Showing posts with label Global Housing Watch.   Show all posts

Housing View – January 19, 2024

On cross-country:

  • The housing crisis is still being underplayed. Young adults are being robbed of the milestones that marked the lives of previous generations – FT


Working papers and conferences:

  • Why Has Construction Productivity Stagnated? The Role of Land-Use Regulation – SSRN
  • The economic effects of real estate investors – Real Estate Economics
  • Monetary policy and housing market cycles – Macroeconomic Dynamics
  • Regional House Price Cohesion in the UK: Recent Trends and Covid – SSRN
  • Roof or Real Estate? An Agent-Based Model Of Housing Affordability in the Netherlands – SSRN
  • Housing Costs, College Enrollment, and Student Mobility – SSRN
  • Discrimination in the Austrian Rental Housing Market: The Effect of Information Concerning First and Second Generation Immigrant Status – SSRN
  • Housing Unaffordability in Italy: Recognising the Housing Problem Dispelling Myths – SSRN


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • U.S. 30-year mortgage predominance doesn’t seem to delay impact of Fed rate hikes – Dallas Fed
  • Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP – Calculated Risk
  • Inside a Plan to Save Homeowners Hundreds of Dollars Closing Their Mortgages. Little-known alternative to title insurance gains support from Fannie Mae – Wall Street Journal
  • Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December. The Lowest Annual Sales Rates since 1995 – Calculated Risk
  • Hoping To Buy a Home in 2024? Here’s Where Prices Have Been Rising—and Falling—the Most – Realtor.com
  • Single Family Starts Up Year-over-year in December; Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction – Calculated Risk


On the US—other developments:    

  • Housing reform should actually add housing. Affordable-only upzonings are a big political struggle for minimal gain – Slow Boring
  • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024 – Calculated Risk
  • 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December. It appears annual sales for 2023 will be at the lowest level since 1995 – Calculated Risk
  • 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December. Annual sales for 2023 will be at the lowest level since 1995 – Calculated Risk
  • To Ease Housing Crunch, Theme Parks Are Becoming Homebuilders. Orlando, Florida, is on the front line of an industry trend as major employers like Universal and Disney look to close the area’s workforce housing gap. – Bloomberg
  • Housing Vouchers Won’t Solve America’s Homelessness Crisis – Jacobin
  • Not Even Molten Lava Can Cool This Hot Housing Market. The eastern section of Hawaii’s Big Island continues to attract home buyers searching for a cheap piece of paradise – Wall Street Journal


On China:

  • China Housing Slump to Continue Into 2025, Says Ex-PBOC Official. Home sales will fall further this year and next, Sheng says. Green shoots emerged in November and December, he adds – Bloomberg
  • China’s Property Market May Keep Struggling Despite Stimulus. Property prices have extended their decline in the wake of property stimulus measures – Wall Street Journal


On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Neither a pandemic nor interest rate rises: can anything dent the Australian housing market? The entire political focus over the past 40 years has been to keep house prices from falling, or even abating – The Guardian
  • [Canada] Canada, facing housing shortage, to consider cap on international students – Reuters
  • [Canada] Canadian home sales jumped 9% in December, but prices continued to fall – The Globe and Mail
  • [Ireland] ‘The Social Contract Has Been Completely Ruptured’: Ireland’s Housing Crisis. Soaring rents have left many struggling to afford homes in Dublin and have created a generational divide. Two-thirds of younger adults in the city live with their parents. – New York Times
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Rise for Third Month, CoreLogic Says. Property value gains in 2024 may undershoot expectations. Outlook hinges on whether mortgage interest rates move lower – Bloomberg
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand Houses Are Selling Faster as Buyers Return to the Market. Median time to sell in December was lowest since March 2022. House prices post first annual gain in 18 months, REINZ says – Bloomberg
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices unchanged, activity improving -REINZ – Reuters
  • [United Arab Emirates] Dubai Sales of $25 Million Homes Double as Global Elite Move In. Wealthy buyers spent $2.27 billion on luxury homes last year. Most expensive transaction was for a $136 million apartment – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Why is it still so hard to build new homes in England? Politicians agree that shaking up the planning system is vital to the British economy, but Nimby-ism is stubbornly resilient – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Britain’s Biggest Mortgage Lender Is Watching for the Return of Global Inflation Pressures – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall at fastest pace in more than a decade. ONS data shows biggest drop in London and reflects impact of high interest rates on property market – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK Housing Market Enters 2024 With Momentum Building, Agents Say. RICS survey finds sales picking up, pressure on prices easing. Buyer demand being boosted by decline in mortgage costs – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

  • The housing crisis is still being underplayed. Young adults are being robbed of the milestones that marked the lives of previous generations – FT

Working papers and conferences:

  • Why Has Construction Productivity Stagnated? The Role of Land-Use Regulation – SSRN
  • The economic effects of real estate investors – Real Estate Economics
  • Monetary policy and housing market cycles – Macroeconomic Dynamics
  • Regional House Price Cohesion in the UK: Recent Trends and Covid – SSRN
  • Roof or Real Estate?

