Showing posts with label Global Housing Watch.   Show all posts

Housing View – September 15, 2023

On cross-country:

  • A Tale of Two Housing Markets. Why are the UK and US housing markets going in opposite directions? – FT


Working Papers and Conferences

  • 12th Annual Housing Conference on October 31 and November 1 – AEI
  • The Intergenerational Transmission of Housing Wealth – NBER
  • Price Discrimination and Mortgage Choice – NBER 
  • Urban Renewal and Inequality: Evidence from Chicago’s Public Housing Demolitions – Philadelphia Fed
  • Racial and Gender Discrimination in the Housing Market: A Review – SSRN
  • Housing Assistance Policy for Mortgage Borrowers: Liquidity Improvements or Price Acceleration? – SSRN
  • Dust Storms and Housing Market – SSRN
  • A Global Housing Affordability Upheaval after Covid-19 – SSRN


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • US Mortgage Rates Ease From Highs, Falling for Second Week. Average for a 30-year loan has been above 7% for four weeks. Tight inventory in housing market has kept prices elevated – Bloomberg
  • Should you fix your mortgage for ever? You can ignore rising rates, but you pay an arm and a leg – The Economist
  • The Fall in Home Prices May Already Be Over. Quick recovery in prices suggests housing downturn could be shorter, shallower than expected – Wall Street Journal 
  • ‘Blame the Boomers’ for Surging House Prices, Barclays Says. Forget the lock-in effect, it’s all about household formation. – Bloomberg
  • Housing will keep the Fed honest. Expensive mortgages have not stopped a home price rebound – FT


On the US—other developments:
    

  • Rising Insurance Rates Are Crushing Affordable Housing Developers. Natural disasters and crime are being blamed for property insurance hikes that are frustrating builders of much-needed new apartment buildings. – Bloomberg
  • Redfin Survey: 1 in 5 Millennial Respondents Believe They’ll Never Own a Home – Redfin
  • One Explanation for Booming US Growth. Weak home construction was hurting the economy last year—not anymore – Aziz Sunderji
  • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in August. Early Reporting Markets suggest Sales in August close to July SAAR – Calculated Risk
  • 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in August. Early Reporting Markets suggest Sales in August close to or below July SAAR – Calculated Risk
  • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September – Calculated Risk
  • Issue 12: Houston, we have a solution. Plus: How Mexico built its state, the causes of the Baby Boom, and the 141-year quest for a malaria vaccine. – Work in Progress
  • Amazon and other companies invested in affordable housing. Did it work? – The Guardian
  • The Student-Debt Bubble Fueled a Housing Bubble. Fannie and Freddie ignore much of what borrowers owe, allowing them to qualify for huge mortgages – Wall Street Journal
  • A Hidden Reason Cities Fall Apart – New York Times
  • How the federal government can encourage innovative housing policies that improve supply and affordability – Brookings
  • When the Homeowners Association Comes for Your Home. A spate of foreclosures filed by HOAs in Denver illustrate the potential risks of a increasingly common homeownership model. – Bloomberg


On China:

  • Beijing Throws China’s Housing Market a Bone. Policy paralysis of the past half year has given way to stronger signals that Beijing wants to support the market – Wall Street Journal
  • How Country Garden Plays Into China’s Property Mess – Bloomberg
  • China’s major banks to lower rates on existing first-home mortgages – Reuters
  • China’s Housing Measures Fall Short of Stimulating Steel Demand. Mysteel says home-buying focus will take time to affect market. Steelmakers cut production in late August to seven-month low – Bloomberg
  • Iron Ore Declines as Data Shows China Property Concerns Persist. Prices fall for first day in three as home sales lose momentum. Fate of steel-making material depends on property sector: CBA – Bloomberg


On other countries:
 

