The Unassuming Economist

From a new IMF Regional Economic Outlook on Sub-Saharan Africa

“After nearly two decades of strong growth, average economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa has decelerated sharply, against the backdrop of lower commodity prices, a less-supportive global environment, and, in the hardest-hit countries, a delayed policy response (Chapter 1). However, the full picture is more complex, with considerable heterogeneity across countries. Against this backdrop, two related questions arise: How can growth be revived in the hardest-hit countries? And for countries that are still growing fast, how can growth be sustained?

This chapter tries to answer these questions by examining the growth performance of sub-Saharan African countries through the lens of growth turning points and periods of sustained growth episodes using a sample containing data from 1950 to 2016.1 To that effect, the chapter first documents the stylized facts of growth turning points—defined here as growth accelerations (up-breaks) and decelerations (down-breaks)—and sustained growth episodes (growth spells) across the region and vis-à-vis the rest of the world. The chapter then examines the changes in both the external and domestic environment (including policies) that coincided with turning points in sub-Saharan Africa. Finally, the chapter investigates how some episodes of growth acceleration become periods of sustained growth, and what influences the duration of these episodes.”

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