Housing View – October 25, 2024

On cross-country:



Working papers and conferences:

  • Event: 13th Annual Housing Center Conference on November 21 – AEI
  • The housing consumption channel of mortgage demand – VoxEU
  • Housing markets in Portugal and Spain: Fundamentals, overvaluation and shocks – Banco de Portugal
  • Understanding Spatial House Price Dynamics in a Housing Boom – SSRN
  • Prime Locations, Hidden Costs: Measuring the Impact of Amazon Distribution Centers on Housing Prices – SSRN 
  • Do Housing Supply Skeptics Learn? Evidence from Economics and Advocacy Treatments – SSRN
  • Monetary Policy and Racial Inequality in Housing Markets – SSRN
  • The Racial Dynamics of U.S. Neighborhoods and Their Housing Prices from 1950 Through 1990 – SSRN



On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Why Mortgage Rates Went Up After the Fed’s Big Cut. What’s the link between benchmark rates and home loans? – Bloomberg
  • Mortgage Rates Surge, Putting a Damper on Home Buying and Refinancing – Realtor.com
  • Redfin Reports Rising Mortgage Rates Haven’t Yet Slowed Pending Sales – Redfin 
  • Mortgage rates were supposed to come down. Instead, they’re rising. Here’s why – NPR
  • Mortgage Rates Rise to 6.44%, Yet ‘Buyers May Be Feeling Ready To Act’ – Realtor.com 
  • Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – October 2024 | Spotlight: First-Time Homebuyers – Freddie Mac
  • Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey – Fannie Mae
  • Home Sales on Track for Worst Year Since 1995. September sales fell 3.5% from a year earlier. In 2023, home sales hit their lowest point in 30 years. – Wall Street Journal
  • 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in September – Calculated Risk
  • Housing Starts Decreased to 1.354 million Annual Rate in September – Calculated Risk
  • Single-Family Starts Trend Higher in September – NAHB
  • Housing market shift: 6 major markets where home prices are actually falling. Some regional housing markets in states, such as Texas, Florida, and Louisiana, are experiencing mild home price corrections. – Fast Company
  • America Is Primed for a Home-Renovation Resurgence. Falling interest rates are expected to make it easier to pay for big home-improvement projects – Wall Street Journal 
  • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.84 million SAAR in September, New Cycle Low. Median House Prices Increased 3.0% Year-over-Year – Calculated Risk
  • Existing Home Sales Fall to 14-Year Low in September – NAHB
  • The Multifamily Housing Conundrum – Atlanta Fed 



On the US—other developments:    

  • How the next president can solve America’s housing crisis – Agglomerations
  • Housing costs are rising everywhere — but especially in swing states. America’s housing affordability crisis is weighing heavily on the nation’s most sought-after voters in places like Wilmington, N.C., where home prices have risen 65 percent since 2019. – Washington Post
  • As Harris Courts Sun Belt, Housing Costs Stand in Her Way. Shuttered factories and trade deals helped turn working-class Midwesterners against Democrats. Will the high cost of housing do the same in the Sun Belt? – New York Times
  • Can Million-Dollar Apartments Solve California’s Housing Crisis? – Cato  
  • Where do the estimates of a “housing shortage” come from? – Brookings
  • High Prices, Low Supply: Three Swing State Cities Show the Housing Crunch. Middle-class housing pain is especially acute in Las Vegas, Philadelphia and Atlanta areas – Bloomberg
  • POLITICO’s Affordable Housing: The New Agenda – Politico   
  • Down Payments Are Dropping From Historic Highs—See How Much Homebuyers Can Save Today – Realtor.com
  • California’s Unaffordable Housing Plans. Ballot measures would let localities impose rent control and evade property-tax limits. – Wall Street Journal
  • California Home Sales Up 5% SA YoY in September – Calculated Risk
  • How Developers Are Catering to Would-Be Homeowners With Rental Amenities. Families are choosing to rent for the foreseeable future  — some out of necessity, others for amenities. – New York Times
  • Housing Cost Burdens Across Congressional Districts – NAHB
  • Home Equity Gains Level Off as U.S. Housing Market Cools Down During Third Quarter of 2024 – ATTOM



On China:

  • China Home Price Slump Drags On Despite Revival Efforts – Bloomberg
  • China Ramps up Spending on Housing Projects to $562bn. Minister vows to expand its “white list” of housing projects for priority funding, while banks boost lending for developments to 4 trillion yuan ($562 billion) by year-end – Asia Financial
  • China will win ‘tough battle’ to preserve property sector: housing minister. China’s housing ministry unveiled its plan to support the country’s property sector, with an expansion of funding to 4 trillion yuan – South China Morning Post
  • China’s home prices see biggest drop in 9 years despite efforts to revive market. New home prices in September fell 6.1 per cent year on year in 70 mainland cities, widening from a 5.7 per cent slump in August – South China Morning Post
  • China cuts mortgage rate in ‘encouraging sign’, but heavy lifting still needed. Five-year loan prime rate lowered from 3.85 per cent to 3.6 per cent, the People’s Bank of China said on Monday – South China Morning Post



On Australia and New Zealand

  • [Australia] Making sense of housing policy proposals – CoreLogic
  • [Australia] Why does big business want Australia to spend billions on not building houses? Housing developers have a keen financial interest in drip-feeding new homes into the market to maximise their returns – The Guardian
  • [Australia] Australia is getting serious about the housing crisis. Young people, parents and grandparents should all have a stake in fixing arguably Australia’s No.1 economic and social challenge. – Financial Review



On other countries:  

  • [Canada] ‘In the Red Pretty Deep’: Canadian Housing Investors Try to Sell to Stanch Losses. Outlook ‘not great’ for housing investors, RBC economist says. Rental rates have flatlined recently as immigration slows – Bloomberg
  • [Malaysia] In a Malaysian Pop-Up City, Echoes of China’s Housing Crash. Forest City was an audacious $100 billion project by a top Chinese developer. Today, the project is a fraction of what had been planned and the developer is broke. – New York Times
  • [United Kingdom] UK Housing Crisis Has a Back-to-the-Future Fix. New towns are the forgotten half of a social contract that helped to transform living conditions after the war. Labour’s plan to revive them is overdue. – Bloomberg

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

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