The Unassuming Economist

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Home prices are falling in 36 of the 50 biggest U.S. metros. These 10 are dropping fastest. Austin, Tampa, and Memphis lead the list as sellers across much of the country are forced to reset their expectations. – Fast Company
• The ROAD to Housing: Rental Affordability and Housing Stability – New America
• Housing market shifts could reshape rental operating models for commercial real estate owners. A surge in US renter households by 2035 could create opportunities for property owners who invest early in living-as-a-service offerings across their portfolios – Deloitte
• Mortgage Applications Decline for Sixth Straight Month in August – NAHB
• Homebuyers Shift to Riskier Mortgages as Interest Rates Rise – Realtor.com
• US fixed 30-year mortgage rate climbs to highest since June 2025 – Reuters  

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:     

• Shorter Apartment Construction Time in 2025 – NAHB
• Housing Week Ahead: Hottest Markets, Ultraluxury, and Home Sales Data – Realtor.com
• Single-Family Home Construction Time Declines in 2025 – NAHB
• High Frequency Data: Single Family Inventory Up 4% Year-over-year. Purchase Applications Remain Weak – Calculated Risk
• Early Look at Local Housing Markets in August – Calculated Risk
• The Silver Lining to Empty Subsidized Apartments – Reason

On other developments:    

• The 5 best and 5 worst states for first-time home buyer assistance in 2026. First-time home buyer assistance varies wildly by state in 2026, ranging from six-figure grants to loans that add a second monthly bill – Quartz
• Median First-Time Homebuyer Age at 33 Years in Quarter 2, 2026, Unchanged from Quarter 2, 2025 and Quarter 1, 2026 – AEI
• Lower Credit-Report Costs Could Come at a Higher Price – AEI
• Video: September 8, 2026, Economic and Housing Market Outlook – Realtor.com 
• The real estate industry controls the housing debate – Real Estate Decoded

From Torsten Slok:

“We have updated our 127-page US housing outlook, available here.

There are 10 conclusions:

1. High mortgage rates at 6.7% combined with a median home price of $400,000 are holding down traffic of prospective homebuyers, see the first chart.
2. 75% of US households can only afford a home priced below $300,000, well under the current median sales price, see the second chart.
3. The share of first-time homebuyers is at the lowest level in decades, and the median first-time buyer is now 40 years old, up from 30 in 2008, see the third chart.
4. Nobody is moving. The structural decline in the share of the US population changing address continues, and the share of households planning to move over the next 12 months has fallen to a record low of approximately 7%, see the fourth chart.
5. Household formation has slowed sharply as immigration has declined, removing a key source of underlying housing demand, see the fifth chart.
6. The typical American home is now 42 years old, and we are not building fast enough to replace the aging stock, see the sixth chart.
7. US homes are getting smaller, with the median size of new single-family homes declining over the past decade as builders chase the price points buyers can still reach, see the seventh chart.
8. House price inflation has stalled near 1% overall, but it is turning higher again for the most expensive homes, where buyers are least dependent on mortgage financing, see the eighth chart.
9. Households’ equity in real estate totals $35 trillion, an average of roughly $400,000 per owner-occupied home, see the ninth chart.
10. Delinquency rates on multifamily housing have climbed above their post-GFC peak to the highest level since at least 2004, see the tenth chart.”

From The Economist:

“DONALD TRUMP’S popularity may be plummeting in America and around the world, yet India’s appetite for buildings bearing his name remains undiminished. This month a local developer licensing the Trump name announced the details of the latest such project. Promising “every comfort, convenience and indulgence” and spread across two towers of 65 storeys each, it will be the country’s largest Trump-branded property. But those who are expecting to find this monument to the tastes of India’s new rich in high-rise Mumbai, brand-obsessed Delhi or tech-fuelled Bangalore will be disappointed. The home of the newest Trump towers is, surprisingly, Hyderabad.

The capital of the wealthy southern state of Telangana, Hyderabad is little known outside India. Domestically its reputation rests on its distinct culture (it serves as a meeting point for north and south India), wonderful cuisine (it produces the best biryani known to humanity, no matter what those misguided souls in Lucknow tell you) and thriving tech industry (Google, Microsoft and Amazon all have huge offices there). It is not famous for skyscrapers. Yet it has more of them than any Indian city bar Mumbai, which was forced into vertical growth by its island geography.”

Continue reading here.

