The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by François de Soyres, Simon Fuchs, Illenin O. Kondo, and Helene Maghin:

“We show how local worker flow adjustment margins yield a theory-consistent sufficient statistic
approximating the welfare effects of local shocks. Furthermore, we isolate a city’s insurance value
as this approximation’s second-order term. Leveraging rich labor flows data across occupations,
industries, and cities in France, we estimate spatial and non-spatial flows responses to local labor
demand shocks. Less economically diverse French cities experience deeper contractions in gross
outflows following negative shocks. In contrast, more economic concentration begets a modestly
larger increase in gross worker flows following positive shocks. Altogether, we uncover a sizable
welfare insurance gains from local economic diversity.”

Working papers and conferences:

• The Distaste for Housing Density – NBER
• The Determinants of Local Housing Supply in England – CEPR

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• What can the next administration do about the US housing shortage? – Brookings
• Scariest Charts of the Week – Real Estate Decoded
• All-Cash Sales and Prices Decline in the Third Quarter – NAHB
• This Year’s Housing Turnaround Ended Before It Started. Sales of existing homes are on track for the worst two-year period since the mid-1990s – Wall Street Journal
• Owner-Occupied Single-Family Housing Units Across Congressional Districts – NAHB
• Pending Home Sales in US See Biggest Gain Since Summer 2020. Index of sales remains low despite outsize September rise. All US regions report increases, led by jump in western states – Bloomberg
• Housing market faces 7% mortgage rates again—here’s what is really going on. The Fed lowered interest rates, so why are the mortgage rates for the housing market climbing back up again? – Fast Company 
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in September; Up 3.6% Year-over-year. 17 of the 30 worst performing cities are now in Florida! – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

• Why a Key Biden Effort to Boost Affordable Housing Has Faced Hurdles. The Biden administration rolled out a plan last year to create more housing by unlocking more than $35 billion in lending capacity. It has yet to close on any loans that would support housing-related projects. – New York Times
• What Harris and Trump plan to do about housing costs. Housing affordability has become a key issue for both the Trump and Harris campaigns. Today on “Post Reports,” what each candidate is proposing to do about the housing crisis, and whether their solutions could actually work. – Washington Post
• Can Public Housing Play a Role in a New American Social Housing System? – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Boosting Housing Affordability: Practical Suggestions for Congress and the White House. How executive actions and new laws in Washington can help reform efforts in the states. – Mercatus Center
• To Fix the Affordable Housing Shortage, Policymakers Should Support Smarter Housing Policies Instead of Using Immigration to Evade Responsibility. Avoiding the real issues causing higher housing costs distracts from constructive solutions to solve America’s housing shortage. – Center for American Progress
• Where do Trump and Harris stand on housing, taxes and other policies? Polls show US voters unhappy about the economy, their top election concern. How would the presidential candidates address economic issues such as cost of living and labor? – The Guardian
• A Proposal to Address the Housing Crisis – Calculated Risk
• Fewer US Homes Are Insured Against Floods, Even as Risks Are Rising – Econofact
• U.S. housing market is on the ‘verge of a vicious cycle,’ which is ‘not good for America,’ Lennar Mortgage head warns. Politicians should ‘stop talking about affordability — and start delivering on affordability,’ Laura Escobar says – Market Watch
• The Role of the Recent Immigrant Surge in Housing Costs – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Hedge funds and housing – Politico
• Climate Change Should Make You Rethink Homeownership – New York Times
• Construction Job Openings Fall in September – NAHB
• Weaker Homeownership Data for Younger Households – NAHB
• A Wall Street Landlord Bought Your Neighbor’s House. It’s a Mixed Blessing. The zip codes where investors own a bigger share of homes have seen higher-than-average increases in both prices and rents – Wall Street Journal
• The Year’s Most Important Housing Vote. Proposition 33 would repeal all of California’s state-level limits on rent control. It’s passage could prove to be a disaster for housing supply in the Golden State. – Reason
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in September. Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Ties Highest Since 2011 – Calculated Risk
• Radical Plans for Public Housing Stir Up Hope, and Doubt. A plan would demolish aged housing projects in Chelsea and build new homes and thousands of additional apartments. It could be a game changer. – New York Times
• N.Y.C. Housing Voucher Program Is ‘Plagued With Problems,’ Audit Says. Thomas DiNapoli, the New York State comptroller, found that management lapses had caused delays for people who needed permanent housing. – New York Times
• Nightmare on Main Street: Unpacking 10 Scary Housing Trends – CoreLogic
• Zombie Foreclosures Remain Sparce Around U.S. in Fourth Quarter Amid Ongoing Strong Housing Market – ATTOM 

On Australia and New Zealand

• [Australia] Housing market on the cusp of another boom – Financial Review
• [Australia] Housing policy heats up – Grattan Institute
• [Australia] Sydney House Prices Drop for the First Time in Almost Two Years – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] New Zealand Housing Market Bogged Down by Flood of Listings. Prices seen recovering in 2025 if summer sales clear backlog. ‘Prices may bounce along the bottom for a few months yet’: ANZ – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Canada faces worsening home ownership crisis with stalled condo sales – Reuters
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s Rising Home Sales Still Face Economic Headwinds – Bloomberg
• [Ireland] Economic policy issues in the Irish housing market – IDEAS
• [Singapore] Singapore Home Prices Fall Less Than Expected; Rents Rebound – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Chancellor pledges extra £500m for social homes in budget. Treasury plans £5bn total investment in housing supply and reduction in discounts under right-to-buy scheme – The Guardian

On cross-country:

• Rising housing costs in the EU. Rising housing prices and rents are a big concern for many Europeans. – European Parliament
• Golden Passports and Visas: How Investment Migration Works – Council on Foreign Relations

Working papers and conferences:

• Event: 13th Annual Housing Center Conference on November 21 – AEI
• The housing consumption channel of mortgage demand – VoxEU
• Housing markets in Portugal and Spain: Fundamentals, overvaluation and shocks – Banco de Portugal
• Understanding Spatial House Price Dynamics in a Housing Boom – SSRN
• Prime Locations, Hidden Costs: Measuring the Impact of Amazon Distribution Centers on Housing Prices – SSRN 
• Do Housing Supply Skeptics Learn? Evidence from Economics and Advocacy Treatments – SSRN
• Monetary Policy and Racial Inequality in Housing Markets – SSRN
• The Racial Dynamics of U.S. Neighborhoods and Their Housing Prices from 1950 Through 1990 – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Why Mortgage Rates Went Up After the Fed’s Big Cut. What’s the link between benchmark rates and home loans? – Bloomberg
• Mortgage Rates Surge, Putting a Damper on Home Buying and Refinancing – Realtor.com
• Redfin Reports Rising Mortgage Rates Haven’t Yet Slowed Pending Sales – Redfin 
• Mortgage rates were supposed to come down. Instead, they’re rising. Here’s why – NPR
• Mortgage Rates Rise to 6.44%, Yet ‘Buyers May Be Feeling Ready To Act’ – Realtor.com 
• Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – October 2024 | Spotlight: First-Time Homebuyers – Freddie Mac
• Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey – Fannie Mae
• Home Sales on Track for Worst Year Since 1995. September sales fell 3.5% from a year earlier. In 2023, home sales hit their lowest point in 30 years. – Wall Street Journal
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in September – Calculated Risk
• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.354 million Annual Rate in September – Calculated Risk
• Single-Family Starts Trend Higher in September – NAHB
• Housing market shift: 6 major markets where home prices are actually falling. Some regional housing markets in states, such as Texas, Florida, and Louisiana, are experiencing mild home price corrections. – Fast Company
• America Is Primed for a Home-Renovation Resurgence. Falling interest rates are expected to make it easier to pay for big home-improvement projects – Wall Street Journal 
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.84 million SAAR in September, New Cycle Low. Median House Prices Increased 3.0% Year-over-Year – Calculated Risk
• Existing Home Sales Fall to 14-Year Low in September – NAHB
• The Multifamily Housing Conundrum – Atlanta Fed 

On the US—other developments:    

• How the next president can solve America’s housing crisis – Agglomerations
• Housing costs are rising everywhere — but especially in swing states. America’s housing affordability crisis is weighing heavily on the nation’s most sought-after voters in places like Wilmington, N.C., where home prices have risen 65 percent since 2019. – Washington Post
• As Harris Courts Sun Belt, Housing Costs Stand in Her Way. Shuttered factories and trade deals helped turn working-class Midwesterners against Democrats. Will the high cost of housing do the same in the Sun Belt? – New York Times
• Can Million-Dollar Apartments Solve California’s Housing Crisis? – Cato  
• Where do the estimates of a “housing shortage” come from? – Brookings
• High Prices, Low Supply: Three Swing State Cities Show the Housing Crunch. Middle-class housing pain is especially acute in Las Vegas, Philadelphia and Atlanta areas – Bloomberg
• POLITICO’s Affordable Housing: The New Agenda – Politico   
• Down Payments Are Dropping From Historic Highs—See How Much Homebuyers Can Save Today – Realtor.com
• California’s Unaffordable Housing Plans. Ballot measures would let localities impose rent control and evade property-tax limits. – Wall Street Journal
• California Home Sales Up 5% SA YoY in September – Calculated Risk
• How Developers Are Catering to Would-Be Homeowners With Rental Amenities. Families are choosing to rent for the foreseeable future  — some out of necessity, others for amenities. – New York Times
• Housing Cost Burdens Across Congressional Districts – NAHB
• Home Equity Gains Level Off as U.S. Housing Market Cools Down During Third Quarter of 2024 – ATTOM

