Wednesday, January 27, 2016
But as Drum noted in the Economist article, “Despite forecasters’ best efforts, growth is devilishly hard to predict”.
Last year, in September, my presentation at the Federal Forecasters Conference summarized my work on the inability or unwillingness of forecasters to predict recessions. I suggested that to get forecasters to predict recessions (even inaccurately) we should have a Stekler Award for Courage in Forecasting. The award would be in honor of noted forecaster Herman Stekler who says that forecasters should predict recessions early and often and that he himself has predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions.
For my recent work on forecast accuracy see the following:
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