US Housing View – June 27, 2025

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

  • U.S. Home Price Growth Cools to Near-Two-Year Low. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 2.7% in the 12 months to April – Wall Street Journal
  • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.7% year-over-year in April –Calculated Risk
  • Housing market at risk of “sustained downturn” as price growth cools – Axios
  • Mapping Home Price Changes – New York Fed
  • Housing market map: Zillow just released its updated home price forecast for 400-plus housing markets. Zillow projects that U.S. home prices will fall 0.7% from May 2025 to May 2026. – Fast Company
  • These 96 housing markets are seeing falling home prices. Among the 300 largest metro-area housing markets, these 96 markets are seeing falling home prices on a year-over-year basis. – Fast Company
  • What Trump’s Bomb Strike on Iran Means for Mortgage Rates in the US – Realtor.com


On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

  • Housing market weakness triggers Lennar to offer biggest incentives since 2009. There is a consensus among major publicly traded homebuilders that the spring 2025 housing market was softer than expected. – Fast Company
  • Single-family Construction Loan Volume Grows – NAHB
  • Home Prices Stay Steady as Buyers Take Their Time – Realtor.com
  • Buyer’s or seller’s housing market? Zillow’s new rating for 250 major markets. Where home sellers—and home buyers—have the most power right now, according to Zillow’s updated analysis released in June. – Fast Company
  • Real USA Home Prices Flat for 1 Year & 19% Above 2006 Peak – Real Estate Decoded
  • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.03 million SAAR in May; Down 0.7% YoY. Median House Prices Increased 1.3% Year-over-Year – Calculated Risk
  • Existing Home Sales Edge Higher in May – NAHB
  • New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May. Median New Home Price is Down 7% from the Peak due to Change in Mix – Calculated Risk
  • California Home Sales “Sputter” in May; 4th Look at Local Markets. California Active Inventory Highest Reached 67-Month High – Calculated Risk
  • Home Sales Stay Sluggish in May as Mortgage Rates and Uncertainty Weigh on Market – Realtor.com
  • Home Sales Rose in May, but Housing Market Is Still Sluggish. Existing-home sales edge up 0.8%, ending two-month streak of declines – Wall Street Journal
  • U.S. New Home Sales Slump as High Mortgage Rates Persist. Sales of new single-family homes fell 13.7% to 623,000 in May – Wall Street Journal
  • How Small Apartments in Big Buildings Became the US Norm. To what extent was the construction boom a product of the sometimes-perverse incentives and disincentives facing developers? – Bloomberg
  • Homeownership: Not Enough Supply for Middle-Income Buyers. For teachers, nurses and other skilled workers, few options. – New York Times
  • California Democrats wage internal war over Gavin Newsom’s late push to build more housing. Governor is drawing heavy resistance to his housing development proposal. – Politico


On other developments:    

  • Interactive Tool Charts Pandemic Homebuying Trends – San Francisco Fed
  • The State of the Nation’s Housing 2025 – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
  • Unease in the Housing Market Amid a Worsening Affordability Crisis – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
  • Zohran Mamdani’s policies will (mostly) not bring abundance to NYC. Progressive ideas still try to defy economic realities. – Noahpinion
  • Is U.S. Lumber Self-Reliance Possible? – NAHB
  • Institutional Investors Aren’t the Villains of America’s Housing Market – National Review
  • More Homeowners Find Themselves Underwater. Some who bought around the market peak in pandemic boomtowns owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth – Wall Street Journal
  • Buyers in the Priciest Housing Markets Need 80% Down To Afford Monthly Costs – Realtor.com
  • Thoughts on the Big, Fascinating, Exciting Mamdani Upset! The affordability crisis is real. Mamdani’s offering solutions where others, including the president, not only have nothing, but are making it worse. – Jared Bernstein 
  • New York’s Housing Crisis Is So Bad That a Socialist Is Poised to Become Mayor. Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old who campaigned on rent freezes, emerged victorious in the city’s Democratic primary – Wall Street Journal
  • Will Zohran Mamdani’s Housing Plan Actually Work in New York City? – Realtor.com
  • On Housing, All New York Politicians Are Socialists. Allegedly sane, centrist opponents of New York City’s socialist mayoral candidate are all too happy to regulate rental housing into the ground. – Reason
  • New Yorkers Vote to Make Their Housing Shortage Worse. Austin, Texas, and other red-state cities have set an example for how to make housing markets work – New York Times
  • A New Rail Line May Come to New York. Will a Housing Boom Follow? The Interborough Express, a rail line connecting Brooklyn and Queens, could spur the building of tens of thousands of homes. Obstacles await. – New York Times
  • Elevated Rates, Challenging Affordability Conditions Put a Damper on New Home Sales – NAHB
  • Housing market at risk of “sustained downturn” as price growth cools – Axios
  • Confronting the affordable-housing crisis – McKinsey
  • Why Do Republicans Support the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit? Publicly funded homes in some cities are costing taxpayers more than $1 million per unit, but Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” would increase funding for these inefficient projects. – Reason
  • San Francisco’s Luxury Housing Market Is Booming Again Thanks to AI Wealth. A new report from Sotheby’s International Realty says the top end of the market has undergone a renaissance. – Bloomberg
  • Affordability Crisis Worsens as Home Prices Hit ‘Shocking’ New High—5 Times What the Typical Household Earns – Realtor.com
  • Where Are the Least Competitive Housing Markets? – Zillow
  • Housing Department to Move Headquarters, Booting National Science Foundation. The plan to depart Washington and take over the science agency building in Virginia raised questions about where N.S.F. employees would go. – New York Times

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

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