The Unassuming Economist

A new paper from the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center finds that:

“This paper identifies key determinants that appear to shape OPEC’s quota strategy and implementation. Using econometric estimations, it examines the factors that seem to most influence members’ adherence to their production commitments in the short term and what drives the organization’s quota decisions and level of compliance in the longer term

Key findings:

• Global oil market indicators such as oil price, global crude oil demand, six-month global demand projections, and the output of non-OPEC producers primarily drive OPEC’s quota decisions. Macroeconomic indicators, such as global gross domestic product growth and inflation, appear to play an insignificant role.

• The sampled OPEC member countries have different drivers of oil production. The output of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and Iran is significantly affected by OPEC’s quotas and their reaction to the compliance levels of other OPEC members.

• The national oil production of Algeria, Nigeria and Venezuela appears to be primarily driven by a portfolio of economic, financial and political indices.

• Exogenous shocks impact OPEC quota levels and production. These mostly include country-specific shocks which can be external (e.g., sanctions) or domestic (crises, strikes or military conflicts). The impact of such events, however, is usually alleviated on the OPEC level, indicating the organization’s ability to balance its aggregate supply.”