The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• The rich world’s housing crunch is far from over. Markets can be split into three camps: early adjusters, bullet-dodgers and slow movers – The Economist
• EU Q4 2022: rents rise, house prices fall – Eurostat
• EU housing market boom ends with first quarterly price fall since 2015. Prices fall in 15 of the bloc’s 27 member states as rising borrowing costs and tighter lending standards hit demand – FT
• The Global Housing Affordability Crisis: Policy Options and Strategies – MIT
• Rent or Buy? Inflation Experiences and Homeownership Within and Across Countries – Journal of Finance

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• US mortgage refinancings hit 6-month high on rates drop, MBA says – Reuters
• US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Eases to Six-Week Low of 6.45%. MBA data show decline helped boost home-purchase applications. Refinancing gauge rose last week to highest since September – Bloomberg
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Declines for 8th Consecutive Month in February. Boise leads Cities with 13.1% declined from Peak, Seasonally Adjusted – Calculated Risk
• Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Increased Slightly in February; Prices Up 1.9% YoY. Year-over-year “Price growth is expected to cross over into negative territory by April” – Calculated Risk
• US Home Price Insights – April 2023 – CoreLogic
• Mortgage Rate Update – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

• US pending home sales rise for third straight month; loan demand increases – Reuters
• March 2023 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• Moody’s: Multifamily Demand “Softened notably over the past few quarters”. Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q1 – Calculated Risk
• Update: Comparing the Current Housing Cycle to the 1980 Period – Calculated Risk
• U.S. Has 3rd LOWEST Percentage Of Households That Own Homes Free and Clear, Without Mortgages – Real Estate Decoded
• Housing Is Turning Out to Be a Lousy Shelter for Investors. Apartments have been the second-worst performing type of real estate in the U.S. after offices over the past year – Wall Street Journal
• Fannie Mae Expands Equitable Housing Finance Plan – Fannie Mae

On China:

• China’s Housing Market Has Plenty of Space but Not Enough Buyers. The country is dealing with its worst oversupply of unsold apartments in years – Wall Street Journal

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Australian House Prices Snap Declines as Sydney Market Surges. Sydney prices rose 1.4% in March, after 0.3% gain in February. Supply shortfall, surge in immigration behind price rebound – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong home prices rise for second straight month in Feb – Reuters
• [New Zealand] Missed Mortgage Payments Swell in Housing Bellwether New Zealand. Proportion of mortgages in arrears rises to three-year high. ANZ Bank monitoring customers for signs of financial pressure – Bloomberg
• [Spain] Why Spain’s housing market is set to cool this year – ING
• [United Kingdom] UK mortgage approvals edge up but are down on last year’s levels. February’s figure of 43,500 is more than a third lower than a year earlier as interest rate rises bite – FT
• [United Kingdom] Falling House Prices Are No Cause for Panic. Think of it as a healthy, much-needed correction. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices post steepest fall since 2009. Annual decline of 3.1% in March is larger than drop forecast by economists – FT
• [United Kingdom] More homes come on to the UK market as pressures ease. Mortgage market stability boosts buyer confidence in spite of falling house prices – FT

On cross-country:

• European Housing Markets at a Turning Point – Risks, Household and Bank Vulnerabilities, and Policy Options – IMF
• Laura Valderrama: European Housing Markets at a Turning Point – IMF
• Calibrating Macroprudential Policies in Europe Amid Rising Housing Market Vulnerability – IMF
• Why the global housing market has further to slide – Goldman Sachs

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• A Tale of Two Housing Markets: Prices Fall in the West While the East Booms. In an unusual pattern, the 12 major housing markets west of Texas, plus Austin, saw home prices fall in January, while the opposite happened in the rest of the country – Wall Street Journal
• Home Prices Fell in January for Seventh Straight Month. Case-Shiller index declines 0.2% as rise in mortgage rates continues to slow housing market – Wall Street Journal
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index “Declining Trend Continued” to 3.8% year-over-year increase in January. “U.S. house prices rose in January, up 0.2 percent from December, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (HPI®)” – Calculated Risk
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 4.6% Below Peak. Price-to-rent index is 7.9% below recent peak – Calculated Risk
• Housing Markets In West Coast Hubs And Zoom Towns Cooling Fastest – Redfin
• Year-over-year Rent Growth Continues to Decelerate. “2023 could … see property owners competing for renters.” – Calculated Risk
• Cross-Country Movers Largely Undeterred By High Mortgage Rates – Redfin
• Is the U.S. Tipping Into a Recession? The Answer Will Determine the Direction of the Housing Market – Realtor.com 

On the US—other developments:    

• House Prices Respond Promptly to Monetary Policy Surprises – San Francisco Fed
• More Good News for Homebuilders – Calculated Risk
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February. Year-over-Year: Sales Down Sharply, Inventory Increased, New Listings Down – Calculated Risk
• The US homeownership gender gap is getting wider again. Homeownership among America’s single women fell 4.1 percentage points in 2022, cutting progress by half – Quartz
• U.S. real estate brokerages must face home sellers’ class action over commissions – Reuters

