The Unassuming Economist

Working papers and conferences:

• The Geographic and Economic Implications of Working from Home – Philadelphia Fed
• The Risks and Rewards of Homeownership – NBER
• How are Prices Determined in the Airbnb Market? – SSRN
• Spatial Distribution of Housing Liquidity – SSRN
• Monetary Policy Shocks and Local Housing Markets – SSRN

On China:

• China’s property slump deepens—and threatens more than the housing sector – Atlantic Council
• At World’s Busiest Port, China’s Unbalanced Economy Comes Into View. The shipping traffic and factories never stop in China’s port city of Ningbo, but the local housing market has crashed and nearby restaurants sit empty. – New York Times

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [New Zealand] Biggest bank downgrades house price forecast – RNZ

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Economist sees subdued 2026 in the housing market as condos drag – Globe and Mail
• [Croatia] Addressing housing challenges in Croatia: an OECD perspective – Institute of Public Finance
• [Ireland] The Irish Times view on house price growth: slowing, but not fast enough. The challenge for the Coalition in 2026 is to show they have momentum in infrastructure and housing delivery – The Irish Times
• [Korea] South Korea to Fast-Track Housing Supply in Seoul to Cool Prices – Bloomberg
• [Malaysia] Malaysia’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Philippines] Philippines’ Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] What’s A Major Tax Shake-Up Is Changing the Way Londoners Buy Homes. Punishing taxes and rising fees are pushing buyers to abandon flats for houses—and reshaping the city’s housing market – Wall Street Journal
• [United Kingdom] Rent in London’s Poshest Postcodes Falls for the First Time in Four Years – Bloomberg
• [United Arab Emirates] United Arab Emirates’ Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [United Arab Emirates] U.K. Property Market Recovers Post-Budget Jitters But Price Growth Still Slow. House prices rose 1.2% last year but were below the 1.9% increase in 2024, according to a Zoopla report – Wall Street Journal
• [United Kingdom] ‘Absurd’: decent homes standard for England’s private renters will not be enforced until 2035. Campaigners say government is letting landlords ‘drag their feet’ and ‘denying renters the most basic standards’ – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK’s Zoopla says house buyer demand has risen since November budget – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] U.K. Property Market Recovers Post-Budget Jitters But Price Growth Still Slow. House prices rose 1.2% last year but were below the 1.9% increase in 2024, according to a Zoopla report – Wall Street Journal  

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in November
• FHFA House Prices up 1.9% YoY in November – Calculated Risk
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below 2022 Peak. Price-to-rent index is 9.6% below 2022 peak – Calculated Risk
• Home Prices Rose to Record Highs in 2025 as Affordability Challenge Looms – ATTOM
• Back to the Suburbs: Bay Area Edition. Suburban home prices are rising faster than urban ones – Home Economics
• Is your backyard heating up in 2026? Check Zillow’s hottest markets list. – Zillow
• Zillow’s Best Markets for Home Buyers in 2026: Where Buyers Have Leverage and Upside – Zillow
• The Winter 2026 Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com Housing Market Ranking – Realtor.com
• Mortgage Applications Today: Record-Low Mortgage Rates Spark Home Lending and Refinancing Surge – Realtor.com 
• NMHC on Apartments: “Lower rent growth and higher vacancies” in Q4. Leading indicator for Rents and Apartment Vacancies Negative in Q4 – Calculated Risk
• Trump’s mortgage-backed bond purchases not moving needle on housing costs – Reuters
• Homebuying and Selling Activity Show Signs of Life Amid Lower Mortgage Rates – Redfin
• Buying a House Has Become Less Affordable. A 50-Year Mortgage Is Not the Answer. – AEI
• US single-family home prices jump in November, FHFA says – Reuters

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Will Banning Corporate Homebuyers Make Housing More Affordable? The Trump administration has moved to restrict institutional investors’ home purchases and proposed allowing buyers to draw on retirement savings for down payments. We asked Professor Cameron LaPoint, who studies housing finance, whether these policies are likely to make housing more affordable—or to push prices higher. – Yale Insights 
• These Developers Stand to Win in Trump’s Housing-Investor Crackdown. The build-to-rent business looks poised to take off after Trump exempted this industry from his regulations on large investors – Wall Street Journal
• December 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• Pool Permitting Falls Lower In 2025 – NAHB
• 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December – Calculated Risk
• Remodeling Growth Set to Downshift in Late 2026 – Joint Center for Housing Studies 

On other developments:    

