The Unassuming Economist

From Curbed:

“Housing availability and affordability will help determine these states’ trajectories this year

Texas and California represent opposite poles on the spectrum of government ideology⁠—the Golden State’s Democratic supermajority versus the conservative Lone Star State’s regulation-averse independent streak⁠—and in recent years, starkly different results when it comes to housing policy and production.

Predictions for this coming year highlight the divide. According to the recently released Texas A&M Real Estate Center’s outlook for 2020, the state’s homebuilding industry will still have a banner year, despite forecasts for muted economic growth.

“Both the Texas and U.S. economy will likely slow in 2020 yet still register solid growth,” says Real Estate Center research economist Luis Torres. “With uncertainty around trade wars and the current crude oil trajectory, two of the strongest economic drivers for Texas will decrease economic momentum. In contrast, one of the star performers of the 2020 economy will be the housing market, with double-digit growth in new home construction for the first time since 2017.”

California flips that idea on its head. Instead of attracting residents with a surfeit of new housing options despite low growth, it’s posting job growth above the national average, even beating the economies of many European nations when it comes to growth and performance metrics, yet still pushing away many residents⁠—making it harder for lower- and middle-income residents to stay—as a result of soaring housing prices and continued difficulty building new supply.”

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