Housing View – August 9, 2024

On cross-country:

  • Housing costs: a final hurdle in the last mile of disinflation? – BIS
  • Savills Prime Residential Index: World Cities – H1 2024. Which cities have seen price growth in the first six months of the year? Are rents still outperforming capital values? And what do we expect to see for the remainder of 2024? – Savills


Working papers and conferences:

  • Household Mobility and Mortgage Rate Lock – NBER
  • Global urban structural growth shows a profound shift from spreading out to building up – nature
  • Mortgage Lock‑In Spurs Recent HELOC Demand – New York Fed
  • Where to Build Affordable Housing? Evaluating the Tradeoffs of Location – SSRN


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • US Home Price Insights – August 2024 – CoreLogic
  • Private Residential Construction Spending Falls for Second Straight Month – NAHB
  • US construction spending extends decline in June – Reuters 
  • Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
  • Kamala Harris’s recent embrace of rent control, explained. Capping rent increases makes voters excited, but economists wary. – Vox
  • Renters Struggle with Competing Costs of Food, Energy, and Housing – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
  • Here’s What’s About to Change for People Buying and Selling Homes – Time
  • Why some homeowners are leaving their low mortgage rates behind – Axios
  • Residential Building Wages See Fastest Growth in More Than Five Years – NAHB
  • Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in more than a year. The decline spurred a surge in refinancing applications – Quartz
  • Small Decrease in Mortgage Activity for July – NAHB
  • Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey – Mortgage Bankers Association
  • ICE Mortgage Monitor: Existing Home Inventory Surges in Florida and Texas – Calculated Risk
  • How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Change for 2025? – Calculated Risk
  • Federal Home Loan Banks Face Amped-Up Pressure From Biden Administration, Senators – Bloomberg
  • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in July. Early Reports Suggest New Cycle Low for NAR reported Sales in July – Calculated Risk
  • Stock Market Turbulence Could Trip Up Home Sales—and These Cities Could Get Hit First – Realtor.com
  • These Cities Have More Housing Stock Than Before the Pandemic – Realtor.com


On the US—other developments:    

  • Home Sizes: Demand versus Supply – NAHB
  • A $1 Trillion Time Bomb Is Ticking in the Housing Market. Millions of US homes are underinsured because their premiums don’t reflect the risk of climate-fueled catastrophes. – Bloomberg
  • Homes to Stay Unaffordable Whatever the Fed Does, Survey Shows. Among the greatest threats to personal finances are resurgent inflation and the presidential race. – Bloomberg
  • Harris Says She Rescued California Homeowners Hurt by the Financial Crisis. The Reality Is More Complex. Banks met half of their mortgage-relief obligations in the state by writing off loans on homes that were already abandoned, WSJ analysis shows – Wall Street Journal
  • The Mechanics of Changing American Mortgages. If it’s too difficult to change how all these different government agencies currently regulate mortgages, here are 2 alternatives. – Real Estate Decoded
  • Priced out of housing, many younger disillusioned voters embrace populism. The scarcity of affordable homes to buy or rent has raised enthusiasm for politicians campaigning against immigration — though other causes for the crunch abound. – Politico
  • July 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
  • 76 Secrets of U.S. Home Ownership – Conclusion. Let’s make home ownership boring again. – Real Estate Decoded
  • Worried About Extreme Weather? Check Out 12 Hidden Housing Markets With Low Climate Risks – Realtor.com
  • What’s Happening in Louisville Could Solve a Housing Crisis – New York Times
  • Frustration Evident in Consumer Housing Sentiment. Only 17% Say It’s a ‘Good Time’ to Buy, Despite Known Aspiration to Own – Fannie Mae
  • What’s happened to real estate commissions since the big settlement – Axios


On China:

  • China Rejects $1 Trillion Housing Rescue Plan Pitched by IMF. IMF recommends direct government financing of delayed projects. China cites worries over moral hazards, bail-out expectations – Bloomberg
  • Country Garden Sales Drop 72% as China’s Housing Woes Persist – Bloomberg
  • China Cities Rush to Lure Homebuyers With Sweeteners, Price Cuts. Guangzhou offers ‘quasi-Hukou’ to select property buyers. Multiple cities have removed price floor for developers – Bloomberg


On other countries:  

  • [Australia] RBA hold decision unlikely to boost housing demand – CoreLogic
  • [Austria] Vienna’s social housing, lauded by progressives, pushes out the poor. The city’s most hard-up rely on the private sector – The Economist
  • [Canada] Toronto Home Prices Climb for Second Month Even as Sales Slow. New property listings slipped slightly in July from June. Transactions dropped 1.7% as buyers await further rate cuts – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Is Singapore’s housing model a realistic solution for Canada’s affordability woes? – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Are Airbnb rentals eating up Calgary’s housing market? No, says StatCan report. The number of short-term rentals in Calgary is well below the national average, according to the federal agency – Calgary Herald
  • [Costa Rica] Costa Rica’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
  • [Estonia] Estonia Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
  • [Germany] German Property Prices Record First Quarterly Rise in Two Years. Index shows increases across all residential segments. Kiel Institute says turnaround in real estate market has begun – Bloomberg
  • [Singapore] Calm down, Singapore’s housing market is not about to collapse. Evidence points to a slowdown in Singapore’s residential property market, but a normalisation of activity is being misconstrued as a crisis – South China Morning Post
  • [Spain] The Sydney suburbs BBVA Research: la presión de la demanda impulsará el precio de la vivienda en 2024 y 2025 en España. – BBVA
  • [United Kingdom] Owners of flats struggle to step up housing ladder. Stagnating prices have made it hard to build equity, research reveals – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Rise the Most Since January, Halifax Says. Figures chime with Nationwide data showing increasing prices. Prices rose most in Northern Ireland and by 1.2% in London – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] There Are Tentative Signs of a UK House Price Recovery. As always, what happens next will depend on the cost of mortgages. – Bloomberg

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

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