The Unassuming Economist

Working papers and conferences:

• NAR Settlement, House Prices, and Consumer Welfare – NBER
• Affordable Housing, Unaffordable Credit? Concentration and High-Cost Lending for Manufactured Homes – SSRN
• From Boom to Bust: Probabilities of Turning Points in House Prices – SSRN 

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• U.S. Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – August 2024 | Spotlight: Refinance Trends – Freddie Mac
• Home Sales Remain Subdued as Labor Market and Inflation Continue to Cool – Fannie Mae
• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q2 2024 – Calculated Risk
• Single-Family Starts Weak in July – NAHB
• Housing Starts: Single Family Down Year-15% over-year in July; Multi-Family Down 18% YoY – Calculated Risk 
• New Residential Construction Slides in July; Multi-Family Projects Lead Decline – Realtor.com
• The Typical U.S. Housing Payment Has Fallen to Lowest Level in 6 Months. That Has Led to More Buyer Interest, But Not More Sales – Redfin
• Best Quarter for Custom Home Building in Almost Two Years – NAHB
• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July and 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets – Calculated Risk
• Here Comes Kamala’s Mortgage Forgiveness. Her plan to make housing more ‘affordable’ via subsidies will raise prices and create moral hazard. – Wall Street Journal
• Existing Home Sales Rose 0.6% Last Month, But Were At the Lowest July Level on Record – Redfin
• Solid Levels of Single-Family Built-for-Rent Construction – NAHB
• The audacious goal of building 10,000 affordable homes in California’s Coachella Valley – Brookings
• Governors are building more homes. Here’s how Congress can help – The Hill 
• Lawler: Rent Trends at Invitation Homes and American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) – Calculated Risk
• 10 Places Where Lower Mortgage Rates Will ‘Unlock’ the Housing Market the Fastest – Realtor.com
• US Home-Purchase Applications Slide to Lowest Since February – Bloomberg  
• Housing market map: Zillow’s 2025 home price forecast for more than 400 markets. Zillow thinks national home price growth is amid a sharp deceleration. – Fast Company
• Homebuilders have had the upper hand in the housing market. Lower rates may change that. – Yahoo Finance

On the US—other developments:    

• Harris has the right idea on housing. It has to be managed as both a consumer good and as an asset class. – Noahpinion
• Harris’s housing plans: Key takeaways – Yahoo Finance
• Harris to Call for Expanded Child Tax Credit, 3 Million New Housing Units. Democratic nominee to address thorny economic issue by calling for more construction, tax incentives – Wall Street Journal
• Harris’s economic plan: grocery prices, housing credits and tax rises. Populist measures designed to win over US voters are less welcome to business and economists – FT
• Why Harris’s housing plan won’t work. Kamala Harris can’t count on adding 3 million houses to the market by 2028. – Washington Post
• Letter: VP’s offer to first-time buyers risks fuelling the housing crisis – FT
• Kamala Harris’ welcome housing boost is overdue – Reuters
• Kamala Harris’ ‘Build, Baby, Build’ Convention. Housing supply hasn’t been a front-burner issue in presidential politics for decades. That changed this week in Chicago. – Politico
• The Harris-Walz Campaign’s Housing Agenda Is Subpar – Jacobin   
• Rep. Maxwell Frost stresses housing as priority for young voters – Axios
• The Share of Million-Dollar Homes in America Just Hit an All-Time High. Nearly 1 in 10 properties have an estimated value of $1 million or more, an ‘entry point’ for some markets – Wall Street Journal
• Cutting Fees. Going It Alone. New Rules Are Changing How We Buy and Sell Homes. Buyers can now determine what their agents are paid under new rules being rolled out across the U.S. – Wall Street Journal
• Why is New York City Shrinking? Who is leaving, and where are they going? – Home Economics
• Our Carrie Bradshaw index: where Americans can afford to live solo in 2024. Compared with last year, rent on basic apartments looks more affordable – The Economist
• Best Quarter for Custom Home Building in Almost Two Years – NAHB
• Lowe’s Cuts Guidance on Soft DIY Spending, Housing Market. Consumers are pulling back on spending for big ticket projects. Retailer said it is making inroads with professional customers – Bloomberg  
• Flat Conditions for Single-Family Home Size – NAHB
• California’s decade-long effort to legalize ADUs offers lessons for other US states and regions – Brookings

