The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• In the first quarter of 2025, global real house prices fell by 1.0% year on year (yoy), representing a slower pace of decline compared with the second half of 2024 (–1.6%). Prices in advanced economies continued to recover, rising by 1.2% yoy. Meanwhile, emerging market economies experienced a slower decrease, mainly driven by a continued fall in Asia. – BIS
• Why South Korea and Japan are turning against foreign homebuyers. South Koreans and Japanese are understandably irked by the ease with which foreigners can acquire real estate when locals are struggling – South China Morning Post

Working papers and conferences:

• Conference: Opening Doors: Data and Analytics Shedding Light on Housing Challenges – Reserve Bank of Australia
• Does rent control increase tenant unemployment? – Journal of Urban Economics
• Precision Without Labels: Detecting Cross-Applicants in Mortgage Data Using Unsupervised Learning – Philadelphia Fed

On China:

• China’s Social Housing Policies Steer Local Government and LGFV Investment – Fitch

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Australia house prices climb in August as demand outstrips supply, Cotality says – Reuters
• [Australia] Australia Home Prices Rise for Seventh Month After Rate Cuts – Bloomberg
• [Australia] House prices to set to jump after months of steady growth – Financial Review
• [Australia] Housing pain looms this spring as first-home buyers fight investors. Rate cuts, strong demand and a lack of supply will turn the traditional spring selling season into a pitched battle for the same homes. It will end in tears. – Financial Review
• [New Zealand] New Zealand Home-Building Approvals Stuck in 15-Month Slumber – Bloomberg 
• [New Zealand] New Zealand reverses course to let some foreign investors buy homes – Reuters
• [New Zealand] New Zealand Opens Luxury Home Market to Golden-Visa Holders – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Drop to Two-Year Low in Weak Economy – Bloomberg 

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Toronto Home Prices Keep Sliding as Buyers See Jump in Listings – Bloomberg 
• [Costa Rica] Costa Rica’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Egypt] Egypt scraps decades-old rent caps, fuelling eviction fears – Reuters
• [France] France’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Hungary] Hungary’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [India] India Affordable Housing – 2025. This report examines supply-side challenges in India’s affordable housing sector and puts forth viable suggestions to address them – Knight Frank
• [Israel] Israel’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Ireland] Ireland’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Mexico] La crisis de la vivienda detrás de las protestas contra la gentrificación en México. En Monterrey o Ciudad de México, los precios de compra y renta de vivienda se han triplicado en la última década, motivados por un rezago habitacional en deuda – El Pais
• [Spain] Hasta 23 euros por un metro cuadrado de alquiler: así se han disparado los precios en cinco años – El Pais
• [Thailand] Thailand’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices unexpectedly fell in August, Nationwide data shows – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices in surprise fall amid high mortgage costs. Average price for a home drops by 0.1% to £271,079 in August compared with July, according to Nationwide – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK lenders approved most mortgages in six months in July – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] UK lenders approved most mortgages for six months in July, says BoE. Data points to continued recovery in property transactions – FT
• [United Kingdom] Ministers urged to put brakes on offices in England being turned into homes. Housing providers and charities want development rights abolished amid concern over lack of affordable homes – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Making British homes affordable again. Politicians have long blamed a housing shortage for soaring prices, but it is tax reform that can make the market less dysfunctional – FT

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Mortgage Refinancing Starts to Thaw as Rates Trend Down. It has been a frustrating wait for people who bought homes in the past few years, when mortgage rates have been high – Wall Street Journal
• Mortgages Could Shrug Off a Fed Cut—but Not This One – Barron’s
• House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: Second Quarter 2025 – NAHB
• US Housing Outlook – Apollo
• The U.S. housing market is ‘finally starting to listen’ to homebuyers plagued by high mortgage rates and home prices, economist says – Fortune

