Showing posts with label Forecasting Forum. Show all posts
Friday, June 15, 2018
From a new article from the The Economist:
“The Economist has built a statistical model to identify what makes a country good at football. Our aim is not to predict the winner in Russia, which can be done best by looking at a team’s recent results or the calibre of its squad. Instead we want to discover the underlying sporting and economic factors that determine a country’s footballing potential—and to work out why some countries exceed expectations or improve rapidly. We take the results of all international games since 1990 and see which variables are correlated with the goal difference between teams.” “Our model explains 40% of the variance in average goal difference for these teams.”
From a new article from the The Economist:
“The Economist has built a statistical model to identify what makes a country good at football. Our aim is not to predict the winner in Russia, which can be done best by looking at a team’s recent results or the calibre of its squad. Instead we want to discover the underlying sporting and economic factors that determine a country’s footballing potential—and to work out why some countries exceed expectations or improve rapidly.
Posted by 10:37 AM
atLabels: Forecasting Forum
Monday, June 4, 2018
From a new Forbes article by Raul Elizalde:
“Forecasting the economy is just as difficult as forecasting the stock market. Economists are very good at explaining what already happened and why, but not so at predicting what will happen next.
They know this. Prakash Loungani, an economist at the IMF, showed in a study that professional forecasters missed 148 out of 153 world recessions. This is not surprising: Economic indicators very rarely flash any warnings before a recession actually arrives. Economic downturns seem to come unexpectedly.”
My paper is available here.
From a new Forbes article by Raul Elizalde:
“Forecasting the economy is just as difficult as forecasting the stock market. Economists are very good at explaining what already happened and why, but not so at predicting what will happen next.
They know this. Prakash Loungani, an economist at the IMF, showed in a study that professional forecasters missed 148 out of 153 world recessions. This is not surprising: Economic indicators very rarely flash any warnings before a recession actually arrives.
Posted by 8:36 AM
atLabels: Forecasting Forum
Wednesday, May 30, 2018
A new IMF working paper finds that “recessions, fiscal problems, as well as Balance of Payment-difficulties are more likely to arise in countries where past growth expectations have been overly optimistic.”
“The mechanism which transforms over-optimism into future crises seems to run through higher debt accumulation: both the public and private sector seem to “celebrate” positive news about the future by borrowing more. If the expected rise in income subsequently fails to materialize, the amount of debt accumulated turns out to be excessive and negative dynamics set in.”
“Our results illustrate the potency of (non-materializing) optimism shocks and underline the importance of basing policy upon realistic (or even cautious) medium-term macroeconomic forecasts. Specically, our nding regarding the impact of over-optimism on the incidence of future recessions provides support for existing models in the news/noisetradition, but we are not aware of contributions which model the particular transmission channel that our results point at. Developing such a theoretical model could be an important avenue for future research.”
A new IMF working paper finds that “recessions, fiscal problems, as well as Balance of Payment-difficulties are more likely to arise in countries where past growth expectations have been overly optimistic.”
“The mechanism which transforms over-optimism into future crises seems to run through higher debt accumulation: both the public and private sector seem to “celebrate” positive news about the future by borrowing more. If the expected rise in income subsequently fails to materialize,
Posted by 7:05 PM
atLabels: Forecasting Forum
Europe’s future: The value of an institutional economics perspective – VOXEU
Spring 2018 Economic Forecast: Expansion to continue, amid new risks – European Commission
A Brief Analysis of the Central America and the Caribbean Economy – Focus Economics
The yield curve and the stock market: Mind the long run – VOXEU
Expansion to continue amid new risks – VOXEU
Economic Snapshot for the G7 Countries – Focus Economics
Retail Apocalypse Postponed Not Cancelled – Conference Board
Biggest fear for world growth is fear itself as markets fret – Bloomberg Quint
Exchange rate forecasting on a napkin – Unassuming Economist
Europe’s future: The value of an institutional economics perspective – VOXEU
Spring 2018 Economic Forecast: Expansion to continue, amid new risks – European Commission
A Brief Analysis of the Central America and the Caribbean Economy – Focus Economics
The yield curve and the stock market: Mind the long run – VOXEU
Expansion to continue amid new risks – VOXEU
Economic Snapshot for the G7 Countries – Focus Economics
Retail Apocalypse Postponed Not Cancelled – Conference Board
Biggest fear for world growth is fear itself as markets fret – Bloomberg Quint
Exchange rate forecasting on a napkin – Unassuming Economist
Posted by 10:42 AM
atLabels: Forecasting Forum
From a new ECB working paper:
“The international finance literature has documented two important regularities in foreign exchange markets. First, there is ample evidence that, for developed countries, real exchange rates are reverting to the level implied by the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory. Second, for flexible currency regimes the adjustment process is mainly driven by the nominal exchange rate. At the same time most of the recent articles remain skeptical that one can outperform the random walk (RW) in nominal exchange rate forecasting.
In this paper we claim that the two above in-sample regularities of foreign exchange markets can be exploited to infer out-of-sample movements of major currency pairs. To prove this thesis we proceed as follows:
Our paper has an important message for policymakers. For advanced countries, it is better to rely on the concept of long-run PPP rather than on the RW.”
From a new ECB working paper:
“The international finance literature has documented two important regularities in foreign exchange markets. First, there is ample evidence that, for developed countries, real exchange rates are reverting to the level implied by the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory. Second, for flexible currency regimes the adjustment process is mainly driven by the nominal exchange rate. At the same time most of the recent articles remain skeptical that one can outperform the random walk (RW) in nominal exchange rate forecasting.
Posted by 9:32 AM
atLabels: Forecasting Forum, Macro Demystified
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