The Unassuming Economist

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.6% Year-over-Year. Punta Gorda House Prices Down almost 20% from Peak – Calculated Risk
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.7% year-over-year in July. FHFA House Prices up 2.3% YoY in July – Calculated Risk
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak. Price-to-rent index is 10.0% below 2022 peak – Calculated Risk
• Mortgage Rates Continue Downward Trend in September – NAHB
• Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest MBA Weekly Survey – MBA
• Homeowners With Sub-4% Mortgage Rates Are On the Move—and They’re Buying Newly Built Homes – Realtor.com 
• Falling Mortgage Rates Could Unlock These 10 Housing Markets – Realtor.com
• FHFA’s Q2 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores – Calculated Risk
• 5 Key Takeaways: Mortgage Rates Could Drop Below 6% – Realtor.com
• 80% of Outstanding Mortgage Debt Has a Sub-6% Rate – Realtor.com
• Share of Mortgages with Rates Above 6% Climbs to 10-Year High as Americans Adapt to New Normal – Redfin
• Where Falling Mortgage Rates Could Spark the Most Change – Realtor.com
• Rise of ‘Accidental Landlords’ Is Bad News for Investors Who Bet Big on Rentals. Problems in the for-sale housing market are starting to infect the rental business – Wall Street Journal
• The end of rent debt? Tenants are going on strike against their landlords. – Vox
• A rent freeze is not the answer to New York’s housing crisis. If he is elected mayor, Zohran Mamdani should concentrate on expanding supply – FT

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Home Sales Fell in August, Slowed by High Home Prices. Median home price rises to $422,600, up 2% from year ago and highest price ever for month of August – Wall Street Journal
• What if local control can actually help build housing? Some places want to build. Maybe we should just let them. – Noahpinion
• Developers look to New York’s vacant offices to meet high housing demand. Manhattan has become increasingly residential since the pandemic as more commercial properties are converted – FT
• Three Levers to Unlock 1.5 Million Homes a Year – AEI
• Final Look at Housing Markets in August and a Look Ahead to September Sales – Calculated Risk
• US pending home sales rebound in August amid low mortgage rates – Reuters
• Pending Home Sales Rise in August as Falling Mortgage Rates Finally Spur Activity – Realtor.com
• Construction Labor Market Softens – NAHB
• AEI Housing Market Indicators, September 2025 – AEI
• Goldman Says Looser Land Rules May Ease US’s Housing Squeeze – Bloomberg
• 17% of NAHB Builders Built Age-Restricted Housing in 2024 – NAHB
• Square Foot Prices Moderate in 2024 – NAHB
• Sellers in Top Buyer’s Markets Are Sweetening Deals With Discounts – Realtor.com

On other developments:    

• The Rise of ‘Accidental Landlords’. When properties don’t sell, it may be time to get a tenant. – New York Times
• New York City’s Suburbs Heat Up as Residents Move in Anticipation of a Mamdani Win – Realtor.com
• Housing secretary says work will start on three new towns before election. Steve Reed hails predecessor Angela Rayner as ‘true working-class hero’ and accuses Tories of blocking new homes – The Guardian
• Characteristics of Homes Built in Age-Restricted Communities – NAHB
• Does the Zillow rent measure help predict CPI rent inflation? – Econbrowser 
• Two-Thirds of Working-Age Renters Struggle to Afford Basic Needs – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Fannie and Freddie: Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic) – Calculated Risk
• Real Estate Visualized: America’s Home Buyers by Generation – Visual Capitalist
• ATTOM Launches Transparent Owner to Reveal True Property Ownership – ATTOM
• Home Values Rise Slightly in July Nationwide but Drop in These 7 Major Cities – Realtor.com
• Strong Foundations Shows Every Community a Way Forward on Housing – AEI
• Why a shutdown looms over the housing market. The National Flood Insurance Program is set to lapse along with government funding. – Politico
• The Housing Hero Gotham Deserved. Plus: New York’s expensive new stove regulations, Los Angeles rent controls, and the housing policy implications of a federal shutdown. – Reason
• How an infrastructure financing law can help build thousands of homes and expand transit access – Brookings
• A Once Unstoppable Luxury Housing Market Is Starting to Crack Economic uncertainty has taken a toll on wealthy buyers and sellers – Wall Street Journal
• New Tariffs Could Worsen America’s Housing Crisis. President Trump’s tariffs on timber, wood, furniture and kitchen cabinets could raise the cost of building and buying a home. – New York Times
• A Boring Housing Market Is Good News for Buyers. Sellers appear to realise that “peak” pricing is now in the past. – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

