Housing View – August 23, 2024

Working papers and conferences:

  • NAR Settlement, House Prices, and Consumer Welfare – NBER
  • Affordable Housing, Unaffordable Credit? Concentration and High-Cost Lending for Manufactured Homes – SSRN
  • From Boom to Bust: Probabilities of Turning Points in House Prices – SSRN 


On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • U.S. Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – August 2024 | Spotlight: Refinance Trends – Freddie Mac
  • Home Sales Remain Subdued as Labor Market and Inflation Continue to Cool – Fannie Mae
  • MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q2 2024 – Calculated Risk
  • Single-Family Starts Weak in July – NAHB
  • Housing Starts: Single Family Down Year-15% over-year in July; Multi-Family Down 18% YoY – Calculated Risk 
  • New Residential Construction Slides in July; Multi-Family Projects Lead Decline – Realtor.com
  • The Typical U.S. Housing Payment Has Fallen to Lowest Level in 6 Months. That Has Led to More Buyer Interest, But Not More Sales – Redfin
  • Best Quarter for Custom Home Building in Almost Two Years – NAHB
  • Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July and 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets – Calculated Risk
  • Here Comes Kamala’s Mortgage Forgiveness. Her plan to make housing more ‘affordable’ via subsidies will raise prices and create moral hazard. – Wall Street Journal
  • Existing Home Sales Rose 0.6% Last Month, But Were At the Lowest July Level on Record – Redfin
  • Solid Levels of Single-Family Built-for-Rent Construction – NAHB
  • The audacious goal of building 10,000 affordable homes in California’s Coachella Valley – Brookings
  • Governors are building more homes. Here’s how Congress can help – The Hill 
  • Lawler: Rent Trends at Invitation Homes and American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) – Calculated Risk
  • 10 Places Where Lower Mortgage Rates Will ‘Unlock’ the Housing Market the Fastest – Realtor.com
  • US Home-Purchase Applications Slide to Lowest Since February – Bloomberg  
  • Housing market map: Zillow’s 2025 home price forecast for more than 400 markets. Zillow thinks national home price growth is amid a sharp deceleration. – Fast Company
  • Homebuilders have had the upper hand in the housing market. Lower rates may change that. – Yahoo Finance


On the US—other developments:    

  • Harris has the right idea on housing. It has to be managed as both a consumer good and as an asset class. – Noahpinion
  • Harris’s housing plans: Key takeaways – Yahoo Finance
  • Harris to Call for Expanded Child Tax Credit, 3 Million New Housing Units. Democratic nominee to address thorny economic issue by calling for more construction, tax incentives – Wall Street Journal
  • Harris’s economic plan: grocery prices, housing credits and tax rises. Populist measures designed to win over US voters are less welcome to business and economists – FT
  • Why Harris’s housing plan won’t work. Kamala Harris can’t count on adding 3 million houses to the market by 2028. – Washington Post
  • Letter: VP’s offer to first-time buyers risks fuelling the housing crisis – FT
  • Kamala Harris’ welcome housing boost is overdue – Reuters
  • Kamala Harris’ ‘Build, Baby, Build’ Convention. Housing supply hasn’t been a front-burner issue in presidential politics for decades. That changed this week in Chicago. – Politico
  • The Harris-Walz Campaign’s Housing Agenda Is Subpar – Jacobin   
  • Rep. Maxwell Frost stresses housing as priority for young voters – Axios
  • The Share of Million-Dollar Homes in America Just Hit an All-Time High. Nearly 1 in 10 properties have an estimated value of $1 million or more, an ‘entry point’ for some markets – Wall Street Journal
  • Cutting Fees. Going It Alone. New Rules Are Changing How We Buy and Sell Homes. Buyers can now determine what their agents are paid under new rules being rolled out across the U.S. – Wall Street Journal
  • Why is New York City Shrinking? Who is leaving, and where are they going? – Home Economics
  • Our Carrie Bradshaw index: where Americans can afford to live solo in 2024. Compared with last year, rent on basic apartments looks more affordable – The Economist
  • Best Quarter for Custom Home Building in Almost Two Years – NAHB
  • Lowe’s Cuts Guidance on Soft DIY Spending, Housing Market. Consumers are pulling back on spending for big ticket projects. Retailer said it is making inroads with professional customers – Bloomberg  
  • Flat Conditions for Single-Family Home Size – NAHB
  • California’s decade-long effort to legalize ADUs offers lessons for other US states and regions – Brookings


On China:

  • China’s $70bn property rescue plan limps off starting line. Banks have disbursed only a fraction of the scheme’s target lending to buy up unsold housing – FT


On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Melbourne mayor backs converting offices into apartments in bid to boost housing supply. Support for idea comes as Victorian government unveils plan to fast-track planning approvals in 10 hubs across city – The Guardian
  • [Canada] Canada real estate: Housing affordability improves as income required to buy a home fall – Yahoo Finance
  • [Hong Kong] Are young Hongkongers choosing to pursue public rental flats over their dreams? Officials caution against ‘lying flat’, but young people point to severe shortage of housing choices – South China Morning Post
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s homebuyers would rather forfeit their deposits than pay above-market prices. The 308 cases in the first half of the year have already exceeded last year’s total of 261, according to data from Centaline – South China Morning Post
  • [Israel] Israel Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
  • [Japan] Japan Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024 – Global Property Guide
  • [Korea] Koreans Expect Hotter Home Prices With Central Bank Set to Meet – Bloomberg
  • [Korea] Bank of Korea Holds Rate Steady to Rein in Housing Market Meet – Bloomberg
  • [Singapore] Latest property cooling measure will dampen demand in the short term, say analysts – The Straits Times
  • [Singapore] Singapore Adds Public Housing Curbs to Boost Affordability. Loan-to-value limit lowered to 75% for public housing. Public housing deals at or above S$1 million reached 419 in 1H – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] To Solve Its Housing Crisis, Britain Turns to an Old Idea: New Towns. By reviving an idea from the 1940s, the Labour Party government is hoping to overcome the development hurdles that have plagued previous efforts with a plan to build new communities. – New York Times
  • [United Kingdom] Interest rate cut fuels immediate upturn in UK property market. Figures from Rightmove show inquiries to estate agents since 1 August up 19% compared with a year ago – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] When will UK rental inflation slow down? It might be soon — but that would leave tenants on a painful plateau – FT

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

Home

Subscribe to: Posts