Why A Recession In 2019 Is Possible When Unemployment Is At 50-Year Lows

From a new Forbes article by Raul Elizalde:

“Forecasting the economy is just as difficult as forecasting the stock market. Economists are very good at explaining what already happened and why, but not so at predicting what will happen next.

They know this. Prakash Loungani, an economist at the IMF, showed in a study that professional forecasters missed 148 out of 153 world recessions. This is not surprising: Economic indicators very rarely flash any warnings before a recession actually arrives. Economic downturns seem to come unexpectedly.”

My paper is available here.

Posted by at 8:36 AM

Labels: Forecasting Follies

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