• Home economics: the tax roulette of buying a house in Europe. House buying costs vary from zero to thousands of euros, depending on where you buy – FT

Working papers and conferences:

• Is There a Puzzle in Underwater Mortgage Default? – Boston Fed
• Supply Constraints Do Not Explain House Price and Quantity Growth Across U.S. Cities – San Francisco Fed
• Organizational Form and Thrift Risk During the US Housing Boom and Bust – Cleveland Fed 
• Do Banks Price Flood Risk in Mortgage Origination: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in New Orleans – FED
• Conference: Housing affordability: what is new? in Zagreb, Croatia, on 26 September 2025 – Institute of Public Finance
• Homeownership and Housing Equity in the Mid-Twentieth Century – FED
• Under Pressure: Financial Stress and Housing Payments – Philadelphia FED

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [New Zealand] New Zealand woos the wealthy with golden visa changes. The country is introducing a minimum property investment of $3mn as part of a plan to entice foreigners seeking ‘a safe haven’ or outdoor lifestyle – FT

On other countries:  

• [Ireland] Mortgage rules have stopped house prices from rising even more quickly, says Central Bank. Deputy governor Vasileios Madouros said the rules, introduced in 2015, guard against the damaging effects of unsustainable mortgage lending – Irish Independent
• [Germany] German home prices rise as depressed property sector seeks momentum – Reuters
• [Singapore] What’s behind Singapore’s world-high property transaction costs? Island nation has tried to calm foreign property demand by adding fees – FT
• [Switzerland] Switzerland Holds Vote on Abolishing $2.1 Billion Property Tax – Bloomberg
• [United Arab Emirates] UAE Residential Property Price Report – August 2025 – REIDIN
• [United Arab Emirates] Will Dubai’s super-hot property market avoid a crash? Despite fears of a reckoning, its fundamentals look solid – The Economist
• [Vietnam] Vietnam PM calls for more housing to cool real estate prices – Reuters

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Mortgage Interest Rates Today: Mortgage Rates Dip to 6.26% Following Long-Awaited Fed Cut – Realtor.com
• How the Fed’s rate cut impacts mortgage rates – AP
• Mapping Home Price Changes – New York Fed
• Household Formation Drives Housing Demand – Calculated Risk
• Housing prices are causing some people to have smaller families than planned – NPR

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Lennar’s Profit Sinks as Housing Market Remains Stalled. The homebuilder’s profit fell for a fourth consecutive quarter – Wall Street Journal
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in August – Calculated Risk
• Single-Family Homes Are Built Faster in 2024 – NAHB
• Housing Supply Drops Most in 2 Years as Sluggish Demand Spooks Sellers – Redfin 
• One reason so many seniors are staying in large homes. Congress should raise capital gains exemptions for seniors to address shortage of homes for sale. – Washington Post
• Home equity loans will keep US housing market tight. Downsizing has become less appealing to older generations, lowering inventory of property sales – FT
• With New Plan, Hochul Fast-Tracks Housing Supply. A new program will put manufactured homes at the center of a statewide effort to make housing more affordable. – New York Times  
• California Home Sales Down Year-over-year for 5th Straight Month – Calculated Risk
• Summer 2025 Was the Strongest Buyer’s Market in Records Dating Back Over a Decade – Redfin
• Single-Family Construction Loan Volume Falls Back – NAHB
• New Home Sales Post Unexpected Large Gain in August – NAHB
• New Home Sales increased to 800,000 Annual Rate in August. Median New Home Price is Down 10% from the Peak due to Change in Mix – Calculated Risk
• Existing Home Sales Fall in August Amid Higher Mortgage Rates – NAHB
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in August. Median House Prices Increased 2.0% Year-over-Year – Calculated Risk