On China:

• The PBoC Props Up China’s Housing Market. The PBoC has fine-tuned its mortgage rates policy to stabilize housing prices, but not without unintended consequences. – Council on Foreign Relations

On other countries:  

• [Korea] Unusual $828 Billion Loan Market Magnifies Housing Risk in Korea. Jeonse loans for renting homes give landlords leveraged funds. Switching from the loans may fuel housing slump and defaults – Bloomberg
• [Sweden] What Broke Sweden? Real Estate Bust Exposes Big Divide. At the heart of the country’s economic and social crisis is a broken housing market, which has amplified social divisions – Bloomberg
• [Sweden] Most Swedish mortgage borrowers have good buffers despite rising rates, FSA report says – Reuters

On cross-country:

• The Anglosphere needs to learn to love apartment living. Housebuilding rates in English-speaking states have fallen behind the rest of the developed world – FT
• Credit Suisse Brings US Bank Panic Home for European Real Estate. Investors worry about contagion at annual Cannes conference. Concern over rates and further turmoil chills property lending – Bloomberg
• Where High Interest Rates Have Sent Home Prices Sliding. In Sweden, the central bank’s fight against inflation is crimping economic growth and has contributed to a 15 percent drop in home prices. – New York Times
• 2023 Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey – Demographia

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• February Housing Starts: Housing Starts Increase More Than Expected As Builder Confidence Edged Higher. The increase in builder confidence and housing starts are signs housing demand is thawing from last year’s deep freeze. – Zillow
• U.S. single-family housing starts, building permits rebound in February – Reuters
• NAHB 2023 “Priced Out” Estimates – State and Local Estimates – NAHB
• House Prices: Rust or Bust? It is possible the Median House Price will be Down YoY in February – Calculated Risk
• Home Prices Inched Up in February, as Some Home Shoppers Braved the Gauntlet of Low Inventory and High Mortgage Rates (February 2023 Market Report) – Zillow

On the US—other developments:    

• How the Housing Market Could Be Affected by Bank Failures – Barron’s
• US mortgage market suffers fallout from bank failures. Volatility in bonds and stocks has left lenders on sidelines of $11tn home loans-backed securities market – FT
• Black-White Homeownership Gap Narrows During Pandemic – Zillow
• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February. 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February – Calculated Risk
• California Wildfires, Property Damage, and Mortgage Repayment – Philadelphia Fed
• Households Priced Out by Higher Interest Rates – NAHB
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.58 million SAAR in February; Median Prices Declined YoY. Median Prices Down 12.3% from Peak in June 2022 – Calculated Risk
• Existing Home Sales Surged in February – NAHB
• New Home Sales at 640,000 Annual Rate in February – Calculated Risk

On China:

• China Real Estate Showing Signs of Recovery After Slump. Home sales, prices snapped losing streak of more than a year. Investment continued to fall but at a much slower pace – Bloomberg
• Long-run mechanism for house price regulation in China: Real estate tax, monetary policy or macro-prudential policy? – IDEAS
• Measuring real estate policy uncertainty in China – China Economic Quarterly International

On other countries:  

• [Mexico] Mexico’s housing market improving gradually – Global Property Guide
• [Netherlands] Netherlands’ house prices are now falling rapidly – Global Property Guide
• [Turkey] Turks Are Latest to Rebel Over Foreigners Buying Homes, Want Ban – Bloomberg 
• [United Kingdom] UK Property Sellers Lift Asking Prices Despite Worry About Slump. Rightmove survey indicates strength in the UK housing market. Some indicators show housing market is headed for a decline – Bloomberg

From the IMF’s latest report on Sweden:

“The real estate market is experiencing substantial weakening. Mortgage and CRE borrowing grew strongly during the pandemic. Like in other advanced countries, house prices were fueled by the easing of monetary policy and macroprudential regulation, fiscal support, and a change in dwelling preferences towards larger units. Both residential real estate (RRE) prices and total household debt in relation to income peaked in Q4 2021. RRE prices started to decline in the second half of 2022, registering a 16 percent decline by end-year from their March peak. Shares of CRE firms listed in Stockholm have lost more than 40 percent of their value in 2022, and more companies face the risk of downgrades spurred by their deteriorating debt profiles as they need to rollover maturing bonds at higher interest rates

(…)

Limited reforms are taking place to address housing market distortions. Recent actions focused mainly on the supply side of the market through providing investment subsidies for rental and student housing, shortening planning processes, and simplifying permits application. These reforms should be supplemented with lowering taxes on deferred capital gains, a gradual removal of interest rate deductibility, and increasing the extremely low property taxes (Annex VII; Box 4). In lieu of the tax breaks, social protection could be provided in a more efficient way, including through expanding the housing allowance. Easing rental controls and simplifying building codes is also vital to bringing more dynamism to the market.”