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – January 12, 2024

On cross-country:

  • Housing Affordability Remains Stretched Amid Higher Interest Rate Environment. Prospective home buyers face high prices and elevated borrowing costs, while homeowners refrain from listing their properties – IMF
  • House prices and rents increased between Q2 and Q3 2023 – Eurostat
  • Letter: Why housing is such a tricky emissions reduction target – FT
  • Europe’s property boom lowered inequality, ECB saysReuters


Working papers and conferences:

  • Haste or Waste? The Role of Presale in Residential Housing – NBER
  • Refinancing Frictions, Mortgage Pricing and Redistribution – NBER
  • Energy Hogs and Energy Angels: What Does Residential Electricity Usage Really Tell Us About Profligate Consumption? – NBER
  • Neighborhood Effects of Buy-to-Rent and Build-To Rent Public Housing – SSRN
  • Does Homeownership Preserve Wealth for Low- Income and Minority Senior Households? – SSRN


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Why Buffalo will be 2024’s Hottest Market. Zillow’s annual predictions for the hottest housing markets of the year. Factors include expected home value growth, projected change in owner-occupied households and job growth compared to new construction. – Zillow
  • Moody’s: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate in “Uncharted Territory” at Record High. Apartment Net Absorption “Plummeted” in Q4 – Calculated Risk
  • US Home Price Insights – January 2024 – CoreLogic
  • Why This Is a Good Year to Be a Renter, in Three Charts. Renters have more options and negotiating power than a year ago – Wall Street Journal
  • US home prices jump another 5% on tumbling mortgage rates and tight supply – Business Insider


On the US—other developments:    

  • Buying Home and Auto Insurance Used to Be Routine. It’s Becoming a Nightmare. Huge losses from national disasters prompt industry to jack up prices and pull back from some markets; ‘worst possible scenario’ for consumers – Wall Street Journal
  • US homebuyer confidence up in December; more see loan rates falling – Reuters
  • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December. Early Reports Suggest Sales in December were Down Slightly Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
  • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024 – Calculated Risk


On other countries:  

  • [Canada] Canada Offers Cities Money to Spur Home Building. Effort to reshape municipal zoning comes amid citizen anger over low housing inventory, elevated rents – Wall Street Journal
  • [Canada] Canadians Give Trudeau Low Marks for Housing Affordability in Poll. Ontario, West are more negative than Quebec, Atlantic region. Government has tried to accelerate building through incentives – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Canadian seniors are selling their homes later in life. What will this mean for the housing market? – Canada Mortgage Trends
  • [Denmark] Denmark’s housing market conditions worsening – Global Property Guide
  • [France] France’s housing market momentum stalls – Global Property Guide
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s housing market remains depressed – Global Property Guide
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand Home-Building Costs Rise at Slowest Pace Since 2016 – Bloomberg
  • [Singapore] Singapore’s house prices still increasing, despite falling demand – Global Property Guide
  • [South Korea] South Korea president vows to ease regulations to boost home supplies – Reuters
  • [Thailand] Thailand’s house prices rising modestly, buoyed by recovering demand – Global Property Guide
  • [United Kingdom] What Does 2024 Hold for UK House Prices? Given where mortgage rates are heading, a tepid recovery looks to be on the cards. – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Britain’s housing market may be ‘past peak pain’ but what will 2024 bring? Second year of falling prices expected though recovery is likely in the second half as interest rates come down – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise for third consecutive month, Halifax data shows. Supply shortage pushes property valuations to highest level since last March – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Defy Gloom With Gain in 2023, Halifax Says. Prices have stagnated in 2023 instead of plunging 10%. Outlook for a more modest decline this year or even gains – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Spending on affordable housing in England to be slashed in 2024. Planned investment by housing associations drops due to budget pressures – FT
  • [United Kingdom] The reasons for the housing crisis go beyond the green belt. Readers respond to the building design tsar’s comments on housebuilding – The Guardian
  •  [United Kingdom] UK Housing Market Gloom Is Overdone — Again. Britain’s home values will prove resilient this year. – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

  • Housing Affordability Remains Stretched Amid Higher Interest Rate Environment. Prospective home buyers face high prices and elevated borrowing costs, while homeowners refrain from listing their properties – IMF
  • House prices and rents increased between Q2 and Q3 2023 – Eurostat
  • Letter: Why housing is such a tricky emissions reduction target – FT
  • Europe’s property boom lowered inequality, ECB saysReuters

Working papers and conferences:

  • Haste or Waste?

Read the full article…

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – January 5, 2024

Working papers and conferences:

  • Housing Speculation, GSEs, and Credit Market Spillovers – Philadelphia Fed
  • What Do We Learn from Mobile Phone Location Data about Mobility and Housing During Covid-19 – SSRN
  • Identifying the Effects of Financial and Housing Shocks on Economic Activity: A Medium-Run SVAR Perspective – SSRN
  • Employment Fluctuations, Real Estate Prices, and Property Taxes – SSRN
  • Government-Made House Price Bubbles? Austerity, Homeownership, Rental, and Credit Liberalization Policies and the “Irrational Exuberance” on Housing Markets – SSRN


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Question #9 for 2024: What will happen with house prices in 2024? – Calculated Risk
  • The Decline and Fall of the Federal Home Loan Banks – Cato Institute
  • The Hidden Force Pushing Mortgage Rates Down. The differential between 30-year mortgage rates and benchmark Treasury yields has been shrinking for eight straight weeks – Wall Street Journal
  • Mortgage Rates Could Drop in 2024—But How Far? Hoping to buy a home in the new year? This is what you can expect for mortgage rates in 2024 – Wall Street Journal
  • Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year ? – Calculated Risk


On the US—other developments:    

  • Chill in the Housing Market Seeps Into Other Industries. The slowdown in the residential real estate market, a crucial cog in the American economy, is threatening sectors like home improvement and storage. – The New York Times
  • Long-Distance Movers Targeting Less Competitive, Less Expensive Housing Markets – Zillow
  • The Sad Irony of “Not In My Backyard” (NIMBY) – American Institute for Economic Research
  • When Will New York Solve Its Housing Crisis? Probably Not This Year. As the state’s legislative session gets underway, the politicians who could fix the problem face big hurdles. – New York Times
  • Twin Cities region meets ambitious housing goals for second year but has much work left to do. With fresh data from 2022, the Regional Housing Affordability Dashboard depicts trends in the Twin Cities regional housing market – Minneapolis Fed 
  • The Fed and the U.S. housing crunch – Politico
  • What is behind housing sentiment? – Finance Research Letters
  • How much will Residential investment change in 2024? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2024? – Calculated Risk
  • Zillow’s Chief Economist’s 2024 Housing Market Resolutions. Zillow Chief Economist Skylar Olsen shares her wish list for a healthier housing market in 2024 – Zillow


On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Australia’s property market faces fresh peaks and troughs with slowing prices and interest rates tipped to drop. Price trends are unlikely to be straightforward in 2024, even if the RBA’s next move is a rate reduction – The Guardian
  • [Australia] Australian Home-Price Growth Slows Further as Sydney Cools. Cost of living pressures are taking heat out of housing market. RBA rate cut in 2024 could help spur demand, CoreLogic says – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Toronto Home Sales Surge Most in Eight Months With Prices Falling. Borrowing costs have moved lower after late-year bond rally. Home prices in December were the lowest since March 2023 – Bloomberg
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong home prices to erode another 10% in 2024 as impact of expected interest-rate cuts will take time: Citigroup. ‘It will take time for interest-rate cuts to impact the Hong Kong economy,’ analyst says. The bank expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in July and reduce them by 1 per cent this year – South China Morning Post
  • [Ireland] House prices to stabilise in 2024 as second-hand market recovers – Daft.ie. Property values rose 3.4% last year with the average home on the market for €320,000 – The Irish Times
  • [Norway] Norway Home Prices Grow for Third Month as Rate Peak Reached. Seasonally adjusted prices rose 0.2% on month in December. Market is forecast to pick up pace after first quarter – Bloomberg
  • [Spain] Sweden La vivienda en 2024: comprar y alquilar será más caro, pero las hipotecas darán un respiro. El sector no espera una gran crisis que provoque caídas generalizadas en los precios, aunque en segunda mano será posible encontrar algunas rebajas moderadas. Los endeudados verán cierto alivio en las letras mensuales – El Pais
  • [Singapore] Singapore Home Prices Rise 2.7% in Fourth Quarter on Demand. Private residential prices climb for second straight quarter. Prices increased 6.7% for the whole year on local demand – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK Mortgage Approvals, Consumer Credit Rise More Than Forecast – Bloomberg

