The Unassuming Economist

Working papers and conferences:

• Did the Modern Mortgage Set the Stage for the U.S. Baby Boom? – NBER
• Ownership Profile of Single-Family Residence Properties in Philadelphia: A Focus on Large Corporate Investors – Philadelphia Fed
• Non-Homothetic Housing Demand and Geographic Worker Sorting – SSRN
• Testing for Persistence in Real House Prices in 47 Countries from the OECD Database – SSRN
• Housing Wealth Across Countries: The Role of Expectations, Institutions and Preferences – SSRN
• Fifty-Year-Olds and the Housing Demand Channel of Monetary Policy – SSRN    

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• The outlook for the US housing market in 2025. With several variables impacting the U.S. housing market — from soaring home prices to rock-bottom demand — where’s the sector headed in 2025? – J.P. Morgan
• Trump Housing Market Warning Issued by JPMorgan Chase – Newsweek
• Four Housing Market Predictions For Industry Professionals To Watch In 2025 – Forbes
• Housing Prices Are Stuck, and So Is the Fed – Barron’s
• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 – Calculated Risk
• Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey – Mortgage Bankers Association
• Fannie Mae Underpins the Mortgage Market. Should the Government Sell It? Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were bailed out by the government during the housing crisis nearly 17 years ago. The Trump administration is considering letting them go private again. – New York Times
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January – Calculated Risk
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January – Calculated Risk
• Is it a buyer’s or seller’s housing market? Zillow’s analysis for over 200 metro areas. This interactive housing market map shows where sellers—and buyers—have the most power right now. – Fast Company
• The Top 10 Metros With the Largest Home Price Increases – Realtor.com
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 – Calculated Risk
• Monthly U.S. Foreclosure Activity Increases in January 2025 – ATTOM
• Home Values in Opportunity Zones Continue to Ride Coattails of National Gains During Fourth Quarter – ATTOM

On the US—other developments:    

• Will Trump Tariffs Harm Home Affordability? Navigating construction material prices amid the new administration’s recent tariffs – CoreLogic
• Canada and Mexico tariffs risk inflating US housing crisis, Trump is warned – The Guardian
• From Missing Middle Housing to Gentle Density: Identifying Affordable Housing Trends Through Policy Tracking – Fiscal Note
• Builders’ Top Challenges for 2025 – NAHB
• Owning a Home More Affordable Than Renting Across U.S. but Both Still Pose Significant Burdens – ATTOM
• Overall Housing Sentiment Ticks Higher Despite Consumers’ Growing Affordability Concerns. Sharply Higher Share of Survey Respondents Expects Rent Prices to Rise – Fannie Mae
• Affordable housing is in short supply across the US. Atlanta may have found a way forward. Mayor Andre Dickens is turning to Atlanta’s own land and resources to create new development opportunities – The Guardian
• A Sore Spot in L.A.’s Housing Crisis: Foreign-Owned Homes Sitting Empty. International buyers, particularly from China, have contributed to the hundreds of thousands of vacant properties in Los Angeles County – Wall Street Journal 
• Non-Cash Rentals House More than Two Million Renters Affordably – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Aging Boomers Are About to Rekindle the Senior-Housing Market. The oldest baby boomers turn 80 in less than a year, and the senior housing market is moving from glut to shortage – Wall Street Journal
• Investing in housing: Unlocking economic mobility for Black families and all Americans – McKinsey
• How to house all Americans. Henry Cisneros and Cullum Clark discuss how to finally end the U.S. housing crisis – George Bush Institute
• Where Were the Top 15 Cities for Home Sales Growth in 2024. Although U.S. home sales decreased in 2024 compared with 2023, some metro areas still posted substantial sales growth – CoreLogic
• Zillow Revenue Grows but Outlook Collides With Subdued Housing Market. Home-listing site projects gains will continue despite challenges including high mortgage rates that have dampened the housing market – Wall Street Journal 
• Housing Unaffordability Is A Policy Choice Not A Technology Problem – Forbes
• The prophet of parking. A eulogy for the great Donald Shoup – The Works in Progress Newsletter
• D.C. mayor proposes permanent rollback of pandemic-era housing protections. Mayor Muriel E. Bowser said the legislation is an attempt to support affordable housing providers who are in crisis mode over unpaid rent. Tenant advocates are worried. – Washington Post
• Multifamily Developer Confidence Reflected Mixed Results in the Fourth Quarter – NAHB

On China:

