The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Weizhuojia Peng, Weibai Liu, Yijia Li:

“This paper examines the impact of financial development on pollution reduction at the enterprise level using statistical data from 30 provinces in China from the period 2018 to 2022. The effect of financial development on pollution reduction is examined separately from the perspectives of scale effect and technology effect. Although there are significant regional differences in the impact of the increased use of financial instruments on pollution reduction in different provinces of China, on balance the greater use of financial tools decreases pollution, reflecting the technological effect of utilizing financial tools exceeds the scale effect. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of financial development on pollution reduction of private enterprises is higher than that of state-owned enterprises. The paper also discusses the implications for China in achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality and promoting high-quality economic development and an economic green transformation. Since improvement in the financial system is a key to improving the environment, the increased efficiency of financial tools enhances this improvement.”

From a paper by Hlalefang Khobai, Ponalo Xinishe, Mpho Lenoke:

“The surge in oil price levels remains a world-wide concern, more specifically to oil-importing countries such as South Africa. The dependence on crude oil from these net exporters makes the country vulnerable to external shocks, such as geopolitics. These effects have a pass-through effect to domestic headline inflation, induced by imported inflation. The general objective of the study is to investigate the asymmetric effect that the price of oil has on inflation in South Africa. To achieve these objectives, the study applied the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lags (NARDL), Error Correction Model (ECM), Pairwise Granger Causality, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition. The bounds test of cointegration revealed that cointegration exists between the observed variables of the study. After estimating the error correction model, the study found that in the short-run, the relationship between a positive change in oil price and inflation is negative and significant. However, the relationship between a negative change in oil price and inflation in the short-run is now positive and significant. Therefore, the correction of disequilibrium will take place in the long run by means of short-run adjustments, with the speed of 1.71%. Pairwise Granger Causality test revealed that a unidirectional relationship occurs from oil prices to inflation. The Variance Decomposition results show that a shock to oil price accounts for a greater percentage of fluctuation in inflation. The Impulse Response Function reveals that within a 10-year period there is a positive response of inflation to oil prices, specifically from year three to year five. The study recommends the South African oil import diversification policy to source oil from multiple exporting countries to ensure steady supply and reduce dependence on any single source. This strategy improves security and reduces vulnerability to oil price shocks and supply disruptions caused by various factors.”

From a paper by Baioni Tomás:

“This paper addresses the macroeconomic effects of subnational carbon pricing initiatives, fo- cusing on California’s cap and trade. Using high-frequency data and regulatory news, I construct a carbon policy surprise series to understand the aggregate effects of a carbon policy shock using impulse response functions from a SVAR model. Results on a monthly basis suggest that a shock tightening the carbon pricing regime leads to an immediate significant reduction in carbon emis- sions by 0.05%, albeit this reduction in emissions comes at the expense of an immediate temporary fall in economic activity by 0.01%. On the other hand, results suggest that increasing carbon prices do not transmit to either household energy prices or consumer prices. Likewise, estimations suggest that a positive shock to carbon prices decreases the monetary policy rate and increases unemploy- ment, albeit not statistically significant at the 10%. I resort to local projections as robustness checks and find that the prior conclusions hold, i.e., that the California’s cap and trade initiative has significant macroeconomic effects. I check as well my prior results on a weekly basis and find strong support of my initial results: higher carbon prices decrease California’s economic activity by 0.5% after 17 weeks (4 months). Similar content being viewed by others”

From a paper by Sommarat and Yana, Songsak Sriboonchitta:

“Environmental damage has become a pressing concern for researchers and policymakers worldwide, receiving significant attention in global discussions. Among the various contributors to environmental degradation, the emission of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, stands out as a primary driver. CO₂ emissions arise predominantly from the burning of fossil fuels for energy, industrial processes, and deforestation, making them a central focus in efforts to combat climate change. The accumulation of GHGs in the atmosphere intensifies the greenhouse effect, leading to global warming, rising sea levels, and disruptions in weather patterns. This research examines the impact of corruption on carbon emissions in six ASEAN countries, incorporating indicators such as economic growth, renewable energy usage, and urbanization. Economic growth, while crucial for development, often leads to increased energy consumption and industrial activities, resulting in higher carbon emissions. Conversely, renewable energy adoption can mitigate these emissions by replacing fossil fuels with cleaner energy sources. Urbanization, a common feature of ASEAN countries, presents a dual challenge: while it drives economic development, it also increases energy demand and emissions, especially in the absence of sustainable urban planning. By analyzing the interplay between these factors, the research aims to provide insights into the role of governance in shaping environmental outcomes. The findings are expected to guide policymakers in designing strategies to reduce carbon emissions, enhance renewable energy adoption, and address the challenges posed by corruption in achieving sustainable development goals. The research findings reveal the presence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve in the studied ASEAN countries, characterized by an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions. This suggests that at lower levels of economic development, emissions increase with growth, but beyond a certain income threshold, emissions begin to decline as economies adopt cleaner technologies and stronger environmental policies. The analysis shows that renewable energy has a significant negative impact on carbon emissions, highlighting its critical role in mitigating environmental degradation. Conversely, urbanization positively influences emissions, indicating that unplanned urban growth leads to increased energy consumption and pollution. Promoting sustained and inclusive economic growth while prioritizing investments in renewable energy is vital to reducing emissions. Urbanization must be managed with sustainable urban planning and infrastructure to minimize its environmental footprint.”

From a paper by Piotr Palac, and Justyna Tomala:

“The relationship between energy commodity prices and inflation has important implications for fiscal
policy and economic stability. The nature of energy commodities ismulti‑ d imensional, serving both as basic raw materials in production processes and as critical consumer goods. This study focuses on estimating the impact of oil, natural gas and coal prices on inflation in Poland. Through the adoption of multiple regression models using quarterly data from Q2 2000 to Q3 2023, the study aims to estimate the impact of energy commodity prices, particularly oil, coal, and natural gas, on inflation in Poland and to answer the research question: What role do energy commodity prices play in shaping inflation in Poland? The empirical analysis revealed that oil and coal prices significantly influence inflation, reflecting Poland’s energy dependency. Natural gas prices showed a limited impact due to lower consumption and mitigation policy measures. The significant impact of energy prices suggests that energy market developments should be closely monitored for their inflationary potential. The study offers valuable insights for policymakers in their efforts to effectively manage inflationary pressure. The article contributes to the literature by presenting the short‑ r un relationship between inflation and energy commodity prices, covering long period of time with both financial, COVID‑19 crisis and the Russian aggression in Ukraine.”