On China:

• China’s $70bn property rescue plan limps off starting line. Banks have disbursed only a fraction of the scheme’s target lending to buy up unsold housing – FT

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Melbourne mayor backs converting offices into apartments in bid to boost housing supply. Support for idea comes as Victorian government unveils plan to fast-track planning approvals in 10 hubs across city – The Guardian
• [Canada] Canada real estate: Housing affordability improves as income required to buy a home fall – Yahoo Finance
• [Hong Kong] Are young Hongkongers choosing to pursue public rental flats over their dreams? Officials caution against ‘lying flat’, but young people point to severe shortage of housing choices – South China Morning Post
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s homebuyers would rather forfeit their deposits than pay above-market prices. The 308 cases in the first half of the year have already exceeded last year’s total of 261, according to data from Centaline – South China Morning Post
• [Israel] Israel Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Japan] Japan Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Korea] Koreans Expect Hotter Home Prices With Central Bank Set to Meet – Bloomberg
• [Korea] Bank of Korea Holds Rate Steady to Rein in Housing Market Meet – Bloomberg
• [Singapore] Latest property cooling measure will dampen demand in the short term, say analysts – The Straits Times
• [Singapore] Singapore Adds Public Housing Curbs to Boost Affordability. Loan-to-value limit lowered to 75% for public housing. Public housing deals at or above S$1 million reached 419 in 1H – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] To Solve Its Housing Crisis, Britain Turns to an Old Idea: New Towns. By reviving an idea from the 1940s, the Labour Party government is hoping to overcome the development hurdles that have plagued previous efforts with a plan to build new communities. – New York Times
• [United Kingdom] Interest rate cut fuels immediate upturn in UK property market. Figures from Rightmove show inquiries to estate agents since 1 August up 19% compared with a year ago – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] When will UK rental inflation slow down? It might be soon — but that would leave tenants on a painful plateau – FT

On cross-country:

• Promoting Access to Affordable Housing in Emerging Markets – IFC
• Is Land-Use Regulation Holding Back Construction Productivity? – Construction Physics
• European Residential Update – Knight Frank

Working papers and conferences:

• Racial Housing Price Differentials and Neighborhood Segregation – NBER
• A tale of tier 3 cities – Journal of International Economics
• Credit Supply, Prices, and Non-price Mechanisms in the Mortgage Market – San Francisco Fed
• House Prices and Monetary Policy: Tearing down the wall in Germany? – SSRN
• Housing-Consumption Channel of Mortgage Demand – SSRN
• Entrepreneurs, Collateral Channel, and the House Price Volatility Puzzle – SSRN  

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• US Mortgage Rates Tumble to 6.55% in Biggest Drop in Two Years. 30-year rate slides 27 basis points to lowest since May 2023. Drop spurs pickup in applications to refinance, buy a home – Bloomberg
• US Mortgage Refinancing Surges by Most Since 2020 on Lower Rates. MBA gauge jumped 34.5% to a more than two-year high last week. Mortgage applications for home purchases rose more modest 2.8% – Bloomberg
• Why Falling Mortgage Rates Aren’t a Quick Fix for Frustrated Homebuyers. Record home prices and renewed fears of a recession complicate hopes for housing market recovery – Wall Street Journal
• How Gen Z Co-Purchasing Is Changing the Borrower Landscape. The real estate market is transforming as Generation Z become homebuyers and turn to house hacking – CoreLogic
• Biggest shakeup in a century set to hit real estate agents this week: Here’s how they’re preparing – CNN
• So Much About Real-Estate Commissions Just Changed. Here’s What to Know. The changes come after the National Association of Realtors reached a landmark legal settlement earlier this year – Wall Street Journal
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in July. Early Reports Suggest Possible New Cycle Low for NAR reported Sales in July – Calculated Risk
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2024 – Calculated Risk
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2024 – Calculated Risk
• Single-Family Permit Increase Moderates in June 2024 – NAHB
• National Housing & Economic Forecast 2024 Midyear Update: Long-Awaited Mortgage Rate Relief Finally Arrives – Realtor.com
• Our Midyear Real Estate Forecast Reveals Major Change for Homebuyers—Here’s What’s in Store – Realtor.com
• Experts Predict What the Real Estate Market Will Look Like Once Mortgage Rates Drop – Realtor.com
• To cap or not to cap? – Politico

On the US—other developments:    

• FACT SHEET: Biden-⁠Harris Administration Takes New Actions to Lower Housing Costs by Cutting Red Tape to Build More Housing – The White House
• Biden Invests $100 Million to Fuel Housing Construction. The White House is expanding low-cost financing, easing regulations and incentivizing local reforms in a wide-ranging effort to increase housing supply. – Bloomberg
• How the U.S. might outgrow pandemic-era housing (un)affordability problems – Dallas Fed
• Home Ownership Affordability Monitor – Atlanta Fed
• Boomers Buying Houses Had It Bad in the ’80s. Millennials Have It Worse. The housing affordability index shows whether the typical family… – Wall Street Journal
• Housing Is a Top Concern for Voters. Why Not for the Candidates? Americans want more affordable housing. Politicians from both parties could offer better solutions. – Bloomberg
• The Fed Is Too Late to Save the Housing Market This Year. A decline in mortgage rates at the tail end of buying season is unlikely to meaningfully boost transactions or industries that depend on them. – Bloomberg
• ‘Sitting empty’: Vast expanse of federal land eyed for new housing. “Imagine having a county where over 90 percent of the land can’t have housing … all because it’s federally managed,” said Rep. John Curtis. – Politico
• Why the housing market is ‘challenged’ right now: Zillow CEO – Yahoo Finance
• Most Popular Markets People Are Moving To – Realtor.com
• Building Material Price Growth Tracking Closely to 2023 – NAHB
• Why did Detroit and New Orleans’s post-disaster recoveries diverge? Can NOLA recapture the kind of forward momentum that Detroit now has? – The New Urban Order
• Is this the best housing bill on the East Coast? A look at the new Massachusetts housing package – The New Urban Order
• Housing and Inflation, July 2024 – Erdmann Housing Tracker

On China:

• China Evergrande’s liquidators ask investors to join restructuring process – Reuters
• China’s Home Price Slump Eases After Government Rescue Efforts – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Canada’s Housing Bust Pits Real Estate Coaches Against Students. A new class of educators promised to help small-time investors use property to build their personal wealth. Now, a backlash is brewing. – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s economic recovery hinges on having enough adequate housing. Housing and town planning reforms will raise social mobility, promote Hong Kong as an international talent hub and bring back our dynamism – South China Morning Post
• [Luxembourg] Luxembourg Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Norway] Norway Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Singapore] Singapore Home Sales Recover in July With More Developer Supply. Real estate firms in the city-state sold 571 units last month. July is typically a strong season after school holiday – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Would building 1.5m homes bring down British house prices?
• Answer: Not by much – The Economist
• [United Kingdom] UK Homebuilder Stocks Extend Rally on Mortgage Rate Optimism. Softer-than-expected inflation fuels borrowing cost hopes. Sector has recovered about half of rate-hike cycle losses – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] London House Prices Post First Annual Rise in More Than a Year. Dip in mortgage rates improved confidence of home buyers. Economists say BOE rate cuts will boost momentum in the autumn – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

