The Unassuming Economist

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Sunderji’s Paradox. Why rising incomes never seem to make rent more affordable – Home Economics
• The Condo Crisis. Prices are falling in most major metros – Home Economics
• Hartford tops Zillow’s forecast for hottest housing markets in 2026. Tight inventory is expected to define the most competitive markets in the year ahead. – Zillow
• Homes are on track to be affordable in 20 major US markets by year’s end. After years of strain, buyers should see small affordability wins this year – Zillow
• Inflation Outlook: It Is Not All About Housing – Apollo
• The Housing Markets Seeing the Sharpest Home Price Declines – Realtor.com
• February ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Home price growth slowed to its weakest pace in more than a decade”. Several Southern markets now have 10%+ mortgaged homes underwater – Calculated Risk
• Weaker Demand, Unchanged Lending Conditions for Residential Mortgages in Fourth Quarter – NAHB
• Trump wants lower mortgage rates. His Fed pick may push the other way. Kevin Warsh has long criticized the Fed’s $6.6 trillion balance sheet, arguing it distorts markets. Shrinking it could put upward pressure on mortgage rates. – Washington Post
• Where Are Mortgage Delinquencies Rising the Most? – New York Fed

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• The Size of the Housing Shortage: 2024 Data – NAHB
• The Sun Belt goes Vertical. A million new apartments, but still behind where coastal cities started. – Home Economics
• 2026 Housing Market Mood: Buyers Are Cautious, Sellers Are Showing Up, and Agents See Signs of Busier Spring Ahead – Redfin
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January – Calculated Risk
• Why Building Alone Won’t Solve the Housing Crisis. An imbalance in the kind of housing getting built and rising insurance costs are impeding housing progress, according to two new reports. – New York Times
• Developers are converting empty office buildings to keep up with demand for housing – NPR
• How Hosting the Super Bowl Signals a San Francisco Real Estate Renaissance – Realtor.com 
• Proposed Ban on Investors in the Housing Market Hits a Wall in Congress. White House is pressuring GOP in Congress to add an investor ban to existing housing bills, but lawmakers have pushed back – Wall Street Journal
• Foreclosure Activity Rises Annually for the Eleventh Straight Month, Extending the Trend into 2026 – ATTOM
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January – Calculated Risk

On other developments:    

• House Passes Major Housing Bill Aimed at Home Affordability and To Speed Up Construction – Realtor.com
• What Is the Housing for the 21st Century Act? – Realtor.com
• On housing, Trump’s problem isn’t willpower. It’s time. Some White House allies acknowledge what they face in the coming months is less a policy fight than a messaging battle on housing. – Politico
• Will Trump’s Order on Housing Help? – New York Times
• The Right Fix for Affordable Housing Finally Hit Congress – Bloomberg  
• California’s blockbuster housing legislation faces rocky rollout. State Sen. Scott Wiener, the author of Senate Bill 79, has not ruled out postponing the July 1 implementation date for the new law because of widespread confusion over what it requires. – Politico
• Unaffordable Housing Impacts How Americans Consume, Work and Invest. As housing prices climb out of reach, discouraged Americans may be reaching for crypto and other risky investments. – Bloomberg
• Maybe America Needs Some New Cities. It sounds a bit kooky to promise a whole city from scratch. But it has been done before — and might just help solve the housing crisis. – New York Times
• Two Decades of Zillow Data Show How the U.S. Housing Market Has Changed Since 2006. How shifting prices, rising housing wealth and a deepening supply gap have reshaped housing over the past 20 years – Zillow
• Homebuyers Are Gaining Leverage as Housing Market Cools—Giving Them More Time To Purchase – Realtor.com
• Is there an affordability crisis? – EconoFact Chats
• Trump housing policy is a mess and it won’t fix the US housing crisis. Deregulation alone can’t make homes affordable when rising inequality, not zoning, is what is driving prices up – The Guardian
• Is the Starter Home Making a Comeback? – Realtor.com
• Hearing on “Homeownership and the Role of the Secondary Mortgage Market”. History has proven that financial markets will provide funds for housing without the federal government socializing investors’ losses. – Cato

On cross-country:

• Housing Europe President: the answer to a structural crisis caused by a market failure cannot be entrusted to the market itself. At the start of 2026, a year crucial for housing policy, Housing Europe’s President, Marco Corradi shares his thoughts on how we can guide Europe home. – Housing Europe
• Many Victorian cities grew by tenfold in a century. Could ours do the same? – The Works in Progress Newsletter

Working papers and conferences:

