The Unassuming Economist

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• U.S. Home Price Growth Cools to Near-Two-Year Low. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 2.7% in the 12 months to April – Wall Street Journal
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.7% year-over-year in April –Calculated Risk
• Housing market at risk of “sustained downturn” as price growth cools – Axios
• Mapping Home Price Changes – New York Fed
• Housing market map: Zillow just released its updated home price forecast for 400-plus housing markets. Zillow projects that U.S. home prices will fall 0.7% from May 2025 to May 2026. – Fast Company
• These 96 housing markets are seeing falling home prices. Among the 300 largest metro-area housing markets, these 96 markets are seeing falling home prices on a year-over-year basis. – Fast Company
• What Trump’s Bomb Strike on Iran Means for Mortgage Rates in the US – Realtor.com

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Housing market weakness triggers Lennar to offer biggest incentives since 2009. There is a consensus among major publicly traded homebuilders that the spring 2025 housing market was softer than expected. – Fast Company
• Single-family Construction Loan Volume Grows – NAHB
• Home Prices Stay Steady as Buyers Take Their Time – Realtor.com
• Buyer’s or seller’s housing market? Zillow’s new rating for 250 major markets. Where home sellers—and home buyers—have the most power right now, according to Zillow’s updated analysis released in June. – Fast Company
• Real USA Home Prices Flat for 1 Year & 19% Above 2006 Peak – Real Estate Decoded
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.03 million SAAR in May; Down 0.7% YoY. Median House Prices Increased 1.3% Year-over-Year – Calculated Risk
• Existing Home Sales Edge Higher in May – NAHB
• New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May. Median New Home Price is Down 7% from the Peak due to Change in Mix – Calculated Risk
• California Home Sales “Sputter” in May; 4th Look at Local Markets. California Active Inventory Highest Reached 67-Month High – Calculated Risk
• Home Sales Stay Sluggish in May as Mortgage Rates and Uncertainty Weigh on Market – Realtor.com
• Home Sales Rose in May, but Housing Market Is Still Sluggish. Existing-home sales edge up 0.8%, ending two-month streak of declines – Wall Street Journal
• U.S. New Home Sales Slump as High Mortgage Rates Persist. Sales of new single-family homes fell 13.7% to 623,000 in May – Wall Street Journal
• How Small Apartments in Big Buildings Became the US Norm. To what extent was the construction boom a product of the sometimes-perverse incentives and disincentives facing developers? – Bloomberg
• Homeownership: Not Enough Supply for Middle-Income Buyers. For teachers, nurses and other skilled workers, few options. – New York Times
• California Democrats wage internal war over Gavin Newsom’s late push to build more housing. Governor is drawing heavy resistance to his housing development proposal. – Politico

On other developments:    

• Interactive Tool Charts Pandemic Homebuying Trends – San Francisco Fed
• The State of the Nation’s Housing 2025 – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Unease in the Housing Market Amid a Worsening Affordability Crisis – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Zohran Mamdani’s policies will (mostly) not bring abundance to NYC. Progressive ideas still try to defy economic realities. – Noahpinion
• Is U.S. Lumber Self-Reliance Possible? – NAHB
• Institutional Investors Aren’t the Villains of America’s Housing Market – National Review
• More Homeowners Find Themselves Underwater. Some who bought around the market peak in pandemic boomtowns owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth – Wall Street Journal
• Buyers in the Priciest Housing Markets Need 80% Down To Afford Monthly Costs – Realtor.com
• Thoughts on the Big, Fascinating, Exciting Mamdani Upset! The affordability crisis is real. Mamdani’s offering solutions where others, including the president, not only have nothing, but are making it worse. – Jared Bernstein 
• New York’s Housing Crisis Is So Bad That a Socialist Is Poised to Become Mayor. Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old who campaigned on rent freezes, emerged victorious in the city’s Democratic primary – Wall Street Journal
• Will Zohran Mamdani’s Housing Plan Actually Work in New York City? – Realtor.com
• On Housing, All New York Politicians Are Socialists. Allegedly sane, centrist opponents of New York City’s socialist mayoral candidate are all too happy to regulate rental housing into the ground. – Reason
• New Yorkers Vote to Make Their Housing Shortage Worse. Austin, Texas, and other red-state cities have set an example for how to make housing markets work – New York Times
• A New Rail Line May Come to New York. Will a Housing Boom Follow? The Interborough Express, a rail line connecting Brooklyn and Queens, could spur the building of tens of thousands of homes. Obstacles await. – New York Times
• Elevated Rates, Challenging Affordability Conditions Put a Damper on New Home Sales – NAHB
• Housing market at risk of “sustained downturn” as price growth cools – Axios
• Confronting the affordable-housing crisis – McKinsey
• Why Do Republicans Support the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit? Publicly funded homes in some cities are costing taxpayers more than $1 million per unit, but Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” would increase funding for these inefficient projects. – Reason
• San Francisco’s Luxury Housing Market Is Booming Again Thanks to AI Wealth. A new report from Sotheby’s International Realty says the top end of the market has undergone a renaissance. – Bloomberg
• Affordability Crisis Worsens as Home Prices Hit ‘Shocking’ New High—5 Times What the Typical Household Earns – Realtor.com
• Where Are the Least Competitive Housing Markets? – Zillow
• Housing Department to Move Headquarters, Booting National Science Foundation. The plan to depart Washington and take over the science agency building in Virginia raised questions about where N.S.F. employees would go. – New York Times

