The Unassuming Economist

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• April Mortgage Rates Edge Up Following Treasury Sell-Off – NAHB
• Washington State Lawmakers Vote to Limit Rent Increases. Supporters say an annual cap of 10 percent, including inflation, will protect tenants. Critics worry it will reduce housing supply and discourage investors. – New York Times
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in February. FHFA House Prices up 3.9% YoY – Calculated Risk
• Case Shiller Home Price Index Climbs 3.9% in February – Realtor.com
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Mostly Unchanged in March; Up 3.0% Year-over-year. 10 of the 19 cities with largest price declines are in Florida! – Calculated Risk
• Home Price Momentum Slows—and Prices Are Falling in One Florida City – Realtor.com
• US Home-Price Gains Eased in February as Listings Increased – Bloomberg
• AEI Housing Market Indicators, April 2025 – AEI

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• March Home Sales Were the Slowest Since 2009. Some Predict Prices Could Drop Next. – Barron’s
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in March and a Look Ahead to April Sales – Calculated Risk
• Sales of Existing Homes Plunge to Their Slowest March Pace Since 2009, in Warning Sign for Spring Housing Season – Realtor.com
• Housing market inventory with a price cut just hit a decade high. In total, 302,260 U.S. homes for sale on Realtor.com in March 2025 had a price cut. That represents 33.9% of the active U.S. housing inventory. – Realtor.com
• Back to Basics. Plus: California zoning bill survives powerful lawmaker’s economic illiteracy, Montana legislators pass simple, sweeping, supply-side housing reforms, and Washington passes rent control. – Reason
• Home Builders Are Piling on Discounts as They Struggle to Entice Buyers. Demand during the spring home-buying season has been disappointing, and tariffs threaten to raise costs – Wall Street Journal
• Milwaukee Is One of America’s Most Cutthroat Rental Markets. In this Midwestern city, a lack of housing supply has baby boomers, millennials and Gen Z all vying for apartments. – Wall Street Journal

On other developments:    

• The sluggish housing market isn’t entirely bad news – Axios
• Real Estate Brokerages Fight Over How Houses for Sale Should Be Listed. Compass, one of the largest brokerages in the country, has sued a real estate database in Seattle and accused it of “monopolistic” and “anticompetitive” behavior. – New York Times
• Battle of Home Buyers vs. Investors Is Making Toledo a Housing ‘Gold Mine’. Ohio city of 265,000 is one of the increasingly rare affordable housing markets in the U.S. – Wall Street Journal
• The Spring 2025 Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com Housing Market Ranking – Realtor.com 
• Can the Housing Market Withstand a Shrinking Workforce? The Role of Hispanic Labor Under Pressure – Realtor.com 
• In the competitive D.C. housing market, government layoffs bring a growing sense of unease. The nation’s capital is still a seller’s market, but buyers are slowly gaining power. – Yahoo Finance
• 4 of America’s Hottest Markets Boast Low Cost of Living, Low Home Prices, and Climate Resiliency – Realtor.com
• Homeownership Rate Dips to Five-Year Low – NAHB
• Buyer’s or seller’s housing market? Zillow’s analysis for 250 markets. Here’s where home sellers—and homebuyers—have the most power right now, according to Zillow’s most recent analysis. – Fast Company
• Housing on Federal Lands Aims to Ease Affordability Crisis. Housing developers and researchers say the idea of building more homes on federal land could help ease shortages. But various obstacles could hinder the effort. – New York Times
• Roofs, repairs, and rodents: How housing quality has climbed in the Twin Cities. Alongside paying higher housing costs, Twin Cities area households have bigger, better places to call home than they did in in 1997 – Minneapolis Fed
• Trump’s First 100 Days in Office Deliver Little Progress on Solving the Housing Crisis – Realtor.com
• The Housing Market Has New Rules. Realtors Are Evading Them. A landmark settlement was expected to disrupt how real-estate agents are paid. This is how that didn’t happen. – New York Times
• When Did the American Housing Affordability Crisis Begin? – National Review  
• The Best Time to Sell a Home is in May – ATTOM
• Homeownership Falls to Its Lowest Level in 5 Years—and One Age Group Is Hit the Hardest – Realtor.com
• A YIMBY Theory of Power. Pro-housing advocates offer an analysis of class relations that is more sophisticated and has more explanatory power than the one held by many critics of the “abundance agenda.” – The Nation
• Housing’s Share of the Economy Grows Higher to Start the Year – NAHB
• Long-Term Impacts of Residential Racial Desegregation Programs – NBER 
• Trump Doesn’t Need the Fed To Fix Housing. Former Rep. Ron Paul argues that slashing red tape will do more to bring down home prices than pressuring the central bank to cut interest rates. – Reason
• Texas City Makes Bold Move To Fix the Housing Crisis – Realtor.com

