The Unassuming Economist

Conferences:

• International Conference on Real Estate Development and Management on February 1th to 4^th, 2023 – Ankara University

On cross-country:

• The World’s Hottest Housing Markets Are Facing a Painful Reset. Frothy property markets are poised for double-digit price declines as consumers face mounting financial pressures. – Bloomberg
• A Global Housing Bust Looms – Bloomberg
• Asia Real Estate Prices Cool in Early Sign of Global Slowdown. Countries including New Zealand and China saw declines in the second quarter, even as prices continued to climb in most places around the world. – Bloomberg
• Real estate booms are behind Europe’s productivity divergence – VoxEU

On the US—developments on house prices and rent:    

• If You Want to Know Where US Inflation Is Heading, Look at Rents. Housing costs play big role in measures of underlying prices. Rent may be close to topping out, but won’t cool any time soon – Bloomberg
• How the ‘Rise of the Rest’ Became the ‘Rise of the Rents’. The pandemic helped spread the sky-high housing prices of coastal hubs to other cities across the US. Here’s why it happened. – Bloomberg
• San Francisco Home Prices Slide in Stark Turn for Costly City. Brokerages show values falling 7% in the past year as higher mortgage rates and work-from-home issues crush demand. – Bloomberg 
• Paul Krugman: Apartment rents peaking? More important than people may realize for economic policy, because rents — market rents and imputed rents on owner-occupied housing — are key drivers of all measures of core inflation 1/ – Twitter

On the US—other developments:    

• Housing market to see ‘significant amount of weakness ahead,’ Goldman says – Yahoo Finance
• The Fed Is Driving an Unusual Contradiction in the Housing Market – Barron’s
• Current State of the Housing Market – Calculated Risk
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in August. Sales and New Listings Down Sharply Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• Housing inflation is dead. But high housing prices live on – FT
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in August. Sales and New Listings Down Sharpy Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• How Not to Blow Up the Housing Market – American Action Forum
• Median Price of a New Age-Restricted Home Up to $472,000 – NAHB
• Housing Slowdown Puts Damper on Rent-Backed Bonds. Sales of single-family rental-backed bonds to decelerate. Strong rental market is still a positive for the sector – Bloomberg
• Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Still Strong in Q2. Homeowners now relying on Home Equity lines to extract equity – Calculated Risk
• Will the Fed really sell its mortgage bonds next year? Predictability and principles should win – FT
• U.S. Bancorp expects mortgages to be down 30%-35% in Q3 vs Q2 – Reuters
• Real Estate Listings With Flood Scores Shift Home-Shopper Habits. Redfin users who were shown home flood scores went on to view lower-risk properties, an experiment by the company found. – Bloomberg
• Regional Bank Heads See More Signs of Mortgage-Business Strain on Rates. U.S. Bancorp sees mortgage revenue falling as much as 35%. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo are cutting back their mortgage staffs – Bloomberg
• These Housing Markets Are Most at Risk of a Downturn, According to a New Report – Barron’s
• Q2 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO. REO: lender Real Estate Owned – Calculated Risk
• U.S. mortgage interest rates top 6% for first time since 2008 – Reuters

On China:

• China Rolls Out Property Policies Across Nation to Fix Slump. At least 70 policies have been issued across cities in China. Cities are optimizing policies based on their own situation – Bloomberg
• Chinese Banks Lose a Mortgage Safety Net as Developers Slide Into Distress. Real-estate firms have written at least $300 billion in mortgage guarantees on uncompleted homes that they presold – Wall Street Journal
• Evergrande vows to restart all stalled property projects. Heavily indebted Chinese developer’s Hong Kong headquarters was seized last week – FT
• China’s ponzi-like property market is eroding faith in the state. Its meltdown could scarcely come at a worse time for Xi Jinping – The Economist  
• Evergrande Vows to Resume Projects to Allay Boycott Concerns. Debt-laden developer to restart remaining 38 stalled projects. Unfinished homes have led buyers to boycott mortgages in China – Bloomberg
• Chinese Rush to Repay Mortgages Gains Momentum in Abrupt U-Turn. People are cashing in investment products to pay off mortgages as economic uncertainty and Covid-19 outbreaks cause them to rethink their finances. – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Australia] ‘A necessity’: housing prices force more Australians into share homes in midlife. The share-house demographic is skewing older. More people are renting and sharing – and they’re doing it longer – The Guardian
• [Australia] Rent is skyrocketing in Australia. Is Airbnb responsible for driving up prices? Experts say many factors are responsible for rising costs, and growth in short-term rentals may not be the main culprit – The Guardian
• [Australia] High-density development and better rent assistance key to addressing Australia’s housing crisis, economist says. Brendan Coates warns person’s future wealth is increasingly driven by ‘who their parents were rather than their talent’ – The Guardian
• [Finland] Finland’s housing market remains stable – Global Property Guide
• [Hong Kong] Recent Hong Kong homebuyers stand to lose millions as prices decline – some already have. Many people who bought homes over the past five years are now facing a loss – at least on paper – as prices continue to slide. Some owners who had to sell have taken significant losses – in one case to the tune of HK$5.85 million (US$745,334) – South China Morning Post
• [Ireland] Irish house price growth slows to 13% year-on-year in July – Reuters
• [New Zealand] House prices continue to slide from last year’s peak – RNZ
• [Singapore] Singapore’s modest house price growth – Global Property Guide
• [Singapore] Singapore Property Is Unaffordable, Six Out of 10 People Say. City-state’s real estate market defies gravity, fueling angst. Rising rates are having a limited impact on market: analyst – Bloomberg
• [South Korea] Korea’s Housing Market Falls Most Since Global Financial Crisis – Bloomberg
• [Sweden] Sweden’s Big Short Signals Trouble for European Real Estate. SBB is second-most shorted stock in Europe on debt concerns. Falling property values, refinancing woes pose downgrade risk – Bloomberg 
• [United Kingdom] The great British housing wealth divide. The over-65s hold 47 per cent of housing equity and 7.4mn ‘extra’ bedrooms. Could the cost of living crisis change things? – FT  
• [United Kingdom] Builders and estate agents braced for UK housing downturn. Protracted drop in activity and prices likely because of high inflation and low consumer confidence – FT
• [United Kingdom] Higher rents and utility bills pushing people into smaller homes, says Zoopla. Trend for cheaper flats and houses comes with increase in cost of living pressures – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK Consumer Confidence Drop Feeds Concern About House Prices. YouGov survey shows first negative reading since 2020 lockdown. Outlook for house prices plummets with rising mortgage rates – Bloomberg