Thursday, April 5, 2012
Is U.S. long term unemployment set to decline? That’s what an updated version of my paper on cyclical versus structural unemployment predicts. The data in recent quarters have shown an even faster pace of decline than the prediction. Tomorrow’s unemployment number will tell if this trend continues. The paper was presented at the San Francisco Fed Conference (see my presentation). Here’s what Valerie Ramey and Steve Davis said about the paper.
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