On cross-country:

• Which countries most love working from home? And what has it done to their economies? – The Economist

Working papers and conferences:

• Housing and inequality: A critical link in economic disparities – VoxEU
• When Developers Hold Office: Shaping Housing Supply Through Local Politics – CEPR
• Effect of Ownership Composition on Property Prices and Rents: Evidence from Chinese Investment Boom in Us Housing Markets – SSRN
• Wealth and Risk Attitude: Evidence from House Price Increase in Korea – SSRN
• Mortgages for Second Residences and Housing Markets – SSRN

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Why Labor and the Coalition’s housing policies could make the crisis worse – The Guardian
• [Australia] Sydney Boarding Homes Threatened by Luxury Builds as Prices Soar – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Australians could be waiting more than 70 years for affordable housing if prices follow path pushed by major parties. Labor and the Coalition have launched policies to tackle the crisis, but they shied away from the idea of falling house prices – The Guardian
• [Australia] The electorates where house prices rose (and fell) the most – Financial Review

On other countries:  

• [Canada] ‘My home is worth millions – but my own kids are priced out of this city’ – BBC
• [Canada] Homebuilding in Canada stalls despite population explosion – Fraser Institute
• [Canada] Newfoundland and Labrador’s population growth dwarfs homebuilding rate – Fraser Institute
• [Canada] Canada’s Prime Minister Pushes Country to Become the Housing Factory of the World. Mark Carney is banking on factory-built homes to alleviate the country’s housing crisis. But will it work? – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Canada’s Million-Dollar Housing Crisis. Soaring housing costs, with many homes nearing $1 million, have sparked an exodus from cities like Vancouver, and Canadians want their next prime minister to do something about it. – New York Times
• Why Greater Toronto Could Decide Who Wins Canada’s Election. The Conservatives had enjoyed a lead over Liberals in the region largely because of rising housing and food costs. But President Trump’s tariffs have shifted the equation. – New York Times
• [Canada] Canada’s housing market was poised for a comeback. Then trade war jitters set in – The Globe and Mail
• [Canada] Housing Market Monitor – National Bank of Canada
• [Canada] Carney Pushes Canada to Become the Housing Factory of the World – Bloomberg
• [Canada] The housing crisis is made worse by a policy mismatch. Serious social and economic consequences could unfold unless deficient housing policy is addressed and better aligned with immigration policy. – Policy Options
• [Greece] Decoding Housing Affordability in Greece – Alpha Bank 
• [India] Mumbai’s Rush to Rebuild Comes With a Warning. The redevelopment frenzy in India’s commercial hub is dangerously close to peaking – Bloomberg
• [Netherlands] Netherlands a ‘cautionary tale’ for Coalition’s mortgage deduction scheme, expert warns. Cody Hochstenbach says the scheme in his country has driven up home prices and weighs heavily on taxpayers – The Guardian
• [South Africa] Backyard Micro-Flats Aim to Ease South Africa’s Housing Crisis. A startup is fronting the costs for homeowners to become landlords as part of a broader effort to expand affordable housing in poor townships. – Bloomberg
• [Spain] Spain to speed up industrial construction of social housing with EU funds – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Mortgage completions rose by 50% in March as UK buyers rushed to beat stamp duty deadline. Barclays says March was busiest month in property market since 2021, driven by scramble to avoid higher costs – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] London Rents Surge. Why Are Landlords Miserable? The rapid increase should attract investor capital, but new environmental rules have undermined the laws of economics. – Bloomberg