• Housing costs: a final hurdle in the last mile of disinflation? – BIS
• Savills Prime Residential Index: World Cities – H1 2024. Which cities have seen price growth in the first six months of the year? Are rents still outperforming capital values? And what do we expect to see for the remainder of 2024? – Savills

Working papers and conferences:

• Household Mobility and Mortgage Rate Lock – NBER
• Global urban structural growth shows a profound shift from spreading out to building up – nature
• Mortgage Lock‑In Spurs Recent HELOC Demand – New York Fed
• Where to Build Affordable Housing? Evaluating the Tradeoffs of Location – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• US Home Price Insights – August 2024 – CoreLogic
• Private Residential Construction Spending Falls for Second Straight Month – NAHB
• US construction spending extends decline in June – Reuters 
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• Kamala Harris’s recent embrace of rent control, explained. Capping rent increases makes voters excited, but economists wary. – Vox
• Renters Struggle with Competing Costs of Food, Energy, and Housing – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Here’s What’s About to Change for People Buying and Selling Homes – Time
• Why some homeowners are leaving their low mortgage rates behind – Axios
• Residential Building Wages See Fastest Growth in More Than Five Years – NAHB
• Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in more than a year. The decline spurred a surge in refinancing applications – Quartz
• Small Decrease in Mortgage Activity for July – NAHB
• Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey – Mortgage Bankers Association
• ICE Mortgage Monitor: Existing Home Inventory Surges in Florida and Texas – Calculated Risk
• How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Change for 2025? – Calculated Risk
• Federal Home Loan Banks Face Amped-Up Pressure From Biden Administration, Senators – Bloomberg
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in July. Early Reports Suggest New Cycle Low for NAR reported Sales in July – Calculated Risk
• Stock Market Turbulence Could Trip Up Home Sales—and These Cities Could Get Hit First – Realtor.com
• These Cities Have More Housing Stock Than Before the Pandemic – Realtor.com

On the US—other developments:    

• Home Sizes: Demand versus Supply – NAHB
• A $1 Trillion Time Bomb Is Ticking in the Housing Market. Millions of US homes are underinsured because their premiums don’t reflect the risk of climate-fueled catastrophes. – Bloomberg
• Homes to Stay Unaffordable Whatever the Fed Does, Survey Shows. Among the greatest threats to personal finances are resurgent inflation and the presidential race. – Bloomberg
• Harris Says She Rescued California Homeowners Hurt by the Financial Crisis. The Reality Is More Complex. Banks met half of their mortgage-relief obligations in the state by writing off loans on homes that were already abandoned, WSJ analysis shows – Wall Street Journal
• The Mechanics of Changing American Mortgages. If it’s too difficult to change how all these different government agencies currently regulate mortgages, here are 2 alternatives. – Real Estate Decoded
• Priced out of housing, many younger disillusioned voters embrace populism. The scarcity of affordable homes to buy or rent has raised enthusiasm for politicians campaigning against immigration — though other causes for the crunch abound. – Politico
• July 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• 76 Secrets of U.S. Home Ownership – Conclusion. Let’s make home ownership boring again. – Real Estate Decoded
• Worried About Extreme Weather? Check Out 12 Hidden Housing Markets With Low Climate Risks – Realtor.com
• What’s Happening in Louisville Could Solve a Housing Crisis – New York Times
• Frustration Evident in Consumer Housing Sentiment. Only 17% Say It’s a ‘Good Time’ to Buy, Despite Known Aspiration to Own – Fannie Mae
• What’s happened to real estate commissions since the big settlement – Axios

On China:

• China Rejects $1 Trillion Housing Rescue Plan Pitched by IMF. IMF recommends direct government financing of delayed projects. China cites worries over moral hazards, bail-out expectations – Bloomberg
• Country Garden Sales Drop 72% as China’s Housing Woes Persist – Bloomberg
• China Cities Rush to Lure Homebuyers With Sweeteners, Price Cuts. Guangzhou offers ‘quasi-Hukou’ to select property buyers. Multiple cities have removed price floor for developers – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Australia] RBA hold decision unlikely to boost housing demand – CoreLogic
• [Austria] Vienna’s social housing, lauded by progressives, pushes out the poor. The city’s most hard-up rely on the private sector – The Economist
• [Canada] Toronto Home Prices Climb for Second Month Even as Sales Slow. New property listings slipped slightly in July from June. Transactions dropped 1.7% as buyers await further rate cuts – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Is Singapore’s housing model a realistic solution for Canada’s affordability woes? – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Are Airbnb rentals eating up Calgary’s housing market? No, says StatCan report. The number of short-term rentals in Calgary is well below the national average, according to the federal agency – Calgary Herald
• [Costa Rica] Costa Rica’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Estonia] Estonia Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Germany] German Property Prices Record First Quarterly Rise in Two Years. Index shows increases across all residential segments. Kiel Institute says turnaround in real estate market has begun – Bloomberg
• [Singapore] Calm down, Singapore’s housing market is not about to collapse. Evidence points to a slowdown in Singapore’s residential property market, but a normalisation of activity is being misconstrued as a crisis – South China Morning Post
• [Spain] The Sydney suburbs BBVA Research: la presión de la demanda impulsará el precio de la vivienda en 2024 y 2025 en España. – BBVA
• [United Kingdom] Owners of flats struggle to step up housing ladder. Stagnating prices have made it hard to build equity, research reveals – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Rise the Most Since January, Halifax Says. Figures chime with Nationwide data showing increasing prices. Prices rose most in Northern Ireland and by 1.2% in London – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] There Are Tentative Signs of a UK House Price Recovery. As always, what happens next will depend on the cost of mortgages. – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

• Southern Europe’s Prime Property Prices Are Booming, Study Shows. Lisbon, Madrid, Athens home values rising more than elsewhere. Prime rental market growing rapidly, outstripping sales growth – Bloomberg

Working papers and conferences:

• Call for Papers: 16th Real Estate Markets and Capital Markets (ReCapNet) Conference KTH Stockholm 28-29 October 2024 – ReCapNet
• How the Source of Financing Discrimination Affects Housing Opportunities for FHA Buyers – SSRN
• Rent Control from Ancient Rome to Paris Commune: The Factors Behind its Introduction – SSRN
• Do Inclusionary Zoning Policies Affect Local Housing Markets? An Empirical Study in the United States – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Who Is Driving Rental Demand? Hint: It’s Not Millennials Anymore. A recent report found that the youngest — and oldest — American adults are sustaining the demand for rental homes. – New York Times
• Memo to Biden & Harris: Rent Controls Will Make Our Housing Crisis Worse – Newsweek
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.9% year-over-year in May. FHFA House Price Index Unchanged in May, up 5.7% YoY – Calculated Risk and Reuters
• Home Price Gains Moderate for Third Straight Month – NAHB
• US CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index Growth Slows Again, Up 5.9% Annually in May – CoreLogic
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in June; Up 5.1% Year-over-year. Over the last 3 months, the seasonal adjusted index has increased at a 0.8% annual rate – Calculated Risk
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.9% Below 2022 Peak. Price-to-rent index is 7.6% below 2022 peak – Calculated Risk
• The housing market is shifting—here’s where it’s happening. These three interactive maps show where home prices are starting to show signs of softening. – Fast Company
• US Home Sales Fell in June To Slowest Pace Since December Amid Rising Mortgage Rates, Home Prices –The Associated Press – NAR
• Secret #74 – 6-Months of Inventory of Houses for Sale is a Lot More Than It Used to Be – Real Estate Decoded
• Top 10 U.S. Housing Markets with Highest Priced Homes in Q2 2024 – ATTOM
• The Week in Review. Week of July 22 – Home Sales Slump – Home Economics
• The price of housing in the US, 1890-2006. The data suggest that both owned and rental housing prices increased more over the 20th century than previously thought, and also that overall inflation over the period may have been underestimated. – VoxEU  
• High Rates Have Been Good for One Corner of the Mortgage Industry. Now What? Mortgage servicers have benefited in multiple ways from higher rates and a slow housing market – Wall Street Journal
• Sellers are ‘losing their grip’ on the housing market as home prices cool, research firm says – Business Insider
• Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey – Mortgage Bankers Association
• Approval timelines really matter for housing – Marginal Revolution
• Solution #2 – Redesign U.S. Mortgages to Maximize Home Ownership Instead of Home Sales. Not Easy But Effective – Real Estate Decoded
• 86% of Outstanding Mortgage Debt has a Sub-6% Rate – Realtor.com

