The Unassuming Economist

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• House Prices to Income. New Data for 2024 Wages Released In October – Calculated Risk
• Easing Rates, Limited Relief: U.S. Housing’s Gradual Recovery – TD
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in September. Punta Gorda House Prices Down Over 20% from Recent Peak – Calculated Risk
• Lowest Mortgage Rates in Over a Year in October – NAHB
• Falling Mortgage Rates Boost Housing Market for Now—as Government Shutdown Enters Second Month, Clouding Outlook – Realtor.com
• Risky Loan From Housing-Bust Era Is Making a Comeback. Buyers embrace adjustable-rate mortgages, chancing higher payments later for lower ones now – Wall Street Journal
• Bessent says high US interest rates may have caused housing recession – Reuters
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• The 5 best cities in America for renters — and 5 where you should buy instead. Some U.S. cities reward renting, others make buying the smarter bet. Here’s where the numbers favor each move, according to new 2025 data – Quartz
• Lawler: Single-Family Rent Trends at INVH and AMH – Calculated Risk
• Q3 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Increase Slightly – Calculated Risk
• Home Price Growth in Opportunity Zones Slightly Behind Rest of Nation in Second Quarter – ATTOM

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• More Home Purchases Are Falling Through in an Uncertain Economy. Buyers worried about job prospects are getting cold feet, or realizing that costs will be higher than expected – Wall Street Journal
• October 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• Bedrooms in New Single-Family Homes in 2024 – NAHB
• Builders Are Offering Mortgage Rate Discounts. Home Buyers Aren’t Biting. New homes are sitting unsold, despite the discounted mortgages that builders are offering – Wall Street Journal
• Multifamily Developer Confidence Increases in Third Quarter, But Still in Negative Territory – NAHB
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October – Calculated Risk

On other developments:    

• What Will It Take to Solve America’s Housing Crisis? New research from Wharton’s Joseph Gyourko looks back 50 years to explain why home prices are so high now. – Wharton
• Housing Inequality Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better – Bloomberg
• Government Shutdown Forces Homebuyers Back Onto Sidelines in Hardest Hit Markets – Realtor.com
• Stabilization and Speculation. Struggles over New York City’s housing policy – Phenomenal World
• Why American Housing Markets Have Stalled – Forbes
• Mamdani Has a Point About Rent Control. In an interview, the candidate argued that the policy is essential to get voters on board with pro-housing reforms. – The Atlantic
• New York Real Estate Expert Warns Mayoral Election Will ‘Change Everything’ for Housing—but Insists Residents Shouldn’t ‘Panic’ – Realtor.com
• Rising Unemployment Could Worsen Young Adults’ Housing Challenges – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Prospects for Improving Housing Affordability – Econofact
• Zohran Mamdani Wins New York City Mayoral Election—After Promising Sweeping Tax and Housing Changes – Realtor.com
• Homeownership costs, dropping home values hit Black households hardest. Minority households are more likely to be cost-burdened, spending more than 30% of their income on mortgage, property taxes and insurance – Zillow
• What Do Home Mortgage Disclosure Act Data Tell Us about the Southeast? – Atlanta Fed
• The Folly of ‘Affordability’ Politics. Americans are understandably frustrated by higher prices. But politicians like Zohran Mamdani, who promise to lower costs instantly, are selling economic fantasies. – The Free Press
• Sell or Stay? The High-Stakes Decision Facing Real Estate Investors – Realtor.com
• New Yorkers Pass Ballot Measures Tackling City’s Housing Crunch. The proposals aim to accelerate development and boost affordable housing. – Bloomberg
• Housing in Recession: Interest Rates or Policy Uncertainty – Econbrowser

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Identifying Undervalued ZIPs – Home Economics
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in August. FHFA House Prices up 2.3% YoY in August – Calculated Risk
• US single-family home prices increase in August, FHFA says – Reuters
• Home Price Growth Slows – NAHB
• US single-family home prices increase in August, FHFA says – Reuters
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.8% Below 2022 Peak. Price-to-rent index is 10.2% below 2022 peak – Calculated Risk
• Lower Interest Rates Fail to Offset Effects of High Home Prices – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Home Prices Likely Cooled in August. That’s Good News for Some Buyers. – Barron’s
• Distribution of Mortgage Rates – Apollo
• NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions “Soften” in Q3. Leading indicator for Rents and Apartment Vacancies Negative in Q3 – Calculated Risk
• The market-defying appeal of assumable mortgages. Savvy buyers in the US are wising up to properties packaged up with a historic loan — and a surprisingly low interest rate – FT
• US Mortgage Rates Fall to 6.3%, Boosting Purchase Activity – Bloomberg

