Housing View – August 30, 2024

On cross-country:

  • BIS residential property price statistics, Q1 2024. The fall in global house prices moderated further in the first quarter of 2024, at 1.0% year on year (yoy) in aggregate and in real terms. In more than half of the economies, real prices were already increasing compared with the same period one year earlier, showing high heterogeneity. – BIS
  • South Korea, Australia show rate cuts are no cure-all for property markets. The two nations provide a cautionary tale of the limits of monetary policy when other factors also influence the outlook for residential property – South China Morning Post


Working papers and conferences:

  • Understanding Spatial House Price Dynamics in a Housing Boom – CESifo
  • Wildfires and Real Estate Values in California – San Francisco Fed
  • Rents, home values depressed in air pollution hotspots – Dallas Fed
  • Property Tax Policy and Housing Affordability – SSRN
  • Did Brexiteers Get What They Voted for? Evidence from the Housing Market – SSRN
  • Hot Property. The Amplifying Effects of Housing Costs on Regional Inequality – SSRN
  • Housing Tenure, Consumption and Household Debt: Life-Cycle Dynamics During a Housing Bust in Spain – SSRN
  • The Aggregate and Distributional Implications of Credit Shocks on Housing and Rental Markets – SSRN  


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • What Determines Home Prices? Hint: it’s (mostly) not supply – Home Economics
  • US house prices fall on monthly basis in June – Reuters
  • Home Price Gains Continue to Slow – NAHB 
  • U.S. House Prices Rise 5.7 Percent over the Last Year; Up 0.9 Percent from the First Quarter of 2024 – FHFA
  • U.S. Accuses RealPage of Illegally Coordinating Rent Prices. Suit alleges the real-estate software company stifles competition through its algorithm – Wall Street Journal
  • Surprise Lift for New Home Sales in July – NAHB
  • New home sales jump in July; Buyers take advantage of lower rates – Realtor.com
  • New York City Rental Report: Rents Continue to Increase in July 2024 – Realtor.com
  • Homes Sales Are Down, So Why No Recession? – CoreLogic
  • Single-Family Build Time Continues to Trend Upward for 2023 – NAHB
  • Apartment Completions Rising – NAHB
  • Reforms Spur Faster Housing Approvals in California. A state law removed hurdles, creating a more predictable process for homebuilding – Pew
  • Mortgage rates keep falling. But homebuyers still aren’t biting. Rates are dropping and inventory is up. But for many, prices are still too high – Quartz
  • Home Mortgage Lending Rebounds Nationwide with Across the Board Gains in Second Quarter of 2024 – ATTOM
  • Homeowners with low mortgage rates are seeing the ‘lock-in effect’ fade. Here’s what that means. Americans are slowly starting to let go of their pandemic-era mortgages – Quartz
  • Does a Construction Cartel Explain Rising Rents? – American Institute for Economic Research


On the US—other developments:    

  • Housing Is the Sleeper Issue of the 2024 Campaign. Harris promises to double down on Biden policies that have made it more expensive to buy a home. – Wall Street Journal
  • Harris puts housing at center of economic pitch to US voters – Reuters
  • Kamala Harris puts housing on the agenda – Politico
  • Kamala Harris’ Affordability Agenda Is a Good Idea Backed by Terrible Policies. Americans need a politician dedicated to unwinding decades of government interventions that have driven up the cost of middle-class living. – Reason
  • YIMBYs’ Premature Victory Dance at the DNC. Kamala Harris’ promise to end the housing shortage and adopt rent control shows that YIMBY ideas are just one of several competing housing policy agendas within the Democratic Party. – Reason
  • ‘America is not a museum’: Why Democrats are going big on housing despite the risks. Vice President Kamala Harris is trying to flip the script and own an issue impacting large swaths of Americans. – Politico
  • Housing crisis and working-class focus drive DNC momentum – Axios
  • Plan Beats No Plan – New York Times
  • Soaring Insurance Costs Could ‘End’ Affordable Housing, Developers Warn. Developers and landlords of subsidized housing, who cannot raise rents or charge more for starter homes, say property insurance increases could put them out of business. – New York Times  
  • Florida’s top affordable housing issues. The Sunshine State has seen an increase in new businesses and population in recent years, which puts more pressure on affordable housing. Learn how developers are addressing the housing crisis. – JP Morgan
  • Real Estate Realities: Current Perspectives on the Housing Market – St. Louis Fed
  • Where the housing market shift is—and isn’t—happening. The current softening in the housing market is concentrated by region. Here’s where home prices have moved the most. – Fast Company
  • The Week in Review. Week of Aug 19 — Sales surge – Home Economics
  • Why Philadelphia Is Bucking a Nationwide Surge in Evictions. Diversion program requires landlords to go through out-of-court negotiations before they can remove tenants. – Wall Street Journal
  • Finally, America’s housing market is starting to loosen up. But it’ll be a bumpy road back – CNN
  • The ADU lovefest is just getting started. Could the popularity of ADUs lead to something more? – The New Urban Order
  • Housing affordability in America is finally improving. Not so much in these cities – CNN
  • Trends in Housing Affordability: Who Can Currently Afford to Buy a Home? – National Association of Realtors
  • The Private-Equity Scion Buying Up America’s Trophy Homes. Daren Metropoulos has spent roughly 18 years building a property portfolio worth about $326 million – Wall Street Journal


