housing markets to watch in 2025. The Sun Belt continues to draw the most new residents — and investments – Quartz
• Housing struggles to stave off headwinds. The November Economics Insider deep dives into the impact of high mortgage rates and home prices on the housing market. While some near-term respite is likely, long-term hurdles will remain. – Deloitte
• Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – Freddie Mac
• Seventh Straight Month of Yearly Deceleration in Home Prices – NAHB
• S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index—Home Prices Up 3.9% in September – Realtor.com
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in September – Calculated Risk
• US monthly house prices rise strongly in September – Reuters
• Housing market shift: Where home prices are actually falling. Some regional housing markets in Texas, Florida, and Louisiana, are experiencing mild home price corrections. – Fast Company
• US Home-Purchase Applications Rise to Highest Since February – Bloomberg
• Best Quarter for Multifamily Missing Middle Construction in 17 Years – NAHB
• Single-Family Home Size Nearing Turning Point? – NAHB
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales – Calculated Risk
• October 2024 Rental Report: Rents Continue to Fall, With More New Units Expected in 2025 – Realtor.com
• New Home Sales Decrease Sharply to 610,000 Annual Rate in October. Median New Home Price is Down 5% from the Peak due to Change in Mix – Calculated Risk
• October New Home Sales Down on Higher Rates – NAHB
• Make it count: Measuring our housing supply shortage – Brookings
• New-Home Sales Cool Down in October – Realtor.com
• Small Gain for Multifamily Built-for-Sale Construction – NAHB
• Apartment Completions Rise Resulting in Slower Absorption Rates – NAHB

On the US—other developments:    

• N.Y.C. Housing Plan Moves Forward With an Unexpected $5 Billion Boost. A City Council committee passed a major proposal that would ease restrictions on housing growth in New York. The full Council is likely to approve it next month. – New York Times
• Brooklyn Needs Housing. She Has a Vacant Lot. Why Can’t She Build? A property owner’s effort to develop an apartment building in a popular neighborhood has been stymied for years. She may just give up. – New York Times
• HUD’s Authority Rests on a House of Cards. Where in the Constitution is there any authority to govern “housing and urban development”? – Wall Street Journal
• The Enigma of the Slum in Postwar America – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• The Future of Homebuilding: Domestic Migration Is Driving the Housing Market – Realtor.com
• Could Donald Trump crush the US property market? – Financial Review
• How the Trump administration might affect D.C.’s housing market – Axios
• A Decade of Soaring Home Prices: Where Affordability Still Thrives – National Association of Realtors
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in October – Calculated Risk 
• U.S. housing affordability to worsen even as price rises slow: Reuters poll – Reuters
• A Housing Crisis Deepens, and a Reporter Digs In. To really communicate with people about the many problems arrayed across the housing landscape, we needed to cut through the noise. – New York Times 

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Suburbs where home values plunged – and set a trap for buyers – The Sydney Morning Herald
• [Australia] Sydney and Melbourne house prices tipped to fall in 2025. But SQM research report warns that prices in other Australian capitals are likely to surge, depending on interest rates and population growth rates – The Guardian
• [Australia] New home construction slumps to near 40-year low in Australia as renovation spending booms. ‘This indicates that there is not enough money and resources being attracted to expanding the housing stock,’ urban economist says – The Guardian

On other countries:  

• [Brazil] A Look Overseas: The Brazilian Real Estate Tech Ecosystem. Trends and lessons from the evolution of real estate tech in Latin America’s largest market – Thesis Driven
• [Germany] German home prices to climb 3% next year on lower rates: Reuters poll – Reuters
• [Ireland] Canadian Relentless house price rises continue with another hike of 10pc – Irish Independent
• [Pakistan] Rebuilding Homes and Strengthening Communities: An Integrated Approach to Pakistan’s Housing Reconstruction – Development Asia
• [United Kingdom] UK property sector hit by fears of resurgent inflation. Big housebuilders have shed billions in value since October Budget – FT

From a paper by Lei Yu, Wenxian Zhou, Yujie Lin, Xinlong Yang and Jue Wang:

“This paper explores the impact of demographic changes on the sustainability of household liabilities, which is crucial for adjusting the effects of demographic shifts and stabilizing household debt levels. Using inter-provincial panel data and econometric models, including fixed effects, systematic GMM, and mediation effect models, the study examines how demographic structure affects household debt sustainability. It finds that the natural population structure has a more significant impact than social or spatial factors. Key results include: (1) higher child and old-age dependency ratios worsen debt sustainability, with regional variations; (2) a favorable gender ratio improves debt sustainability, particularly in the eastern regions; (3) higher income ratios for home-purchase and consumption expenditures, along with GDP growth, benefit debt sustainability, while financial security income has a negative effect; (4) rising house prices mediate the relationship between demographic changes and debt sustainability. The study recommends policy improvements such as incentives for multiple births and enhanced social security.”

