Can Central Bankers Become Superforecasters?

From a new post by Aakash Mankodi and Tim Pike:

“Tetlock and Gardner’s acclaimed work on Superforecasting provides a compelling case for seeing forecasting as a skill that can be improved, and one that is related to the behavioural traits of the forecaster. These so-called Superforecasters have in recent years been pitted against experts ranging from U.S intelligence analysts to participants in the World Economic Forum, and have performed on par or better by accurately predicting the outcomes of a broad range of questions. Sounds like music to a central banker’s ears? In this post, we examine the traits of these individuals, compare them with economic forecasting and draw some related lessons. We conclude that considering the principles and applications of Superforecasting can enhance the work of central bank forecasting.

[…]

With continuous forecasting challenges on the horizon in coming years, perhaps it is an opportune time to incorporate these ideas in the central banking sphere. Economic forecasting will always be an imperfect science. So while it is unlikely that a major shock such as the global financial crisis would have been averted by improving the accuracy of forecasting efforts in these ways, we believe the lessons learnt through the experiment of Superforecasting have a lot to offer to take forecasting a step forward in that direction.  Potentially over time, we might be able to create a next generation of central bank Superforecasters.”

Posted by at 9:10 AM

Labels: Forecasting Follies

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