Thursday, February 2, 2017
This year’s award is shared by Allan Lichtman and Helmut Norpoth, two political scientists, who forecasted a Trump victory in the U.S. Presidential elections. Though I started out giving the award to people who had the courage to forecast recessions, I think it is good to broaden it to recognize courageous forecasts in other areas. Both Lichtman and Norpoth described the basis on which they were making their forecasts, which is an essential consideration in who gets the award. Outrageous forecasts made without providing some reasoning don’t qualify. The 2016 award went to Michael Shedlock (“Mish”) and the inaugural 2015 award to Lakshman Achuthan.
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