• Seminar: Competitive Human Capital Investment: Evidence from Housing Prices and Educational Expenditures on February 20 – Stanford University
• 5th Workshop on Residential Housing: Research Frontiers in Climate Risks and Affordability – University of Cambridge
• Creating High-Opportunity Neighborhoods: Evidence from the HOPE VI Program – NBER
• The Macroeconomic Effects of Neighborhood Policies: a Dynamic Analysis – NBER
• Housing Affordability and Housing Demand – San Francisco Fed

On China:

• China’s measures to shore up its indebted property sector – Reuters

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Australia spends more on tax breaks for landlords than social housing, homelessness and rent assistance combined – The Guardian
• [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices hit 30-month low as buyers hold back – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Canada] The numbers don’t lie: The housing crisis is not caused by a supply shortage. Financialization, not demographics, caused the cost of housing to explode – Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s Housing Market Rebounds With Renewed City Buzz – Bloomberg
• [Korea] Apartment Prices Have Risen Every Single Week for a Year in Seoul. Seoul’s real estate rally is frustrating young workers who see the bottom rung of the property ladder float out of reach. – Bloomberg
• [Korea] Seoul Apartment Prices Rise Further Even as Lee Hardens Resolve – Bloomberg
• [Portugal] Brussels admits that Portugal is “one of the countries most affected” by the housing crisis in the EU. Brussels estimates that housing prices in Portugal are overvalued by 25%, the highest percentage in the European Union – ENR
• [Sweden] Erik Thedéen: Weak consumption and the housing market – causes and lessons learnt – Sveriges Riksbank
• [United Kingdom] London’s high land prices need ‘market adjustment’, says housing minister. Matthew Pennycook says far-reaching reform is needed to ‘get more volume out of the system’ and deliver more homes – FT
• [United Kingdom] Leaseholds and fleeceholds are a blot on the UK housing market. If more homes are to be built, the problem of rogue estate management companies has to be addressed – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Rebound at Start of 2026, Nationwide Says – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Santander launches 98% mortgage for first-time buyers. Move by one of the biggest UK lenders broadens options available to low-deposit borrowers – FT
• [United Kingdom] Who killed the British flat? The government needs to revive the appeal of flats — but capping ground rents at £250 a year won’t cut it – FT
• [United Kingdom] Demand for UK rental properties drops as buying becomes more affordable. Falling levels of immigration also reduce competition among tenants – FT

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Trump’s Pick for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Has an Unusual Plan To Lower Mortgage Rates – Realtor.com
• Mortgages won’t fix what ails housing. Economists keep repeating a message that nobody seems to want to hear: Financing gimmicks can’t solve a problem that’s fundamentally about math – Quartz
• Homeowners Are Falling Behind on Their Mortgages – Realtor.com
• Mortgage Applications Today: Demand Drops Again as Experts Blame Decline on Historic Winter Storms – Realtor.com
• Home Prices Five Years After Covid. Synchronicity and idiosyncrasy – Home Economics
• Trump: ‘I Want To Drive Housing Prices Up’. The president says he would rather increase prices for homeowners than drive prices down. – Reason
• Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year – Calculated Risk  

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Why Trump’s crackdown on big investors in housing may backfire. Curbing institutional ownership of single-family homes does not tackle the affordability crisis and could make things worse – FT
• The Housing Market Is Slumping—but Sales Over $10 Million Are Skyrocketing. The broader real-estate market has struggled under the weight of higher mortgage rates. Meanwhile, the high end is surging. – Wall Street Journal
• The Housing Market Is Swinging Toward Buyers. Nearly two-thirds of home buyers last year purchased at a discount to the original listing price, the highest proportion since 2019 – Wall Street Journal
• U.S. Population Growth Slows in 2025 – NAHB
• Will expanding the capital gains exclusion unlock housing supply? Evidence on who benefits – Brookings 
• Final Look at Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales. Altos: Active single-family inventory was down 0.2% week-over-week – Calculated Risk
• Atlanta City Limits. What’s preventing the metro from growing? – Home Economics
• Homeowners Are Holding on to Their Homes Longer Than Ever—Especially in Coastal States – Realtor.com  
• Home Builders Turn to White House for Help on Inventory Glut. Companies devising a plan for a federally backed ‘rent-to-own’ program to help reduce the biggest surplus of homes in many years – Wall Street Journal
• Fannie Mae Expands U.S. Rental Housing Supply Through Nearly $74 Billion in Multifamily Loan Production Volume in 2025 – Fannie Mae
• Why Trump’s crackdown on big investors in housing may backfire. Curbing institutional ownership of single-family homes does not tackle the affordability crisis and could make things worse – FT
• Are YIMBYs winning the housing wars? Not so fast, these people say. Supply skeptics contend housing affordability calls for government policies, not just market forces. – Washington Post

On other developments:    