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• US Mortgage Rates Surge by Most in a Year as Tariffs Hit Markets – Bloomberg
• US Mortgage Rates Rise Again, Reach Highest Since Mid-February – Bloomberg
• Zillow turns full-blown housing market bear—just look at its new forecast. Zillow projects that U.S. home prices will fall 1.7% between March 2025 and March 2026. Last month, Zillow economists still thought prices would rise this year. – Fast Company
• Home Price Growth Remains Steady in First Quarter – Fannie Mae
• National Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index—March 2025 – AEI
• Housing market shift: 60 major markets are now seeing falling home prices. Among the 300 largest metro-area housing markets, 60 are seeing falling home prices on a year-over-year basis, according to ResiClub’s monthly analysis. – Fast Company
• Cape Cod Sounds Alarm on Housing Crisis Amid Skyrocketing Home Prices – Realtor.com
• Americans Are Migrating Back to the Heartland States—and It’s Causing Home Prices To Spike in These 5 Cities – Realtor.com
• March 2025 Rental Report: Rents Continue To Fall, but Tariffs on Imported Steel and Aluminum Could Exert Upward Pressure on Prices – Realtor.com  
• Profit Margins on Home Sales Continue to Drop in First Quarter – ATTOM

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• U.S. Homes Are Selling at the Slowest Pace in 6 Years – Redfin
• Continued Gains Projected for Remodeling Amid Economic Uncertainty – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• America’s housing shortage by the numbers – The Hill
• US single-family housing starts tumble to an eight-month low in March – Reuters
• The Home-Building Season Is Starting Off Badly, New Data Shows. Economic uncertainty and rising material costs from tariffs darken the outlook for newly built homes – Wall Street Journal
• B.C. group warns that softwood tariffs could lead to soaring U.S. rebuilding costs – The Globe and Mail
• Single-Family Home Construction Plunges as Builders Grapple With Higher Costs and Weak Demand – Realtor.com
• U.S. Homes Are Selling at the Slowest Pace in 6 Years – Redfin 
• California Home Sales Up 4.9% YoY in March; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets – Calculated Risk
• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March – Calculated Risk
• NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q1 pre-Tariffs. Leading indicator for Rents and Apartment Vacancies turned slightly positive in Q1, before Tariff Announcement – Calculated Risk
• Build, Baby, Build: Unshackling Homeowners and Developers from Local Red Tape – New America
• New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March. Median New Home Price is Down 12% from the Peak due to Change in Mix – Calculated Risk
• New Home Sales Rise in March – NAHB
• New-Home Sales Make a Surprising Jump Led by Affordable Inventory – Realtor.com
• The Sun Belt housing market is so weak the largest U.S. homebuilder pulls back. D.R. Horton is ramping up concessions in regional housing markets—particularly in pockets of Florida and Texas where active inventory has climbed the most. – Fast Company
• See How Your State Ranks on the New Realtor.com Report Card for Homebuilding and Affordability – Realtor.com

On impact of tariffs on housing:

• US labor market stable; tariffs depress single-family homebuilding – Reuters

On other developments:    

