The Unassuming Economist

Published on Voxeu.org by Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Jonathan D. Ostry, Nour Tawk on 31 January 2022.

“Lockdowns resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic reduced overall energy demand in 2020. However, electricity generation from renewable sources was surprisingly resilient and, as a result, the share of renewables in electricity demand increased in many regions (International Energy Agency 2020). What remains an open question is whether recessions of themselves tend to spur investments in more efficient, greener, energy sources, or instead to continue investing in old coal-based plants. On one hand, the disruption in financing engendered by the crisis may reduce innovation through lower research and development, which is highly procyclical (De Haas et al. 2021). On the other, lower energy demand and associated plant closures brought about by the recession may provide energy producers with an opportunity to improve their efficiency by replacing older environmentally unfriendly plants with renewable sources of energy when demand recovers. The idea that outdated units are destroyed and replaced by newer technological innovations goes back to Joseph A. Schumpeter’s thesis on ‘creative destruction’ (Schumpeter 1939, 1942), with economic disruptions such as the one brought about by the pandemic acting as a time of cleansing (Caballero and Hammour 1994).”

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In a column for the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a Washington DC-based think tank, economist Dean Baker writes on the opportunity for China to invest in clean energy to resolve its “demographic crisis”. An excerpt from the article is as follows.

“As Paul Krugman wrote in a recent column, China is going to have to make a massive adjustment in its economy in the years ahead. It has been spending an incredible 43 percent of its GDP on capital formation, either investment goods purchased by businesses, or residential housing. By comparison, the figure for Japan is 24 percent and for the United States less than 22 percent.

This massive spending on capital formation made sense when China was seeing rapid growth in its labor force and also a huge shift in its population from rural to urban. But this process is now reaching an endpoint, both with a decline in its working-age population and the rural to urban shift largely completed.

It is also important to note that China is already heavily invested in clean energy. China is by far the world leader in solar energy, with more than twice as much as the United States, the second-largest user of solar power. It is also by far the world leader in wind energy, again with more than twice as much installed wind power as the United States. And, China also has more than twice as many electric cars on the road as any other country. This means that China has a large domestic clean energy sector which can stand to gain by further spending on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

If China wants a path through its “demographic crisis,” or, in other words, coping with secular stagnation, devoting substantial resources towards greening its economy would be a great path forward. In the process, they can also give a big hand to the rest of the world, both by sharing the technology and showing how it can be done, as well as reducing the damage they are doing to the planet themselves.”

Source: Baker, D. (2021). CEPR. Combatting Global Warming: The Solution to China’s Demographic “Crisis”.

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This week of the year 2021 is of prime significance for the world as leaders from across countries have gathered in Glasgow, Scotland for the CoP26 summit which is touted to be the biggest environment-based conference after the Paris Summit in 2015.

Besides the heads of states, more than a fifth of the major corporations in the world have pledged to reach the net-zero carbon emissions target by 2030. However, what is striking is how the role of women as climate leaders, investors, and influencers is largely missing from the mainstream discussion on emissions reduction. 

This report draws out interesting parallels between seemingly disparate objectives like climate change and diversity, that corporations must address as part of their journey towards a greener planet. It highlights the influence of greater gender equality on an enterprise’s climate outcomes, by having women in leadership positions to act as changemakers, as low-carbon product influencers, and climate-focused business investors.

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From a new IMF working paper by Nooman Rebei and Rashid Sbia:

“This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus permanent shocks, pointing to the importance of disentangling their distinct effects. Permanent supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements during the most recent decades, while speculative shocks became less influential.”

From Social Europe post by Monique Goyens:

“In the latest contribution to our series on ‘just transition’, Monique Goyens argues that it must address the people finding it hard to pay their energy bills.

The task of moving to a carbon-neutral society is herculean, but the benefits won’t just include saving the planet. There are also long-term economic gains, even for the most hard-up.

An estimated 50 million around the European Union struggle to keep their homes warm and pay their energy bills. Many suffer from the same problems: poorly insulated homes, ill-suited tariffs, insufficient advice on how to save energy or a combination of all three.

The lowest income earners in the EU spend an increasingly large share of their budget on energy—rising from 6 per cent in 2000 to 9 per cent in 2014. In the short term, for this group, it makes more sense to use energy more efficiently than to invest in solar panels, heat pumps or pellet stoves. It will also deliver faster savings.

The choice should not however be between having a warm home and having food on the table. In making their homes more efficient, people consume less energy to heat their living space and can more easily pay their bills.

But getting people to take action can be complex. Those at risk of energy poverty might feel overwhelmed and prioritise solving other problems, such as warmer clothing or food. Often, they might not know what solutions are out there.

For governments and energy advisers to upload advice about insulation to a website isn’t enough. That advice needs to get out to people. Human contact also helps.”

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