• Why China Can’t Sort Out Its Property Market Mess – Bloomberg
• China’s Property Crisis Enters a Dangerous New Phase. Risks grow as authorities are forced into a first mainland rescue and iconic Hong Kong developer New World’s bonds sink into distress. – Bloomberg
• Regional Differences and Dynamic Evolution of House Price Bubble Risks in Provincial Areas of China – SSRN

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] The U.S. Housing Market vs. The Australian Housing Market – A Wealth of Common Sense
• [New Zealand] New Zealand hints at letting more foreign investors buy homes – The Straits Times

On other countries:  

• [Andorra] Andorra’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Belgium] Belgium’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Canada] Canada’s housing market outlook: Sustaining recovery in uncertain times – RBC
• [Hungary] Hungary’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Ireland] Tackling housing challenges and reducing public finance vulnerabilities would boost Ireland’s economic resilience and living standards – OECD
• [Portugal] Portugal court spares big banks from paying millions in fines for mortgage collusion – Reuters
• [Romania] Romania’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Saudi Arabia] Saudi Arabia’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Spain] New forecasts for the Spanish real estate sector: the expansionary cycle takes hold in 2025. In 2024, Spain’s real estate market enjoyed a remarkable recovery, with a significant increase in both house prices and sales. Factors such as the growth of gross disposable income, foreign demand and falling rates drove this trend. In this article, we unveil our forecasts for 2025 and explain why we expect this boom to continue. – CaixaBank
• [United Kingdom] The problem with taxing overseas homebuyers. The UK has tinkered with taxes on foreign buyers for a decade — but has it actually helped locals? – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices jump as tax deadline looms, lender Halifax says – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices jump to new high as stamp duty rise looms, says Halifax. Average property price increases by 0.7% in January to record £299,138 as market starts year ‘on positive note’ – The Guardian 
• [United Kingdom] UK Housing Market’s Spring Could Come Early. Declining rates and limited supply point to stronger property prices. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK housing market cools in January but surveyors stay upbeat – Reuters
• [Vietnam] Vietnam’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide

Working papers and conferences:

• Housing Subsidies for Refugees: Experimental Evidence on Life Outcomes and Social Integration in Jordan – NBER
• Housing and Inequality – CEPR
• When land is not enough: Drawing in private investment to increase social rental housing in Spain – Cities
• Measuring Fairness in the U.S. Mortgage Market – Philadelphia Fed
• Constructing Applicants from Loan-Level Data: A Case Study of Mortgage Applications – Philadelphia Fed
• Are First‑Time Home Buyers Facing Desperate Times? – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Subprime Mortgages Destroyed Them. Who Paid the Price? In “The Killing Fields of East New York,” Stacy Horn profiles one 1990s white-collar crime spree and the wreckage it left behind. – New York Times
• What does Taiwan have to do with US mortgage rates? The weird financial dance between Taiwanese life insurers and US homebuyers – FT
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• Mortgage Applications Increase Marginally in January – NAHB
• CoreLogic: Home Price Growth Ticks Up Slightly in December – CoreLogic
• US Home Price Insights –  February 2025 – CoreLogic

On the US—other developments:    

• Trump Tariffs Risk $29,000 Rise in US Home Building Costs. Canada is the US’s biggest foreign supplier of lumber. Tariffs likely to make it harder for Americans to afford homes – Bloomberg
• Climate Change to Wipe Away $1.5 Trillion in U.S. Home Values, Study Says. Rising home-insurance costs and more homeowners spurning some risky neighborhoods will drive these declines, according to First Street – Wall Street Journal
• That Giant Sucking Sound? It’s Climate Change Devouring Your Home’s Value. – New York Times
• Unaffordability in the West Accelerates Mortgage Buydowns – CoreLogic
• To Rebuild Los Angeles, Fix Zoning. A lot more housing is needed, and not primarily in the areas destroyed by the fires. – The Atlantic
• Are First‑Time Home Buyers Facing Desperate Times? – New York Fed
• Where the housing market shift is happening the fastest right now. Inventory is a key housing metric. Here’s what it’s telling us right now, according to ResiClub’s latest monthly report. – Fast Company
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December. Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Declined Slightly in December – Calculated Risk
• Construction Labor Market Softens – NAHB  
• Homeownership Rate for Younger Households Declines – NAHB
• Minnesota’s Multifamily Housing Industry Faces Rising Property Insurance Costs – Minneapolis Fed
• US Housing Market Is Doing Something ‘Very Unusual’ – Newsweek
• Nearly 70% of Single People Struggle to Afford Housing Payments, Compared to 52% of Married People – Redfin
• Will Congress Regulate AI’s Rapid Growth in Real Estate? – CoreLogic   