Working papers and conferences:

• 5^th International Workshop on Rent Control – Universitat Rovira i Virgili
• Housing, Climate Risk, and Insurance – NBER
• Response to “Supply Constraints do not Explain House Price and Quantity Growth Across U.S. Cities” by Louie, Mondragon, and Wieland – SSRN
• Influence of Demography on Housing Prices in Taiwan – SSRN
• House Prices, Debt Burdens, and the Heterogeneous Effects of Mortgage Rate Shocks – SSRN
• Comparing the Effectiveness of Rental Subsidies and Homeownership Subsidies in Addressing Housing Affordability in New Zealand: Evidence from Auckland – SSRN
• Discrimination Against Housing Vouchers: Evidence from Online Rental Listings – SSRN    

On China:

• China’s home prices dip in May, extending two-year slump – Reuters
• As China’s housing slump deepens, consumers open their wallets to spend. China sees a declining housing market amid a jump in consumer spending. Here’s what it means for the world’s second-largest economy – Quartz
• China’s property market recovery stalls as falling prices hit sentiment. Data sets back hopes that struggling market could stabilise this year – FT
• China housing demand to stay at 75 below peak, Goldman says – Bloomberg

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Labor has promised 1.2m new homes in its second term. Is it possible? Experts weigh in on what Australia needs to change to get more houses, more quickly – from fixing a 2,000-page code, to backing modular builds – The Guardian
• [Australia] Building our way out of social housing unaffordability may no longer be possible. Australia is still spending nowhere near enough to decisively reverse decades of neglect. Winding down tax breaks might be the answer – The Guardian
• [Australia] Building our way out of social housing unaffordability may no longer be possible. Australia is still spending nowhere near enough to decisively reverse decades of neglect. Winding down tax breaks might be the answer – The Guardian
• [Australia] How to tackle Australia’s housing crisis – Grattan Institute
• [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices edge lower in May as market remains soft – Reuters

On other countries:  

• [Canada] P.E.I. population growth outpacing homebuilding rate – Fraser Institute
• [Canada] Canada Housing Market: Hosing resale activity picked up in May 2025…Are we witnessing easing effects from trade-related uncertainty on housing demand? – Scotiabank
• [Canada] Canada’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Egypt] Egypt Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Germany] Germany’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Netherlands] The Netherlands’ Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Philippines] Philippines’ Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Singapore] Singapore’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Switzerland] Switzerland Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] Labor has promised 1.2m new homes in its second term. Is it possible? Experts weigh in on what Australia needs to change to get more houses, more quickly – from fixing a 2,000-page code, to backing modular builds – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Britain’s Housing Splurge Is Long Overdue. The Labour government’s plan to boost spending on affordable homes has the potential to pay for itself in wider economic benefits. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall at fastest pace in four years after stamp duty rise. Annual house price growth halves to 3.5% in April as temporary tax relief ends – FT
• [United Kingdom] Non-doms’ retreat hits London’s prime housing market. Cooling of interest from wealthy international buyers, say estate agents ends – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK Home Prices See Biggest Drop Since 2021 as Tax Hike Kicks In – Bloomberg

