Sunday, June 5, 2011
How Often Do Forecasters Revise their Forecasts?
The Economic Times (India) summarizes my recent work on Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidence (joint with Herman Stekler and Natalia Tamirisa).
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- ► December (37)
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- ► December (24)
- Housing View – December 29, 2017
- The Top 17 of ‘17
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- 13 economists on the research that shaped our world in 2017
- The Economics Debate, again and again
- Housing View – December 22, 2017
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- Housing View – December 15, 2017
- How can Natural Gas from TAP increase Productivity?
- Medium Term Growth in Albania
- Okun's Law in Finland: Declining Labor Market Sensitivity
- Finland’s Labor Market
- 2018 Housing Forecasts
- Housing View – December 8, 2017
- Welfare vs. Income Convergence and Environmental Externalities
- Macroprudential Policy in China's Real Estate Market
- Housing in the Maldives
- Djibouti’s Quest for Inclusive Growth
- 2017 Year in Review: A Look Back At the Housing Stories
- The State of Housing Market in Africa
- Growth for the Bottom 40 Percent: The World Bank Group’s Support for Shared Prosperity
- Housing View – December 1, 2017
- ► November (15)
- New eBook: Ordoliberalism: A German oddity?
- Housing View – November 24, 2017
- House Prices in Philippines
- Korea’s Paradigm Shift for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth: A Proposal
- Mexico's Structural Reform Agenda": Early Signs of Success"
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- Growth and Jobs in Developing Economies: Trends and Cycles
- Housing View – November 17, 2017
- Inequality in Financial Inclusion, Gender Gaps, and Income Inequality
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- Dani Rodrik Takes A Crack at Neoliberalism
- Housing View – November 10, 2017
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- Housing View – November 3, 2017
- ► October (17)
- Inequality in Brazil: A Regional Perspective
- Building Resilience to Natural Disasters: An Application to Small Developing States
- Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance
- Housing View – October 27, 2017
- Property Tax in Africa
- The Macroeconomic (and Distributional) Effects of Public Investment in Developing Economies
- Housing Market in Cambodia
- Housing View – October 20, 2017
- Aggregate Uncertainty Shocks and Sectoral Productivity
- Housing View – October 13, 2017
- Capital Account Liberalization and Inequality
- The IMF’s Fiscal Monitor on Tackling Inequality
- House Prices in Spain
- A Closer Look at Employment Creation in Spain since the Crisis
- Housing View – October 6, 2017
- IMF Fiscal Advice to Saudi Arabia
- Who’s the fairest of them all? Ranking countries combining incomes and inequality
- ► September (20)
- Housing View – September 29, 2017
- The Unequal Burden of Rising Temperatures: How Can Low-Income Countries Cope?
- Better thy Neighbor? Cross-border Effects of Fiscal Actions
- Housing View – September 22, 2017
- Corruption in Latin America: Taking Stock
- Growth That Reaches Everyone: Facts, Factors, Tools
- House Prices in Portugal
- The Youth in Portugal through the Crisis
- The Public Sector Wage Bill in Portugal
- Global House Prices: An Update
- Housing View – September 15, 2017
- Increasing Resilience to Large and Volatile Capital Flows: The Role of Macroprudential Policies in Cambodia
- Increasing Resilience to Large and Volatile Capital Flows: The Role of Macroprudential Policies in Sweden
- Does Okun’s Law Hold in Swaziland?
- Okun’s Law in Black and White
- Housing View – September 8, 2017
- Stan Fischer: A Class Act
- Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies
- Why economic forecasting has always been a flawed science
- Housing View – September 1, 2017
- ► August (13)
- Are Emissions Decoupling from Growth?