On cross-country:

• Sistemas del impuesto predial en América Latina y el Caribe. This second edition of the book presents new data, lessons, and challenges related to property tax systems in Latin America and the Caribbean. – Lincoln Institute

Working papers and conferences:  

• The (Many) Consequences of the Housing Affordability Problem in the EU: A Machine-Learning Empirical Analysis – IMF
• The Mortgage Borrower Who Can’t Fail and the One Who Can’t Win – St Louis Fed

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Clearance rates hit six-year low as more than half of Australian homes up for auction fail to sell. Preliminary data show 47.7% of homes sold at auction in the week ending 21 June, the lowest rate has been since April 2020 – The Guardian
• [Australia] Home builds are stalling in Sydney’s west as costs outstrip values. Developers are moving to affluent areas where they can make a profit on luxury apartments. If supply doesn’t pick up, essential workers may leave. – Financial Review
• [Australia] Why falling house prices won’t be an economic disaster – The Sydney Morning Herald
• [Australia] Australia’s tax overhaul chills nation’s long love affair with property – Reuters

On other countries:  

• [Ireland] The Irish Times view on house prices: some important signals. Shortage of supply, particularly in the second-hand market, will continue to make it a sellers’ market – The Irish Times
• [Portugal] Portugal’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [Switzerland] Switzerland Residential Property Market Analysis 2026 – Global Property Guide
• [United Arab Emirates] United Arab Emirates’ Residential Property Market Analysis 2026– Global Property Guide
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai property sales have fallen ‘off a cliff’ since start of Middle East war. Sellers of luxury villas have wiped tens of millions of pounds off asking prices, with sales down 19% in May from the previous month – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] The rise of the remorseful homebuyer. Those who got on the property ladder in the past five years lament high mortgage bills, leasehold troubles, location doubts and a difficult sales market – FT

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Rent collections are down in New York — and no one’s sure why. The issue has exposed thorny questions for the city’s affordable housing sector. – Politico
• Landlords Win in Closely Watched Massachusetts Rent-Control Fight. The state is at the forefront of a national debate over how to manage skyrocketing housing costs – Wall Street Journal

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:     

• Structural Demand Outpacing Supply: Jobs-to-Permits Ratios Highlight Housing Gap – NAHB
• Inventory will Tell the Tale – Calculated Risk
• New Home Sales Decrease to 580,000 Annual Rate in May. Median New Home Price is Down 8% from the Peak due to Change in Mix – Calculated Risk
• Affordability Concerns Push New Home Sales Lower in May – NAHB
• U.S. Housing: ROAD to Housing Act – Incremental Supply Push – TD
• US new single-family home sales post second straight monthly decline – Reuters

On other developments:    

• Trump cancels signing of landmark bipartisan bill aimed at lowering housing costs – BBC
• Trump cancels signing of major housing bill. The president said he wouldn’t sign the bipartisan legislation until the SAVE America Act was passed. – Politico
• Trump Says He Won’t Sign Housing Bill Until Congress Passes the SAVE Act. Here’s How It Can Become Law Anyway – Time
• Trump cancels housing affordability bill signing until SAVE Act is passed – Axios
• See How Owning a Home Is Getting More Expensive in Every Way. The long list of spiraling costs includes property taxes, insurance, maintenance and home improvements – Wall Street Journal
• How to Solve the Housing Crisis? Everyone Has an Idea. High interest rates and a chronic shortage of inventory have pushed the U.S. housing market to a breaking point. In this podcast series, we examine the strategies emerging to solve the country’s housing shortfall. – Wall Street Journal
• Grading the States: Affordability & Homebuilding Report Cards—2026 Update – Realtor.com
• Senate passes housing bill to boost affordability, restrain investors. The bipartisan measure, the first major housing legislation since the financial crisis, would bar institutional investors from buying more than 350 single-family homes. – Washington Post
• Harvard Study Reveals the Real Reason the Housing Crisis Isn’t Getting Better – Realtor.com
• US consumers favor homebuying over renting for first time since 2023, BofA study shows – Reuters
• A Solution to A.I.’s Growing Power Demand: Homes. Tesla, Sunrun and Renew Home plan to tap solar panels, batteries, thermostats and other devices installed in millions of homes to meet the energy demands of artificial intelligence. – New York Times
• Buying a home has gotten harder for young adults in most U.S. metro areas – Pew Research Center
• Tornado Alley Is Shifting East. These Housing Markets Are Unprepared and Face the Biggest Risks. – Realtor.com
• The Cost of Mamdani’s Rent Freeze: Experts Warn Mayor’s High-Stakes Vote Could Trigger a NYC Housing Crisis – Realtor.com 
• Declining Immigration Undermines Urban and Rural Population Growth – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies