The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Nasser Khiabani  and Solaleh Tavassoli:

“This study reviews the evolution of national and regional housing models that developed and received much attention in the housing economics literature. From this point of view, first, we focus our attention on the econometric modeling of national housing markets and discuss their limitations in twofold: inferring individual-level relations from aggregate-level data or aggregate shocks, and assuming spatial homogeneity in all regions. These two problems will be addressed precisely in the newly developed regional housing market models by identifying the sources of cross-sectoral dependence, namely, spatial and temporal dependence. Spatial dependence refers to how spatial factors influence economic processes. It is measured through a spatial weighting matrix. Cross-sectional dependence stemming from common factors is attributed to economy-wide shocks that affect all individuals with different intensities coming from different macro shocks, such as interest rates, oil prices, and technology shocks.”

From a paper by David M. Brickman:

“Over the past four decades, the multifamily housing market has grown and evolved significantly to become a much more prominent part of the US housing landscape. Since 1990, the total value of the multifamily housing stock has grown more than tenfold, from less than $600 million to more than $6
billion today, as both the number and value of multifamily housing units have steadily increased. Although a broad range of macroeconomic and demographic factors have contributed to this growth, the primary catalyst has been the establishment of well-functioning multifamily capital markets, defined by large liquid debt and equity markets and a largely unconstrained private rental market. Against this backdrop, multifamily housing has become a standout among commercial real estate in terms of capital flows and performance while disproportionately contributing to the nation’s supply of newly constructed housing at this moment of intense shortages and affordability challenges.

Given the success of the modern multifamily capital and housing markets, there is value in understanding their development to identify market areas in need of additional investment and to inform regional and global markets elsewhere. To that end, this brief identifies and examines key moments in the evolution of multifamily debt and equity flows from the late 1980s through today and their impact on capitalization rates, property values, housing supply, rental rates, and rent growth. The brief concludes with a discussion of policy implications.”

Continue reading here.

On cross-country:

• Housing in Europe – 2024 edition – Eurostat
• Global Housing and Mortgage Outlook 2025 – Fitch Ratings

Working papers and conferences:

• Monetary policy and housing markets: insights using a novel measure of housing supply elasticity – BIS
• Assessing expectations of European house prices – ESRI
• Assessing Assessors – NBER
• The Forces Keeping Home Prices High. Cameron Murray on housing market equilibria – Home Economics

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Realtor.com 2025 Housing Forecast – Realtor.com
• Where home prices are expected to go in 2025, predicted by real estate data giant. Given the recent jump in inventory, CoreLogic now has lower expectations for national home price growth in 2025. – Fast Company
• How 2024’s Housing Market Sets the Stage for 2025 – CoreLogic
• House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: Third Quarter 2024 – NAHB
• Housing Markets Facing Greater Risk of Decline Concentrated in California, New Jersey, Illinois, and Florida – ATTOM
• Top 10 Most Vulnerable U.S. Housing Markets in Q3 2024 – ATTOM
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• Home Price Expectations Survey – Fannie Mae
• Expert Panel Upwardly Revises Home Price Growth Outlook, Still Expects Deceleration in 2025 and 2026. Panel Also Forecasts Stagnant Home Sales and Only Modestly Lower Mortgage Rates – Fannie Mae
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November. Another Year-over-year Sales Gain in November – Calculated Risk
• Mortgage Rates Rise in November Amid Post-Election Market Volatility – NAHB
• Wall Street Is Betting Billions on Rental Homes as Ownership Slips Out of Reach. Build-to-rent homes offer upscale amenities and desirable locations – Wall Street Journal
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 – Calculated Risk
• What Determines the Rate on a 30-Year Mortgage? – Fannie Mae

On the US—other developments:    

• A ‘Silver Tsunami’ Won’t Solve Housing Affordability Challenges – Zillow
• Trump Policies 2.0: What Can State, Local Governments Expect? – CoreLogic
• December CPI Blog: Updating our Housing Model – The White House
• November’s Housing Market Crawled to Its Slowest Pace in 5 Years—Even as Prices Fell and Housing Stock Jumped – Realtor.com
• New York City Approves a Plan to Create 80,000 New Homes. The City Council passed a major housing plan known as “City of Yes.” Experts and elected officials say it is only a first step to address the housing crisis. – New York Times  
• The Insurance Crisis Continues to Weigh on Homeowners – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• How Bob Dylan, Housing Prices, and Harvard show that Networks Matter. Dylan’s journey from unknown to icon illuminates a broader truth about success: networks matter, and access to them is becoming increasingly restricted. – The Studies Show
• Consumer Housing Sentiment Up Significantly Year over Year. Jump in Confidence Driven Largely by Increased Optimism that Mortgage Rates Will Fall – Fannie Mae
• Questioning the Housing Crisis: Introduction to a Series – Cato Institute
• Housing Availability and Affordability: Evidence That the United States Is Not in a Crisis. During the past few years many groups have suggested that the United States is experiencing a housing crisis, one marked by a supply deficit and affordability problems. – Cato Institute
• How big is the U.S. housing shortage? – NPR
• Mortgage Regulators Are Shrugging Off Climate Risk. It Could Cost Taxpayers Billions. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which backstop most U.S. mortgages, know floods and fires are a growing problem. But little action has been taken. – New York Times
• Foreclosure Filings Ease Nationwide in November 2024 Amid Seasonal Influences – ATTOM
• Why Housing Is a Frontline Defense Against Climate Change – Time
• Inflation Remains Sticky Despite Easing Housing Costs – NAHB
• Can the U.S. Climb Out of Its ‘Unprecedented’ Housing Crisis? The 2024 housing market was the slowest in decades. Next year’s might not be much better. It may come down to how many new homes can be built. – New York Times 
• Wall Street Is Betting Billions on Rental Homes as Ownership Slips Out of Reach. Build-to-rent homes offer upscale amenities and desirable locations – Wall Street Journal
• The Housing Industry Never Recovered From the Great Recession. A decade of depression in construction led to a concentrated, sclerotic industry. – The American Prospect

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] How the housing crisis is reshaping Australia – The Guardian
• [Australia] Forced to move by the Australian housing crisis: three-hour commutes and ‘never mind seeing your family’ – The Guardian
• [New Zealand] An American-Style Housing Crisis in New Zealand. What the United States can learn from the Pacific nation – The Atlantic

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Why were these mortgage borrowers left out of the latest stress-test change? – The Globe and Mail
• [Ireland] Irish House Prices Are Overvalued by Up to 10%, Says ESRI. Housing supply constraints has led to an increase in prices. Report says property market at risk of a ‘painful correction’ – Bloomberg
• [Ireland] ESRI again highlights regulator’s role in fanning house prices. Think-tank not backing off previous suggestion that loosening mortgage rules boosted the property market – The Irish Times
• [Italy] Renters in Rome struggle as coming Holy Year dries up housing market – Reuters
• [Korea] The Bank of Korea Moves Beyond Monetary Policy. Earlier this year, South Korea’s central bank worked with government ministries to devise macroprudential measures to stabilize the country’s housing market. This shows that monetary policymakers can, and perhaps should, play a critical role in tackling structural challenges that could profoundly affect future prosperity. – Project Syndicate
• [Portugal] Portugal’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [South Africa] South Africa’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [Spain] El precio de la vivienda no cede y sube otro 8,1% en el tercer trimestre, su mayor repunte en dos años y medio. Los pisos a estrenar se encarecen casi un 10% en un año, según el Instituto Nacional de Estadística. Los desahucios sobre residencia habitual caen más de un 20% respecto al segundo trimester – El Pais
• [Switzerland] Switzerland Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] Prioritise people’s needs ‘over newts’ in housing policy, says Angela Rayner. Housing secretary says wildlife should be protected but not at the expense of building the homes the country needs – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Jump Most in Over Two Years, Halifax Says. Average prices rise 1.3% in November to hit new record high. Strong labor market and BOE interest-rate cut support market – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] England house prices ‘affordable’ only for richest 10% in 2022-23. Office for National Statistics data highlights property market pressures – FT 