- Perspective and Trends in the US Housing Market
- Housing View – August 25, 2017
- Housing Finance and Real Estate Markets in Colombia
- Housing View – August 18, 2017
- Inequality in China – Trends, Drivers, and Policy Remedies
- Assessing China's Residential Real Estate Market
- Housing View – August 11, 2017
- Stabilizing the System of Mortgage Finance in the United States
- Housing View – August 4, 2017
- Bridging the Gap: Forecasting Interest Rates with Macro Trends
- Japan’s Lifetime Employment and Gender Inequality
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- ► July (29)
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- A Profile of Assaf Razin
- Housing View – July 28, 2017
- Why economists cannot forecast recessions
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- Ten Ways to Expand U.S. Growth
- Housing: From Immobile and Illiquid to Mobile and Liquid
- Meeting EU Climate Pledges: Assessing Some Potential Policy Refinements
- Inequality of Opportunity, Inequality of Income, and Long-term Growth
- What Explains the Decline of the U.S. Labor Share of Income? An Analysis of State and Industry Level Data
- Forecasting: How to Map the Future Global Business
- Housing View – July 21, 2017
- Women Are Key for Future Growth: Evidence from Canada
- Housing in St. Kitts and Nevis
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- Housing View – July 17, 2017
- Inequality in Brazil: A Micro-data Analysis
- Staying the Role Model: Advancing Gender Equality in Rwanda
- How Advanced Economies Tackle Housing Market Imbalances: Lessons for Canada
- Housing Market in Germany
- Housing View – July 10, 2017
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- Environment and Climate Change in Vietnam
- House Prices in Lithuania
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- International Jobs Report 2017:H1
- Housing View – July 5, 2017
- ► June (18)
- Cross-Country Spillovers of Fiscal Consolidations in the Euro Area
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- Housing View – June 27, 2017
- House Prices in Ireland
- House Prices in Czech Republic
- Income Inequality and the Welfare System in Ireland
- Construction Sector: The World’s Next Productivity Story?
- Global Housing Watch - Q2 2017
- Forecasting Long-Term Interest Rates: A Long History of Errors
- House Prices in Iceland
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- Rodrik on Financial Globalization and Inequality
- Dani Rodrik on the populist backlash against globalization
- Understanding Today’s Stagnation
- House Prices in Thailand
- Colombia's Housing Market
- Is the United States Becoming Less of an Optimal Currency Area?
- Colombia's Peace Agreement Can Give Fillip to Inclusive Growth
- ► May (12)
- Inclusive Growth Framework
- The Quest for Inclusive Cities
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- Housing Construction: The Current State, Policy Implication, and the Future
- Asia Continues to Be the World Growth Leader
- Every Woman Counts: Gender Budgeting in G7 Countries
- Belt and Road Initiative: Strengthening Financial Connectivity
- Housing Market in Luxembourg
- The Informal Economy in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Restarting Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth Engine
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- ► April (8)
- Understanding Housing Supply: Views from Joseph Gyourko
- Going for (Inclusive) Growth
- International Experience of Limits on LTV, DSTI, and LTI Ratios
- A Closer Look at Global Housing
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- Workshop on Forecasting Issues in Developing Economies
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- ► March (18)
- The Power of Two: Inclusive Growth and the IMF
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- Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India
- Jobs and Happiness
- Does Money Buy Happiness? Evidence from China
- House Prices in Belgium
- OPEC’s Rebalancing Act
- IMF on the Decline in Labor Share of Income
- Trade Integration in Latin America and the Caribbean
- Trade, Growth and Inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean
- Global House Prices: An Update
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- ► February (13)
- Housing Market in Africa: What We Do and Don’t Know
- Housing Market in Malta
- House Prices in Macao (SAR)
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- Okun's Law: Fit at 50?--Revised Paper and Dataset
- House Prices in Indonesia
- Turkey's Tourism Sector: Recent Developments and the Impact on the Broader Economy
- House Prices in Morocco
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- Housing Market in Turkey
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- ► January (13)
- The Fruits of Growth: Economic Reforms and Lower Inequality
- Okun's Law and Phillips Curves in Asia
- Macroeconomic Structural Policies and Income Inequality in Low-Income Developing Countries
- House Prices in Spain
- Where are Oil Prices Headed?