On the US—other developments:    

• The Housing Market Isn’t Making Sense. What’s Going On. – Barron’s
• The Summer 2024 Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com Housing Market Ranking – Realtor.com
• How Do We Solve America’s Affordable Housing Crisis? BU Research Helps Inspire a Federal Bill That Suggests Answers. Legislation could curtail ability of strict local zoning regulations and outspoken “not in my backyard” residents to block multifamily housing – Boston University
• A starter home costs $1 million or more in 237 U.S. cities. California, New York, and New Jersey are home to the most cities where starter homes have a seven-digit price tag – Quartz
• Secret #73 – Did the Internet Make the Real Estate Market LESS Rational! – Real Estate Decoded
• America’s Top Housing Market Is in the Heartland—With Homes Below $200K in Hot Demand – Realtor.com
• Some of America’s Poorest States Have the Highest Homeownership—the Seeming Contradiction, Explained – Realtor.com
• 5 New Narratives About the Housing Market. It’s a post-post-pandemic market – The New Urban Order
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in June and a Look Ahead to July Sales – Calculated Risk
• The Forgotten Solution to the Housing Crunch – AEI
• Secret #76 – A Huge Property Tax Loophole for Land Speculators – Real Estate Decoded
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Mostly Unchanged in June, Multi-family Increased – Calculated Risk
• Mapped: The Fastest Growing Housing Markets in the U.S. – Visual Capitalist
• 3 Solutions – U.S. Home Ownership – Real Estate Decoded
• Homeownership Rate Remains at 65.6% in Q2 2024 – Realtor.com
• Homeownership among lowest-income households climbs near all-time high. That growth outpaces increases in homeownership among higher-income households – Philadelphia Fed
• Lowest Homeownership Rate for Younger Householders in Four Years – NAHB
• Land-Use Reforms and Housing Costs: Does Allowing for Increased Density Lead to
• Greater Affordability? – Urban Studies
• Reducing Housing Burdens While Creating a Longer-Term Affordable Housing Solution – Center for American Progress
• Solution #1 – One Tax Code for Single-Family Homes and Condos – Eliminate All Landlord-Only Tax Breaks. By Far the Easiest, Cheapest and Most Effective Solution – Real Estate Decoded
• Homeowner Equity Turns Back Upward Across U.S. in Second Quarter of 2024 as Home Values Surge – ATTOM

On China:

• China releases five-year action plan for new people-centered urbanization – The State Council

On other countries:  

