Housing View – October 4, 2024

On cross-country:

  • The house-price supercycle is just getting going. Why property prices could keep rising for years – The Economist
  • House prices and rents went up in Q2 2024 – Eurostat
  • House prices up by 1.3% in the euro area – Eurostat
  • Eurozone house prices rise for first time in more than a year. Annual increase of 1.3% in second quarter points to gradual recovery of region’s housing market – FT
  • The housing crisis is global. What are other countries doing about it? Australia is not the only country facing a housing crisis. Alan Kohler takes us on a whistle-stop tour of five governments trying to make homes more affordable – The Guardian


Working papers and conferences:

  • Racial Differences in the Total Rate of Return on Owner-Occupied Housing – SSRN
  • Disaster Risk and Rising Home Insurance Premiums – NBER
  • Psychological Effects of Air Pollution: Evidence from House Viewings – SSRN
  •  Did Brexiteers Get What They Voted for? Evidence from the Housing Market – SSRN
  • Why higher house prices lead to higher borrowing. The UK housing market has experienced a dramatic rise in house prices and mortgage debt over recent decades, both of which have outpaced average income growth. New research shows that much of the increase in mortgage debt can be attributed to homebuyers being compelled to borrow more in order to afford adequately sized homes. – LSE


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • US Home Price Insights –  October 2024 – CoreLogic
  • Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Ticked Up in August – Calculated Risk
  • US housing market: Home prices climb to new record high in July – S&P Global
  • Final Look at Local Housing Markets in August and a Look Ahead to September Sales – Calculated Risk
  • Mortgage Rates Continue Downward Trend in September – NAHB
  • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in August; Up 3.7% Year-over-year. Over the last 6 months, the seasonal adjusted index has increased at a 1.5% annual rate – Calculated Risk
  • Private Residential Construction Spending Falls for Third Straight Month – NAHB
  • FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores – Calculated Risk
  • Refinancing Activity Continues to Climb in September – NAHB
  • Majority of Americans Still Feel Locked in by Mortgage Rates—With More Than Half of Borrowers’ Rates Below 4% – realtor.com
  • 84% of Outstanding Mortgage Debt has a Sub-6% Rate – realtor.com
  • September 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – realtor.com


On the US—other developments:    

  • Edward Glaeser on Zoning, Land Use Regulation, and Urban Economics – Hoover Institution
  • How We Unintentionally Created the Affordable Housing Crisis – New York Times
  • Making housing more affordable – Brookings
  • Miami Housing Is Expensive. Just Don’t Call It a Bubble. The Florida city tops this year’s UBS ranking of global cities with elevated home prices. But the market’s fundamentals may not be as weak as they seem. – Bloomberg
  • Housing market shift: Here’s where homebuyers are gaining power fast. Buyers have gained some leverage in most resale markets over the past year, with some markets even becoming buyer’s markets. – Fast Company
  • In Las Vegas, housing could make or break the battle for the White House. Nevada, once known for its low living costs, has seen house prices soar and rents climb – can Trump take advantage? – The Guardian
  • In a Florida Town Ravaged by Storms, Homeowners All Want to Sell. Ballooning home insurance costs and the perennial threat of violent storms hit Tampa Bay housing market hard – Wall Street Journal
  • The San Diego infinite housing glitch. How a bonus ADU program allows ‘granny towers’ in gardens – The Work in Progress Newsletter
  • That Luxury Home Comes With an Ocean View—and Surging Insurance Costs. A lot of high-end real estate is in parts of the country that have become hotbeds for climate disasters in recent years – Wall Street Journal
  • J.D. Vance Actually Does Understand How Costs Get Passed Along the Supply Chain. Vance says higher energy prices make building houses more costly. What, then, do tariffs on steel and lumber do? – Reason
  • Three Principles for a Rental Assistance Guarantee – Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
  • Housing is having a moment. It’s not enough to fix wildfire insurance – Politico  


On China:

  • China Developers Offer Deals Betting Home Prices Will Hit Bottom. Moves come as policymakers unveil aggressive housing stimulus. Biggest builder to give refunds if prices drop after purchase – Bloomberg
  • China announces new measures to arrest housing slump and boost growth. Benefits to rise for poorest and local authorities to be given powers to intervene in real estate markets – The Guardian
  • China’s Politburo Supercharges Stimulus With Housing, Rates Vows. Politburo calls for measures to stop property market decline. Pledge to ensure fiscal spending among steps signaling urgency – Bloomberg
  • Can China’s stimulus bazooka repair confidence, income deficit in housing market? Fitch analyst sees more support measures next quarter to ensure Beijing’s latest stimulus bazooka achieves its aims – South China Morning Post
  • China Moves to Cut Mortgage Rates to Revive Housing Market – Bloomberg
  • China Removes Curbs on Home Buyers, Sparking Stock Market Surge. After seeing prices decline for years, Chinese officials have made a burst of policy changes aimed at making it easier to buy homes. – New York Times
  • China’s Housing Glut Collides With Its Shrinking Population. Many cities are stuck with empty homes that they will likely never fill, adding to the country’s economic woes – Wall Street Journal


On Australia and New Zealand

  • [Australia] Downsizing Baby Boomers Face Apartment Shortages in Sydney – Bloomberg
  • [New Zealand] House prices will stop falling soon – Corelogic – RNZ
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Continue to Retreat Despite Rate Cuts – Market Watch
  • [New Zealand] Rate cuts haven’t pumped up house prices yet – Core Logic


On other countries:  

  • [Canada] In Canada’s hot small-city housing markets, rent-to-own is on the rise – Globe and Mail
  • [Canada] Toronto Home Prices Fall for Second Month as New Listings Surge. Buyers are gaining more negotiating power, market analyst says. Economists expect central bank to continue to lower its rate – Bloomberg
  • [Denmark] Denmark faces EU court questions on housing policy, racism – Reuters
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong needs to fix its student housing supply. The private student accommodation market shows great potential, but repurposing existing properties will only go so far to satisfy growing demand – South China Morning Post
  • [Ireland] House prices in Dublin rise 8.4% over past 12 months. Property advisers DNG expect resale market in the capital to reach 9% in 2024 – The Irish Times
  • [Ireland] House prices are now 37% higher than at start of Covid pandemic in 2020. Prices rise 3% in third quarter as shortage of second-hand homes for sale bites, according to Daft report – The Irish Times
  • [Korea] Seoul’s Apartment Market Cools More Ahead of BOK Rate Decision – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK Home Price Rise Most Since February, Nationwide Says. Mortage lender’s gauge shows market bounced back in September. Mortgage approvals rise to highest level since September 2022 – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices hit highest annual growth since 2022. Nationwide says yearly rise in house prices increased by 3.2% in September putting the average home at £266,094 – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Yimbys hear this – simply building more homes won’t solve our housing crisis. The ‘yes in my back yard’ voices are getting louder, but housebuilding quality is more important than quantity – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] The Recovering UK Housing Market: Who Benefits? Prices and sales are rising. That’s good news for a wide range of sectors, not just builders. – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] U.K. Home Sales Soar as Mortgage Rates Ease. September’s agreed sales were 25% higher on year – Wall Street Journal
  • [United Kingdom] UK house sales rise at fastest pace in three years, data shows. Lower interest rates spur rise in buyer demand in September, says Zoopla – FT

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

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