Also see a special chapter on “Sweden’s Corporate Vulnerabilities: A Focus on Commercial Real Estate“, and Sweden’s Financial System Stability Assessment report.

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• U.S. home prices to fall 4.5% in 2023 despite higher rates: Reuters poll – Reuters
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below Peak. Price-to-rent index is 7.1% below recent peak – Calculated Risk
• Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Declined in January, “on pace to fall below 0% by March/April”. Home Prices Off 5.5% from Peak NSA, Prices up 3.4% Y – Calculated Risk
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February. Closed Sales: 18th consecutive month with a YoY decline – Calculated Risk
• Sorry, Fed, Most US Mortgage Rates Were Locked In During Pandemic Lows – Bloomberg
• Mortgage Activity Increases Despite Mortgage Rate Volatility – NAHB
• House Prices and Rents in the 21st Century – Boston Fed
• Boston Advances Rent-Control Measure as Costs Climb. State must sign off on mayor’s plan to combat surging housing costs – Wall Street Journal

On the US—other developments:    

• In Most US Cities, Homes Still Sell Faster Than Before the Pandemic – Bloomberg
• Black-White Homeownership Gap Widened During Pandemic – Wall Street Journal
• Everything you think you know about homelessness is wrong – Noahpinion
• Yes, There’s a Housing Crisis. No, You Can’t Build Here. A modest redevelopment proposal meets Nimby resistance in my ‘quirky’ suburban Virginia neighborhood. – Wall Street Journal
• Foreign Buyers, Who Nearly Disappeared During Covid, Finally Return to the U.S. Housing Market. Real-estate agents say they’ve seen an acceleration in purchases by overseas buyers amid looser Covid restrictions and political-economic shifts abroad – Wall Street Journal
• Americans Need to Be Richer Than Ever to Buy Their First Home. The pandemic boom has given way to higher mortgage rates and tight inventory, further squeezing entry-level house hunters. – Bloomberg 
• Housing Market Momentum Stalls as Critical Spring Season Approaches. Rising interest rates squeeze affordability, drive mortgage applications to lowest levels in decades – Bloomberg
• Housing Market Momentum Stalls as Critical Spring Season Approaches. Rising interest rates squeeze affordability, drive mortgage applications to lowest levels in decades – Wall Street Journal
• Is Spring the Make-or-Break Moment for 2023’s Housing Market? A Brutally Honest Look Ahead for Buyers, Sellers – Realtor.com
• Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I. The Economic Fireworks have been in Housing! – Calculated Risk
• Single-Family Market Share Continues to Shift from Large Population Centers – NAHB 
• Housing Sentiment Returns to Near-Survey Low Amid Affordability Constraints and Job Security Concerns. Both Homebuyers and Home-Sellers Express Caution About Current Market Conditions – Fannie Mae
• Cost of Constructing a Home in 2022 – NAHB
• Housing Advocates Urge Congress to Enact Tax Policies for New Homebuyers – Reuters  

On China:

• China’s Property Recovery Is Held Back by Hesitant Buyers. Second-hand home viewings have jumped 86% in big cities. Weakening expectations over housing prices remains overhang – Bloomberg
• China to guard against risks among property developers – Premier Li – Reuters
• China to Target ‘Unregulated’ Expansion in Property Market. Premier Li calls for risk prevention in major developers. China sets modest growth target as economic headwinds persist – Bloomberg
• Property Shares Fall After China Targets ‘Unregulated’ Expansion. Premier Li calls for risk prevention in major developers. China sets modest growth target as economic headwinds persist – Bloomberg
• Land Supply and House Prices in China – Applied Economics Letters

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Is the auction market causing a false dawn for property prices? – The Sydney Morning Herald
• [India] India housing market to remain resilient despite higher interest rates: Reuters poll – Reuters
• [Singapore] Will Singapore’s housing supply rise amid rising interest rates, recession fears and tightening wallets? Supply has dropped since 2018, and rental market is expected to remain tight despite about 30,000 potential completions forecast for the next two years. Singapore developers are still grappling with high costs, shortage of labour thanks to the upheavals in supply chains caused by pandemic, analysts note – South China Morning Post
• [Sweden] Sweden Housing Market Takes a Break From Worst Rout in Years. Apartment prices rise for the first time since March 2022. Sales volumes continue to be subdued, Maklarstatistik says – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Falling house prices may seem like a good thing – but it’s renters who are paying the price. With first-time buyers unable to get a mortgage and landlords hiking up rents, it’s a vicious cycle – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices bounce unexpectedly in February: Halifax – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Are UK House Prices Rebounding Already? The latest Halifax data is much more upbeat than we’ve grown used to in recent months. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices slide further but market pessimism eases: RICS – Reuters