• [Australia] The Sydney suburbs where house prices soared most over the past year – The Sydney Morning Herald
• [Canada] Britain is planning a housing revolution – Canada should take note – The Globe and Mail
• [Canada] Statscan study: Converting Airbnbs won’t make dent in housing crisis – The Globe and Mail
• [Canada] Short-term rentals in the Canadian housing market – Statistics Canada
• [Colombia] Colombia Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Cyprus] Cyprus’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s 2024 property slump feels like it’s 1997 all over again – or is it? The housing supply pipeline may grow to 112,000 homes over the next three to four years, according to the forecast by the Housing Bureau at the end of March – South China Morning Post
• [Hong Kong] Why Hong Kong’s property market isn’t all doom and gloom. Hong Kong’s real estate sector has endured a series of shocks, yet it is far more resilient than dire reports of its state might suggest – South China Morning Post
• [Hong Kong] Affordable homes will give Hong Kong youth the chance to soar, not lie flat, housing chief says. Housing secretary says boost in home ownership through increased number of affordable flats will be a significant incentive for the young – South China Morning Post 
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong Pre-Owned Property Prices Hit Eight-Year Low – Caixin
• [Hungary] Hungary’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Morocco] Morocco Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [New Zealand] New Zealand Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Spain] Barcelona wants to get rid of short-term rental units. Will other tourist destinations do the same? – AP
• [United Kingdom] Britain’s property hotspots enjoying 20pc house price rises. Growing property fortunes reveal a narrowing North-South divide – The Telegraph
• [United Kingdom] UK Mortgage Approvals Steady In Sign of Stable Housing Market – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Does Taxing Second-Home Owners Ever Make Sense? Tourist hotspots in the UK are increasingly raising council tax on non-residents. Will it help or hurt? – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices expected to rise over second half of year, says Zoopla. Larger number of homes for sale will help push up prices by 2%, says property portal – The Guardian

Working papers and conferences:

• How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Housing Inflation? – Minneapolis Fed
• What does housing collateral mean for Hong Kong economy? From the perspective of modelling and policy implication – Economic Analysis and Policy
• The Geographical Spillover Effect of a House Purchase Deregulation Policy: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment in China – SSRN
• When Does Land Use Regulation Lower the Average Price of Housing in Cities? – SSRN
• Pricing for Opportunity: The Impact of Spatially Varying Rent Subsidies on Housing Voucher Neighborhoods and Take-up – SSRN
• A Structural Model of Mortgage Offset Accounts in the Australian Housing Market – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Runaway Rents in Big American Cities. Rents are rising quickly in some big cities – Home Economics
• U.S. Home Prices Hit Record in June for Second Consecutive Month. Home sales slowed again, ending a disappointing spring selling season – Wall Street Journal
• Record house prices depress US home sales in June – Reuters
• Home Price Growth Expected to Moderate as Listings Outpace Sales. Forecast of New Home Sales Downgraded, Existing Home Sales Upgraded – Fannie Mae
• NAR Real Estate Forecast Summit – NAR
• Will home prices drop in 2024? Even as buyer demand has slowed, extremely low supply has kept home prices from falling. Prices increased a bit in 2023, and they’ll probably go up in 2024, as well. Most major forecasts predict that home prices will end 2024 between 2% and 4.8% higher than the year before. – Business Insider
• Housing market predictions 2024: What homebuyers should know. In 2024, homebuyers can expect high home prices and slightly lower mortgage rates later in the year. Hopeful buyers should start preparing as early as possible by saving money and improving their credit. Look into affordable mortgage programs and down payment assistance to boost affordability. – Business Insider  
• When Will the Housing Market Crash? Economists Don’t Foresee It in 2024. Experts overwhelmingly say that the housing market isn’t going to crash anytime soon. The last housing crash helped cause today’s lack of supply, which is what’s keeping prices from falling. Mortgage rates, however, are expected to fall this year. This will help make homeownership more affordable. – Business Insider
• NMHC: “Apartment Market Conditions Continue to Loosen”. Leading indicator for Rents and Apartment Vacancies suggests more weakness for Apartments – Calculated Risk
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.89 million SAAR in June. Median House Prices Increased 4.1% Year-over-Year – Calculated Risk
• Existing Home Sales Continued to Pull Back Amid Record High Prices – NAHB
• New Home Sales Decrease to 617,000 Annual Rate in June. Median New Home Price is Down 9% from the Peak – Calculated Risk
• Profit Margins for U.S. Home Sellers Mostly Unchanged During Second Quarter Despite Renewed Price Spike – ATTOM
• There’s a shift happening in some housing markets—just look at inventory. Florida and Idaho join Texas in hitting pre-pandemic inventory milestones—and some other states aren’t too far behind. – Fast Company
• Watch Months-of-Supply! – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