From a paper by Saliu, Mojeed Olanrewaju and Akode, Thomas Ojo:

“This study examines the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals on the House Prices in twelve selected African countries, using time series data spanning from 2000 to 2020. The study employs Westerlund Error Correction Based Panel Cointegration test to examine the impact of some domestic (RINTR, RGDPGR, EXR, SP) and foreign (USRINTR, WRGDPGR, WOP) macroeconomic fundamentals on House Price Index. Findings from the study reveal that there is a long-run relationship between the House Price Index and The macroeconomic fundamentals. The research work also confirms that foreign macroeconomic fundamentals are better determinants of House Price than the domestic macroeconomic fundamentals in the selected African countries during the period under review.”

IMF’s F&D Magazine on The Economics of Housing:

• Housing’s Unique Role in Lives and Economies Demands Greater Understanding. Affordability and other complex housing issues challenging governments can be better revealed in broader economic analysis – IMF Blog
• Walkways, Not Walls. There are benefits to better connecting macroeconomics with real estate economics – F&D
• The Housing Affordability Crunch. A newly developed dataset shows how the pandemic’s aftermath ushered in the worst housing affordability crisis in more than a decade – F&D
• Housing Markets and Monetary Policy. Comprehensive, country-specific understanding of housing and mortgage markets can help calibrate monetary policy – F&D
• The True Cost of Living. Sharply higher borrowing costs, especially for housing, fueled a disconnect between inflation statistics and consumer sentiment – F&D
• How To Spot Housing Bubbles. Early detection and mitigation can help deflate asset bubbles before they burst – F&D
• China’s Real Estate Challenge. Sliding property prices may presage a painful economic adjustment – F&D
• Are Housing Markets Broken? Many people aspire to own their own home, but it’s becoming increasingly unaffordable – F&D
• Falling Out of Favor. Some countries are turning against foreign buyers as soaring property prices become political – F&D
• São Paulo Reclaims Its Center. Brazil’s megalopolis combines federal and municipal programs to retrofit buildings in the downtown area – F&D
• Housing Africa’s Growing Population. Deeper understanding of informality and better use of technology can build more sustainable housing markets – F&D
• Housing Costs Mount. A look at rising housing cost trend – F&D
• Hidden Fortunes. How dirty money distorts real estate markets – F&D

Working papers and conferences:

• Macroprudential Policy and Capital Flows – CEPR
• Climate change’s impact on real estate prices in Chile – Central Bank of Chile
• From Novelty to Norm: Uncovering the Drivers of Virtual Tour Effectiveness in Real Estate Sales – NBER
• CFP: Real Estate Economics Special Issue on Housing and Housing Policy – The American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Housing Forecast 2025: Mortgage Rates To Stay Above 6% as Home Prices Grow – Realtor.com
• Trump may renew a housing fight that could rattle mortgage rates – CNN
• US Mortgage Rates Decline to 6.69%, Lowest Since Mid-October – Bloomberg
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in October; Up 3.7% Year-over-year. 18 of the 35 cities with largest price declines are in Florida! – Calculated Risk
• US Home Price Insights – December 2024 – CoreLogic
• CoreLogic: Annual Home Price Growth Stalls in October – CoreLogic
• Can rent control have adverse effects on housing affordability? – Econofact
• Giant homebuilders are taking over the housing market—just look at Lennar. Giant homebuilder Lennar recently announced it is acquiring competitor Rausch Coleman Homes, accelerating a housing market trend. – Fast Company
• New York City Rental Report October 2024: What Home Can a Manhattan Renter Afford Across the U.S.? – Realtor.com
• Pro Take: A Trump Deportation Plan Could Have Mixed Impact on Still-Hot Housing Inflation. Construction worker shortages and falling numbers of renters in some areas could both influence housing prices – Wall Street Journal
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.4% Below 2022 Peak. Price-to-rent index is 8.1% below 2022 peak – Calculated Risk
• Private Residential Construction Spending Rises in October – NAHB
• These local housing markets are shifting—just look at inventory. Some housing markets in the Southwest and Southeast are weakening, while others in the Midwest, Northeast, and Southern California remain tight. – Fast Company
• Construction Labor Market Continues to Ease – NAHB
• Where Residential Construction Thrives: Metro Area Hotspots for Jobs and Businesses – NAHB