• Booming Houston. What’s driving it? – Home Economics
• 9 Free Ways to Increase Arizona Home Ownership. What Arizona can do to help stabilize house prices, which would increase Arizona home ownership, family wealth, and economic growth, all for FREE. – Real Estate Decoded
• One map shows the affordable housing gap for low-income renters across the US – Business Insider
• Housing and Demographics – Calculated Risk
• White House Eyes Overhaul of Federal Housing Aid to the Poor. The Trump administration has considered sharply curtailing vouchers as part of its budget for the 2026 fiscal year. – New York Times
• Trump Administration Aims to Sell Housing Department Headquarters. The building has been added to a list of properties that the administration says it is trying to offload in order to eliminate waste. – New York Times
• Low-Income Renters Can’t Get the Housing Vouchers They Need. A fraction of rent-burdened households receive Section 8 vouchers — and they may not even be able to use them. – New York Times
• As Trump jettisons its staff, HUD puts its D.C. headquarters up for sale – NPR
• How is the climate crisis affecting affordable housing? Housing costs all over the world are skyrocketing, and climate change-driven disasters are only making it worse. Could city planning and risk reduction help? – DW
• Why Florida’s Condo Owners Are So Desperate to Sell. Insurance increases, special assessments and limited financing options have elevated costs beyond what many can bear – Wall Street Journal
• Florida Homeowners Are in Crisis. Lawmakers Want To Offer Tax Relief as a Solution – Realtor.com
• A house divided by housing – Politico
• California Housing Bills Face Crucial Hearing Today. Bills designed to allow more starter homes and apartments near transit face an uncertain future in the state Senate’s housing committee. – Reason
• The Rooftop: Innovative Ideas to Solve the Housing Crisis. A new blog and multimedia series hosted by New America, shaped by its contributors – New America 
• The Future of Fair Housing in America: A Q&A with Chiraag Bains – New America 

On cross-country:

• Why holiday rentals are winning the war for Europe’s city centres. Residents of tourist hotspots have long demanded that Airbnb-style letting platforms be banned. But booking numbers in Europe — and housing costs — are still rising – FT
• Recent surges in house prices have affected many — but not all — countries in the European Union – Our World in Data

Working papers and conferences:

• Macroprudential and monetary policy tightening: more than a double whammy? – BIS
• Selected Macroeconomic and Social Aspects of Housing Affordability – Intereconomics
• Housing Supply and Housing Affordability – NBER
• Does Homeownership Matter? The Long-Term Consequences of Losing a House during the Great Recession – NBER
• Reexamining Lackluster Productivity Growth in Construction – Regional Science and Urban Economics
• Credit supply, housing demand, and rising home prices. A change in veteran home loans can help explain home price dynamics – Minneapolis Fed
• Industrical Organization of Housing Markets, Fall 2025 – NBER

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Could Trump’s tariffs lead to another house price boom in Australia? Sharemarket volatility and fear of recession can scare property investors, but lower borrowing rates may push up home values – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australia’s looming election brings housing crisis into focus – BBC
• [Australia] Election cons will fuel higher house prices and debt – Financial Review
• [Australia] The housing policies of both major parties are bad for Australia’s aspiring homebuyers. The plans would exacerbate the problem they say they are trying to solve – rising property prices – The Guardian
• [Australia] Leaders brush off warnings from economists that duelling housing policies will drive up prices in Australia. Neither Anthony Albanese nor Peter Dutton say they want house prices to fall, as experts warn new promises could worsen affordability crisis – The Guardian
• [Australia] Home ownership is slipping out of reach for many Australians. Will the major parties’ promises make a difference? Neither Labor nor the Coalition’s policies will solve the housing crisis. At least they are competing over who can get the most homes built – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australia does not have enough tradies to fulfill Labor’s housing promise, experts say. Construction industry already faces shortfall of 80,000 workers as government vows to build 250,000 homes a year for four years – The Guardian
• [Australia] Why is it so hard for everyone to have a house in Australia? – The Conversation
• [Australia] Liberals want house prices to grow slower than wages – Financial Review
• [Australia] Not enough houses are being built in Australia, and Labor has promised 1.2m more. Here’s what needs to happen. ABS data shows current rates of construction unlikely to meet government’s five-year Housing Accord target – or estimates of demand – The Guardian
• [Australia] Why working hard no longer buys you a home in Australia. We need to end the federalism disconnect and enable states to strip away their own government-imposed costs on new housing. – Financial Review
• [Australia] Australia’s housing policy looks to fix symptom, not cause – Oxford Economics  
• [Australia] Excuse my cynicism, but after 25 years of the same housing policies, could Australian leaders try something else? First homeowners’ grants have long been the go-to policy by state and federal governments. And yet here we are in 2025 with a worsening housing affordability crisis – The Guardian
• [Australia] How Australia’s Housing Market Became So Out of Reach. Ballooning property prices and rents are causing serious housing affordability problems in Australia. So how bad is it? And how did it get to this point? – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Adelaide becomes fifth Australian capital where median house value exceeds $1m. Across Australia, home prices grew at slowest rate in two years and unit prices fell in March, Domain says – The Guardian
• [Australia] Half of Australian landlords sell their investments after 2 years, adding to renters’ insecurity – The Conversation
• [New Zealand] House prices down, listings up: Why Real Estate Institute is feeling positive – RNZ

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Canadians Are Cashing Out Their American Vacation Homes. Political uncertainty, coupled with a weak Canadian dollar, is driving owners to sell properties they’ve had for decades – Wall Street Journal
• [Canada] Stressed and Sidelined Homebuyers Start to Strain Canada Economy – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Housing starts for March 2025 – CMHC
• [Canada] Canada: Housing prices continue to fall in March – National Bank of Canada
• [India] Q1 home sales dip 19%, less than 1 lakh residential units sold in Jan-March. Against the backdrop of worsening geopolitical concerns that can deeply impact the domestic job market, sales fell in all key residential markets except Bengaluru and Chennai – Business Standard
• [Ireland] House prices now nearly 20% higher than at peak of pre-crash property bubble in 2007. Some 3,245 dwellings were purchased in February, down 14 per cent from January, CSO says – The Irish Times
• [Singapore] Singapore Home Sales Cool as Tariffs Threaten Market Rally – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Barclays joins other lenders to cut mortgage rate below 4%. Brokers warn some lenders might be slow to pass on lower prices due to uncertainty around trade policy – FT
• [United Kingdom] Tariff turbulence: Our first thoughts on what this means for the UK housing market – Savills
• [United Kingdom] The UK’s Housing Affordability Crisis is Easing. It may not feel like it, but houses in the UK are steadily becoming more affordable. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK property asking prices up 1.3% on year, Rightmove says – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] London Property Faces Hit From Trade War, Rightmove Says – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rose by most in over two years in February, official data shows – Reuters

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Revealed: The ZIP Codes Where Home Prices Have Increased the Most Since 2024 – Realtor.com
• Stubbornly High Mortgage Rates Thwart the Crucial Home-Selling Season. Mortgage rates stayed flat while stock-market volatility and recession fears threaten the housing market – Wall Street Journal
• Mortgage Rates Remain Steady—but Home Shoppers Will Have To Navigate a Lot of Volatility – Realtor.com
• How Market Volatility Can Affect Homeowners and House Hunters – Wall Street Journal
• Homeowners Have Been Waiting Years To Sell—but Feel ‘Locked In’ by Mortgage Rates – Realtor.com
• Home prices are dropping in some cities. See what it’s like in your neighborhood. – Washington Post
• The 10 ZIP Codes Where Home Prices Have Fallen the Most Since 2024—Including a Pricey Florida Hot Spot – Realtor.com
• Survey: 81% of Potential Sellers Think They Will Get Their Asking Price or More This Year – Realtor.com
• The Florida housing market is so weak that this giant builder is cutting prices. KB Home CEO Jeffrey Mezger says the start of the housing market’s 2025 spring selling season is ‘more muted’ than usual. – Fast Company
• Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) – Fannie Mae
• The Coachella Effect! Home Prices in Festival Hot Spot Cities Have Nearly Doubled in Under 10 Years – Realtor.com
• Washington lawmakers clash over rent cap proposal – Axios