  • [Australia] Australia Seals $6.4 Billion Housing Program to Tackle Crisis. Signature policy will pass Senate with Greens Party support. Deal will create investment fund to build 30,000 new homes – Bloomberg
  • [Australia] Australia’s property price surge stems from domestic issues, not Chinese buyers. The market impact of foreign buyers has been exaggerated. Pointing the finger at foreigners is a distraction from the main problem bedevilling Australia’s housing market – a severe shortage exacerbated by the lack of needed planning reform – South China Morning Post
  • [Australia] House prices just keep rising – everyone but the Australian government can see it’s a good investment. Taking an equity stake in a sector that so far has weathered three of most turbulent years makes financial sense and would improve housing affordability – The Guardian
  • [Australia] Distressed listings on the rise – Financial Review
  • [Canada] Canada’s government, pressured over housing shortage, tells cities to do more – Reuters
  • [Canada] Canada plans incentives to ease housing burden, CBC reports – Reuters
  • [Canada] Canada’s mortgage stress test is ‘imperfect’, review ongoing, regulator head says – Reuters
  • [United Arab Emirates] Dubai Apartment Prices Jump Most in a Decade as Home Boom Widens. Dubai apartment prices surged 20% in the year to August: CBRE. Values for apartments had lagged larger, single-family houses – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK Rents to Rise 25% by 2026 as Landlords Pass On Mortgage Costs. BOE hikes affecting rents more than home values, Hamptons says. Housing market is under pressure from spike in mortgage prices – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

  • A Tale of Two Housing Markets. Why are the UK and US housing markets going in opposite directions? – FT

Working Papers and Conferences

  • 12th Annual Housing Conference on October 31 and November 1 – AEI
  • The Intergenerational Transmission of Housing Wealth – NBER
  • Price Discrimination and Mortgage Choice – NBER 
  • Urban Renewal and Inequality: Evidence from Chicago’s Public Housing Demolitions – Philadelphia Fed
  • Racial and Gender Discrimination in the Housing Market: A Review – SSRN
  • Housing Assistance Policy for Mortgage Borrowers: Liquidity Improvements or Price Acceleration?

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – September 8, 2023

On cross-country:

  • The growing global movement to restrain house prices. From America to New Zealand YIMBYs push market-led solutions – The Economist
  • Only five cities worldwide are more unaffordable than Sydney for housing, thinktank says. Committee for Sydney urges residents to ‘become a yimby’ after finding housing crisis costs economy more than $10bn per year – The Guardian
  • To fix broken mortgage markets, look to Denmark. Rising interest rates have exposed the problems with many home loans – The Economist
  • Global house price downturn fades, most markets to rise in 2024: Reuters poll – Reuters
  • A new blow for Generation Rent. The young and lower-paid are being priced out of housing lets as well as purchases – FT


Working Papers and Conferences

  • COVID and cities, thus far – VoxEU
  • Housing Adequacy in Delhi, Dhaka and Karachi: Lessons for Promoting Sustainable and Inclusive Housing in Developing Countries – SSRN
  • Ethnicity in Housing Markets: Buyers, Sellers and Agents – SSRN
  • Returns to Homeownership and Inequality: Evidence from the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit – SSRN
  • Forecasting Housing Prices with Network Information – SSRN  
  • Can Measurement Error Explain Slow Productivity Growth in Construction? – SSRN  
  • Housing Market Responses to the Mortgage Interest Deduction – SSRN  
  • Effect of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks on Housing Prices in Canada – SSRN  
  • Post-Foreclosure Trajectories in the American Rental Market: Focus on the Trade-Offs between Neighborhood and Housing Outcomes – SSRN  
  • The impact of upzoning on housing construction in Auckland – SSRN  


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Rising Rents Are Hitting American Suburbs Hardest. Suburban rent growth exceeds its urban counterpart in 28 of 33 metro areas, a new study finds – Wall Street Journal
  • Asking Rents Down 1.2% Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
  • How Biden’s goal to boost Black homeownership could be undone by a new mortgage rule. `These requirements would have the impact of exacerbating the already too-high homeownership gap,’ said Marc Morial, head of the National Urban League. – Politico


On the US—other developments:
    


On China:

  • China stirs hope in property market with latest stimulus plan. Beijing seeks to rekindle growth in economically crucial sector but investors remain cautious – FT
  • Debt Crisis Threatens to Engulf China’s Surviving Developers. About two-thirds of 50 major private builders are defaulters. The 16 survivors face $1.5 billion bond payments this month – Bloomberg
  • China Cuts Down Payment, Mortgage Rates in Stimulus Drive. National down payment for first time home purchases cut to 20%. Cities can decide their own rate according to market condition – Bloomberg
  • China boosts housing market and renminbi support. Cheaper mortgages offered in biggest cities while central bank eases foreign exchange reserve requirements – FT
  • Beijing Eases Mortgage Rules for More Buyers to Spur Sales. Shanghai also expanded definition of first-time buyers. Central government has given leeway to local officials – Bloomberg


On other countries:
 

  • [Australia] Australia Property Prices Accelerate as Supply Shortfall Bites. Swelling population is absorbing housing that comes to market. That’s despite 12 interest-rate hikes from RBA to cool demand – Bloomberg
  • [Australia] Australian Homes Are Least Affordable in 30 Years After Hikes. Households on median income could afford to buy 13% of homes. RBA hiked interest rates aggressively to try to cool inflation – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] The Housing Crisis Isn’t Going Anywhere Until We Tackle Property Wealth Inequality. The housing crisis will never end without levying forceful taxes against real estate speculators and investors. A recent report outlines the necessary actions to impose taxes that can actually narrow the wealth gap and alleviate the housing emergency. – Jacobin
  • [Canada] Canada to change how it counts foreign students, workers amid housing crunch – Reuters
  • [India] India house prices on track for steady rises, affordability to worsen: Reuters poll – Reuters
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Post Smallest Decline This Year – Bloomberg
  • [Portugal] Portugal Home Prices Defy Rate Hikes on Strong Foreign Demand. Real estate developer says about 65% of buyers are foreigners. High property prices caused by foreign demand, housing crunch – Bloomberg
  • [Sweden] Swedish Housing Prices Rise for Third Month, Defying Rate Rise – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Fall the Most in 14 Years, Nationwide Says. First figures for August signal the downturn is intensifying. Sharp increase in mortgage costs is weighing on buyers – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] London’s bidding war escalates as rising rates hit buy-to-let. Tenants in the UK capital face surging rents and eviction as landlords pass on pressure from higher borrowing costs – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK Housing Downturn Moves Into New Phase With Prices Falling Even Faster. Property market under pressure from spiraling mortgage costs. Home deals, demand, mortgage approvals all dropped this summer. – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

  • The growing global movement to restrain house prices. From America to New Zealand YIMBYs push market-led solutions – The Economist
  • Only five cities worldwide are more unaffordable than Sydney for housing, thinktank says. Committee for Sydney urges residents to ‘become a yimby’ after finding housing crisis costs economy more than $10bn per year – The Guardian
  • To fix broken mortgage markets, look to Denmark.

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – September 1, 2023

On cross-country:

  • 20 Countries where Housing Prices are Declining or Flat – Yahoo Finance
  • Extreme renting: Estonia start-up boom fuels EU’s biggest cost rises. High levels of home ownership in the Baltic nation mean rents are volatile to market changes and fuelled by expat workers – FT