On cross-country:

• Global Rent Price Index: 1, 5 & 10 Year Changes by Country – Global Property Guide
• How the EU should tackle the housing crisis. – Social Europe

Working papers and conferences:

• Housing and Macroprudential Policy – University of Oxford
• Nonpayment and Eviction in the Rental Housing Market – NBER
• The Incidence of Rent Subsidies: Evidence on Rents, Housing Choices and Supply – CESifo
• The role of housing market and credit on household consumption dynamics: Evidence from the OECD countries – Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
• Finding Home When Disaster Strikes: Dust Bowl Migration and Housing in Los Angeles – SSRN
• Bargaining Outcomes of Housing Investors Across Diverse Neighborhoods – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Single-Family Permits Higher in September 2024 – NAHB
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2024 – Calculated Risk
• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October. First Year-over-year gain in Existing Home Sales since August 2021 – Calculated Risk
• Powell May Be Waiting Until 2026 for Housing Inflation to Cool. Cleveland Fed model suggests CPI metric will stay elevated. Optics of high inflation make it hard to cut rates: economist – Bloomberg
• October 2024 Hottest Housing Markets – Realtor.com
• Examining Recent Patterns in Residential Building Permits – St. Louis Fed
• Builder Confidence Moves Higher as Election Uncertainty is Lifted – NAHB 
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October. First Year-over-year Sales Gain Since August 2021 – Calculated Risk
• Residential Mortgages Experience Unchanged Lending Conditions, Weaker Demand in Third Quarter – NAHB
• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.311 million Annual Rate in October – Calculated Risk  
• US single-family housing starts tumble in October – Reuters
• Higher Mortgage Interest Rates Slow Housing Production in October – NAHB
• Gains for Townhouse Construction – NAHB
• The upcoming housing battle that could roil mortgage costs even more. The first Trump administration tried to remove two mortgage giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, from government control. The second one might finish the job. – Washington Post
• California Home Sales Up 9.5% SA YoY in October. Look for First Year-over-year National Existing Home Sales Gain Since August 2021 – Calculated Risk
• Growth for Single-Family Built-for-Rent Construction – NAHB
• New-Construction Activity Continues To Cool in October – Realtor.com
• Low-Rise Multifamily and Housing Supply: A Case Study of Seattle – AEI 
• Mortgage rates are up. That’s a big problem for Trump. High housing costs have become part of the economic “vibes” that people see on a regular basis. – Washington Post
• Flat Conditions for Custom Home Building – NAHB
• Economic Developments – November 2024. Weaker Home Sales Expected as Interest Rates Rise – Fannie Mae

On the US—other developments:    

• Five Innovations that Could Upend the Housing Market. Don’t overlook technology’s role in shaping housing demand–and supply. Here are five technologies that will make a difference. – Home Economics
• America’s Homes Are Piggy Banks That Few People Can Afford to Raid. Only a minority of mainly older homeowners are in a position to take advantage of the historic run-up in house prices – Wall Street Journal
• What Trump’s Win Could Mean for Housing – Time
• To Save More Water, American Homes Need Smaller Pipes. Most of the plumbing pipes in the United States are oversize, wasting water in a time of increasing drought. – New York Times
• An Affordable Housing Project Faced a Huge Backlash. It Won Anyway. A developer wanted to replace parking garages with affordable apartments in Manhattan, but some residents on the Upper West Side resisted. Here’s why the housing won. – New York Times
• Homeownership’s Promise and Pitfalls in Transferring Wealth Across Generations. The “Great Wealth Transfer” is set to lock-in extreme class stratification absent housing policy reform. – Inequality.org
• Zillow’s real-time affordability tool helps shoppers quickly find homes within their budget – Zillow 
• To Get the Housing Market Moving, Raise Property Taxes. A recent paper compares California and Texas to suggest a novel approach to improving homeownership for young families. It’s an idea that can’t be ignored. – Bloomberg
• Will Doug Burgum Be Donald Trump’s Housing Czar? Plus: Democrats’ housing-lite postelection recriminations and yet another ballot box defeat for pro–rent control forces in California. – Reason
• Two Apartment Buildings Were Planned. Only One Went Up. What Happened? – New York Times
• Families Need Affordable Housing, but New York Residents Use Red Tape To Block Development. With the help of New York’s environmental review law, local NIMBYs halted an approved housing project, adding to delays and costs in a city facing a housing shortage. – Reason 
• Families Must Spend 38% of Their Income on House Payments – NAHB