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Australian House Prices Fall Further Led by Sydney and Melbourne. Outlook expected to improve somewhat if rates are reduced. But affordability, slower immigration will keep a lid on gains – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] Average Wellington house prices plummet nearly 25 percent in latest official valuations – RNZ
• [New Zealand] Economist warns Kiwis not to ‘bet the house’ on housing market – RNZ
• [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices crash – MacroBusiness

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Vancouver: Listings surge as sellers anticipate a housing market revival – National Bank of Canada
• [Canada] Measuring unmet housing need and housing instability in households with roommates and extended family – Statistics Canada
• [Canada] Building new homes in the path of floods and wildfires could cost billions, threaten affordability: report. First-of-its-kind analysis shows significant financial risks from climate change-fuelled disasters unless a small proportion of the new homes needed by 2030 are built out of harm’s way. – Canadian Climate Institute
• [Russia] Moscow Property Rivals London as Rich Russians Bring Cash Home. High-end real estate in the city is seeing a surge in demand as Russians invest back home and turn away from overseas deals because of sanctions. – Bloomberg
• [Spain] La vivienda ya es más cara que nunca: el precio medio superó en 2024 a los años de la burbuja. El importe promedio, con 2.086 euros por metro cuadrado, fue superior al de 2006 y 2007, según la estadística registral, que certifica un nuevo auge del mercado – El Pais
• [Spain] España gasta cuatro veces menos que Europa en vivienda social. El país invirtió de media 34 euros por habitante en asistencia habitacional entre 2007 y 2021, lejos de los 160 euros de la media europea – El Pais
• [Spain] Nuevas previsiones para el sector inmobiliario español: el ciclo alcista se afianza en 2025 – CaixaBank
• [United Kingdom] Peace, permanence and affordable prices: six ways to solve Britain’s housing crisis – The Guardian

From a paper by Nestor Garza, Ivo Gasic, Clemente Larrain:

“This paper aims to build a set of long-term, geographically controlled land value indices for Santiago de Chile, with which to test land rent theory predictions regarding macroeconomic impacts. This paper uses a geographic cluster approach to the Laspeyres estimator, weighted by the stock of available land plots and their market offers per zone, to create two quarterly land value indices for Gran Santiago during the period 1983Q4–2016Q2. Subsequently, this paper implements dynamic time series methods (Vector Error Correction) as a baseline to determine the effect of economic performance and interest rate on urban land values. The two land value indices are correctly predicted by economic and interest rate shocks, as theoretically expected. In addition, this paper found that land values grew faster-than-predicted during the period of the so-called “Chilean Miracle” (1992–1998), a situation associated in the literature with worsened housing affordability and socio-spatial inequality.” 

From a paper by Alessandra Fogli, Veronica Guerrieri, Mark Ponder, and Marta Prato:

“Since the 1980s, the US has experienced not only a steady increase in income inequality, but also a contemporaneous rise in residential segregation by income. What is the relationship between inequality and residential segregation? How does it affect intergenerational mobility? We first document a positive correlation between inequality and segregation, both over time and across metro areas. We then develop a general equilibrium model where parents choose the neighborhood where they raise their children and invest in their children’s education. In the model, segregation and inequality amplify each other because of a local spillover that affects the return to education. We calibrate the model to a representative US metro in 1980 and use the micro estimates of neighborhood exposure effects in Chetty and Hendren (2018b) to discipline the strength of the local spillover. We first use the calibrated version of the model to explore the economy’s response to an unexpected skill premium shock. We find that segregation dynamics played a significant role in amplifying the increase in inequality and in dampening intergenerational mobility. We then use the model to explore the effects of policies designed to move poor families to better neighborhoods, like the Moving To Opportunity (MTO) program. We show that scaling up MTO policies induces general equilibrium effects that limit their efficacy.”

From a paper by Nafeesa Yunus:

“This study examines the impact of aggregate oil shocks and disentangled oil shocks on U.S. and seven major securitized real estate markets. Oil is integrated with the markets and leads them over the long-run. The short-run impact of oil shocks on the markets is negative. A disentangled analysis of oil shocks reveals that supply and demand shocks have differential impacts. Over the long-run, supply shocks have little impact, while demand shocks contribute significantly to common trends and lead each market. In the short-run, demand shocks have positive effects on each market, whereas supply shocks have negative but lesser effects.”