Working Papers and Conferences


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • How can American house prices still be rising? Mortgage payments are at their highest since the mid-1980s – The Economist
  • America Has a Mortgage Problem New York Times
  • Zillow to offer a 1% down payment loan program – CNN
  • Mortgage Rates at 7% Are Making Everything Worse for US Homebuyers. With supply tight and prices rising, deals are frozen with little relief in sight. – Bloomberg
  • Why Are Mortgage Rates So High, and How Long Will They Stay Up? Economists say loan rates are affected by a complicated combination of factors, but there are tactics consumers can use to land a lower rate. – New York Times
  • Fannie Mae Single-Family Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Lowest since 2002 – Calculated Risk
  • U.S. Home Prices Held Steady in June. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index was unchanged year-over-year in June – Wall Street Journal
  • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Unchanged year-over-year in June. “FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for June was up 0.3 percent from May.” – Calculated Risk
  • US home prices show signs of stabilizing, reports show – Reuters
  • Short U.S. housing correction likely over; tight supply to keep prices high: Reuters poll – Reuters


On the US—other developments:
    

  • The Next Big Housing Markets: Where To Invest in 2024 – Yahoo Finance 
  • Small Multifamily Homes Were Disappearing. Now States Are Scrambling to Revive Them. Construction of low-density housing like duplexes hovers near record lows, as states pass zoning reform to tackle the affordable housing crisis. – Bloomberg
  • The Hottest Zip Codes of 2023 – Realtor.com
  • Just How Unaffordable Is the US Housing Market? Americans have been stretching their finances to buy homes since the 1970s, and this time is no different. – Bloomberg   


On China:

  • How Evergrande’s downfall signaled China’s property crisis – Reuters
  • Chinese banks to cut existing mortgage rates as property crisis deepens – Reuters
  • China Eases Home Purchase Rules in New Push to Boost Economy. Beijing proposes that local governments scrap a mortgage rule. More people to be recognized as first-time buyers as a result – Bloomberg
  • China approves guidelines to boost affordable housing amid property debt crisis – Reuters
  • Paid Late, or Never: Painters, Builders and Realtors Hit by China’s Property Crisis. As a real estate meltdown ripples through the economy, small businesses and workers are owed hundreds of billions of dollars, and new projects have dried up. – New York Times
  • China Banks to Cut Rates on Mortgages, Deposits in Stimulus Push. China’s state banks are being enlisted to support economy. Beijing is struggling to boost economy, investor confidence – Bloomberg
  • Country Garden asks for more time to repay renminbi bond. Proposal for grace period is further sign of financial strain on China’s property sector – FT


On other countries:
 

  • [Australia] Think curbing overseas migration will end the housing crisis? It won’t – and we can’t afford to do it – The Conversation
  • [Canada] Little relief for indebted Canadian homeowners as mortgage rates seen higher for longer – Reuters
  • [Canada] Canada considers foreign student cap over housing crisis – BBC
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong home prices drop for third month in July, down 1.1% – Reuters
  • [Germany] Germany’s ruling party plans to curb rent increases. SPD set to unveil measures to tackle soaring costs facing tenants, says senior lawmaker – FT
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices to rise again on supply shortage, rate cut hopes: Reuters poll – Reuters
  • [Sweden] Sweden Housing Starts Nosedive in Sign of Worse Shortage to Come – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

  • 20 Countries where Housing Prices are Declining or Flat – Yahoo Finance
  • Extreme renting: Estonia start-up boom fuels EU’s biggest cost rises. High levels of home ownership in the Baltic nation mean rents are volatile to market changes and fuelled by expat workers – FT

Working Papers and Conferences

  • The External Costs of Industrial Chemical Accidents: A Nationwide Property Value Study – Journal of Housing Economics
  • Moving to the country: Understanding the effects of Covid-19 on property values and farmland development risk – Journal of Housing Economics
  • Flood insurance reforms,

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – August 25, 2023

On cross-country:

  • Extreme renting: how rising rates turned the screws on tenants across Europe. Heated market in housing hotspots is compounded by increasing mortgage costs deterring buyers – FT
  • Extreme renting: Santorini’s teachers forced to rough it in Airbnb haven. Tourists flocking to Greek islands and Italian cities are pricing out public sector workers and students – FT


Conference/Working Papers

  • 12th Annual Housing Conference – AEI
  • Why Zoning is Too Restrictive – SSRN
  • The Housing Supply Channel of Monetary Policy – SSRN
  • The Impacts of Local Housing Markets on U.S. Presidential Elections: Via the Collateral Channel – SSRN
  • Short-term rentals and housing market: Evidence from portuguese metropolitan areas – University of Surrey
  • Air Pollution and Rent Prices: Evidence from Wildfire Smoke – SSRN
  • Socio-Spatial Insights into Evictions Governance and Tenant Movements During the Covid-19 Pandemic – SSRN 


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:
   

  • Have Rising Mortgage Rates Frozen the Housing Market? Not as Much as You’d Think – Apricitas Economics
  • How High a Rate Can Housing Take? Home builders are thriving despite high mortgage rates, but homeowners might have less to celebrate if they persist – Wall Street Journal
  • Mortgage Rates Hit 7.09%, Highest in More Than 20 Years. Interest rates hit housing hard: Would-be buyers are locked out, and would-be sellers are staying put – Wall Street Journal
  • Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – August 2023 – Freddie Mac
  • Banks Don’t Love Rich Mortgage Borrowers as Much as They Used To. The Fed’s interest-rate hikes and recent bank failures mean lenders aren’t competing so fiercely for jumbo loans – Wall Street Journal


On the US—other developments:
    

  • Goodbye Bathtub and Living Room. America’s Homes Are Shrinking. Faced with high mortgage rates, cost-constrained Americans are embracing smaller homes – Wall Street Journal
  • Airbnb Hosts and Guests Scramble as New York Begins Crackdown. New short-term rental regulations could eliminate huge blocks of listings for visitors looking for options beyond hotels – Wall Street Journal 
  • Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July. 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in July; California Sales Down 9% YoY Calculated Risk
  • Too Many Vacant Lots, Not Enough Housing: The U.S. Real-Estate Puzzle. In Chicago, Pittsburgh and Detroit neighborhoods where houses are surrounded by empty lots, authorities are starting to bulldoze obstacles to development – Wall Street Journal
  • Single-Family Home Size Moves Lower to More than a Decade Low – NAHB
  • 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in July. A few more local markets prior to the NAR release – Calculated Risk
  • New High Share for Multifamily Built-for-Rent – NAHB
  • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.07 million SAAR in July. Median Prices Increased 1.9% YoY in July – Calculated Risk
  • Buyers: Results from the Zillow Consumer Housing Trends Report 2023 – Zillow


On China:

  • Why It’s So Hard for China to Fix Its Real Estate Crisis. Beijing has often addressed economic troubles by boosting spending on infrastructure and real estate, but now heavy debt loads make that a hard playbook to follow – New York Times
  • China should stick to ‘houses are for living, not for speculation’ – state media – Reuters 
  • What to Know About China’s Real Estate Crisis. China’s economy was long dependent on a booming real estate sector, which has recently fallen on harder times. – New York Times
  • China’s property crisis leaves Country Garden with unpaid workers, silent sites – Reuters
  • Why It’s So Hard for China to Fix Its Real Estate Crisis. Beijing has often addressed economic troubles by boosting spending on infrastructure and real estate, but now heavy debt loads make that a hard playbook to follow. – Wall Street Journal
  • China Is on Edge as Fallout From Its Real Estate Crisis Spreads. Beijing wanted to cool its housing market, but created a bigger problem, as the fallout from debt-laden developers and sinking sales spreads to the broader economy. – New York Times
  • How bad could China’s property crisis get? Country Garden is on the edge of default. Here is a worst-case scenario – The Economist
  • For Single Women in China, Owning a Home Is a New Form of Resistance. The housing market in China is in turmoil. But more and more women, facing a less equal society, are buying their own homes in search of security. – New York Times
  • Chinese developer Evergrande files for US bankruptcy protection. Property group’s 2021 bond default triggered sector-wide liquidity crisis in China – FT 
  • Property shakeout Beijing’s tool to fight fiefdoms. There’s no financial crisis in China, just a political standoff over local government finances – Asia Times
  • China’s property woes sparking contagion fears. Beleaguered property developers are finding it more and more difficult to pay back bank loans and meet debt obligations – Asia Times
  • China’s property sector, not deflation risk, is its top economic worry. China’s consumer price index falling for the first time since 2021 has raised fears of deflation, but a closer look at the data paints a different picture. Weak home sales and large developers’ ailing finances are weighing on the property sector as policymakers try to revive spending but keep housing affordable – South China Morning Post
  • China surprisingly holds mortgage rate, underwhelming move raises easing outlook concerns. China’s one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was cut from 3.55 per cent to 3.45 per cent, but the five-year LPR remained unchanged at 4.2 per cent. Analysts have warned that a real impact on housing demand and the economy would require more than just rate cuts – South China Morning Post