On China:

• Amid property crisis, China must shift from ‘availability’ to ‘quality’, premier urges. Latest comments show how China’s leadership aims to ‘leverage technology’ and embrace modern advancements to fuel urbanisation drive and boost economy – South China Morning Post

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Clare O’Neil on Labor’s plan to fix the housing crisis – The Guardian
• [Australia] The Sydney suburbs where home buyers pay top dollar for tiny blocks – The Guardian
• [Australia] ‘Basically impossible’: Housing affordability is the worst on record – The Sydney Morning Herald

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Canadian housing starts rise 8% in October – Reuters
• [Germany] Germany’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [India] Top Indian Cities Post 23% Jump in House Prices, Consultant Says – Bloomberg
• [Ireland] Irish house prices continue to rise at annual rate of 10%. Latest figures indicate prices in Dublin rose at annual rate of 10.8% in year to September, now up 154.5% since early 2012 – The Irish Times
• [Poland] Poland’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Singapore] Singapore Home Sales Reach 11-Month High as Demand Returns – Bloomberg
• [Spain] The Spanish real estate market in 2024-2025: in expansive mode – CaixaBank
• [Sweden] Sweden’s Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Taiwan] Taiwan’s Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] Houses in national parks in England and Wales sell for 25% more, study finds. Nationwide says New Forest is most expensive national park with an average property price of £576,000 – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] New housing developments forcing people to rely on cars. Major new study shows car dependency of new homes has increased in every region of England outside of London over the last 15 years – New Economics Foundation
• [United Kingdom] Asking prices for UK homes show big November dip but 2025 set for gains, Rightmove says – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] UK Rental Inflation Picks Up for First Time in Seven Months. Double-digit rise in rents in London in fresh blow for tenants. Housing costs are still exerting a cost-of-living squeeze – Bloomberg

Note that this post will be updated as links to papers and presentations become available. Last updated: 11:/20/2024

On Housing Cycles & Housing Affordability

• Identifying Housing Market Bubbles: Bespoke Bubbles for Diverse Market Structures
• The Effect of Local Stock Market Participation on Local Housing Prices
• Macro Shocks and Housing Markets
• Negative Capital Shock, Overseas Buyers, and Housing Market
• A Housing Portfolio Channel of QE Transmission
• Land Development and Frictions to Housing Supply Over the Business Cycle
• Competitive Human Capital Accumulation and Housing Prices
• The Channels of Amplification: Dissecting the Credit Boom that led to the Global Financial Crisis
• Fiscal Stimulus Payments, Housing Demand, and House Price Inflation
• A Tale of Two U.S. House Price Booms
• Capital Flows, Income Inequality, and Housing Prices

On Housing Supply

• The Effects of Neighborhood Redevelopment on Housing Markets and Beyond: Evidence from HOPE VI Revitalization Programs
• The Housing Supply and Price Effects of Reducing Parking Requirements in U.S. Cities
• Housing regulation
• The Effects of Floodplain Regulation on Housing Markets
• Tax Incentives and the Supply of Low-Income Housing
• The Housing Supply and Price Effects of Reducing Parking Requirements in U.S. Cities

Housing Wealth and Mortgages

• When Prejudice Hits Home: Hate Crime and the Market for Mortgage Credit
• Intergenerational Mobility and Housing Wealth in the United States
• Mortgage Lock-in, Life-cycle Migration, and the Welfare Effects of Housing Market Liquidity
• Unlocking Mortgage Lock-In
• Real Estate Commissions and Homebuying
• Mortgage Credit and Housing Markets
• Land Use Regulation, Homeownership, and Wealth Inequality
• Reverse Mortgages, Housing, and Consumption: An Equilibrium Approach
• Effect of Credit Score Constraints on Mortgage Loans in the Housing Market
• Blockbusting and the Challenges Faced by Black Families in Building Wealth through Housing in the Postwar United States
• Does Homeownership Preserve Wealth for Low-Income and Minority Senior Households?
• Mortgage Seasonality, Capacity Constraints, and Lender Responses