On other developments:    

• Introducing JobsWatch – Home Economics
• Building an affordable economy: A three-legged stool strategy – Stanford
• A Three-Legged Affordability Agenda! Just out from the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, by yours truly and the great Neale Mahoney. – Jared Bernstein
• The 6 states with the highest homeownership rates in America — and the 6 lowest. Learn more about the factors shaping homeownership rates. Plus, get homeownership data for 13 U.S. states – Quartz
• The US Abandoned Affordable Housing. We Can Create It Again. – Jacobin
• Trump Appointees Roll Back Enforcement of Fair Housing Laws. Interviews and internal documents show that signature civil rights protections in housing are being dismissed as ideologically driven and D.E.I. in disguise. – New York Times 
• U.S. Birth Rates Plummet as Home Prices Surge: Here’s How the Housing Market Is Shaping Family Planning – Realtor.com
• The Fed’s Rate Path Is Too Cautious to Fix Housing. Growing pessimism about a rebound is taking hold among companies tied to residential construction. – Bloomberg
• Four Easy Fixes for the Housing Crisis – New York Times
• Beyond the numbers: Real families, real barriers — and the practical steps to achieving homeownership. Families share how inequities have shaped their housing journeys. Zillow shares what can be done to create a fairer path to homeownership. – Zillow
• Homeownership Costs, Drop in Home Value Hit Black Households Hardest. Minority households are more likely to be cost-burdened, spending more than 30% of their income on mortgage, property taxes, and insurance. – Zillow
• The American Dream Will Now Cost You $5 Million – Realtor.com
• The Fed’s Rate Path Is Too Cautious to Fix Housing. Growing pessimism about a rebound is taking hold among companies tied to residential construction. – Bloomberg
• Third Quarter Sees Homes Grow Less Affordable in Much of Country – ATTOM  

Working papers and conferences:

• Event: Developing Coordinated Strategies to Increase Housing Inventory on October 8 – Philadelphia Fed
• Rising housing prices and foreign-invested enterprise inflows in Chinese cities: The role of urban innovation – Habitat International
• Superstar Returns: Spatial Heterogeneity in Returns to Housing – KIEL Institut
• The House Price Channel of Quantitative Easing – IDEAS

On China:

• China’s property market shows signs of stabilisation despite monthly fall. August figures continued their month-on-month decline, though the sluggish sector’s year-on-year numbers narrowed marginally – South China Morning Post
• China Used Home Prices Drop Faster as Cities Expand Support – Bloomberg

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Politicians hoping AI can fix Australia’s housing crisis are risking another Robodebt. The technology will be used to ‘simplify and speed up assessments and approvals’. But planning is more than just paperwork waiting to be automated – The Guardian

On other countries:  

• [Austria] Austria Extends Home Rent Controls to Private Contracts – Bloomberg
• [Bosnia and Herzegovina] The Real Estate Market in Bosnia and Herzegovina – IMF
• [Canada] Canada Home Sales Rise for Fifth Month as Inventory Lures Buyers – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canada announces new federal agency to build affordable housing – Reuters
• [Canada] Carney allots $13-billion to build affordable housing under Build Canada Homes – The Globe and Mail
• [Canada] Carney Unveils $9.4 Billion Plan to Build Affordable Homes – Bloomberg 
• [France] The left’s radical plan to fix housing in Paris. Authorities are using an arsenal of interventionist tools to make city homes affordable. Critics call it an attack on property rights. – FT 
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong developers test homebuyer sentiment as residential market outlook improves. Henderson Land and Swire Properties have varying success with the sales of their residential projects in To Kwa Wan and Chai Wan – South China Morning Post
• [Ireland] House prices have grown by about 50 percent on average over the last five years – Irish Independent
• [New Zealand] New Zealand home prices dip in August, buyers remain cautious – Reuters
• [Singapore] Singapore Home Sales Surge to Nine-Month High in Renewed Frenzy – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK rental listings fall at fastest rate since Covid lockdown, survey shows. Rics members attribute sharp drop to worries over tenants’ rights, inheritance tax and national insurance – FT
• [United Kingdom] Average U.K. House Asking Prices Rise in September. Rightmove said the rise was less than the average for this time of the year – Wall Street Journal
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall while rents rise by least in 4 years, surveys show – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices to rise more slowly than expected, helping first-time buyers: Reuters poll – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise 2.8% in 12 months to July – Reuters