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Using Income Changes to Forecast Home Prices by County – Home Economics
• Expert Panel Expects Moderating Home Price Growth through 2026 – Fannie Mae
• Mortgage Rates Ease to 6.84% – Realtor.com
• Buyer-Friendly Housing Market Gets a Boost With a Dip in Mortgage Rates – Realtor.com
• Housing Isn’t Expensive for Everyone. Do you have a ZIRP-era mortgage or not? – Bloomberg
• Congress Considers a Crackdown on Those Spammy Calls From Mortgage Lenders. Legislation would curb ‘trigger leads,’ whereby credit bureaus sell your mortgage application information to competing lenders – Wall Street Journal 
• Trump has a plan to remake the housing-finance system. It’s baffling to many lawmakers and experts. The question of what to do with Fannie and Freddie, the two dominant mortgage financiers, has bedeviled policymakers for decades. – Politico

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• More Home Listings Are Paving the Way to a Buyer-Friendly Market – Realtor.com
• 32 housing markets where tight inventory still favors sellers. Among the nation’s 200 largest metro area housing markets, 32 markets at the end of May 2025 still had at least 50% less active inventory than in May 2019. – Fast Company
• New Real-Estate Math: Half a Million More Sellers Than Buyers. New listings haven’t been enough to jolt the housing market out of its slumber – Wall Street Journal
• Permit Activity Weakens in April 2025 – NAHB
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May – Calculated Risk
• Builder Sentiment at Third Lowest Reading Since 2012 – NAHB
• Housing Market Index and Single Family Starts – Calculated Risk
• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.256 million Annual Rate in May – Calculated Risk
• Sharp Drop in Multifamily Production Brings Overall Housing Starts Down – NAHB
• US single-family housing starts rise in May; permits slump – Reuters
• US housing construction falls to 5-year low as tariffs weigh on sector. Signs of property market weakness come hours ahead of Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates – FT
• Single-Family Home Construction Stays Muted in May as Builders Grapple With Rates and Tariffs – Realtor.com
• There Are Nearly 15 Million Vacant Homes in America—Here’s Where Most of Them Are – Realtor.com
•  Buyer-Friendly Housing Market Grows as Home Prices Hold Steady – Realtor.com
• Housing’s Woes Are a Leading Indicator – Wall Street Journal
• Housing Starts Weaken Amid Gloomy Builder Sentiment – Wall Street Journal
• The housing market slump is getting worse – Axios

On other developments:    

• Household Real Estate Asset Value Falls to Start the Year – NAHB
• Here’s how Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’ would impact housing – CNN
• Why did those apartments for the poor cost D.C. more than $1 million each? – Washington Post
• The affordability gap: Is home ownership still within reach in today’s economy? – JP Morgan Chase
• Home Flipping Profits Drop in First Quarter – ATTOM
• The 10 states where homeownership will most be out of reach in 5 years. These 10 states are projected to have the largest gaps between income and homeowners in five years – Quartz
• Can You Guess the Hidden Costs of Homeownership? – New York Times

On cross-country:

• Luxury property’s final frontier. There is a boom in ultra-prime apartments in Africa’s megacities – The Economist

Working papers and conferences:

• Housing Affordability, Supply, and Spatial Misallocation – University of Washington

On China:

• China Taps $1.5 Trillion Fund to Boost Home Market Support – Bloomberg

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Australia’s rental crisis at home also cost its reputation abroad. Migrants drawn by Australia’s inclusive image encounter discriminatory rental practices that damage the nation’s soft power. – Lowy Institute
• [Australia] Average Australian home passes A$1m amid housing crisis – BBC