On Environment and Housing

• (Re)labeling and Preference: Evidence from Air Quality Standards and Housing Markets in South Korea
• Home Prices Following a Climate Risk Information Shock
• Levees and Levies: Local Financing of Climate Infrastructure Maintenance and Housing Market Dynamics
• Flooded House or Underwater Mortgage? The Macrofinancial Implications of Climate Change and Adaptation
• Racial Housing Discrimination and Flood Risk

Spatial Economics

• Spatial Extrapolation in the Housing Market
• Dynamic Urban Economics
• The Spatial and Distributive Implications of Working-from-Home: A General Equilibrium Model
• Spatial Misallocation in Housing and Land Markets: Evidence from China

Insurance and Bargaining

• The Numbers Game: Effects of Listing and Counteroffer Pricing Format in Housing Bargaining
• The Winner’s Curse in Housing Markets
• Dual Credit Markets: Income Risk, Household Debt, and Consumption
• Eviction as Bargaining Failure: Hostility and Misperceptions in the Rental Housing Market
• Bidder Beware: Intergenerational Wealth Transfers and Overpayment in Housing Markets
• Risk Taking under Assimilation and Contrast: Theory, Experiments, and Applications
• Rent Guarantee Insurance
• Insuring Landlords

Discrimination

• Racial Housing Covenants: The Case of a Southern U.S. City
• LGBTQIA+ PEOPLE’S ACCESS TO HOUSING SERVICES IN THE CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC CONSTRAINTS: THE TÜRKİYE CASE
• Racial Differences in the Total Rate of Return on Owner-Occupied Housing
• Immigration Enforcement and the Local Housing Market: Evidence Using Fintech Data

Miscellaneous

• Impact of Institutional Owners on Housing Markets
• When the Levy Breaks: School Levies, Public Goods, and the Housing Market
• Does Opportunity Come with Trade-Offs? The Impact of Small Area Fair Market Rents on Search Outcomes
• Behavioral Lock-In: Aggregate Implications of Reference Dependence in the Housing Market
• Labor and Housing as Essential Links in the Critical Materials Supply Chain
• Institutional Investors in the Market for Single-Family Housing: Where Did They Come From, Where Did They Go?
• Equilibrium Multiplicity: A Systematic Approach using Homotopies, with an Application to Chicago
• Split Incentives and Energy Efficiency Investment: Evidence from the Housing Market
• Evidence on the Determinants and Variation of Idiosyncratic Risk in Housing Markets
• The Welfare and Targeting Impacts of Public Housing vs Vouchers: Lottery Evidence from Miami
• Horizon Risk in Renting: Evidence From a PropTech Rental Platform
• The Effects of Prevailing Wages on Affordable Housing Construction Costs in California
• The Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers on Consumption and Household Balance Sheets: Experimental Evidence from Two U.S. States
• Mandatory Pension Saving and Homeownership
• Housing Demand and Remote Work

From a book chapter by Hites Ahir and Prakash Loungani:

“In April 2008, the IMF’s flagship publication World Economic Outlook provided estimates of overvaluation in house prices for a group of advanced economies. Though house prices had fallen in the United States in the preceding years, they had continued to rise in many other countries. The IMF’s analysis suggested that, with only a few exceptions, house prices were overvalued by between 10% and 30%, as shown by the bars in Fig. 7.1. The dots show the decline in house prices that occurred over the subsequent 4 years. In many countries where the IMF had assessed house prices to be overvalued, house prices did indeed fall quite significantly—these cases include Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.

Fast forward to the present: The IMF’s Global House Price Index—a simple average of real house prices for 57 countries—is now back to its level before the global financial crisis (GFC). The index has been inching up since 2012, making the duration of the run-up comparable to one in 2001–06 that ended in house price collapses in many countries. Is it time to worry again about overvaluation?

This chapter describes the evolution of IMF monitoring—“surveillance” in the IMF’s jargon—of housing markets from 2008 to the present. Section 2 describes how the IMF has assessed overvaluation in housing markets and the advice it offered on the policy tools needed to manage house price booms. It lays out the IMF’s ‘corporate view’ or ‘house view’ that macroprudential policies must be the first line of defense to deal with house price booms. Section 3 takes up the issue of whether the run-up in house prices over the past few years should be a source of worry. Section 4 describes how IMF surveillance has adapted as housing markets have become more ‘glocalized’ and developments at the sub-national level gain greater prominence.1 Section 5 has some concluding observations.”

Continue reading here.