The Unassuming Economist

The real estate sector “(…) has shown growing signs of imbalances and activity has softened in 2014. The challenge is to allow for the necessary correction while preventing an excessively sharp slowdown. The contribution of real estate and construction to growth has been rising; last year, it accounted directly for 12.8 percent of value added, and about 33 percent if upstream and downstream sectors are included. Residential real estate is marked by substantial regional differentiation. Large cities have enjoyed favorable demand conditions—reflecting both underlying and speculative demand—and prices show signs of overvaluation relative to fundamentals, despite measures aimed at restricting speculative demand. In contrast, many smaller cities have experienced oversupply as local governments promoted large-scale development to boost growth and used land sales to finance local government spending. Supply seems to have outpaced demand in many areas as evidenced by muted price increases and rising inventories. The commercial real estate market appears to be in oversupply in both smaller and bigger cities,” according to the latest IMF report on China.