Housing View – February 21, 2025

On cross-country:

  • What next for Europe’s second homes market? – FT


Working papers and conferences:

  • Institutional Investors and House Prices – European Central Bank
  • Interest Rates and Nonbank Market Share in the U.S. Mortgage Market. Differences in business models help explain how banks gain market share from nonbanks when interest rates are high. – Kansas City Fed
  • Do Mortgage Borrowing Experiences Differ by Race and Ethnicity? Evidence from the National Survey of Mortgage Originations – Philadelphia Fed
  • Do Landlords Respond to Wage Policy? Estimating the Minimum Wage Effect on Apartment Rent Prices – FED
  • Monetary transmission through the housing sector – Bank of England
  • An Alpha in Affordable Housing? – NBER
  • 4th Workshop on Residential Housing: Balancing Sustainability and Affordability in the Building Sector – University of Zurich


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Higher Rents Are Coming If Interest Rates Don’t Budge. An expected drop in US apartment supply has landlords planning hikes. – Bloomberg
  • Residential Construction Input Prices Increase to Start the Year – NAHB
  • Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low – Calculated Risk
  • Fed Chair Warns High-Risk States Could Become Mortgage Deserts in as Little as 10 Years—Making Homeownership Impossible – Realtor.com
  • Is Moving In With Parents and Assuming Their Mortgage an Easy Path to Homeownership? – Realtor.com 
  • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 – Calculated Risk
  • 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January – Calculated Risk
  • Mortgage Rates Slide to 6.87%, Foreshadowing Stronger Housing Demand—Despite Worryingly High Inflation Report – Realtor.com
  • Single-Family Permits End 2024 with Strong Momentum – NAHB
  • Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January – Calculated Risk  
  • Construction Self-Employment Stable at 23% NAHB
  • Builder Confidence Falls on Tariff and Housing Cost Concerns – NAHB
  • January 2025 Hottest Housing Markets – Realtor.com
  • The “Neutral” Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates – Calculated Risk
  • New homes. My short term outlook for new housing starts – Matusik Missive
  • NAHB Housing Sentiment Flounders, the Market Needs Lower Mortgage Rates – Mish Talk
  • Housing Starts Retreat at the Start of 2025 – NAHB
  • Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January – Calculated Risk
  • Less Than One-Third of U.S. Home Purchases Were Made With Cash in 2024, a 3-Year Low – Redfin
  • Zombie Foreclosures Remain a Small Fraction of U.S. Housing Inventory in First Quarter of 2025 – ATTOM
  • Single-Family Built-for-Rent Construction Falls Back – NAHB  
  • Completions Accelerate While Starts Slow in Mixed Results of January New-Construction Activity – Realtor.com
  • Frigid temperatures chill US single-family homebuilding; tariffs a potential drag – Reuters
  • Families Must Spend 38% of Their Income on Mortgage Payments – NAHB


On the US—other developments:    

  • America’s Most Exclusive Suburbs Are Finally Building More Housing. States—and even historic towns like Lexington, Massachusetts—are easing real estate zoning to fight the affordability crisis. Will local support for the Yimby crowd last? – Bloomberg
  • Solutions: Here’s how the Trump administration can curb housing costs – Los Angeles Times
  • Elon Musk’s DOGE sends a chill through the housing market. The Trump administration is laying off 40% of FHA workers – Quartz
  • Credit for Builders Tightens, Cost Results Mixed – NAHB
  • YIMBYs Should Prioritze Parking Reform. This one weird trick builds lots of housing, and maybe lots of power – Cornerstone  
  • How Zoning Ruined the Housing Market in Blue-State America. For a century, progressives have been making it harder to build new homes in prosperous areas. Workers, immigrants and the economy pay the price. – Wall Street Journal
  • Mapped: Median Home Prices in States With Booming Growth – Realtor.com
  • Across the West, a pitch to lower housing costs: Sell federal land. The issue is top of mind in Las Vegas, which could run out of room to build more homes in just seven years. – Washington Post
  • A Proven Way to Ease L.A.’s Housing Crisis. States around the country are showing Southern California how to rebuild. – The Atlantic
  • Forget Office Conversions. Cities Are Turning Old Hospitals Into Residential Housing. Ideal locations are typically on prime real estate near city infrastructure with built-in amenities – Wall Street Journal
  • The United States Doesn’t Have a Housing Crisis. It Has Three. – M Nolan Gray
  • Viral posts sow panic over D.C. housing market under Trump. They’re wrong. Social media posts on X and other platforms are gushing about a regional housing market collapse amid federal layoffs. Real estate experts say it’s all untrue. – Washington Post


On China:

  • China Home Prices Show Slight Improvement But Remain in Decline. Average home prices in the 70 cities surveyed dropped 0.07% from the prior month – Wall Street Journal
  • China’s leaders look to have blinked in their property face-off. They did not want to bail out indebted firms. Now they are on the verge of doing so – The Economist


On Australia and New Zealand:

  • [Australia] Australia to put two-year ban on foreigners buying existing homes amid housing crunch – Reuters
  • [Australia] Australia slaps 2-year ban on foreigners buying existing homes as prices soar. The restriction would likely free up around 1,800 properties per year for local buyers – South China Morning Post
  • [Australia] Australia to ban foreigners from buying some homes as costs soar – The Straits Times
  • [Australia] Australia’s HOUSING CRISIS was just an inflation pulse. It is over. Poof! Just like that, the housing crisis is over. Or will falling rents and prices be the next crisis? – Fresh Economic Thinking
  • [Australia] Australia Housing to Stay Sluggish After RBA Cut, Stockland Says – Bloomberg


On other countries:  

  • [Argentina] Javier Milei Ended Rent Control. Now the Argentine Real Estate Market Is Coming Back to Life. Milei’s deregulation demonstrates that removing government from voluntary transactions can benefit both sides. – Cato Institute
  • [Canada] Canadian housing starts rise 3% in January, CMHC says – Reuters
  • [Hong Kong] Is major trouble brewing for Hong Kong’s housing market? Not so fast. While financial distress is apparent, the risks must be put into context. The city’s woes are more externally driven than home-grown – South China Morning Post
  • [United Kingdom] Labor to ban foreign investors from buying existing homes for at least two years, replicating Coalition policy. Critics cast doubt on effectiveness of policy, citing low volume of purchases by overseas buyers, as Labor seeks to improve housing affordability – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] UK housing market debt falls as older generations pay off mortgages. Fewer first time buyers have been able to get on housing ladder, Savills data shows – FT
  • [United Kingdom] U.K. House Prices Rose Slightly in February Ahead of Tax Increase. Sellers appear to be recognizing higher costs for buyers, with looming stamp duty changes and high competition – Wall Street Journal
  • [United Kingdom] Understanding UK Housing Market Dynamics – National Institute of Economic and Social Research
  • [United Kingdom] The Guardian view on new housing: Labour must not let builders dictate terms. The lack of affordable homes to buy and rent is a serious injustice. Ministers must fight for plans that put people first – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] UK housing market starts to feel the drag from tax change, Rightmove says – Reuters
  • [United Kingdom] London House Prices Failed to Grow in 2024. Average home value in British capital stagnated at £549,000. Slowdown hitting hard in super-prime areas like Kensington – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise by most in nearly two years, ONS says – Reuters
  • [United Kingdom] London registers zero house price growth for 2024. ‘Stark’ divergence between UK capital and rest of country comes as affordability pressures weigh on buyers – FT  

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

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