Working papers and conferences:

  • Housing Speculation, GSEs, and Credit Market Spillovers – Philadelphia Fed
  • What Do We Learn from Mobile Phone Location Data about Mobility and Housing During Covid-19 – SSRN
  • Identifying the Effects of Financial and Housing Shocks on Economic Activity: A Medium-Run SVAR Perspective – SSRN
  • Employment Fluctuations, Real Estate Prices, and Property Taxes – SSRN
  • Government-Made House Price Bubbles?

Read the full article…

Posted by at 10:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – December 15, 2023

On cross-country:

  • Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing market risks – BIS
  • Global housing markets shrug off the impact of higher rates – Knight Frank
  • Most European Housing Markets to See Modest Price Growth in 2024 – Fitch Ratings
  • European mortgage market set for lowest growth in a decade. High rates and inflation and slowing economies have taken their toll on demand, finds EY report – FT
  • Asia’s housing market pain: why Japan could be next. China’s property crisis is just one of many signs that Asia’s housing sector troubles are far from over. Japan could be in for a shock if a shift from years of ultra-loose monetary policy pushes up lending rates, hitting home loans hard – South China Morning Post


Working papers and conferences:

  • Feeling Rich, Feeling Poor: Housing Wealth Effects and Consumption in Europe – IMF
  • Mortgage Debt and the Consumption Response to Fiscal Transfers – FHFA
  • The Effect of Land Leverage on House Sale Probability and Price – SSRN
  • The Escalating Housing Crisis in Europe: An Inexorable Progression – SSRN


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • US market distortions put spotlight back on 30-year mortgage debate. Americans love long, fixed-rate loans but they can make homes less affordable for low income earners – FT
  • The “Home ATM” Mostly Closed in Q3. Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was low in Q3 – Calculated Risk
  • Mortgage rates are sinking, but don’t try to time the housing market by waiting for them to fall further, BofA exec says – Business Insider
  • Mortgage Rates in US Fall for Sixth Week, Dropping Closer to 7%. Average for 30-year loans is at lowest level since August. Steeper declines needed to reinvigorate demand, economist says – Bloomberg
  • Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO. REO: lender Real Estate Owned – Calculated Risk
  • Will House Prices Go Down? Goldman Sachs Gives Housing Market Prediction – Newsweek


On the US—other developments:    

  • The Math for Buying a Home No Longer Works. These Charts Show You Why. What does it take to buy a home in the U.S.? A lot more than it did before the Federal Reserve raised interest rates – Wall Street Journal
  • New Legislation Proposes to Take Wall Street Out of the Housing Market. A bill introduced in the House and Senate would prevent hedge funds from owning single-family houses in the United States. – New York Times
  • US Homebuilding Is Weathering the Fed’s Hikes – Bloomberg
  • Housing Markets Facing Greater Risk Of Downturns Clustered In California, New Jersey And Illinois – ATTOM
  • Another Housing Crash? These Are the Markets Most at Risk of a Downturn – Realtor.com
  • 2023 Has Been The Least Affordable Year for Homebuying on Record—But 2024 Is Looking Up – Redfin
  • Remarks by National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard Addressing the Challenge of Housing Affordability At the National Housing Conference – White House 
  • 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November with Comparison to 2019 – Calculated Risk
  • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December Calculated Risk
  • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December – Calculated Risk
  • Housing Affordability Conditions Tumble in October 2023 – National Association of Realtors
  • Homeowner Mobility Stalls Amid Rising Interest Rates – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
  • Seasonal Influence Eases U.S. Foreclosure Activity, Marking Slight Decline – ATTOM
  • Economists: Turnaround in Home Sales Likely in 2024 – National Association of Realtors


On China:

  • Country Garden Staves Off Worsening of Debt Crisis With Payment. China developer repaid 800 million yuan note ahead of schedule. Local firm stake exit aimed at helping offshore restructuring – Bloomberg