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Early signs of renewed housing market confidence emerge in Canada – RBC
• [India] India housing outlook steady but cracks from demand slowdown start to widen – Reuters poll – Reuters
• [Ireland] Ireland modifies rent controls as it seeks to revive homebuilding – Reuters
• [South Africa] Do too many people want a slice of Cape Town? South Africa’s second city is at a crossroads: those flocking to live there are powering the economy, but also driving up house prices and exacerbating a strained market and local infrastructure. For a city surrounded by ocean and mountains, the expansionist path forwards is a complex one – FT
• [United Kingdom] Residential UK house prices fall by more than expected amid economic uncertainty. Average property price drops 0.4% month on month in May to £296,648, Halifax says – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices slid in May following stamp duty tax hike, Halifax says – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall by more than expected amid economic uncertainty. Average property price drops 0.4% month on month in May to £296,648, Halifax says – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Rachel Reeves plans ‘housing bank’ to deliver cheaper financing for builders. UK chancellor also considers funding settlement of up to £25bn for social housing in Wednesday’s spending review – FT
• [United Kingdom] Labour’s housing dreams exceed UK developers’ reality. Industry still faces slow build despite hopes for action in government’s spending review – FT
• [United Kingdom] England’s social housing funds ‘less generous’ than £39bn settlement suggests. Analysis indicates spending of about £3bn a year until 2029, similar to AHP’s money for current financial year – FT

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: First Quarter 2025 – NAHB
• Price Cuts on Home Listings Surge to 9-Year High—and These 3 Cities Lead the Trend – Realtor.com
• Home Prices Pick Up Steam in the Hottest Housing Markets – Realtor.com
• Homebuyers face less housing market competition from investors right now. Two-thirds of single-family investors are struggling to find properties for sale that generate positive cash flow. – Fast Company 
• The Trump administration is working on a plan for time limits on rental aid – NPR
• Should federal rental aid come with a time limit? Here’s how it works in one place – NPR
• Fannie and Freddy back again – The Grumpy Economist
• It’s a Buyer-Friendly Housing Market as Mortgage Rates Dip – Realtor.com
• Trump Unlikely To Privatize Fannie and Freddie This Year, Says Mortgage Bankers Association CEO – Realtor.com
• The “Home ATM” Mostly Closed in Q1. Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Negative in Q1 – Calculated Risk

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• More Evidence of How Housing Regulation Is Bad for Housing – AEI
• Gentrification as a housing problem. The root cause is inflexible supply – The Works in Progress Newsletter
• Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending May 31, 2025 – Realtor.com
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in May – Calculated Risk
• 10 states with the biggest housing market inventory shift. At the end of May 2025, 10 states had more active housing inventory for sale than they did in May 2019. – Fast Company
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025 – Calculated Risk
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025 2025 – Calculated Risk
• May 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• AI’s Role in Reshaping Employment: From Theory to Home Building Sector Impacts – NAHB  
• Why developers have stopped building apartments – Axios
• Investors Are Selling a Record Share of Homes To Cut Their Losses—Especially in These 5 States – Realtor.com
• Deporting Undocumented Workers Will Make Housing More Expensive – Home Economics
• 75 housing markets where inventory is catching up—fast. Among the nation’s 200 largest housing markets, these 75 metro areas now have active inventory at or above 2019 pre-pandemic levels. – Fast Company
• The Housing Lobby’s Tax Boondoggle
• Republicans may expand a credit that subsidizes real-estate developers. – Wall Street Journal
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May – Calculated Risk
• Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending June 7, 2025 – Realtor.com

On other developments:    

• Making the case for housing as a human right – NPR 
• Homeownership remains out of reach for many. What will it take to change that? – McKinsey
• Homesteading 2.0: A Proposal to Make Housing Affordable Again – AEI
• The Crime of Treating Housing as a Commodity. In New York City, working-class tenants are often victimized by predatory landlords. Their horror stories show the need for radical housing reform inside and outside the city. – Jacobin
• A West Virginia Salary Of Less Than $35K Will Let You Settle Into a Starter Home With Ease – Realtor.com
• Housing Subsidies Boost Costs – Cato
• U.S. Foreclosure Activity Sees a Slight Monthly Decrease in May 2025 – ATTOM
• World Bank Paints a Bleak Picture of the U.S. Economy—What It Means for Homebuyers and Sellers – Realtor.com
• States Can Help End the U.S. Housing Crisis Through Smart Policies – George W. Bush Presidential Center
• Slumlord Millionaire: how landlords, politicians and developers are fueling the housing crisis. New documentary examines how predatory practices, from inhospitable conditions to deed theft, affect New Yorkers – The Guardian
• Homeowners Are 43 Times Wealthier Than Renters – Realtor.com