Do IMF fiscal forecasts add value?

My new paper with Zidong An,  Joao Jalles, and Ricardo M. Sousa was just published in Journal of Forecasting:

“We used a panel of 29 advanced and emerging market countries to investigate whether the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) fiscal forecasts add value in terms of forecast accuracy and information content, relative to private sector forecasts (from Consensus Economics). We find that: (i) WEO forecasts are not significantly less accurate than Consensus forecasts; (ii) WEO and Consensus forecasts tend to mutually encompass one another; and (iii) each source of forecasts appears to contain some information that is not embedded in the other source.”

 

 

Posted by at 11:27 AM

Labels: Forecasting Follies

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