On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Australia Will Raise Fees for Foreigners Buying Existing Houses – Bloomberg
  • [Australia] Australia to Cut Record High Migration as Housing Crisis Bites. New strategy to bring in skilled workers and control migration. Government says intake will return to pre-pandemic levels – Bloomberg
  • [Australia] Australia’s Housing Costs Have Hit New Highs. Officials See Migrants as Part of the Problem. Many newcomers have settled in cities where housing is in short supply, raising concerns about property affordability – Wall Street Journal
  • [Australia] Australian Builders Reject Moves to Sting Foreign Investors in Housing – Wall Street Journal
  • [Australia] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Australia – BIS
  • [Australia] Shifting the needle on the housing crisis: will Chalmers’ plan to slug foreign home buyers be enough? Treasurer has announced plans to triple fees foreigners pay when buying established homes and to double penalties for leaving a property vacant – The Guardian
  • [Australia] Australian Property Forecast: What’s In Store For 2024? – Forbes
  • [Belgium] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Belgium – BIS
  • [Canada] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Canada – BIS
  • [Canada] Economic progress report: Immigration, housing and the outlook for inflation – Bank of Canada
  • [Canada] Bank of Canada urges removal of barriers to home building to cut inflation – Reuters
  • [Canada] Canada Revives Wartime Home Strategy to Address Housing Crisis. Thousands of simple ‘Victory Houses’ built starting in ‘40s. New program to add dense homes such as multiplexes, mid-rises – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Bank Watchdog Keeps Rule That’s Slowing Canada’s Mortgage Market. Regulator holds mortgage qualifying rate at existing level. Canada’s housing market faces decades-low affordability – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] ‘A buyers’ market with no buyers’: CIBC economist on housing market – Bloomberg
  • [France] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: France – BIS
  • [Germany] German Housing Crisis Deepens as Slump in New Orders Hits Record. More home builders report suffering from financial strains. Sector confidence falls further, with no turnaround in sight – Bloomberg
  • [Hong Kong] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Hong Kong – BIS
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s property pain may soon get real – Reuters
  • [India] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: India – BIS
  • [Ireland] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Ireland – BIS
  • [Ireland] Ireland’s housing crisis is a disaster for its people – and a gift to far-right fearmongers. Decades of skewed policy have led to one of Europe’s worst shortages of affordable homes. Now it is being weaponised against refugees – The Guardian
  • [Ireland] House prices across the State rise by 2.3% but Dublin down again. Central Statistics Office index records 0.6% decrease in residential property prices in Dublin, while prices outside Dublin are up by 4.5% – The Irish Times
  • [Israel] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Israel – BIS
  • [Luxembourg] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Luxembourg – BIS
  • [Mexico] ¿Qué factores impactarán en el crédito hipotecario en el 2024? – El Economista
  • [Netherlands] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Netherlands – BIS
  • [New Zealand] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: New Zealand – BIS
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices fall but activity up -REINZ – Reuters
  • [Singapore] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Singapore – BIS
  • [Singapore] Singapore Narrows the Gap With Hong Kong on Real Estate Deals – Bloomberg
  • [Sweden] Swedish Turn Positive on Home Prices After Benchmark Rate Levels Off – Bloomberg
  • [Sweden] Sweden Posts Sharp Home-Price Plunge as Rates Hit Global Markets. The Nordic country logged an 11% decline in the year through September, whereas the global average gained slightly, according to Knight Frank. – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK Housing Market Gloom Returns After Unexpected Price Rises. Asking prices fell by an unusually large 1.9% in December. Banking group expects 8% drop in mortgage lending next year Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Fell Sharply in December – Wall Street Journal
  • [United Kingdom] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: United Kingdom – BIS
  • [United Kingdom] Britain needs more houses. Does the industry want to build them? Developers are wary of adding supply to a falling market – The Economist
  • [United Kingdom] UK Mortgage Lending Falls Sharply as Arrears Increase, BOE Says. Figures show impact of interest rate hikes on property market. Value of all mortgage loans fell in the third quarter – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK Home Asking Prices Are Down 5% From the Peak. Sellers appear to be waking up to higher interest rates. – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK mortgage arrears hit six-year high, data shows. More homeowners struggle to meet payments in third quarter as interest rates remain elevated – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Outlook improves for UK housing market, property survey finds. Sales expectations rose in November on the back of easing mortgage rates, Rics data shows – FT

On cross-country:

  • Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing market risks – BIS
  • Global housing markets shrug off the impact of higher rates – Knight Frank
  • Most European Housing Markets to See Modest Price Growth in 2024 – Fitch Ratings
  • European mortgage market set for lowest growth in a decade. High rates and inflation and slowing economies have taken their toll on demand,

