The Unassuming Economist

The IMF’s latest report on Romania says that:

• “Notwithstanding these improvements, vulnerabilities arise from the high exposure of banks to the real estate sector and sovereign debt. Real estate exposure rose with housing loans increasing from 21 to 54 percent of household loans between 2008 and 2017. These mortgage contracts (mostly at variable rates) expose banks to credit risks in the event of sharp increases in interest rates. The effectiveness of existing macroprudential tools on mortgages is undermined by the Prima Casa program, which allows loan-to-value ratios up to 95 percent. The Romanian banking system has also a large exposure to their own sovereign debt (one of the highest in the EU at around 20 percent of assets in 2017), that could lead to valuation losses in the event of interest rate increases. Finally, despite declining considerably since 2011, about 35 percent of banks’ liabilities and assets remain denominated in foreign exchange (FX), and FX liquidity risks can exist within an environment of ample overall liquidity.”

 

• “A Debt-Service-to-Income (DSTI) limit on mortgage lending would mitigate risks from the exposure of banks to the real estate sector. An appropriately set DSTI limit can boost borrowers’ resilience and should be imposed on all mortgages, including those made under
  the Prima Casa program. In this context, staff welcomed the government’s strategy to gradually scale back the program.”

From the IMF’s latest report on Thailand:

On cross-country:

• Book: Housing Policy, Wellbeing and Social Development in Asia – Taylor & Francis Group
• Conference: National Housing Conference – Canada Mortgage Housing Corporation
• Southern European housing policies: a legislative regulation perspective – Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa

On the US:

• Leaning Against Housing Prices as Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy – NBER
• Why Don’t House Price Growth and Inflation Move in Tandem? – Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
• Help wanted: Home builders need women, immigrants and robots to fill shortage – MarketWatch
• Where the House-Price-to-Income Ratio Is Most Out of Whack – Citylab
• Mortgage Interest Deduction Reform Worked; Sky Isn’t Falling – Cato Institute
• How Student Debt Can Ruin Home Buying Dreams – New York Times
• Quest for Affordable Housing Drives People Away From the Coasts – Pew Charitable Trusts
• Alexandria, Virginia Gets Housing Affordability Wrong – Cato Institute

On other countries:

• [Australia] Seven Charts That Show Why Australia’s Housing Boom Is Ending – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Chinese property investment in Australia plummets – Financial Times
• [Australia] Inquiry into increasing affordable housing supply: Evidence-based principles and strategies for Australian policy and practice – Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute
• [Canada] Determinants of housing prices: evidence from Ontario cities, 2001-2011 – Emerald Insight
• [Canada] Canada’s ‘Unprecedented’ Reliance on Housing Fuels Recession Call – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Bank of Canada Seen on Hold Amid Trade Uncertainty, Housing Slowdown – Wall Street Journal
• [China] China’s Toughest Housing Curbs Test Limits of Speculative Buyers – Bloomberg
• [Hungary] Property prices boom in Budapest – Financial Times
• [Korea] Housing investment, default risk, and expectations: Focusing on the chonsei market in Korea – Regional Science and Urban Economics
• [Netherlands] Amsterdam Bets on Social Housing to Beat Soaring Prices – Bloomberg
• [Rwanda] How can the mismatch in housing supply be addressed? – The New Times
• [South Africa] Cape Town Rocked by Protests as Poor Communities Demand Housing – Bloomberg
• [United Arab Emirates] Why affordability is the new buzzword in Dubai real estate – JLL
• [United Kingdom] Will London Ever Get Affordable Housing? – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK Housing Review 2018 – UK Housing Review

Photo by Aliis Sinisalu

From the IMF’s latest report on Qatar:

From the IMF’s latest report on Colombia: