The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Cheol-Keun Cho and Myunghyun Kim:

“We consider a proxy FAVAR (Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression) model to analyze the
impact of an oil supply news shock on the Korean economy. To identify an oil supply news shock, we
use the variation in oil futures prices around OPEC production announcements as a proxy. Moreover, we
include a factor that captures the common movement of many Korean macro variables such as various
price indices and investment. The estimation results of the proxy FAVAR model show that an oil supply
news shock increases the real oil price and the US CPI, and decreases world oil production and US GDP.
As for Korean macro variables, GDP and net exports fall and CPI increases in response to the shock.”