• Housing and the American Worker – AEI
• Soaring Cost of Insurance and Property Tax Is the Top Risk for Triggering Mortgage Delinquencies, Survey Finds – Realtor.com
• Secret #69 – NAR Considers Landlord-Ownership to be “Home Ownership” – Real Estate Decoded
• Secret #70 – What You Can Do to Increase Home Ownership – Real Estate Decoded
• Secret #71 – Congress Almost Prevented 500,000 Foreclosures but the Financial Industry Stopped Them – Real Estate Decoded
• Secret #72 – Most Developers Today Don’t Want to Build Inexpensive Houses. They Want to Build More Profitable Houses – Real Estate Decoded
• The Cost of Luxury Homes in Every State – Yahoo Finance
• Mercatus Center Study Documents Progress on Housing Reform. Many states have enacted laws curbing exclusionary zoning and other regulations that block new housing construction. – Reason
• Lessons In Working With Institutional Real Estate Firms. Eight hard-won lessons from a decade working with 110+ of the largest global real estate owners and operators – Thesis Driven

On China:

• China’s Long Blueprint for Economy Falls Short on Details, Raising Concerns. Leadership in Beijing signals commitment to near-term growth, but leaves questions on entrenched debt and property problems – Wall Street Journal
• China Vows to Accelerate New Affordable-Housing Model. Steps up commitment to promote renting along with buying. Event also signals further loosening of home-buying measures – Bloomberg
• China’s Cement Boom Is Over. We Can All Breathe Easier. The industry’s collapse will lead to a more balanced economy, as well as a healthier planet. – Bloomberg
• China’s housing may get extra help by July’s end as policymakers strive to reverse slump. Policymakers, concerned about weak domestic demand, may ‘step up easing rhetoric and measures’ at this month’s Politburo meeting, Goldman Sachs says – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

• [Australia] NSW to trial prefabricated ‘modular homes’ to address housing crisis. Premier Chris Minns says announcement ‘an important milestone in our work to utilise nontraditional methods of delivering more homes sooner’ – The Guardian
• [Canada] Homebuyer FOMO Starts to Pump Up Canada’s Real Estate Market. Lower rates helped spur more sales, higher prices in June. ‘When the tide turns, and it will, it will turn fast’ – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong] Give Hong Kong private developers more incentives to join subsidised housing scheme: analysts. Experts also urge authorities to restore market confidence following failed first land bid under Private Subsidised Sale Flat Pilot Scheme – South China Morning Post
• [Jamaica] Jamaica’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Korea] Koreans Expect Hotter Housing Market in Worry for Central Bank. Bank of Korea wants to avoid rate cut sign fueling home prices. Overall consumer confidence rises and inflation outlook eases – Bloomberg
• [Panama] Panama’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Russia] How Vladimir Putin created a housing bubble. Prices have risen by 172% in Russia’s biggest cities over the past three years – The Economist
• [Singapore] Singapore to Introduce New Open-Plan Public Housing Layout – Bloomberg
• [Slovenia] Housing market challenges and policy options in Slovenia – OECD
• [Spain] The housing shortage – BBVA
• [Spain] Reasons behind the scarce supply of housing. Since 2021 housing starts have been lower than homes created. Factors that could limit housing supply include a shortage of land ready to start new developments, regulatory uncertainty and labor shortages. Measures are needed to boost residential construction and rental supply. – BBVA
• [United Kingdom] Nimby Wastelands Are Holding Britain Back. To solve its housing shortage, England needs to puts its grey and unpleasant land to use. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Nationwide first big lender to offer sub-4% mortgage deal in months. Rate will only be available to buyers and not customers switching home loan products – FT
• [United Kingdom] Fixed-rate mortgages below 4% back on sale in UK. Brokers hope Nationwide’s mortgage deal is sign of ‘summer of savings’ for homebuyers – The Guardian
• [Vietnam] Vietnam’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide