The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Sommarat and Yana, Songsak Sriboonchitta:

“Environmental damage has become a pressing concern for researchers and policymakers worldwide, receiving significant attention in global discussions. Among the various contributors to environmental degradation, the emission of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, stands out as a primary driver. CO₂ emissions arise predominantly from the burning of fossil fuels for energy, industrial processes, and deforestation, making them a central focus in efforts to combat climate change. The accumulation of GHGs in the atmosphere intensifies the greenhouse effect, leading to global warming, rising sea levels, and disruptions in weather patterns. This research examines the impact of corruption on carbon emissions in six ASEAN countries, incorporating indicators such as economic growth, renewable energy usage, and urbanization. Economic growth, while crucial for development, often leads to increased energy consumption and industrial activities, resulting in higher carbon emissions. Conversely, renewable energy adoption can mitigate these emissions by replacing fossil fuels with cleaner energy sources. Urbanization, a common feature of ASEAN countries, presents a dual challenge: while it drives economic development, it also increases energy demand and emissions, especially in the absence of sustainable urban planning. By analyzing the interplay between these factors, the research aims to provide insights into the role of governance in shaping environmental outcomes. The findings are expected to guide policymakers in designing strategies to reduce carbon emissions, enhance renewable energy adoption, and address the challenges posed by corruption in achieving sustainable development goals. The research findings reveal the presence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve in the studied ASEAN countries, characterized by an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions. This suggests that at lower levels of economic development, emissions increase with growth, but beyond a certain income threshold, emissions begin to decline as economies adopt cleaner technologies and stronger environmental policies. The analysis shows that renewable energy has a significant negative impact on carbon emissions, highlighting its critical role in mitigating environmental degradation. Conversely, urbanization positively influences emissions, indicating that unplanned urban growth leads to increased energy consumption and pollution. Promoting sustained and inclusive economic growth while prioritizing investments in renewable energy is vital to reducing emissions. Urbanization must be managed with sustainable urban planning and infrastructure to minimize its environmental footprint.”

From a paper by Piotr Palac, and Justyna Tomala:

“The relationship between energy commodity prices and inflation has important implications for fiscal
policy and economic stability. The nature of energy commodities ismulti‑ d imensional, serving both as basic raw materials in production processes and as critical consumer goods. This study focuses on estimating the impact of oil, natural gas and coal prices on inflation in Poland. Through the adoption of multiple regression models using quarterly data from Q2 2000 to Q3 2023, the study aims to estimate the impact of energy commodity prices, particularly oil, coal, and natural gas, on inflation in Poland and to answer the research question: What role do energy commodity prices play in shaping inflation in Poland? The empirical analysis revealed that oil and coal prices significantly influence inflation, reflecting Poland’s energy dependency. Natural gas prices showed a limited impact due to lower consumption and mitigation policy measures. The significant impact of energy prices suggests that energy market developments should be closely monitored for their inflationary potential. The study offers valuable insights for policymakers in their efforts to effectively manage inflationary pressure. The article contributes to the literature by presenting the short‑ r un relationship between inflation and energy commodity prices, covering long period of time with both financial, COVID‑19 crisis and the Russian aggression in Ukraine.”

From a paper by Luccas Assis Attílio, and André Varella Mollick:

“We investigate the effects of oil price shocks on industrial and emerging market economies. We use a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model with 19 economies from 1999M1 to 2022M3. Our sample evaluates output responses of each country to the same global shock, defined in several ways. While we find that domestic prices and interest rates in industrial economies respond to the WTI real oil price shock, the generalized impulse response functions (GIRF) tend to be not statistically significant in emerging economies. Stock markets increase in the first months for the oil producers but have negative values in the long-run. The oil price shock causes a generalized fall in industrial production and loses importance over time. We reinforce our results by identifying the oil shock using the structural GIRF (SGIRF) following a causal ordering from oil to real output. When we decompose WTI into either supply or demand shocks, industrial production declines in the short-run due to supply shocks but increases in response to oil demand shocks. Our results are very robust, especially in industrial economies when allowing for time-varying bilateral trade. Underscoring the importance of identifying oil price shocks, the oil price shock pushes inflation up, prompting the central bank’s response in policy rates.”

From a paper by Ruiqi Tan and Wei Dai:

“In this paper, we use monthly data from 1992 to 2022 and a structural VAR model to investigate the effects of oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks, and oil-specific demand shocks in the global crude oil market on the Canadian stock market. Our analysis reveals that these shocks affect the S&P/TSX Composite Index and various sector-specific indices in different ways. Specifically, the response of the Canadian market to oil-specific demand shocks diverges notably from the U.S. market, highlighting Canada’s unique position as an oil-exporting country. In the long run, oil price shocks account for over 10% of the variation in the composite index and as much as 35% in the Energy sector index.”

From a paper by Yiran Zhao, Xiangyun Gao, Huiling Zheng, Yupeng Zhang, Qingru Sun, Anjian Wang, and HaiZhong An:

“This study examines the impact of international crude oil prices on national sub-price indices following external shocks. It analyzes the heterogeneous transmission mechanisms of these shocks across diverse national price index networks. To achieve this, we employ Granger causality tests as the filter to construct impulse response networks. This approach helps unveil the duration, magnitude, and pathways of impact on sub-price indices in five countries: China, the US, Russia, Germany, and the UK. Our findings suggest that the impact of crude oil price changes on national sub-price indices is most pronounced within 1-2 months, and more persistent on the Producer Price Index (PPI) than the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Identifying specific sub-price indices affected by shocks shows that China and the US are more significantly impacted. Moreover, identifying the transmission paths of crude oil price changes within a country’s internal price system underscores the significance of the CPI of transportation. This study of price transmission within countries offers key insights for managing economic shocks at the microeconomic level.”