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Homebuilder inventory hits 2009 levels—creating deals in these housing markets. A record 121,000 completed single-family homes sat unsold in July, as affordability challenges weigh on buyers in key Sun Belt markets. – Fast Company
• Forget YIMBY. The housing shortage could disappear on its own. Demographic shifts and construction surges are likely to resolve the housing crisis without federal intervention. – Washington Post
• The 5 most competitive housing markets in America right now — and the 5 least. Some cities are still seeing bidding wars — but others are flooded with inventory – Quartz
• June Private Residential Construction Spending Edges Higher – NAHB
• U.S. construction spending fell in July amid a slow housing market. Construction spending was down 2.8% year-over-year in July, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau – Quartz
• The Mobile Home Comeback: New California Program Offers Cash To Repair or Replace Aging Homes – Realtor.com
• Open Construction Jobs Rise in July – NAHB
• How We Are Working to Increase the Multifamily Housing Supply – Freddie Mac
• Congress continues to advance significant housing supply incentives – JP Morgan Chase

On other developments:    

• Bubble thought: What beliefs can reveal about housing market risks – Dallas Fed
• Dynamic Tables: Comparing Cities – Home Economics
• Trump May Declare a National Housing Emergency: What to Know – Time
• Bessent: Everything on table for housing affordability fixes – Axios
• Bessent says Trump administration will tackle high housing costs with new measures – Reuters
• Trump wants to ax an affordable housing grant, a lifeline for many rural communities – Los Angeles Times   
• Trump Considers Declaring National Housing Emergency This Fall – Realtor.com
• Yes, America Has a Housing Emergency. But Trump will make it worse – Paul Krugman
• The Trump Administration’s Fake Housing Emergency. The results of America’s overly burdensome housing regulations aren’t great. But they’re not an “emergency.” – Reason
• The Face of Homeownership in the U.S. is Getting Older—What You Need to Know – Realtor.com
• There’s a housing market shift afoot—just ask Realtors. Among real estate agents that Zoodealio and ResiClub surveyed, 81% say buyers are gaining leverage in their local housing market—that share is even higher among agents based in the Southwest (96%). – Fast Company
• NAHB HBGI:  Relative Gains for Smaller Markets, Particularly for Multifamily – NAHB
• America is escaping its office crisis. The torment caused by covid-19 and high interest rates appears to be over – The Economist
• Cruel Summer: Why the U.S. Housing Market Is Stuck – Realtor.com
• Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” and the Affordable Housing Crisis: A Closer Look –CEPR
• U.S. Housing Costs to Return to ‘Normal’ by 2030 With Stable Price Growth and Moderately Lower Rates – Realtor.com
• The ‘abundance movement’ needs to help distressed places, not just booming ones – Brookings 
• Strong Foundations: A Playbook for Housing and Economic Growth – AEI
• Wall Street Is Killing the Housing Market. Investment giants are buying up homes and pricing real people out of the market. But it doesn’t have to be this way. – Inequality.org
• I Did My Dissertation on Housing Displacement. Then I Experienced It Myself. If someone like me can get trapped in the cycle of housing instability, anyone can. But the solutions are out there. – Inequality.org
• Metro Area Growth at Risk from Recent Drop in Immigration – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• California and Florida Top New List of the Riskiest Housing Markets in the Nation – Realtor.com

From a paper by Ali Soltani, Alireza Dehghani, and Parviz Azizi:

“Urban expansion has traditionally been studied in terms of horizontal sprawl, overlooking the role of vertical densification. This paper adopts a volumetric approach to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban growth in the Tehran Metropolitan Region (TMR) from 1985 to 2024, addressing two key objectives: (a) to examine border patterns of volumetric growth, demographic shifts, and intra-urban variations, and (b) to identify the underlying drivers of volumetric expansion. Using Landsat imagery, Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) data, and population statistics from the Statistical Center of Iran, we apply spatial-statistical methods and the XGBoost-SHAP machine learning framework to assess urban expansion patterns and their driving forces. Our findings reveal a transition from vertical densification to horizontal sprawl, with urban expansion increasingly adopting an outward trajectory. Intra-urban analysis uncovers a diffusion-coalescence pattern, where vertical densification often follows horizontal expansion but can also occur concurrently. While older urban segments continue to densify vertically due to land scarcity, newly developed areas exhibit distinct volumetric characteristics, reflecting a cyclical interplay between centralization and decentralization. The XGBoost-SHAP analysis highlights a shift in driving forces from spatial inertia to population-driven growth and, more recently, to economic and geographic constraints. By integrating remote sensing, spatial analysis, and machine learning, this study provides a systematic and data-driven framework for understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban expansion and its underlying drivers. The findings underscore the importance of integrated urban planning strategies that balance vertical and horizontal growth, optimize land use, and enhance sustainability. Incorporating volumetric analysis into planning frameworks can foster more adaptive, resource-efficient, and resilient urban development.”