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Price Maps – Home Economics
• Home Prices Decline in a Growing Number of Markets as Inventories Climb – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• The “Home ATM” Mostly Closed in Q2. Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Slightly Positive in Q2 – Calculated Risk
• Mortgage Rates Are at an 11-Month Low. Will That Save This Housing Market? Buyers have more purchasing power, but home prices near record highs and a weakening job market are significant hurdles – Wall Street Journal
• Shelter Inflation Continued to Cool – NAHB
• The Fed is poised to cut rates. Will mortgage rates follow? With a Fed rate cut expected this week, many expect mortgage rates to follow. Here’s why that’s not always the case – Quartz
• What Does a Fed Rate Cut Mean for Mortgage Rates? – Realtor.com
• US 30-year mortgage rate drops, refinances jump, MBA data shows – Reuters

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• August 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in August – Calculated Risk
• Housing Starts Remain Soft Ahead of Fed Meeting – NAHB  
• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.307 million Annual Rate in August – Calculated Risk
• US single-family housing starts approach 2-1/2-year lows amid excess supply – Reuters

On other developments:    

• Homeownership Costs Have Jumped 26% Over 5 Years as Hidden Expenses Rise – Realtor.com
• August 2025 Hottest Housing Markets – Realtor.com
• The Metros Where Homes Are Selling Fastest—5 Key Takeaways – Realtor.com
• Mapped: Housing Affordability Across North America in 2025 – Visual Capitalist
• Adding Value. The Federal Housing Administration and the costs of incentive-driven development – Phenomenal World
• Household Real Estate Asset Values Reach New High – NAHB
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2025 – Calculated Risk
• Housing costs squeeze owners and renters alike, outpacing inflation. Renters also faced a financial shock in 2024, as rent increases outpaced inflation. – Washington Post
• The right way to look at the housing crisis. Readers suggest fixes to the housing crisis and crime – Washington Post
• Even New York City’s Wealthy Renters Can’t Avoid the Housing Crisis. In some of the city’s wealthiest enclaves, even high earners are struggling to keep up with ballooning costs. – Bloomberg
• Housing Slump Ripples Through Manufacturing Economy. Air-conditioner manufacturer Carrier and plumbing product distributor Core & Main warned of a steep whipsaw in residential demand. – Bloomberg
• Closing the gap: How policy, builders and innovation can rebalance housing – Zillow
• Affordable Metros Where You Can Find a Home Priced Below $300K—5 Key Takeaways – Realtor.com
• My Head Talks on Bloomberg. On tariffs, housing and more – Paul Krugman
• Builders Stay Cautious as Single-Family Permits Extend Downtrend – NAHB
• Texas now restricts Chinese nationals from buying property. Is it alien land laws all over again? – The Guardian
• US housing market to remain stuck in a rut as high rates choke demand – Reuters
• US economy braces for twin housing, labor market headwinds – Reuters
• Builder Confidence Steady but Future Sales Expectations Hit Six-Month High – NAHB
• Student housing prices are rising in Portland – Axios
• Home Flipping Profit Margins Hit 17-Year Low in Second Quarter – ATTOM
• US single-family housing starts near 2-1/2-year lows as inventory bloat weighs – Reuters