On China:

  • China Vows to Quicken Buying Unsold Homes for Public Housing. Part of latest effort to end the nation’s property slump. Will also step up renting and selling of public housing units – Bloomberg
  • To restore consumer confidence, China must save the property sector. Instead of squandering billions buying unsold properties, Beijing should learn from the US response to the global financial crisis – South China Morning Post
  • Protests in China on the Rise Amid Housing Crisis, Slowing Economy. Dissent cases rise 18% in the second quarter of 2024: CDM. Four-decade rise in living standards shows signs of stalling – Bloomberg


On Australia and New Zealand

  • [Australia] Housing market overview – Sept Qtr. 2024 – Matusik Missive
  • [Australia] Australia caps international student numbers amid discontent over housing. Education minister says enrolments to be limited to 270,000 in 2025 in bid to create ‘a better and a fairer system’. – Al Jazeera
  • [Australia] Car park wins out over affordable housing despite shortfall of 6,000 homes across inner Melbourne. Open-air car parking a ‘poor use of prime real estate in the inner city’, councillor says – The Guardian
  • [Australia] Canada and Australia bet on housing and lost – Macrobusiness 
  • [New Zealand] Is housing market rebound waiting to happen? – RNZ


On other countries:  

  • [Argentina] Argentina Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
  • [Canada] Canada Frees Up Public Lands to Tackle Housing Shortage – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Ottawa unveils five federal properties for affordable housing development – The Globe and Mail
  • [Germany] Rebound in German home prices around the corner, analysts say: Reuters poll – Reuters
  • [Hong Kong] Betting on Chinese demand, Hong Kong developers turn to rental market – Reuters
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s July used-home price index drops to 8-year low amid tepid property market. Hong Kong’s housing industry is mired in a slump, as a huge stock of new homes combines with borrowing costs at a 23-year high – South China Morning Post
  • [Netherlands] How Rent Controls Are Deepening the Dutch Housing Crisis. A law designed to make homes more affordable ended up aggravating an apartment shortage. – Bloomberg
  • [Portugal] Lisbon’s Housing Market Is Unstoppable, Golden Visa or Not. Tweaks to the program haven’t halted interest from international buyers, who have boosted home prices in Portugal’s capital city – Wall Street Journal
  • [South Africa] South Africa Weighs Tightening Bank-Disclosure Laws on Mortgages. High rejection rate for loan applications worrying: minister. Banks cited poor affordability, housing department says – Bloomberg
  • [Sweden] Sweden’s SBB sees improving property market as losses shrink – Reuters
  • [Turkey] Turkey Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
  • [United Kingdom] London landlords leave the market in increasing numbers. Buy-to-let property sales are on the rise – FT
  • [United Kingdom] First-time buyers made up 48% of house hunters in London this year, data shows. Proportion was biggest since at least 2010 as cheaper mortgage deals slowed exodus from city, says estate agent – The Guardian

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

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