Working papers and conferences:
- Do Housing Supply Skeptics Learn? Evidence from Economics and Advocacy Treatments – SSRN
- NAR Settlement, House Prices, and Consumer Welfare – SSRN
- House prices react rapidly to rates shocks – BIS paper. Monetary policy transmission stronger in US property market than previously thought, study argues – Central Banking
On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:
- Mortgage Rates Puzzle Is a Worry for Housing and the Fed. The conventional logic of lower borrowing costs stimulating home purchases and household spending may not quite apply this time around. – Bloomberg
- Mortgage Rates Plunge to 6.2% in More ‘Forgiving and Flexible’ Housing Market – Realtor.com
- Trump Allies Are Working on Plans to Privatize Fannie and Freddie. A deal would call for the government to try to sell a chunk of its holdings in the mortgage giants to investors, including sovereign-wealth funds – Wall Street Journal
- Rent controls will not deter housing investment, US mega-landlord says. Greystar chief says caps need not stop institutional investors funding new homes – FT
- Mortgage payments fall lower than rent in 22 of the 50 largest US metros – Zillow
- New Study on How to Address Public Ignorance About Housing Policy. New data shows that “housing supply skeptics” can be persuaded by evidence showing that allowing more construction reduces prices. But not clear this is a good road map for addressing the problem of public ignorance in the real world. – Reason
- Apartment Construction Time Averaged 20 Months in 2023 – NAHB
- Single-Family Permits Up in July 2024 – NAHB
- The “Home ATM” Mostly Closed in Q2. Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Slightly Positive in Q2 – Calculated Risk
- Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2024 – Calculated Risk
- 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in August 2024 – Calculated Risk
- Rate drops, more inventory add intrigue to housing ‘offseason’ – Zillow
- Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Sept. 7, 2024 – Realtor.com
- Single-Family Starts Up in August but Supply-Side Issues Linger – NAHB
- US single-family homebuilding rebounds, rising supply could limit momentum – Reuters
- Existing Home Sales on Pace to Hit Nearly 30-Year Low, Despite Recently Lower Rates. Mortgage Rates Now Forecast to Average 5.7% by End of 2025 – Fannie Mae
- Further Declines in Mortgage Rates Needed to Address Affordability and Spur Home Sales – Fannie Mae
- Strong August New Construction Activity Means More Options for Buyers This Fall. – Realtor.com
- Price Growth for Inputs to Residential Construction Slows in August – NAHB
- US Housing Starts Increase to Fastest Pace Since April. New construction rose 9.6% in August to 1.36 million pace. Gain due to more one-family home starts; permits also climbed – Bloomberg
On the US—other developments:
- Kamala Harris’s Down-Payment Boost Isn’t for Buying Houses. The logic is political. – Wall Street Journal
- Why Harris and Trump can’t stop talking about housing – Axios
- Making housing more affordable: Issues at stake in the 2024 election – Brookings
- Why a Fed Rate Cut Won’t Solve the Housing Wealth Gap. With home prices near record highs and cost of home insurance and property taxes rising, affordability remains an issue – Wall Street Journal
- Is America’s housing crisis determining how you vote this November? – CNN
- Nearly Half of Renter Households Are Cost-Burdened, Proportions Differ by Race – US Census Bureau
- 4 Ways Trump’s Housing Policies Could Affect Middle-Class Homebuyers – Yahoo Finance
- The Market Alone Can’t Fix the U.S. Housing Crisis. Any plan to overhaul the housing market needs to, first, confront the power of landlords to raise rents. Second, it requires rethinking public governance of housing markets behind simplistic prescriptions to just free the housing market from government regulation, assuming lower rents will follow. And third, it needs to provide more muscular government involvement in housing, through price regulation, more robust planning, and even direct public provision. – Harvard Business Review
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Tina Smith: Our Solution to the Housing Crisis – New York Times
- Social Housing Goes to Washington. With the newly introduced Homes Act, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is pushing legislation to create the next generation of decommodified, dignified homes, including public housing and co-ops. – Jacobin
- Why the Pro-Housing ‘Yimby’ Movement Is Wading Into the Election. Harris’s proposal to build millions more homes draws fans among ‘Yes in My Backyard’ activists – Wall Street Journal
- Selling in Jacksonville Is Rough Going—Unless Your Home Costs Millions. Mortgage rates have created a ‘Jekyll and Hyde market,’ where sales of nonluxury properties have declined while the high end thrives – Wall Street Journal
- The Week in Review. Week of Sept 9 — Housing sentiment sags, Prices plod – Home Economics
- These Millionaires Can Afford Their Dream Home. They’re Renting Instead. The rise in wealthy renters reflects how the calculus around homeownership has changed in the U.S. – Wall Street Journal
- Q2 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO. REO: lender Real Estate Owned – Calculated Risk
- Flipping Was Big After the Housing Crisis of 2008 … But Is It Still a Path to Profits? – ATTOM
- Builder Sentiment Rises as Rates Fall but Affordability Challenges Persist – NAHB
- New Construction Insights: Newly-Built Homes Becoming Smaller, More Affordable – Realtor.com
- Incentivizing Housing That Is Affordable, Sustainable, and Transit-Accessible. Reforming existing federal programs to expand the supply of affordable, sustainable, and transit-accessible housing will provide millions of Americans with a stable foundation for economic success. – Center for American Progress
- Building Opportunity: Expanding Housing in America by Reforming Local Land Use. Reducing regulatory barriers to housing production can unleash new supply and serve as an important complement to federal, state, and local programs that provide direct subsidies for low-income housing construction and maintenance. – Center for American Progress
On China:
- China’s Falling House Prices an Expected Adjustment as Economy Develops, Says Analyst – Caixin
- China to Cut Rates on $5 Trillion Mortgages as Soon as September. Some banks are making final preparations for rate adjustments. Move may spur household consumption, hurt bank profitability – Bloomberg
On Australia and New Zealand
- [Australia] Housing is eating the economy in countless ways. Australia’s housing woes are causing policymakers, investors and households to make decisions they might not ordinarily make. But to fix it, we need to escape a vicious cycle. – Financial Review
- [Australia] Home ownership in Australia has been in retreat for decades. How does it stack up against other countries? Many OECD countries have experienced similar patterns of declining homeowner numbers – and ageing populations are projected to drive the rate even lower – The Guardian
- [Australia] House price growth to soften as spring swings in favour of buyers – Financial Review
- [Australia] Australia Struggles to Solve Housing Crisis as Politicians Scrap – Bloomberg
- [Australia] Coalition plan to give first home buyers access to super would benefit ‘those who already own housing’. Saul Eslake report finds plan would cause Australian property prices to rise at a faster rate – The Guardian
- [Australia] The severity of Australia’s housing affordability crisis is obvious – this is how politicians could fix it. Affordability is too important to allow this status quo to continue. Housing underpins our economy and our society – The Guardian
- [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices rise on month, more confidence in market, survey says – Reuters
On other countries:
- [Canada] Canada relaxes some mortgage rules to tackle housing crisis – Reuters
- [Canada] Government announces boldest mortgage reforms in decades to unlock homeownership for more Canadians – Government of Canada
- [Canada] Waiting for lower interest rates? Why variable-rate mortgage borrowers may see disappointing discounts – Globe and Mail
- [Canada] Canada’s mortgage stress test is hurting the buyers it was meant to protect – Globe and Mail
- [Canada] Canada’s ‘Mortgage Wall’ Worries Are Easing as Rate Outlook Shifts – Bloomberg
- [Canada] Canadian housing starts tumble 22% in August – Reuters
- [India] House Prices in India – How High, and for How Long? – CSEP
- [Ireland] Dublin house prices surpass Celtic Tiger peak – BBC
- [Israel] Israeli inflation picks up more than forecast as travel costs and home prices soar. Consumer prices accelerated to 3.6% in August, the highest level since October, reducing the odds that the central bank will cut high borrowing costs in the coming months – The Times of Israel
- [Norway] Norges Bank Survey Shows Activity Holding Up, Cooling Rate Bets – Bloomberg
- [Portugal] Portugal launches new $2.22-bln package to counter housing crisis – Reuters
- [Singapore] Singapore Home Sales Plunge Again Due to Lack of Supply – Bloomberg
- [Singapore] Singapore Home Sales Set for Worst Year Since Financial Crisis. Standoff between developers and homebuyers is slowing market. Property consultants slashed 2024 forecasts after weak August – Bloomberg
- [Slovenia] Housing market challenges and policy options – OECD
- [Spain] Strong demand and short supply shape Spain’s real estate sector. The rapid growth of Spain’s real estate market in terms of demand and prices during the first half of the year has led us to revise upwards our forecasts for the Spanish real estate sector for 2024 and 2025. However, strong demand and short supply will determine the sector’s behaviour. – Caixa Bank
- [United Kingdom] Clubonomics: could a nearby members’ club influence your property’s prospects? These elite retreats are on the rise globally. But whether or not you pay the joining fee, their influence is stretching beyond the gates in myriad ways – FT
- [United Kingdom] As Mortgage Rates Dip, UK House Prices Are Rising Again. Lower interest rates are encouraging more activity in the UK property market. – Bloomberg
- [United Kingdom] The 40-year mortgage – solution to rising property values or too high a price to pay? Deals that last four decades can help some get on the property ladder, but the overall cost may be a shock – The Guardian
- [United Kingdom] London’s high-end property market cools on worries about tax hit – Reuters