• What Tearing Down Housing Projects Did for Kids. Bringing rich and poor together has major benefits. – The Atlantic
• Knocking down social housing helped poor children prosper. New research shows the impact of mixed-income developments – The Economist
• New research examines long-term effects of federal housing program from the ’90s – NPR   
• Housing (Un)affordability: New Reports Shed New Light on the Problem. I’m especially convinced that with better policy, we could improve our uniquely dismal construction productivity. – Jared Bernstein
• Trump’s Plan to Make Housing Affordable Is Faltering – Bloomberg
• Trump can still do more to address affordability. Tax cuts and deregulation will fuel growth and help lower home prices. – Washington Post
• Voters Say Housing Prices Are Too High. Trump Wants Them Higher. When President Trump said he wanted to drive housing prices up, not down, he was speaking to a conundrum that has flummoxed policymakers for decades. – New York Times
• Congress Targets Housing Crisis as Solutions Elude Trump. Bipartisan Senate and House packages, aimed at rewarding new construction and eliminating red tape, could bring significant changes to federal housing laws. – New York Times
• House Republicans eye next week for housing bill vote. The Housing for the 21st Century Act is part of a push by Congress to pass legislation that could address a growing housing affordability crisis. – Politico
• The contradictions of the housing affordability dilemma – Axios
• Why nobody really knows the scale of the U.S. housing crisis. Experts say the U.S. needs an additional 2 million to 20 million homes to fix the shortfall, underscoring the challenge of meeting the nation’s housing needs. – Washington Post
• Do More Deportations Mean Lower Housing Costs? The Trump administration says its crackdown on immigration is reducing housing prices. Economists say other factors such as oversupply matter more. – Wall Street Journal
• Bridging Rent and Ownership: Can the “Trump Homes” Proposal Fix America’s Housing Shortage? – The People’s Economist with Anthony Chan
• Affordable Housing Starts in the Labor Market – Bloomberg
• The hidden double standards driving our housing crisis. Apartments are safer and more affordable than single-family homes. Why do we treat them like a hazard? – Vox
• Housing Unaffordability Soared to New Highs in 2024 – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in December. Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Near Housing Bust High – Calculated Risk
• Democrats knock Trump’s pledge to ‘drive housing prices up’ – The Hill
•  AI is Powering a Silicon Valley Housing Rebound. The areas gaining fastest are the ones where tech workers live – Home Economics
• U.S. Homeowner Equity Eases Slightly in Q4 2025 While Seriously Underwater Rates Stay Near Historic Lows – ATTOM
• Home Price Growth in Opportunity Zones Slightly Behind Rest of Nation in Second Quarter – ATTOM
• Homeownership Rate Inches Up to 65.7% – NAHB
• Black Gen Zers and Millennials Are Half As Likely to Own Their Home As White Counterparts – Redfin  
• The Millennial Homeownership Problem Is Mostly a Marriage Problem. Married Millennials who head their own households own at nearly the same rate as Boomers. There are just far fewer of them. – Home Economics

Working papers and conferences:

• The Geographic and Economic Implications of Working from Home – Philadelphia Fed
• The Risks and Rewards of Homeownership – NBER
• How are Prices Determined in the Airbnb Market? – SSRN
• Spatial Distribution of Housing Liquidity – SSRN
• Monetary Policy Shocks and Local Housing Markets – SSRN

On China:

• China’s property slump deepens—and threatens more than the housing sector – Atlantic Council
• At World’s Busiest Port, China’s Unbalanced Economy Comes Into View. The shipping traffic and factories never stop in China’s port city of Ningbo, but the local housing market has crashed and nearby restaurants sit empty. – New York Times

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [New Zealand] Biggest bank downgrades house price forecast – RNZ

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Economist sees subdued 2026 in the housing market as condos drag – Globe and Mail
• [Croatia] Addressing housing challenges in Croatia: an OECD perspective – Institute of Public Finance
• [Ireland] The Irish Times view on house price growth: slowing, but not fast enough. The challenge for the Coalition in 2026 is to show they have momentum in infrastructure and housing delivery – The Irish Times
• [Korea] South Korea to Fast-Track Housing Supply in Seoul to Cool Prices – Bloomberg
• [Malaysia] Malaysia’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Philippines] Philippines’ Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] What’s A Major Tax Shake-Up Is Changing the Way Londoners Buy Homes. Punishing taxes and rising fees are pushing buyers to abandon flats for houses—and reshaping the city’s housing market – Wall Street Journal
• [United Kingdom] Rent in London’s Poshest Postcodes Falls for the First Time in Four Years – Bloomberg
• [United Arab Emirates] United Arab Emirates’ Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [United Arab Emirates] U.K. Property Market Recovers Post-Budget Jitters But Price Growth Still Slow. House prices rose 1.2% last year but were below the 1.9% increase in 2024, according to a Zoopla report – Wall Street Journal
• [United Kingdom] ‘Absurd’: decent homes standard for England’s private renters will not be enforced until 2035. Campaigners say government is letting landlords ‘drag their feet’ and ‘denying renters the most basic standards’ – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK’s Zoopla says house buyer demand has risen since November budget – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] U.K. Property Market Recovers Post-Budget Jitters But Price Growth Still Slow. House prices rose 1.2% last year but were below the 1.9% increase in 2024, according to a Zoopla report – Wall Street Journal  