• How Remaking the Neighborhood Could Boost Poor Kids’ Futures. A 1990s initiative to replace housing projects with mixed-income developments gave children an economic lift as adults, new research finds – Wall Street Journal
• Population Growth Slows to a Crawl. Less international migration, less domestic migration, fewer births, and more deaths – Home Economics
• What Explains Low Millennial Home Ownership? Lifestyle and affordability – Home Economics
• The Price of Endless Summer. California is experiencing large migration outflows. The high cost of housing is the main driver. – Home Economics
• Is this a Weird Housing Market? It sure feels like one – Home Economics
• The Hidden Risk to the Housing Market – New York Times
• There’s a practical way to lower housing prices. Democrats should seize it. Affordability is a goal, not a policy. – Washington Post 
• Event: Creating high-opportunity neighborhoods: Lessons from HOPE VI on February 2 – Brookings
• December 2025 Luxury Housing Report: Where the Gap Between Median and Luxury is the Widest – Realtor.com
• Here’s How the Housing Market Has Changed Over the Past 10 Years – Realtor.com
• Addressing the US Affordability Crisis – Signal Versus Reality. The Trump administration has announced a range of measures aimed at addressing affordability in the run up to this year’s midterm elections including housing, healthcare and consumer finances. In our view, these initiatives are unlikely to materially alter the near-term inflation outlook – Nomura
• Who Should Shoulder the Tax Burden in a Resort Town? There’s no easy answer as Massachusetts communities contemplate changing taxes for part-time residents. – New York Times
• How Trump Could Actually Fix Housing Market. Washington needs to unlock capital through deregulation. – Wall Street Journal
• Portland’s housing crisis squeezes middle-income buyers – Axios
• Trump Wants to Fix the Broken US Housing Market. Can He Succeed? – Bloomberg
• Something Weird Is Happening in the Housing Market. After the pandemic, many younger Americans were encouraged to buy housing in “starter cities.” But now the homes are losing value, and property taxes are soaring, pitching the housing market into crisis. – Jacobin  

On cross-country:

• How to Solve the Global Housing Crisis: Liberate Supply Not Subsidise Demand – The Times of Israel

Working papers and conferences:

• What About the Close Calls? In the Mortgage Market, the Behavior of One Group of Loan Applicants Is Particularly Enlightening – Philadelphia Fed
• What Is My Home Worth? – Philadelphia Fed
• Property Tax PassThrough to Renters A Quasi-Experimental Approach – Philadelphia Fed
• Real-time house price model shows U.S. housing market firming – Dallas Fed
• SI 2026 Real Estate – NBER
• Building costs aren’t to blame for high home prices. The link between construction costs and real estate prices has weakened in recent decades, finds research from UChicago Booth – University of Chicago
• Pricing Residential Mortgage Credit Risk in the Post-GFC Era – NBER
• Mapping Crowding, Tenure, Rents and Segregation in the Neighborhoods of Major European Cities around 1900 and Today – International Journal of Urban and Regional Research

On China:

• Real Estate Crash Weighs on China’s Economic Growth. Falling apartment prices have erased the savings of millions of Chinese households, but exports lifted the economy to 5 percent growth last year. – New York Times

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Improving productivity growth and housing affordability would support Australia’s high living standards – OECD
• [Australia] OECD calls on Australia to raise GST and increase affordable housing amid budget deficit. Survey by organisation, which is led by former Liberal senator Mathias Cormann, says economy is ‘now normalising’, after post-pandemic struggle – The Guardian

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Canadian Housing Market in Winter Freeze as Prices, Sales Decline – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Out of Reach: Unlocking Canada’s housing affordability crisis. Many Canadian housing markets face a troubling paradox: homes remain unaffordable for buyers even as construction and land costs have receded, leaving many — especially younger Canadians — feeling that homeownership is out of reach. – Senate of Canada
• [Denmark] Denmark should continue to improve public finances, housing affordability and family policies to sustain growth and living standards – OECD
• [Korea]  Seoul Housing Rally Gathers Pace, Deepening BOK’s Policy Dilemma – Bloomberg
• [Nigeria] Lagos Town Demolitions Leave Thousands of Nigerians Homeless – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] What’s next for the UK housing market in 2026? – Lloyds Banking Group
• [United Kingdom] UK lenders cut mortgage rates in race for new year buyers. December fall in base rate and relatively benign Budget triggers swath of cheaper deals – FT
• [United Kingdom] House prices jump across Britain as sentiment rebounds after Budget. January increase reverses sharp contractions in previous months – FT
• [United Kingdom] U.K. House Prices See Record January Jump as Post-Budget Uncertainty Fades. The 2.8% gain represents the largest January increase in the 25-year history of Rightmove’s House Price Index – Wall Street Journal
• [United Kingdom] Inner London house prices fall at fastest rate since global financial crisis. Sharp annual decline in most expensive boroughs underscores impact of Budget uncertainty – FT
• [United Kingdom] London House Building Collapses 84% in a Decade as Sales Plunge – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] London House Prices End Longest Losing Streak Since 2009 – Bloomberg

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Home price forecast for 2026 across 380 housing markets: Zillow versus Moody’s forecast model. The worst of the pain in the housing market might be now and in the next 6 to 9 months. After that, things will begin to feel a little better—but not good. – Fast Company
• When Housing Policy Becomes Monetary Policy – Cato
• Real-time house price model shows U.S. housing market firming – Dallas Fed
• Michelle Tandler on NYC rent control – Marginal Revolution
• December Mortgage Activity Softens Even as Rates Ease – NAHB
• Worst Case Housing Needs for Renters Ticked Down, But Remain High – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Mapped: How Rent Prices Vary Across Major Cities Worldwide – Visual Capitalist
• Around Zero, Noise Looks like Signal. Home prices are rising in some ZIPs and falling in others. This is normal in stagnant markets. – Home Economics  
• House Prices Decline in Local Markets Despite National Growth – NAHB
• Buying More Affordable than Renting in a Majority of Counties, But Home Prices Rising Faster than Rents – ATTOM  