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Existing Home Sales Increase in September – NAHB
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.06 million SAAR in September. Median House Prices Increased 2.1% Year-over-Year – Calculated Risk
• Will New York Voters Choose to Speed Up Housing Construction? – New York Times
• Homebuilders push new frontier for Fannie and Freddie: Construction loans. The policy has had industry interest for years, but recent Trump posts may add – Politico
• A Better Way to Fix Housing. Rather than end the 30-year mortgage, why not build more units? – Wall Street Journal
• Final Look at Housing Markets in September and a Look Ahead to October Sales – Calculated Risk
• D.R. Horton Says Wary Buyers Will Continue Demanding Incentives. The home builder’s fourth-quarter gross margin on home sales fell to 20% from 21.8%, which it attributed mostly to offering larger incentives – Wall Street Journal
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in September. Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic) – Calculated Risk
• Pending Home Sales Flat Despite Lower Rates – Realtor.com
• Which Local Markets Track National Trends the Most: 2024 Single-Family MAI – NAHB
• California’s New Redistricting Maps Could Quietly Reshape Real Estate Markets – Realtor.com

On other developments:    

• The Fall 2025 Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com Housing Market Ranking – Realtor.com
• The Fed’s MBS Problem: How QE Helped Inflate Housing Markets – Cato
• The Debate Had a Lot of Housing Talk, but the Next Mayor Needs Bigger Ideas – New York Times
• Budget-Friendly Boston-Area Metro Remains the Top Affordable Housing Market in the U.S.  – Realtor.com 
• America’s Top Affordable Housing Market Revealed—5 Key Takeaways – Realtor.com
• ‘More Abundant, Diverse and Affordable’: Missing Middle Housing Proposed as Solution to Housing Crisis in Massachusetts – The Harvard Crimson
• September 2025 Luxury Housing Report: More for Your Money – Realtor.com
• Ranked: U.S. States With the Highest Homelessness Rates – Visual Capitalist
• Austin’s Housing Bust Is Just What America Needs – Bloomberg
• Stretched Thin: The Housing Cost Crisis – Boston Fed
• A Critique of the Urban Institute’s Panel Study on Land Use Reforms to Impact Housing Supply: Evidence of Severe Methodological Gaps – AEI
• The Great Housing Gridlock: Why It Could Spark The Next Market Shift – Seeking Alpha 
• The Hidden Cost of ‘Affordable Housing’. What happens when liberal cities try to circumvent the market – The Atlantic
• Buyers may soon lose their edge in Phoenix housing market – Axios
• How Federal Policy Locked Homeowners—and the Housing Market—in Place – Cato
• Zombie Foreclosure and Vacancy Rates Creep Down – ATTOM

On cross-country:

• EU finally takes ownership of housing crisis. The pressure is now on Brussels to adopt real measures — or risk pushing more voters into the arms of the far right. – Politico

Working papers and conferences:

• Is There a Puzzle in Underwater Mortgage Default? – Cleveland Fed
• Precision Without Labels Detecting Cross-Applicants in Mortgage Data Using Unsupervised Learning – Philadelphia Fed 
• The Social and Individual Effects of Homeless Shelter: Evidence from Temporary Shelter Provision – NBER

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Australian house prices rising at fastest rate in nearly four years, data shows. Brisbane overtakes Canberra as second-most expensive house market, after Sydney, with median prices rising by nearly $40,000 – The Guardian

On other countries:  

• [Aruba] Aruba’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Bahamas] The Bahamas Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Canada] Housing Market Monitor – National Bank of Canada
• [Canada] Canada: Home prices continue their moderate growth in September – National Bank of Canada
• [Cayman Islands] Cayman’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] Prime Scotland House Prices – Q3 2025 – Savills
• [United Kingdom] Prime London house prices – Q3 2025 – Savills
• [United Kingdom] Housing market slows amid fears Reeves will increase property taxes. Post-summer bounce in activity fails to materialise as buyers and sellers, in the south especially, opt to ‘wait and see’ – The Guardian