On the US—other developments:    

• Home builders are cheering Trump’s return to the White House. Companies are eager for lighter regulations. But they also could see their industry strained by tariffs and immigration changes. – Washington Post
• Donald Trump’s Second Term Could Bring ‘Significant Shifts’ to the Housing Market – Realtor.com
• This Old House? Home Buyers’ Best Deals Are on Builders’ Lots. The premium that buyers usually have to pay for a brand-new house is disappearing – Wall Street Journal
• Housing Becoming Unaffordable for First-Time Homebuyers – Apollo Academy
• The Unsung Power Players of Real Estate: How Gen X Carves Up a Significant Slice of the Market – Realtor.com
• Construction Industry Braces for One-Two Punch: Tariffs and Deportations. Trump’s immigration and trade policies put home builders in a vulnerable position – Wall Street Journal
• Housing Cost Burdens Climb to Record Levels (Again) in 2023 – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• The Mysteries of Cities and Economic Growth – AEI

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] An Overview Of Australia’s Housing Market And Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities – S&P Global
• [Australia] Tight supply and lower interest rates to lift Australia home prices – Reuters poll – Reuters
• [Australia] How far house prices have soared above fair value – The Sydney Morning Herald
• [Australia] Australian Home Prices Rise at Weakest Pace in Almost Two Years – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Rate cuts won’t stimulate a big upswing in house prices: CoreLogic – Financial Review
• [Australia] Aussie capital cities where house prices are falling and booming: ‘Wealth effect’ – Yahoo Finance
• [Australia] Australia’s housing market loses steam with prices falling in Sydney and Melbourne. More houses for sale in country’s two biggest cities in November than there were at this time of year since 2018 – The Guardian
• [Australia] Why it’s the least worst time to buy a home in three years – The Sydney Morning Herald
• [Australia] How Much Further Will Sydney and Melbourne House Prices Fall? – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Fell a Ninth Straight Month in November – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] New Zealand home prices to rise modestly in coming two years: Reuters poll – Reuters

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Toronto Housing Sales Climb With Buyers Flocking Back to Market. Benchmark price measure increased for a second-straight month. Real estate board president says stage is set for recovery – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Home builders are only part of the solution to the housing crisis – The Globe and Mail
• [Denmark] Why being close to a cycle network can boost house prices – The Conversation
• [France] Paris joins clampdown on holiday apartment rentals, blamed for housing shortage. French capital takes advantage of new law to curb apartment rentals to tourists. Officials say practice limits housing supply for residents – South China Morning Post
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s property slump may be terminal. Demographics and geopolitics will make a recovery harder – The Economist
• [Ireland] Paul McNeive: Has increased housing supply come in time to save the Government? – Irish Independent
• [Ireland] ‘Nothing can be built’: Northern Ireland sewage crisis hits housing construction. Property prices surge as 19,000 homes are left on hold due to lack of wastewater services – FT
• [Norway] Norway Cuts Home Loan Equity Need to Help First-Time Buyers – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] House prices and sales across UK expected to rise in early 2025. Buyers seeking to benefit from expiring tax breaks and pent-up demand predicted to drive up costs, according to Zoopla report – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK Home Prices Rise by Most Since March 2022, Lender Says. Average 1.2% price in November far exceeded expectations. Wage gains helping to support buyer interest, Nationwide says – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise at fastest rate in nearly two years. Nationwide reports surprise growth despite near-record prices straining affordability – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK Housebuilding Falls Most in Five Months in Wake of Budget – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Why London’s property market is stagnating. The capital is stuck in a rut; digging itself out is not going to be easy — or cheap – FT