The Unassuming Economist

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool – Calculated Risk
• Housing Finance Watch (Week 14, 2025) – AEI
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• Why the US mortgage market is addicted to big government. Government guarantees on securitised home loans make them generally low risk — but Trump’s policymaking raises concerns – FT
• Event: Mortgage Giants at a Crossroads: Would Re-Privatization of Freddie & Fannie Help or Hurt Housing? On April 17 – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Refinancing Continues to Drive Mortgage Activity in March – NAHB  
• US home price insights – April 2025 – Cotality

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Housing market power shift: 7 states where buyers are gaining leverage. ResiClub analyzed end of March 2025 housing inventory data just released from Realtor.com. Here’s what it shows. – Fast Company
• March 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• Homebuilders got a bit of a break from Trump’s tariffs, but the housing market could still suffer. Even as lumber and other building materials were exempted from tariffs, market uncertainty could cause buyers and sellers to rethink their plans. – Yahoo Finance
• 58 housing markets where inventory has spiked, and homebuyers have gained power. Among the nation’s 200 largest housing markets, these 58 metro areas now have active inventory at or above 2019 pre-pandemic levels. – Fast Company
• Almost Half of the Owner-Occupied Homes Built Before 1980 – NAHB
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March – Calculated Risk
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 – Calculated Risk
• US houses are shrinking as inflation pushes ‘McMansions’ out of reach. Even in Texas, the American dream of home ownership is being downsized because of an affordability crisis – FT
• The Case for Single-Stair Buildings. How a Code Reform Could Make Housing More Affordable—Without Sacrificing Safety – City of Yes
• How DC densified. Washington, DC, has avoided the worst price rises that have plagued other American cities. Arlington might be the reason. – The Works in Progress Newsletter
• Remodeling Market Sentiment Down in First Quarter – NAHB

On impact of tariffs on housing:

• Trump Pauses Tariffs on Most Countries for 90 Days, Sending Stocks Soaring and Relieving Pressure on Housing Market – Realtor.com
• Trump’s Tariffs Are Expected To Raise New-Home Costs by $9,200—and These States Will Feel the Most Pain – Realtor.com
• Tarek El Moussa Says Homebuilders and First-Time Buyers Will Be Hit Hardest by Trump’s Tariffs – Realtor.com
• Trump’s Tariffs Will Affect Homebuilding—but Mortgage Rates Inch Down Another Week – Realtor.com
• Mortgage rates sink on Trump tariffs, but other costs may deter buyers – Axios
• Will tariffs affect mortgage rates? What to know about the housing market. Experts say it’s not immediately clear how President Trump’s new tariffs will affect borrowers, but building costs might rise and volatility may follow. – Washington Post
• Trump’s Trade Wars Are Having a Very Unexpected Effect on Housing. But Not Where You Think. It’s the kind of bold federal plan that progressive Americans can only dream about. – Slate
• Tariffs Threaten to Push US Home Insurance Rates Even Higher – Bloomberg
• Why China Tariffs Are Bad News for US Housing Market – Newsweek
• Warren to Mortgage Bankers Association: Trump’s Trade War is Driving Up Housing Costs Amidst Housing Affordability Crisis – US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs
• What Trump’s Tariffs Mean for Mortgage Rates – Time
• What a Recession Could Mean for the Housing Market – Realtor.com

On other developments:    

• Americans Have $35 Trillion in Housing Wealth—and It’s Costing Them. Surging home equity is all the more important in a declining stock market. But it’s come with rising property taxes and higher hurdles for borrowing. – Wall Street Journal
• Housing Agency Aims to Relocate Its DC Headquarters. The US Department of Housing and Urban Development intends to leave its aging Brutalist building in Washington, DC. – Bloomberg
• Tariffs and Car Buying: The New, Unexpected Barrier to Homeownership – Realtor.com
• In 15 Years, 80,000 Homes in the New York Area May Be Lost to Flooding. The metro region’s housing shortage is acute. But by 2040, dozens of neighborhoods and suburbs are likely to have lost thousands of homes to floods, a new report found. – New York Times
• How Climate Change Could Make Homes Disappear. In the next 15 years, the New York area could lose more than 80,000 homes to floods, worsening the housing shortage, according to a new report. – New York Times
• Will the U.S. Housing Crisis Be Exploited for a Massive Public Lands Sell-Off? Some politicians are using the nation’s housing affordability problems as a pretense to sell off public lands—an extreme agenda that puts America’s treasured lands and waters at risk without substantively addressing housing needs. A new initiative from the Trump administration publicly promises restraint, while specific proposals from Capitol Hill tell a different story. – Center for American Progress

On cross-country:

• The housing crisis deepens in developed countries. The housing crisis worsens as property prices rise and incomes stagnate, affecting affordability and economic well-being throughout developed nations. – GIS

Working papers and conferences:

• Concentration in Mortgage Markets: GSE Exposure and Risk-Taking in Uncertain Times – Philadelphia Fed
• Not all housing cycles are created equal: Macroeconomic consequences of housing booms – VoxEU
• The impact of rent controls: Lessons from Catalonia – VoxEU
• The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates on Housing Market Dynamics – SSRN
• Housing Policy for the New Paradigm: Lessons Learned from the World Bank Disaster Recovery Projects – SSRN

On China:

• Estate agents in China are trying everything to sell flats. You can place your deposit in bushels of wheat or strings of garlic – The Economist
• Property sales at Chinese developer Country Garden drop by over a third. Revenue slump highlights extent of real estate slowdown now in its fourth year – FT

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Housing is less affordable than ever. Of all the problems facing Australia today, few have worsened so rapidly in the past 25 years as housing affordability.  – Grattan
• [Australia] Housing dream turned nightmare weighs on Australian voters ahead of national election – Reuters
• [Australia] Australia’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Australia] Australia home prices hit new record in March after rate cut, CoreLogic data shows – Reuters
• [Australia] Australian house prices hit new peak as rate cut drives buyer demand. Tougher conditions for first home buyers – and renters, who are now often spending more than those with mortgages – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australian House Prices Reach Fresh High Ahead of May Election – Bloomberg
• [Australia] RBA Says Victoria Recorded Biggest Increase in Mortgage Arrears – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] New Zealand Housing Market Has Entered Upturn, CoreLogic Says – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Improving housing affordability in Canada takes a backseat – RBC
• [Canada] Trump is gunning for Canada—and Canadian homeowners in the U.S. want out. A property sell-off has already begun, and brokers expect it to get worse. – Fast Company
• [Canada] Canada’s housing market ‘not immune’ to trade war pain, economist says – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Toronto Home Sales Plunge as Trade War Hits Consumer Confidence – Bloomberg
• [Cambodia] Cambodia’s Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Germany] House prices in city centers fall more sharply than in other neighborhoods – KIEL
• [India] India’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Japan] Japan Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Norway] Norway Home Prices Rise at Slowest Pace Since Last July – Bloomberg
• [Pakistan] Pakistan’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Slovenia] Housing: Who can afford to rent in the Slovenian capital? – European Data Journalism Network
• [Spain] How Housing Speculation Created Environmental Crisis in Spain. The floods that hit Spain last year were more than just a natural disaster. They were exacerbated by housing developers who built homes in the most flood-prone areas. – Jacobin
• [Spain] Barcelona Becomes Ground Zero for Europe’s Housing Dilemma. The Spanish city’s woes mirror a broader affordable-housing crunch spreading rapidly across Europe and driving inequality. – New York Times
• [Spain] In Spain, a Race for the Last Golden Visas. The residency-by-investment program meant to stimulate the economy was so popular that Spain had to shut it down. – New York Times
• [Turkey] Turkey Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] You can’t grow an economy by crushing aspiration. Few will weep for second-home owners paying extra council tax — but the successful know when they’re not wanted – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK Mortgage Demand Eases as Time Runs Out on Tax Break – Bloomberg

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Mortgage Rates Hold Steady After Early March Drop – NAHB
• FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores – Calculated Risk
• 82% of Outstanding Mortgage Debt Has a Sub-6% Rate – Realtor.com
• What Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ Tariff Moves Mean for Home Prices and Mortgage Rates – Realtor.com
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year. 7 of the 10 cities with largest price declines are in Florida! – Calculated Risk
• Breaking Down the Price of a New Home in the U.S. – Visual Capitalist
• California Home Prices May Drop Soon as Housing Market Flashes Warning, Real Estate CEO Says – Realtor.com
• Jackson Hole’s Housing Market Isn’t Coming Back Down to Earth Anytime Soon. Prices at the luxury level remain as high as ever, as those who bought property during Covid show no signs of selling – Wall Street Journal
• Housing Prices Are Pushing Down Payments to New Highs—See How Much More Homebuyers Are Paying – Realtor.com
• Down Payments Continue Upward, Hitting a Q4 Peak – Realtor.com
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in February. Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Equals Highest Since 2011 (ex-Pandemic) – Calculated Risk

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Homebuilder inventory hits 2009 levels: These are the housing markets where you can find deals. In February 2025, the number of unsold completed new single-family homes in the U.S. hit the highest level since summer 2009. – Fast Company
• Moody’s: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High – Calculated Risk
• Manhattan Home Sales Soar as Buyers Seize on Mortgage Rate Dips – Bloomberg
• Soft Job Openings Estimate for Construction – NAHB
• Private Residential Construction Spending Rises in February – NAHB
• Manufactured Homes: An Alternative Means of Housing Supply – NAHB
• America’s housing crisis is solvable—if we choose to build – Fortune

On other developments:    

• Middle-Class Americans in Only These 20 States Can Afford an Average-Priced Home Where They Live – Realtor.com
• Housing market sees biggest home-flipping pullback since 2007. A new survey reveals how home flippers are moving forward in today’s affordability-constrained housing market. – Fast Company
• Hurricane Helene’s Impact on Housing in Western North Carolina – Richmond Fed
• Homeowners Are Sitting on $34.7 Trillion in Equity—but Mortgage Debt Is Growing – Realtor.com
• The Last Abundance Agenda. In the 1980s, Wall Street vowed to make housing more affordable through deregulation of housing finance. The result was the 2008 crisis. – The American Prospect
• Everyone is Moving to Florida. Walking you through my analysis of migration – Home Economics
• Will cheap housing lead to more babies? The connection between housing and fertility rates has a missing piece. – Vox
• Surveying Missing Middle Housing—Trends in the United States and Massachusetts – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies 

From a paper by Roubyou Said and Ouakil Hicham:

“In this study, we aimed to assess the effectiveness of monetary policy in influencing housing prices in Morocco. Bayesian estimation over the period 2007Q2–2017Q2 of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model allowed us to reveal a significant impact of the increase in policy interest rates on the prices of residential goods. Indeed, the implementation of a restrictive monetary policy in Morocco will drive the prices of this type of asset downward. Despite this empirical finding, the historical decomposition of shocks impacting the inflation of residential property prices shows that interest rates explain only a small portion of the variations in housing prices in this country. Our results also indicate that an increase in the share of borrowers extends the time required for economic and financial variables to return to their equilibrium state. This is a sign of the potential dangers of fueling housing bubbles through credit booms.”

On cross-country:

• House prices in Europe reactivate with the shift in monetary policy – CaixaBank

Working papers and conferences:

• Homeownership and Attention to Inflation: Evidence from Information Treatments – NBER
• Growth and Fluctuations Economies with Land Speculation – NBER
• Sewers and Urbanization in the Developing World – NBER
• Forecasting House Price Growth Using Months Supply of Housing – Richmond Fed

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• National Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index—February 2025 – AEI
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January – Calculated Risk
• U.S. Home-Price Accelerated in January, but Mortgage Rates Still Weighed. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 4.1% on year in January, higher than the 4.0% rise in December – Wall Street Journal
• Case-Shiller Index: Home Prices Climb 4.1% in January – Realtor.com
• Buyer’s or seller’s market: Zillow’s analysis for over 250 housing markets. Here are the top metro areas where sellers—and buyers—have the most power right now, according to Zillow’s most recent analysis. – Fast Company
• New Construction Is Changing American Cities. The median year that homes were built has risen, largely due to population growth and the need to house a migrating population. – New York Times
• Volume of Residential Construction Loans Falls in Q4 2024 – NAHB
• ‘Challenging’ Housing Market Is Squeezing Homebuilder Profit Margins, Top Construction Company Warns – Realtor.com
• Why the Supply of Homes for Sale is Increasing – Arizona Real Estate Notebook
• Spec Homes Sitting on the Market Pose Potential Economic Drag. Builders might pull back on new housing construction as they try to clear their backlog. – Bloomberg
• Blue states don’t build. Red states do. A timely repost, with some updates. – Noahpinion
• Slight Decline in Rates Helps New Home Sales to Edge Higher in February – NAHB
• New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February. Average New Home Price is Down 10% from the Peak due to Change in Mix – Calculated Risk 
• New-Home Sales Picked Up in February, Driven by Affordable Inventory – Realtor.com
• This 4-Bedroom Ranch in N.J. Tells You Everything About the Lopsided Housing Market. The Northeast has tons of demand and low supply, but parts of the Sunbelt are seeing a flood of houses for sale – Wall Street Journal
• Lennar: “Didn’t see typical seasonal pickup after February” – Calculated Risk
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February and a Look Ahead to March Sales – Calculated Risk
• Trump’s Housing Chief Embarks on Shake-Up at Mortgage Giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Administration has discussed privatizing the two firms – Wall Street Journal

On the US—other developments:    

• Fifty Shades of Growth. Birth and death rates are quietly determining tomorrow’s real estate hotspots – Home Economics
• Homeownership Has Always Impacted American Democracy – Time
• Home-Ownership Remains Financial Stretch Around U.S. as Prices Remain Near Record High – ATTOM
• Understanding office-to-residential conversion – Brookings
• America’s housing affordability crisis and the decline of housing supply – Brookings
• Trump Moves Forward With Plans To Use Federal Land To Build Affordable Housing – Realtor.com
• Housing Roadblocks: Paving a New Way to Address Affordability – AEI
• Lower Mortgage Rates, Better Affordability – NAHB
• Gen Z and Millennial Homeownership Rates Flatlined in 2024 As Housing Costs Soared – Realtor.com
• Why Gen Z buyers are looking beyond Seattle – Axios
• Homesteading 2.0: A Proposal to Make Housing Affordable Again – AEI
• They Bought and Sold Homes During Covid. Was It Worth It? For many, the pandemic gave them the push they needed to make a major life change – Wall Street Journal
• Lawsuit Challenges Use of Eminent Domain as NIMBY Tool to Block Housing Project. A Rhode Island town seeks to use eminent domain to block construction of a large-scale affordable housing project. – Reason
• Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook – Calculated Risk
• Dos and Don’ts – March Edition. Good and bad moves on zoning, ADUs, public space, taxes and more – The New Urban Order
• Why the economy isn’t working, revisited – Erdman Housing Tracker
• How the pandemic transformed Nashville’s housing market – Axios
• Five Ways Residential Mobility Has Changed in the Pandemic Era – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Americans Are Losing Faith in Trump’s Ability To Fix the Housing Market—With 70% Fearing an Impending Crash – Realtor.com

On China:

• Chinese developer Sunac unveils unprecedented 2nd restructuring. Move by mainland property giant highlights continuing debt problems in depressed sector – FT

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Trade war not good for interest rates or home buyers: Cotality – Financial Review
• [Australia] Where coastal property prices are hot – Financial Review

On other countries:  

• [Germany] GREIX annual analysis 2024: Slight price decline in all housing segments – KIEL
• [Germany] German home prices halt decline in fourth quarter but outlook uncertain – Reuters
• [Germany] Germany’s latest fiscal reform poses obstacles for the housing market’s recovery. By the end of 2024, German house prices were around 11% below their peak in the second quarter of 2022. Looking ahead, the recent increase in bond yields is expected to slow the housing market’s recovery – ING
• [Kuwait] Kuwait Is Set to Allow Banks to Offer Mortgages for the First Time – Bloomberg
• [India] India Home Sales Drop 23% as High Prices, Buyer Caution Weigh – Bloomberg
• [Ireland] Property inflation hits eight-year high as typical asking price for home hits €346,000. Median asking price in Dublin is now €460,726. Chronically short supply is hampering buyers and pushing up prices – Irish Independent
• [Nigeria] Nigeria Set to Create $654 Million Fund to Provide Home Loans – Bloomberg
• [Spain] The real estate boom spreads across Spain – CaixaBank
• [Spain] The expansive cycle takes hold. The shortage of housing supply in a context of strong demand will remain one of the main challenges of Spain’s real estate market in 2025, although it is not among the most overvalued markets in the European Union. – CaixaBank 
• [United Kingdom] Cambridge yimbies. The home of Harvard and MIT embraces yimby-ism – The Economist
• [United Kingdom] House affordability in England and Wales returns to pre-pandemic levels. Wage growth has outstripped property price rises, official figures show – FT
• [United Kingdom] London House Prices Become Cheaper But Are Still Unaffordable – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Reeves to put £2bn into affordable housing to ‘sweeten the pill’ of cuts. Chancellor will announce plans to fund 18,000 social homes before fraught spring statement on Wednesday – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices jump by most in two years, ONS says – Reuters