From a paper by José Alberto Fuinhas, Daniela Castilho, Volkan Kaymaz, and Matheus Koengkan:

“In this empirical investigation, the influence of tourism on housing prices was studied for 13 European Union countries from 2005 to 2019 using cs-ARDL and Quantile cs-ARDL econometric approaches. The findings reveal a positive effect running from the tourism sector (represented by tourism revenues and the number of arrivals) to housing price indices, indicating that this industry significantly impacts real estate markets. Moreover, the results show that economic growth, bank credit, and population growth drive house prices. These outcomes have significant implications for policymakers, highlighting the dual nature of tourism’s impact and the need for a careful balance between promoting tourism as an economic strategy and ensuring housing affordability for residents.”

On cross-country:

• 2025 Global Housing and Mortgage Outlook Mid-Year Update – Fitch
• A broken housing market is driving inequality right across Europe – and fuelling the far right. From Lisbon to Amsterdam, housing policy has led to haves and have-nots. But, as our new series uncovers, it doesn’t have to be this way – The Guardian

Working papers and conferences:

• Mortgage Market Structure and the Transmission of Monetary Policy During the Great Inflation – VoxEU
• Central Bank Communication and House Price Expectations – SSRN
• Housing Market Spillovers in China via Trading Volume: A Comparison of Two Spillover Indexes – SSRN
• Chinese Housing Market Sentiment Index: A Generative Ai Approach – SSRN 
• Residential real estate (RRE) lending standards: determinants and financial stability implications – ECB

On China:

• China rolls out official ‘property supermarkets’ to prop up creaking housing market. Proponents say these property hubs make transactions more centralised and trustworthy as they are vetted by local governments – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Home construction must double over next decade to restore 2019 affordability: CMHC – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Housing shortages in Canada – CMHC
• [Canada] Updating Canada’s housing supply shortages: new housing supply gap estimates – CMHC
• [Canada] CMHC gives up on comparing housing affordability to 2004 levels – Globe and Mail  
• [Canada] Doubling Home Construction Will Barely Improve Affordability in Canada: CMHC – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canada home prices to decline 2% as trade war hits homebuyer confidence – Reuters
• [France] French Housing Loans Recovery Underway but Remains Fragile – Fitch Ratings
• [Hong Kong] Despite property market slump, Hong Kong must increase housing supply. Government should not repeat post-1997 mistake of shelving plans to increase long-term housing supply because of a temporary market dip – South China Morning Post
• [Hong Kong] The Hong Kong property developer rushing to refinance billions of dollars in loans. New World’s negotiations with banks come after years of ambitious debt-fuelled expansion – FT
• [Portugal] Foreigners pay twice as much as locals to buy Portugal homes – Bloomberg
• [South Korea] South Korea to Announce Measures to Cool House Prices, Yonhap – Bloomberg
• [Spain] La crisis de la vivienda también impacta en el empleo: reducir un 30% el precio crearía 410.000 trabajos. La rebaja inyectaría en la economía 25.000 millones de euros en cinco años, ya que las familias podrían consumir más, según un informe de CC OO – El Pais
• [United Kingdom] UK ministers urged to ‘get on’ with stronger homebuyer protections. Consumer group warns people have more rights buying a toaster than a new house – FT
• [United Kingdom] Interest-only mortgage could make comeback as regulator revisits rules. Financial Conduct Authority looks at whether the product it once called a ‘ticking timebomb’ can support home ownership – The Guardian