On China:

• China Home Price Slump Drags On Despite Revival Efforts – Bloomberg
• China Ramps up Spending on Housing Projects to $562bn. Minister vows to expand its “white list” of housing projects for priority funding, while banks boost lending for developments to 4 trillion yuan ($562 billion) by year-end – Asia Financial
• China will win ‘tough battle’ to preserve property sector: housing minister. China’s housing ministry unveiled its plan to support the country’s property sector, with an expansion of funding to 4 trillion yuan – South China Morning Post
• China’s home prices see biggest drop in 9 years despite efforts to revive market. New home prices in September fell 6.1 per cent year on year in 70 mainland cities, widening from a 5.7 per cent slump in August – South China Morning Post
• China cuts mortgage rate in ‘encouraging sign’, but heavy lifting still needed. Five-year loan prime rate lowered from 3.85 per cent to 3.6 per cent, the People’s Bank of China said on Monday – South China Morning Post

On Australia and New Zealand

• [Australia] Making sense of housing policy proposals – CoreLogic
• [Australia] Why does big business want Australia to spend billions on not building houses? Housing developers have a keen financial interest in drip-feeding new homes into the market to maximise their returns – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australia is getting serious about the housing crisis. Young people, parents and grandparents should all have a stake in fixing arguably Australia’s No.1 economic and social challenge. – Financial Review

On other countries:  

• [Canada] ‘In the Red Pretty Deep’: Canadian Housing Investors Try to Sell to Stanch Losses. Outlook ‘not great’ for housing investors, RBC economist says. Rental rates have flatlined recently as immigration slows – Bloomberg
• [Malaysia] In a Malaysian Pop-Up City, Echoes of China’s Housing Crash. Forest City was an audacious $100 billion project by a top Chinese developer. Today, the project is a fraction of what had been planned and the developer is broke. – New York Times
• [United Kingdom] UK Housing Crisis Has a Back-to-the-Future Fix. New towns are the forgotten half of a social contract that helped to transform living conditions after the war. Labour’s plan to revive them is overdue. – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

• Housing & renting difficulties: what is the EU’s situation? – Eurostat

Working papers and conferences:

• Population, Prices, and Amenities. To make housing more affordable, we need to understand what makes some places hot, others not. – Philadelphia Fed
• The Measurement of Spatial Competition: Evidence from the Real Estate Market – CESifo
• Mortgage Lock-in, Lifecycle Migration, and the Welfare Effects of Housing Market Liquidity – Atlanta Fed
• Do Housing Investors Pass-through Changes in Their Interest Costs to Rents? – Reserve Bank of Australia
•  30+ year mortgages – are these the new norm? What does this mean for financial stability? – Bank of England
• Impact of Housing Demand Shocks on Home Appraisal Precision: Insights From The Shift To Work From Home During The COVID-19 Pandemic – SSRN
• Housing Prices and Marriage Delay: Evidence from China – SSRN  

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Home Price Growth Slows but Remains Robust. Latest FNM-HPI Reading Showed Year-over-Year Increase of 5.9 Percent in Q3 2024 – Fannie Mae
• House Prices to Income. New Data for 2023 National Average Wage Index Released This Morning – Calculated Risk
• Could Legalizing Mid-Rise Single-Stair Housing Expand and Improve Housing Supply? – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• 2023 Home Improvement Loan Applications: A State- and County-Level Analysis – NAHB
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2024 – Calculated Risk
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September – Calculated Risk
• Why some renters aren’t in a hurry to buy homes – Axios
• The GSE Experiment Has Failed–Congress Should End It. The federal government’s dominance in the housing finance market—both before and throughout the GSE conservatorships—has stifled private competition and worsened Americans’ financial condition, but it has done virtually nothing to increase the homeownership rate. – Cato
• High Home Prices Force Builders to Offer Mortgage Buydowns—and More. House hunters might see further price reductions – Wall Street Journal
• The Weird Reason Rents Are Rising in the Midwest—but Falling Down South – Realtor.com
• Single-Family Permits Higher in August 2024 – NAHB 
• Declines for Residential Construction Loans – NAHB 
• U.S. Rents Declining, but Not in the Midwest – Wall Street Journal
• Home Seller Profit Margins Drop Slightly Across U.S. as Housing Market Slows During Third Quarter – ATTOM  