On other countries:
 

  • [Australia] Housing plans unlikely to close door on rent rises – Financial Review
  • [Canada] Canada considering foreign student visa cap to address housing shortage – Reuters
  • [Germany] German home building permits tumble amid calls for stimulus – Reuters
  • [Singapore] Singapore to Tackle Public Housing Worries After Surge in Prices. Analysts expect tweaks to income ceiling, more subsidies. PM Lee signaled policy adjustments are on the way in speech – Bloomberg
  • [South Korea] IMF Sees Debt Risks for Korean Non-Bank Lenders Tied to Property. ‘Pockets of vulnerability’ seen, notably among non-bank firms. Property sector is systemically important: IMF’s Korea chief – Bloomberg
  • [Sweden] Swedish Housing Market Gets Good News as Prices May Have Bottomed. Home prices are down 12% from peak and may have reached trough. Most forecasters have penciled in 20% drop in values – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Young Buyers Get Boost from Improving UK Housing Affordability. Surge in wages causes fall in house price to earnings ratio. However, the burden of mortgages for UK households rises – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

  • Extreme renting: how rising rates turned the screws on tenants across Europe. Heated market in housing hotspots is compounded by increasing mortgage costs deterring buyers – FT
  • Extreme renting: Santorini’s teachers forced to rough it in Airbnb haven. Tourists flocking to Greek islands and Italian cities are pricing out public sector workers and students – FT

Conference/Working Papers

  • 12th Annual Housing Conference – AEI
  • Why Zoning is Too Restrictive – SSRN
  • The Housing Supply Channel of Monetary Policy – SSRN
  • The Impacts of Local Housing Markets on U.S.

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – August 18, 2023

On cross-country:

  • Housing costs making UK households much poorer than US peers, study finds. Report says wealth gap would be wider if not for over-priced or ineffective services such as healthcare in US – The Guardian
  • Global Residential Update – Knight Frank


Conference/Working Papers

  • Borrowing constraints, own labour and homeownership – IDEAS
  • Mortgage Spreads and the Yield Curve – Richmond Fed
  • Monetary policy transmission with adjustable and fixed rate mortgages: The role of credit supply – VoxEU 


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Location, location, location: Mortgage rate impact varies by metro – Dallas Fed
  • The “New Normal” Mortgage Rate Range – Calculated Risk
  • Gen Z’s Housing Anguish. To afford rent, young American adults are making tough choices. – New York Times
  • Builder Confidence Falls on Rising Mortgage Rates – NAHB
  • US Housing Affordability Hits Worst Point in Nearly Four Decades. A surge in borrowing costs is making home purchases more expensive with little relief in sight. – Bloomberg
  • US housing starts surge in boost to economy – Reuters


On the US—other developments:    