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• America’s new land boom isn’t about housing — or even people. Across the U.S., the AI infrastructure boom is quietly rewiring how land is bought, valued, and governed — often before the public has its say – Quartz
• Commercial Builders Are Losing Their Appetite to Build Anything but Data Centers. Spending on data-center construction is expected to rise by 23% in 2026 – Wall Street Journal
• Stopping Wall Street from competing with main street homebuyers – The White House
• Trump Signs Order Targeting Institutional Housing Investors – Bloomberg
• Trump Outlines Next Steps for Housing Investor Ban. President’s executive order on the issue comes a day before his speech at Davos, where Trump has said he will address housing affordability – Wall Street Journal
• Curbs on Wall Street landlords could stoke house prices, say investors – Reuters
• Trump Is Moving to Bar Wall Street Firms From Buying Single-Family Homes. Here’s What That Would Mean for Affordability – Time
• Trump Says ‘America Will Not Become a Nation of Renters’ as He Touts Restrictions on Investor Homebuyers in Davos Speech – Realtor.com  
• Remodeling Market Sentiment Strengthens in Fourth Quarter of 2025 – NAHB
• Builder Sentiment Loses Ground at Start of 2026 – NAHB
• Building Our Way Out of Our Housing Crisis. Zohran Mamdani should face financial consequences when his ‘warm collectivism’ inevitably results in fewer homes for New Yorkers. – Wall Street Journal
• The Grocery Store at the Center of San Francisco’s Latest Housing Battle. A proposed apartment tower on top of an iconic Safeway highlights tensions between California’s state and local zoning laws. ‘Why does a large parking lot deserve a view of the water?’ – Wall Street Journal
• Lower Rates Combined with Strong Economic Growth Needs Housing Supply Growth to Avoid Higher Home Prices – AEI
• Soft Conditions for Single-Family Built-for-Rent – NAHB
• New Single-Family Home Size Trends: Third Quarter 2025 – NAHB
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December. Altos: Active single-family inventory was up 1.3% week-over-week – Calculated Risk
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2026 – Calculated Risk
• Third Quarter 2025 Multifamily Construction Data – NAHB
• D.R. Horton Posts Lower Profit, Expects Elevated Incentives to Drag Down Second-Quarter Margins. CEO Paul Romanowski says that based on December incentive levels, margins would likely decline in the second quarter – Wall Street Journal
• Single-Family Permits Cooled in the Fall – NAHB
• Private Residential Construction Spending Edges Higher in October on Home Improvements – NAHB
• 40 Million Americans Live Alone – Apollo

On other developments:    

• The Suburbs are Back. Suburban homes have appreciated faster than urban ones since the pandemic – Home Economics
• Homeownership Looks Worse When You Measure it Properly. Millennials and Gen Zs lag far behind prior generations – Home Economics
• Real Estate and Housing Market Outlook – Wharton
• Trump Administration Floats 401(k) Withdrawals for Down Payment on a Home – Realtor.com
• Trump housing plan to allow 401(k) money for down payments, adviser says – Reuters
• Making homes affordable again is easier said than done – Axios
• Housing Market: Limited Impact from Policy – Morgan Stanley
• To Make Homes Affordable Again, Someone Has to Lose Out. Young Americans need home prices to fall. Existing owners don’t want to take a hit. – Wall Street Journal
• The long and winding road to housing legislation – Politico
• How to Fix the Housing Market – A Wealth of Common Sense
• Housing Affordability Is Topic A. Just Ask Rival Mortgage Lenders Rocket and UWM. – Barron’s
• Americans Hit the Brakes on Driving—and It Could Shift the Housing Market in Reverse – Reattor.com 
• The housing squeeze: Affordability remains out of reach – Axios

From a paper by David Sturrock, and Peter Levell:

“We study the impact of the UK house price boom on the intergenerational persistence of homeownership, housing wealth, location and earnings. Using price variation driven by geographic differences in the elasticity of housing supply, we find that increases in local house prices have a negative effect on homeownership and increase the intergenerational persistence of housing wealth. We show that by age 28 to 37 around 15% of parental gross housing wealth differences are passed through to children’s gross housing wealth. This is not explained by parental housing wealth gains increasing childrens’ likelihood of becoming homeowners, but is largely explained by the children of wealthier parents being more likely to move to and own a home in London. Moving to this high house price and high earning part of the country comes alongside an effect of parental housing wealth on occupation choice and a positive effect of parental housing wealth on the likelihood of being a top earner for men. Increased parental housing wealth causes larger wealth transfers to adult children. We interpret these findings with a model in which wealthier parents help their children overcome liquidity constraints to move to high house price parts of the country. Counterfactual simulations show that the UK house price boom doubled the intergenerational persistence of housing wealth and caused living in London to become more concentrated among the children of the wealthy.”