Read the full article…

Posted by at 9:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Housing View – December 8, 2023

On cross-country:

  • BIS residential property price statistics, Q2 2023 – BIS
  • Housing and credit access – European Central Bank
  • Short supply of homes to push global property prices higher at slower pace – Reuters
  • Global Prime Residential Forecast – Knight Frank


Working papers and conferences:

  • Are Collateral and Lender Screening Efforts Substitutes? – SSRN
  • The Unintended Consequences of Home-buying Restriction in China – SSRN
  • Short-Term Forecasting Housing Investment: An Averaging Approach from a CEE Country – SSRN
  • Housing Regulation and Bubbles – SSRN
  • Pricing and Incentives in the Housing Market – SSRN   


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • The Most Important Inflation Indicator Shows More Cooling Ahead. Rent Growth in New Leases Continues to Normalize, Signaling Further Upcoming Decelerations in Official Housing Inflation Data – Apricitas Economics
  • Home Prices Are Historically High Next to Rents. Don’t Panic. The ratio is well above the levels that preceded the last housing crash. But there might be extenuating circumstances. – Bloomberg
  • Inflation Fight Has Come Down to Housing, Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee Says. The policy maker says inflation data released Thursday is where the Fed wants it to be – Wall Street Journal
  • Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below Peak. Price-to-rent index is 6.9% below recent peak – Calculated Risk
  • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in October to New High; Up 6.0% Year-over-year. Austin Prices Down 11.2% from Peak Seasonally Adjusted – Calculated Risk
  • ICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: “Home prices continued sending mixed signals in October”. Florida has experienced some of the largest inventory gains in recent months – Calculated Risk
  • Mortgage Shoppers: Beware of High-Cost Options – NBER
  • Home price appreciation to cool in 2024: Goldman Sachs – Yahoo Finance


On the US—other developments:    

  • Home-Mortgage Lending Declines Again Across U.S. During Third Quarter As Mortgage Rates Climb – ATTOM
  • FHA First-Time Buyer Homeownership Sustainability: An Update – New York Fed
  • Understanding the Generational Gaps in Homeownership – St. Louis Fed 
  • 2024 Housing Market Forecast and Predictions: Housing Affordability Finally Begins to Turnaround – Realtor.com
  • Move Over Millennials, Gen Z is Driving Rental Demand – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
  • BofA Report Shows Fewer Prospective Homebuyers Willing to Wait for a Better Market Environment. 62% willing to wait for prices and/or rates to fall before buying a home, down from 85% just six months ago – Bank of America
  • Top Housing Markets for 2024 – Realtor.com
  • Slowest Housing Market in Years Is Weighing on Consumer Spending. Sofa sellers go bust, prospective homebuyers cut spending. Average household spends $8000 more over two years when moving – Bloomberg
  • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November with Comparison to 2019. Early data suggests new cycle low for sales in November 2023 – Calculated Risk


On China:

  • Restructure or liquidate? Deadline looms for China’s Evergrande. Heavily indebted developer must come up with a plan before crucial court hearing on Monday – FT
  • Give us our flats! The angry victims of China’s property crisis. Millions of people are waiting for homes that may never be built – The Economist


On other countries:  

  • [Spain] BBVA Research advierte que el “elevado costo de la vivienda” aleja al inversor de Espana – El Observedor
  • [Spain] ¿Está desesperado porque no hay vivienda protegida? Estos cambios auguran un resurgimiento de las casas asequibles. La revisión de los precios de venta y alquiler en algunas comunidades debería animar a los promotores a volver a construir este tipo de casas – El Pais
  • [Spain] El precio de la vivienda sigue al alza tras encarecerse la obra nueva un 11% en el tercer trimester. La fuerte subida de los pisos a estrenar, la mayor de los últimos 16 años, impide el ajuste en los precios medios, que aumentaron un 4,5% – El Pais
  • [Sweden] Swedish Homeowners Increasingly See House Prices Recovering – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices likely to fall by 1% next year, says Rightmove. Competition among sellers will increase as mortgage rates settle at ‘elevated’ level, website predicts – The Guardian

On cross-country:

  • BIS residential property price statistics, Q2 2023 – BIS
  • Housing and credit access – European Central Bank
  • Short supply of homes to push global property prices higher at slower pace – Reuters
  • Global Prime Residential Forecast – Knight Frank

Working papers and conferences:

  • Are Collateral and Lender Screening Efforts Substitutes?

Read the full article…

Posted by at 9:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

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