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in November
• FHFA House Prices up 1.9% YoY in November – Calculated Risk
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below 2022 Peak. Price-to-rent index is 9.6% below 2022 peak – Calculated Risk
• Home Prices Rose to Record Highs in 2025 as Affordability Challenge Looms – ATTOM
• Back to the Suburbs: Bay Area Edition. Suburban home prices are rising faster than urban ones – Home Economics
• Is your backyard heating up in 2026? Check Zillow’s hottest markets list. – Zillow
• Zillow’s Best Markets for Home Buyers in 2026: Where Buyers Have Leverage and Upside – Zillow
• The Winter 2026 Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com Housing Market Ranking – Realtor.com
• Mortgage Applications Today: Record-Low Mortgage Rates Spark Home Lending and Refinancing Surge – Realtor.com 
• NMHC on Apartments: “Lower rent growth and higher vacancies” in Q4. Leading indicator for Rents and Apartment Vacancies Negative in Q4 – Calculated Risk
• Trump’s mortgage-backed bond purchases not moving needle on housing costs – Reuters
• Homebuying and Selling Activity Show Signs of Life Amid Lower Mortgage Rates – Redfin
• Buying a House Has Become Less Affordable. A 50-Year Mortgage Is Not the Answer. – AEI
• US single-family home prices jump in November, FHFA says – Reuters

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Will Banning Corporate Homebuyers Make Housing More Affordable? The Trump administration has moved to restrict institutional investors’ home purchases and proposed allowing buyers to draw on retirement savings for down payments. We asked Professor Cameron LaPoint, who studies housing finance, whether these policies are likely to make housing more affordable—or to push prices higher. – Yale Insights 
• These Developers Stand to Win in Trump’s Housing-Investor Crackdown. The build-to-rent business looks poised to take off after Trump exempted this industry from his regulations on large investors – Wall Street Journal
• December 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• Pool Permitting Falls Lower In 2025 – NAHB
• 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December – Calculated Risk
• Remodeling Growth Set to Downshift in Late 2026 – Joint Center for Housing Studies 

On other developments:    

• How Remaking the Neighborhood Could Boost Poor Kids’ Futures. A 1990s initiative to replace housing projects with mixed-income developments gave children an economic lift as adults, new research finds – Wall Street Journal
• Population Growth Slows to a Crawl. Less international migration, less domestic migration, fewer births, and more deaths – Home Economics
• What Explains Low Millennial Home Ownership? Lifestyle and affordability – Home Economics
• The Price of Endless Summer. California is experiencing large migration outflows. The high cost of housing is the main driver. – Home Economics
• Is this a Weird Housing Market? It sure feels like one – Home Economics
• The Hidden Risk to the Housing Market – New York Times
• There’s a practical way to lower housing prices. Democrats should seize it. Affordability is a goal, not a policy. – Washington Post 
• Event: Creating high-opportunity neighborhoods: Lessons from HOPE VI on February 2 – Brookings
• December 2025 Luxury Housing Report: Where the Gap Between Median and Luxury is the Widest – Realtor.com
• Here’s How the Housing Market Has Changed Over the Past 10 Years – Realtor.com
• Addressing the US Affordability Crisis – Signal Versus Reality. The Trump administration has announced a range of measures aimed at addressing affordability in the run up to this year’s midterm elections including housing, healthcare and consumer finances. In our view, these initiatives are unlikely to materially alter the near-term inflation outlook – Nomura
• Who Should Shoulder the Tax Burden in a Resort Town? There’s no easy answer as Massachusetts communities contemplate changing taxes for part-time residents. – New York Times
• How Trump Could Actually Fix Housing Market. Washington needs to unlock capital through deregulation. – Wall Street Journal
• Portland’s housing crisis squeezes middle-income buyers – Axios
• Trump Wants to Fix the Broken US Housing Market. Can He Succeed? – Bloomberg
• Something Weird Is Happening in the Housing Market. After the pandemic, many younger Americans were encouraged to buy housing in “starter cities.” But now the homes are losing value, and property taxes are soaring, pitching the housing market into crisis. – Jacobin