On the US—other developments:    

• How would Harris build 3 million new housing units? – New York Times
• Two presidential candidates agree on something: the source of the housing crisis. The battle over investment underscores a broader political dynamic at play, with both parties casting around for solutions to the high cost of housing. – Politico
• Trump, Republicans link immigrants to high US housing prices, researchers disagree – Reuters
• Trump Blames Immigrant Surge for Housing Crisis. Most Economists Disagree. The former president often implies that deportations will bring down housing costs. Reality is more complicated. – New York Times
• The Week in Review. Week of Oct 7 — Buyers brighten, inflation eases – Home Economics
• Why the South and West Can’t Seem To Crack the List of America’s Hottest Housing Markets – Realtor.com
• The Easiest Way To Make Homes More Affordable – Real Estate Decoded
• The Little-Known Factor Driving up Housing Costs: Dirty Money. Dirty money is a major but little-recognized contributor to our housing affordability crisis. – Politico
• Why America’s Housing Shortage Is So Hard to Fix – Bloomberg
• How Climate Disasters Are Making Mobile Homes a Huge Risk. Millions of Americans, many poor and vulnerable, live in mobile and manufactured homes. When catastrophe strikes, they’re often on their own. – New York Times 
• Hispanic homeowners narrow home value gap to smallest margin on record – Zillow
• Property Taxes by State – 2023 – NAHB
• 10 Major Housing Stories from the Latest ACS Data – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• How will first-time homebuyer assistance affect the housing markets? – Brookings
• Introducing the Atlanta Fed’s Home Ownership Affordability Monitor (HOAM) 2.0 – Atlanta Fed
• Builder Confidence Edges Higher Despite Affordability Headwinds – NAHB
• Low home turnover rate, charted – Axios

On China:

• China’s property crisis claims more victims: companies. Unsold homes are contributing to a balance-sheet recession – The Economist
• Chinese vice-premier urges more ‘white list’ lending to stabilise housing market. He Lifeng calls for efforts to help China beat property sector slump, which has been a stumbling block to economic recovery – South China Morning Post
• Key Takeaways as China Outlines Plans to Revive Economy, End Housing Slump. China will act to help local governments address “hidden debt”. Finance Minister says China can borrow more, increase deficit – Bloomberg
• Key Takeaways from China’s Housing Ministry Briefing – Bloomberg
• China to boost lending for stalled property projects to $560bn. Beijing is trying to restore confidence in economy amid prolonged real estate slowdown – FT
• China goes all out to stabilise vital property sector: as it happened. Housing minister held a briefing along with officials from the central bank, Ministry of Finance and National Financial Regulatory Administration – South China Morning Post
• China to almost double support for unfinished housing projects – AFP
• China boosts funds for housing projects to support embattled sector – Reuters  

On other countries:  

• [Argentina] Argentina Ended Rent Control. Guess What Happened Next. A free market for housing is one that benefits both renters and landlords. – Reason
• [Australia] Australia’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong Relaxes Mortgage Rules to Bolster Property Market. Loan-to-value ratio for all residential properties set at 70%. Interest rate cuts have not led to property market rebound – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong]Hong Kong leader announces measures to address housing crisis in annual policy address – CNBC
• [Hungary]Hungary seeks housing boost from pensions ahead of 2026 election – Reuters
• [Hungary]Hungary Wants Banks to ‘Voluntarily’ Agree to 5% Mortgage Cap – Bloomberg
• [India]India’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Italy] Italy’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Singapore] Singapore Home Sales See Minor Recovery After US Rate Cuts. Developers sold 401 private units in city-state in September. The number of apartments transacted was highest since July – Bloomberg
• [South Korea] Cooler Home Prices in Seoul Support Bank of Korea’s Policy Pivot. September home price data show growth momentum snapped. BOK ties pace of easing to household debt driven by properties – Bloomberg
• [Spain] Spain’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] Cheapest UK mortgage deals hit by rise in government borrowing costs. Barclays pulls best-priced home loan rate with other lenders set to follow suit – FT
• [United Kingdom] Low mortgage rates are no panacea for first-time buyers. With the Bank of England’s lending criteria, they’re likely to achieve little – FT
• [United Kingdom] Can software help ease Britain’s housing crisis? Some tech utopians think so – The Economist

On cross-country:

• Taming the World’s Affordable Housing Crisis – Insead
• The EU’s plan to make housing more affordable. The European Commission has a plan to tackle the housing squeeze even as it acknowledges that its powers are limited. – Politico
• Why does the Anglosphere Suck at Housing? Speaking English is part of the problem – Home Economics
• Global house price growth accelerates. House prices across our 56-country basket rose by 3.3% in the 12 months to the end of June, with prices increasing by 1.9% over the past three months alone – Knight Frank

Working papers and conferences:

• Monetary policy transmission: why consumers’ housing situations matter. – European Central Bank
• Long-term fixed-rate mortgages through an international lens: could they lead to higher home ownership? – Bank of England
• House Price Experiences and Consumer Spending – SSRN
• Housing Policy, Homeownership, and Inequality – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Why have mortgage rates fallen, and where are they headed? – Brookings
• US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Climbs by Most in More Than a Year – Bloomberg
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• Why Mortgage Rates Haven’t Fallen Since the Fed Cut. Would-be home buyers anticipating more relief from the Fed might be waiting a while – Wall Street Journal
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September. Significant Regional Differences for Active Inventory – Calculated Risk
• NYC Apartment Renters Get a Break But Bargains Remain Elusive. Manhattan median is $200 below record after string of declines. Leases jump, signaling the market’s still fiercely competitive – Bloomberg
• Remodeling Market Sentiment Dips in Third Quarter – NAHB
• Moody’s: Apartment Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q3; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High – Calculated Risk
• Housing Confidence Inches Higher Amid Record-High Optimism Toward Mortgage Rates. Renter Sentiment Also Up, Including Share Expecting Rates to Fall – Fannie Mae
• Mortgage rates are rising again. An uptick in rates slowed total loan applications after several months of growth – Quartz
• Despite Housing Shortage, America Has 5.6 Million Vacant Homes—What Gives? – Realtor.com  

On the US—other developments:    

• Removing Barriers to Abundant, Affordable Housing. InsideSources published an op-ed from Kevin DeGood about the role that state and local governments play in America’s housing affordability crisis. – Center for American Progress
• Americans Recognize Housing Affordability Crisis, Support New Policies To Fix the Market and Build More Homes. New survey data show housing affordability is a salient national issue. – Center for American Progress
• Contra J.D. Vance and Tim Walz, Housing Should Be a ‘Commodity’. Housing is unaffordable because regulations have prevented its commodification. – Reason
• Why YIMBYs like Kamala Harris – Axios  
• The link between immigration and housing costs isn’t as obvious as it seems – Axios
• Gavin Newsom’s blunt instrument on housing – Politico 
• The Week in Review. Week of Sept 30th — Payrolls pop – Home Economics
• San Francisco’s mayoral election defined by housing crisis and shift to right – Reuters
• Housing costs are rising. How do Trump and Harris plan to tackle them? – NPR
• Manufactured Homes: Shipments, Prices, and Characteristics in 2023 – NAHB
• ICE Mortgage Monitor: Insurance Costs “Spike”, Especially in Florida – Calculated Risk
• See Where the Housing Market Could Change the Most as Mortgage Rates Drop – Realtor.com
• Soaring Insurance Costs Are Menacing Owners of Big Buildings, Too. Struggling landlords and developers are seeking leeway on coverage from their lenders — mostly in vain. – New York Times
• State of Local Homeownership Prior to the Election – NAHB 

On Australia and New Zealand

• [Australia] Downsizing How Australia’s housing crisis opens door for eager Asian investors. The factors in Australia’s affordability crisis can be seen elsewhere in Asia, making it important for investors not to overlook their own markets – South China Morning Post
• [New Zealand] Difficult mortgage decisions for borrowers likely to continue – CoreLogic

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Buying a home gets a tad more affordable as rates drop – RBC
• [Canada] Can private real estate help lead Canada out of the housing crisis? – Bloomberg
• [Korea] Korea Touts Progress in Cooling Real Estate Ahead of BOK Meeting. Finance Ministry comments just days before Bank of Korea meets. BOK has delayed cutting interest rates on concerns about debt – Bloomberg
• [Korea] Cooling in Seoul’s Apartment Market Pauses Ahead of BOK Meeting. High-frequency data show top properties demand still strong. Government continues to pledge to rein in household debt – Bloomberg
• [Kuwait] Why Housing Prices in Kuwait Keep Going Up? Unveiling the Drivers Behind the Crisis – LSE
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong property prices have ‘bottomed out’ and will ‘rebound slowly’, sector leader says. Recent strength in stock market can help drive economic recovery and boost property sector, head of developers’ association says – South China Morning Post
• [United Kingdom] UK property market strengthens, pressure on renters intensifies, RICS says – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rising for first time in two years – Yahoo Finance