Housing View – December 6, 2024

IMF’s F&D Magazine on The Economics of Housing:

  • Housing’s Unique Role in Lives and Economies Demands Greater Understanding. Affordability and other complex housing issues challenging governments can be better revealed in broader economic analysis – IMF Blog
  • Walkways, Not Walls. There are benefits to better connecting macroeconomics with real estate economics – F&D
  • The Housing Affordability Crunch. A newly developed dataset shows how the pandemic’s aftermath ushered in the worst housing affordability crisis in more than a decade – F&D
  • Housing Markets and Monetary Policy. Comprehensive, country-specific understanding of housing and mortgage markets can help calibrate monetary policy – F&D
  • The True Cost of Living. Sharply higher borrowing costs, especially for housing, fueled a disconnect between inflation statistics and consumer sentiment – F&D
  • How To Spot Housing Bubbles. Early detection and mitigation can help deflate asset bubbles before they burst – F&D
  • China’s Real Estate Challenge. Sliding property prices may presage a painful economic adjustment – F&D
  • Are Housing Markets Broken? Many people aspire to own their own home, but it’s becoming increasingly unaffordable – F&D
  • Falling Out of Favor. Some countries are turning against foreign buyers as soaring property prices become political – F&D
  • São Paulo Reclaims Its Center. Brazil’s megalopolis combines federal and municipal programs to retrofit buildings in the downtown area – F&D
  • Housing Africa’s Growing Population. Deeper understanding of informality and better use of technology can build more sustainable housing markets – F&D
  • Housing Costs Mount. A look at rising housing cost trend – F&D
  • Hidden Fortunes. How dirty money distorts real estate markets – F&D


Working papers and conferences:


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Housing Forecast 2025: Mortgage Rates To Stay Above 6% as Home Prices Grow – Realtor.com
  • Trump may renew a housing fight that could rattle mortgage rates – CNN
  • US Mortgage Rates Decline to 6.69%, Lowest Since Mid-October – Bloomberg
  • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in October; Up 3.7% Year-over-year. 18 of the 35 cities with largest price declines are in Florida! – Calculated Risk
  • US Home Price Insights – December 2024 – CoreLogic
  • CoreLogic: Annual Home Price Growth Stalls in October – CoreLogic
  • Can rent control have adverse effects on housing affordability? – Econofact
  • Giant homebuilders are taking over the housing market—just look at Lennar. Giant homebuilder Lennar recently announced it is acquiring competitor Rausch Coleman Homes, accelerating a housing market trend. – Fast Company
  • New York City Rental Report October 2024: What Home Can a Manhattan Renter Afford Across the U.S.? – Realtor.com
  • Pro Take: A Trump Deportation Plan Could Have Mixed Impact on Still-Hot Housing Inflation. Construction worker shortages and falling numbers of renters in some areas could both influence housing prices – Wall Street Journal
  • Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.4% Below 2022 Peak. Price-to-rent index is 8.1% below 2022 peak – Calculated Risk
  • Private Residential Construction Spending Rises in October – NAHB
  • These local housing markets are shifting—just look at inventory. Some housing markets in the Southwest and Southeast are weakening, while others in the Midwest, Northeast, and Southern California remain tight. – Fast Company
  • Construction Labor Market Continues to Ease NAHB
  • Where Residential Construction Thrives: Metro Area Hotspots for Jobs and Businesses – NAHB


On the US—other developments:    

  • Home builders are cheering Trump’s return to the White House. Companies are eager for lighter regulations. But they also could see their industry strained by tariffs and immigration changes. – Washington Post
  • Donald Trump’s Second Term Could Bring ‘Significant Shifts’ to the Housing Market – Realtor.com
  • This Old House? Home Buyers’ Best Deals Are on Builders’ Lots. The premium that buyers usually have to pay for a brand-new house is disappearing – Wall Street Journal
  • Housing Becoming Unaffordable for First-Time Homebuyers – Apollo Academy
  • The Unsung Power Players of Real Estate: How Gen X Carves Up a Significant Slice of the Market – Realtor.com
  • Construction Industry Braces for One-Two Punch: Tariffs and Deportations. Trump’s immigration and trade policies put home builders in a vulnerable position – Wall Street Journal
  • Housing Cost Burdens Climb to Record Levels (Again) in 2023 – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
  • The Mysteries of Cities and Economic Growth – AEI


On Australia and New Zealand:

  • [Australia] An Overview Of Australia’s Housing Market And Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities – S&P Global
  • [Australia] Tight supply and lower interest rates to lift Australia home prices – Reuters poll – Reuters
  • [Australia] How far house prices have soared above fair value – The Sydney Morning Herald
  • [Australia] Australian Home Prices Rise at Weakest Pace in Almost Two Years – Bloomberg
  • [Australia] Rate cuts won’t stimulate a big upswing in house prices: CoreLogic – Financial Review
  • [Australia] Aussie capital cities where house prices are falling and booming: ‘Wealth effect’ – Yahoo Finance
  • [Australia] Australia’s housing market loses steam with prices falling in Sydney and Melbourne. More houses for sale in country’s two biggest cities in November than there were at this time of year since 2018 – The Guardian
  • [Australia] Why it’s the least worst time to buy a home in three years – The Sydney Morning Herald
  • [Australia] How Much Further Will Sydney and Melbourne House Prices Fall? – Bloomberg
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Fell a Ninth Straight Month in November – Bloomberg
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand home prices to rise modestly in coming two years: Reuters poll – Reuters


On other countries:  

  • [Canada] Toronto Housing Sales Climb With Buyers Flocking Back to Market. Benchmark price measure increased for a second-straight month. Real estate board president says stage is set for recovery – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Home builders are only part of the solution to the housing crisis – The Globe and Mail
  • [Denmark] Why being close to a cycle network can boost house prices – The Conversation
  • [France] Paris joins clampdown on holiday apartment rentals, blamed for housing shortage. French capital takes advantage of new law to curb apartment rentals to tourists. Officials say practice limits housing supply for residents – South China Morning Post
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s property slump may be terminal. Demographics and geopolitics will make a recovery harder – The Economist
  • [Ireland] Paul McNeive: Has increased housing supply come in time to save the Government? – Irish Independent
  • [Ireland] ‘Nothing can be built’: Northern Ireland sewage crisis hits housing construction. Property prices surge as 19,000 homes are left on hold due to lack of wastewater services – FT
  • [Norway] Norway Cuts Home Loan Equity Need to Help First-Time Buyers – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] House prices and sales across UK expected to rise in early 2025. Buyers seeking to benefit from expiring tax breaks and pent-up demand predicted to drive up costs, according to Zoopla report – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] UK Home Prices Rise by Most Since March 2022, Lender Says. Average 1.2% price in November far exceeded expectations. Wage gains helping to support buyer interest, Nationwide says – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise at fastest rate in nearly two years. Nationwide reports surprise growth despite near-record prices straining affordability – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] UK Housebuilding Falls Most in Five Months in Wake of Budget – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Why London’s property market is stagnating. The capital is stuck in a rut; digging itself out is not going to be easy — or cheap – FT

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Home

Subscribe to: Posts