  • The Long-Term Housing and Population Shift – Calculated Risk
  • 2023 Q2 Cross-Market Demand Report: A Growing Number of Home Shoppers Are Looking for Homes in Other Markets – Realtor.com
  • 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in July. Local Market Data Suggests July Sales Rate Close to June Sales Rate – Calculated Risk
  • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August – Calculated Risk
  • July Housing Starts: Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction. Housing Starts Increased to 1.452 million Annual Rate in July – Calculated Risk
  • US homebuilders defy interest rate rise as Buffett buys in. New construction makes up 30% of market with current homeowners clinging to cheaper mortgages – FT
  • Warren Buffett just made a big bet on the U.S. housing market – Fortune
  • CoreLogic: US Home Investor Share Remained High in Early Summer 2023 – Calculated Risk
  • US housing market in gridlock, with risks emerging – ING
  • Why Wall Street is Gung-ho on the Housing Market. Despite mortgage rates hitting multidecade highs and jitters in the bond market, demand for new homes is strong and prices are rising. – New York Times  


On China:

  • China’s deepening property crisis threatens trouble. Country Garden is on the edge of default. What would a worst-case scenario look like? – The Economist
  • China Home Prices Drop at Faster Pace as Downturn Worsens. Second month of declines adds to evidence of weaker market. Government is trying to rekindle demand in housing sector – Bloomberg
  • China’s Housing Slump Is Much Worse Than Official Data Shows. Property values show variance between agents, official data. Uncertainty over data could have implications for policy – Bloomberg
  • China’s housing market is . . . not good. How long until it bans property data releases as well? – FT
  • China’s Economic Woes Deepen With Housing Market Slump – Bloomberg
  • Contagion fears spread as China property sector cash crunch intensifies – Reuters
  • China’s Deepening Housing Problems Spook Investors. Stocks in Hong Kong and mainland China drop after developer Country Garden flags more debt problems – Wall Street Journal  
  • The moment of reckoning looms large for China’s property market as crisis deepens. There are signs China’s real estate party is coming to an end, and the moment of reckoning is looming large for property developers, homeowners and the government. China’s move to allow home ownership in the late 1990s unleashed a spectacular property market boom, leading to phenomenal wealth creation – South China Morning Post


On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Australian PM Offers Cash to States to Help Ease Housing Crisis. Rents recorded biggest increase in 14 years in second quarter. Government’s signature housing laws remain stuck in the Senate – Bloomberg
  • [Australia] National cabinet agrees to build 1.2m new homes in bid to tackle housing crisis. Albanese announces ‘new home bonus’ of up to $3bn for states and territories but continues to reject Greens calls for rent freeze – The Guardian
  • [Australia] Back yard blitz: are Australia’s heritage laws thwarting housing density? Urban density advocates say heritage laws are being weaponised to constrain development at a time of housing crisis, but experts say the two can live side by side – The Guardian
  • [Australia] The regional housing markets where prices are set to surge – Financial Review
  • [Korea] South Korea house prices snap 13 months of decline – Reuters
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices edge higher, buyers returning to market – Reinz – New Straits Times 
  • [Sweden] Swedes Signal Optimism on Home Prices for Third Straight Month – Bloomberg
  • [Sweden] Sweden’s Depressed Housing Starts Exacerbate Shortage of Homes. Dwelling component of Byggfakta indicator is at nine-year low. Decline in home construction follows housing market slump – Bloomberg
  • [United Arab Emirates] Dubai’s Housing Boom Starts to Spread to the City’s Outskirts. Apartment prices rise at record pace amid strong demand. Demand rises in secondary districts where values had lagged – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] The UK Housing Market Hangs in the Balance – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

  • Housing costs making UK households much poorer than US peers, study finds. Report says wealth gap would be wider if not for over-priced or ineffective services such as healthcare in US – The Guardian
  • Global Residential Update – Knight Frank

Conference/Working Papers

  • Borrowing constraints, own labour and homeownership – IDEAS
  • Mortgage Spreads and the Yield Curve – Richmond Fed
  • Monetary policy transmission with adjustable and fixed rate mortgages: The role of credit supply – VoxEU 

On the US—developments on house prices,

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

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