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Home Prices: Sept Update – Home Economics
• Zillow upgrades its outlook—here’s its home price forecast for more than 400 housing markets. Zillow slightly upgrades its national home price outlook—predicting that over the next 12 months, U.S. home prices are likely to rise 1.9%. – Fast Company
• The cities where home prices have changed the most (and least) over the past 130 years. Did your grandparents and great-grandparents really pay less for their homes than you did, even after inflation? The Department of Data might have the answer. – Washington Post
• Zohran Mamdani’s Socialist Housing Plan Could Crash New York’s Rickety Rental Market. The city has the nation’s most regulated housing sector and the largest stock of government-owned and subsidized housing, and yet progressives blame its real estate troubles on the free market. – Reason

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Non-Conventional Financing for New Home Sales Loses Ground in 2024 – NAHB
• California Home Sales Up 6.6% Year-over-year SAAR in September – Calculated Risk
• Median Age of Construction Labor Force Holds at 42 – NAHB
• Where are Porches Most Common for Newly-Built Homes? – NAHB
• The Outlook for US Housing Supply and Affordability – Goldman Sachs

On other developments:    

• Housing Market Stalls as Government Shutdown Drags On – Realtor.com
• Judge Blocks Federal Layoffs During Shutdown, Including Deep Cuts at HUD’s Fair Housing Office – Realtor.com
• New Housing Options Emerge for Older Americans. As people live longer, they are reimagining where and how they want to live – Wall Street Journal
• Is It Bad to Buy Into a Gentrified Neighborhood? I can finally afford to live in the area I once only dreamed of calling home. But I’m torn. – New York Times
• We Found a Solution to Homelessness. Now the Trump Administration Wants to Throw It Out. – New York Times
• September 2025 Rental Report: Rental Affordability Improved Compared to a Year Ago – Realtor.com
• My Generation: Blame the Rich, Not the Boomers – CEPR
• California’s Housing Market Amid Shutdown: 5 Key Takeaways – Realtor.com
• A real estate boom is coming — are you ready? – The Hill
• How COVID-19 Reshaped the U.S. Labor Market and Housing Demand – NAHB
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September – Calculated Risk
• Are You Paying More Than 30% of Income on Housing Costs? Recent census data shows that owning a home that is considered affordable is impossible in some areas. – New York Times

On cross-country:

• EU to propose short-term rental rules to tackle ‘social crisis’ in housing. Bloc’s first affordable housing plan to cover issues such as tenants’ rights, property speculation and tourist lets – The Guardian

Working papers and conferences:

• List prices and “hot” real estate markets – Real Estate Economics
• National Football League franchise departures and nearby home prices – Real Estate Economics
• The rise of corporate landlords: An examination of behavioral differences in the multifamily market – Real Estate Economics

On China:

• China sees better living environment, emerging new real estate model, stable construction growth in 2021-2025 – Xinhua
• China’s property managers pivot to elderly services and pet care amid real estate woes. Management firms explore new income streams as homeowners demand fee cuts amid falling property prices – South China Morning Post

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] RBA governor blames high house prices on a lack of supply, not monetary policy – The Guardian
• [New Zealand] Reserve Bank to ease LVR restrictions. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand intends to ease mortgage loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions from 1 December 2025. – Reserve Bank of New Zealand
• [New Zealand] What’s really going on with the housing market? – RNZ

On other countries:  

• [Argentina] Argentina Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Canada] The peak of real estate madness is behind us, but there are tumultuous, complicated times ahead. Here are 10 charts to explain where we are – Globe and Mail
• [Canada] Canada Home Sales Hit ‘Bump in Road’ After Five Months of Growth – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canada Existing-Home Sales Fall in September. Existing-home sales dropped 1.7% in September on a seasonally-adjusted basis – Wall Street Journal
• [Ireland] Homeowners fearful that 36pc jump in house prices will see them hit with huge Local Property Tax bill. One area has seen cost of a house shoot up by 48pc in just four year – Irish Independent
• [Korea] South Korea Unveils New Curbs to Rein in Red-Hot Housing Market – Bloomberg
• [Mexico] Mexico’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Mexico] Situación Inmobiliaria México. Segundo semestre de 2025 – BBVA
• [Netherlands] Migrants overpaying for substandard homes face blame for Netherlands housing crisis. With general elections in two weeks, housing crisis is a big issue, with the far-right Party for Freedom blaming migrants – The Guardian
• [Turkey] Turkey Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [United Arab Emirates] UAE Residential Property Price Report – September 2025 – REIDIN
• [United Kingdom] British homebuilder Bellway raises dividend, launches buyback after upbeat annual profit – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Why has housing delivery in London fallen so dramatically over the past decade? – Savills
• [United Kingdom] Mega-Rich Plotting Return to London, Sotheby’s Housing Boss Says – Bloomberg