The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing market risks – BIS
• Global housing markets shrug off the impact of higher rates – Knight Frank
• Most European Housing Markets to See Modest Price Growth in 2024 – Fitch Ratings
• European mortgage market set for lowest growth in a decade. High rates and inflation and slowing economies have taken their toll on demand, finds EY report – FT
• Asia’s housing market pain: why Japan could be next. China’s property crisis is just one of many signs that Asia’s housing sector troubles are far from over. Japan could be in for a shock if a shift from years of ultra-loose monetary policy pushes up lending rates, hitting home loans hard – South China Morning Post

Working papers and conferences:

• Feeling Rich, Feeling Poor: Housing Wealth Effects and Consumption in Europe – IMF
• Mortgage Debt and the Consumption Response to Fiscal Transfers – FHFA
• The Effect of Land Leverage on House Sale Probability and Price – SSRN
• The Escalating Housing Crisis in Europe: An Inexorable Progression – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• US market distortions put spotlight back on 30-year mortgage debate. Americans love long, fixed-rate loans but they can make homes less affordable for low income earners – FT
• The “Home ATM” Mostly Closed in Q3. Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was low in Q3 – Calculated Risk
• Mortgage rates are sinking, but don’t try to time the housing market by waiting for them to fall further, BofA exec says – Business Insider
• Mortgage Rates in US Fall for Sixth Week, Dropping Closer to 7%. Average for 30-year loans is at lowest level since August. Steeper declines needed to reinvigorate demand, economist says – Bloomberg
• Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO. REO: lender Real Estate Owned – Calculated Risk
• Will House Prices Go Down? Goldman Sachs Gives Housing Market Prediction – Newsweek

On the US—other developments:    

• The Math for Buying a Home No Longer Works. These Charts Show You Why. What does it take to buy a home in the U.S.? A lot more than it did before the Federal Reserve raised interest rates – Wall Street Journal
• New Legislation Proposes to Take Wall Street Out of the Housing Market. A bill introduced in the House and Senate would prevent hedge funds from owning single-family houses in the United States. – New York Times
• US Homebuilding Is Weathering the Fed’s Hikes – Bloomberg
• Housing Markets Facing Greater Risk Of Downturns Clustered In California, New Jersey And Illinois – ATTOM
• Another Housing Crash? These Are the Markets Most at Risk of a Downturn – Realtor.com
• 2023 Has Been The Least Affordable Year for Homebuying on Record—But 2024 Is Looking Up – Redfin
• Remarks by National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard Addressing the Challenge of Housing Affordability At the National Housing Conference – White House 
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November with Comparison to 2019 – Calculated Risk
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December – Calculated Risk
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December – Calculated Risk
• Housing Affordability Conditions Tumble in October 2023 – National Association of Realtors
• Homeowner Mobility Stalls Amid Rising Interest Rates – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Seasonal Influence Eases U.S. Foreclosure Activity, Marking Slight Decline – ATTOM
• Economists: Turnaround in Home Sales Likely in 2024 – National Association of Realtors

On China:

• Country Garden Staves Off Worsening of Debt Crisis With Payment. China developer repaid 800 million yuan note ahead of schedule. Local firm stake exit aimed at helping offshore restructuring – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Australia Will Raise Fees for Foreigners Buying Existing Houses – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Australia to Cut Record High Migration as Housing Crisis Bites. New strategy to bring in skilled workers and control migration. Government says intake will return to pre-pandemic levels – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Australia’s Housing Costs Have Hit New Highs. Officials See Migrants as Part of the Problem. Many newcomers have settled in cities where housing is in short supply, raising concerns about property affordability – Wall Street Journal
• [Australia] Australian Builders Reject Moves to Sting Foreign Investors in Housing – Wall Street Journal
• [Australia] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Australia – BIS
• [Australia] Shifting the needle on the housing crisis: will Chalmers’ plan to slug foreign home buyers be enough? Treasurer has announced plans to triple fees foreigners pay when buying established homes and to double penalties for leaving a property vacant – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australian Property Forecast: What’s In Store For 2024? – Forbes
• [Belgium] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Belgium – BIS
• [Canada] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Canada – BIS
• [Canada] Economic progress report: Immigration, housing and the outlook for inflation – Bank of Canada
• [Canada] Bank of Canada urges removal of barriers to home building to cut inflation – Reuters
• [Canada] Canada Revives Wartime Home Strategy to Address Housing Crisis. Thousands of simple ‘Victory Houses’ built starting in ‘40s. New program to add dense homes such as multiplexes, mid-rises – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Bank Watchdog Keeps Rule That’s Slowing Canada’s Mortgage Market. Regulator holds mortgage qualifying rate at existing level. Canada’s housing market faces decades-low affordability – Bloomberg
• [Canada] ‘A buyers’ market with no buyers’: CIBC economist on housing market – Bloomberg
• [France] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: France – BIS
• [Germany] German Housing Crisis Deepens as Slump in New Orders Hits Record. More home builders report suffering from financial strains. Sector confidence falls further, with no turnaround in sight – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Hong Kong – BIS
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s property pain may soon get real – Reuters
• [India] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: India – BIS
• [Ireland] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Ireland – BIS
• [Ireland] Ireland’s housing crisis is a disaster for its people – and a gift to far-right fearmongers. Decades of skewed policy have led to one of Europe’s worst shortages of affordable homes. Now it is being weaponised against refugees – The Guardian
• [Ireland] House prices across the State rise by 2.3% but Dublin down again. Central Statistics Office index records 0.6% decrease in residential property prices in Dublin, while prices outside Dublin are up by 4.5% – The Irish Times
• [Israel] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Israel – BIS
• [Luxembourg] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Luxembourg – BIS
• [Mexico] ¿Qué factores impactarán en el crédito hipotecario en el 2024? – El Economista
• [Netherlands] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Netherlands – BIS
• [New Zealand] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: New Zealand – BIS
• [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices fall but activity up -REINZ – Reuters
• [Singapore] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: Singapore – BIS
• [Singapore] Singapore Narrows the Gap With Hong Kong on Real Estate Deals – Bloomberg
• [Sweden] Swedish Turn Positive on Home Prices After Benchmark Rate Levels Off – Bloomberg
• [Sweden] Sweden Posts Sharp Home-Price Plunge as Rates Hit Global Markets. The Nordic country logged an 11% decline in the year through September, whereas the global average gained slightly, according to Knight Frank. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK Housing Market Gloom Returns After Unexpected Price Rises. Asking prices fell by an unusually large 1.9% in December. Banking group expects 8% drop in mortgage lending next year – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Fell Sharply in December – Wall Street Journal
• [United Kingdom] Macroprudential policies to mitigate housing. market risks. Country case study: United Kingdom – BIS
• [United Kingdom] Britain needs more houses. Does the industry want to build them? Developers are wary of adding supply to a falling market – The Economist
• [United Kingdom] UK Mortgage Lending Falls Sharply as Arrears Increase, BOE Says. Figures show impact of interest rate hikes on property market. Value of all mortgage loans fell in the third quarter – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK Home Asking Prices Are Down 5% From the Peak. Sellers appear to be waking up to higher interest rates. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK mortgage arrears hit six-year high, data shows. More homeowners struggle to meet payments in third quarter as interest rates remain elevated – FT
• [United Kingdom] Outlook improves for UK housing market, property survey finds. Sales expectations rose in November on the back of easing mortgage rates, Rics data shows – FT