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Why America Should Sprawl. The word has become an epithet for garish, reckless growth — but to fix the housing crisis, the country needs more of it. – New York Times
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 – Calculated Risk
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March – Calculated Risk
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March – Calculated Risk
• Building Material Prices Continue to Grow at Slower Pace – NAHB
• Housing market inventory is rising just about everywhere—just look at this map. National active housing inventory for sale is up 28.5% year-over-year. It’s even starting to rise in the Midwest and Northeast. – Fast Company
• Where Do Builders and Remodelers Buy Building Products? – NAHB
• Permits Pullback in February 2025 – NAHB
• Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different – Calculated Risk
• Despite Exemptions and Delays, Tariffs are Already Affecting Builders – NAHB
• Build Homes on Federal Land – New York Times
• Understanding the housing supply gap: What every real estate agent needs to know – Realtor.com
• Zillow’s bold move to confront off-market housing inventory. Zillow just banned home listings from appearing on its site if they’re first listed for sale in private networks more than 24 hours before appearing on the MLS. – Fast Company
• Housing Supply Frameworks Act Would Break Down Barriers to Housing Development – National Association of Realtors
• Builder Confidence Levels Indicate Slow Start for Spring Housing Season – NAHB
• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March – Calculated Risk
• Housing Starts Decline Amid Economic Uncertainty – NAHB
• America’s housing shortage by the numbers – The Hill

On impact of tariffs on housing:

• From tariffs to tightness: What’s happening in the US housing market? – JP Morgan
• The Surprising Impact That Trump’s Tariffs Will Have on Luxury Real Estate – Realtor.com
• Trump’s Tariffs on China Now Total 145%—and Beijing’s Retaliation Could Hit U.S. Homebuyers – Realtor.com
• How to Tell What Your Home Will Be Worth in a Trade War. These four metrics can provide clues about how the housing market is reacting to higher tariffs – Wall Street Journal
• Wealthy Buyers Are Backing Out of Multimillion-Dollar Home Deals. President Trump’s trade war and stock market chaos have put the once unshakable high-end home market on ice – Wall Street Journal
• Apartment Developers Who Overbuilt Luck Out With Tariffs. The multifamily industry now can pause most construction ahead of potential tariffs on building materials – Wall Street Journal
• This Surprising State Is Most Reliant on Imports—What Tariffs Could Mean for Its Housing Market – Realtor.com

On other developments:    

• Uncertainty looms after a more stable D.C.-area housing market in 2024. “Last year was a whole different universe.” – Washington Post
• Housing market affordability is so stretched that home turnover hits a 40-year low  . When adjusting for U.S. population size, U.S. existing home sales are hovering around four decade lows. – Fast Company
• A Growing Share of New Yorkers Are Set to Receive — Not Buy — Their Homes. About a quarter of all Manhattan home sales in 2024 involved a trust, a preferred tool for passing on wealth. – Bloomberg
• Just One-Third of 30-Year-Olds Own a Home Today—as Adults Delay Major Life Milestones – Realtor.com
• Housing affordability issues show few signs of easing – The Hill
• Who’s to Blame for America’s Housing Crisis? Readers respond to our March 2025 cover story and more. – The Atlantic
• Immigrants, Housing Wealth, and Local Government Finances. In addition to the $1.7 trillion in directly paid property taxes as property owners, immigrants also generated $513 billion in taxes as renters and another $1.1 trillion through their positive effects on property values in their roles as consumers. – Cato Institute 
• Another reason housing in Texas is cheap
• What we’ve been reading: urbanism, science, tech, aesthetics and more … – The Works in Progress Newsletter
• Average Property Tax Amount on Single-Family Homes Up 2.7 Percent Across U.S. in 2024 – ATTOM
• Democrats alarmed over upheaval at housing regulator, fearing instability. Supporters say Fannie and Freddie provide an anchor for a market suffering under elevated interest rates and a shortage of affordable residences. – Politico