- House price measurement: Recent progress
- Toward Inclusive Globalization
- IMF WEO Forecasts: A Shifting Economic Landscape
- An Economy for the 99%
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- ► December (24)
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- Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts
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- Monetary Policy and Inequality
- The Fed and the U.S. Economy: Hitting the Bull's Eye?
- (Not) On The Road Again: Americans Are Moving Less
- Housing Market in Switzerland
- GDP Demystified
- Put Forecasting in Its Final Resting Place
- A Tale of Transition : An Empirical Analysis of Economic Inequality in Urban China
- When China Sneezes Does ASEAN Catch a Cold?
- Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks
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- Housing Market in Chile
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- European Unemployment: Deja Vu All Over Again?
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- ► November (11)
- Housing Policies: What Works?
- Global House Prices: Time to Worry Again?
- Spillovers from the Oil Sector to the Housing Market Cycle
- Housing in Developed and Developing Countries
- Mexico’s welfare gains from hedging oil-price risk
- House Prices in Mexico
- Global Housing Watch Quarterly Update
- International Jobs Report: Global Unemployment Inching Up Again
- Housing Market in Sweden
- Can Property Taxes Reduce House Price Volatility? Evidence from U.S. Regions
- Was Krugman Right? Unemployment during the Great Recession
- ► October (14)
- A “New Normal” for the Oil Market
- Housing in the U.S.: Affordable or Not?
- Employment, Efficiency, Equity: Evolution in IMF Thought
- Technology, Efficiency and Equity
- Top 100 in global finance: two from the IMF make the cut
- Gone with the Wind: Estimating Hurricane Climate Change Costs in the Caribbean
- Goodbye Gentle Jim: Links to Jim Gordon’s Contributions
- Greenspan and I: My Memories of the Maestro
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- Verdict on Greenspan: Mallaby’s New Biography Delivers
- Rethinking the Oil Market
- Jobs and Growth: Outlook and Policy Response
- Financial Globalization, Inequality and the Top 1%
- IMF Research on Inequality: A Primer
- ► September (6)
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- House prices in Korea
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- Global and Local Housing Markets: The View From Experts at the Dallas FED
- Is Uncertainty Hurting Productivity?
- Workshop on Global Labor Markets
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- Climate Mitigation Policy in China: The Many Attractions of Carbon or Coal Taxes
- How Accurate Are Private Sector Fiscal Forecasts? Evidence from the Great Recession
- Demographic Dividends, Gender Equality, and Economic Growth: The Case of Cabo Verde
- Can Reform Waves Turn the Tide? Evidence on the Effects of Structural Reforms
- Global Housing Watch Update
- Special Issue on Global Labor Markets: Call for Papers
- Japan: Minimum wages as a policy tool
- Labor Mobility in the United States
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- ► July (16)
- Housing Market in United Arab Emirates
- Issi Romem on BuildZoom and the U.S. Housing Market
- Jobs and Growth: The Evolution in IMF Research
- Karl E. Case: Remembering A Top Housing Market Guru
- Evictions and Housing: Why Should We Care?
- House Prices in Peru
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- What Keeps France's Unemployment High?
- House Prices in Norway
- Female Labor Force Participation in Poland
- OPEC’s Strategic Actions and the 2014 Oil Price Crash
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- ► February (11)
- Housing Market in the United Kingdom
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- Experts Weigh in on the State of the Global Housing Market
- Financial Development, Inequality and Poverty: Some International Evidence
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- International Jobs Report
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- ► January (12)
- The Unemployment Picture in 2016
- Experts Confer on State of China’s Housing Market
- Global Housing Watch Quarterly Update
- “Growth is devilishly hard to predict”
- Four Questions About Recent Developments in UK's Housing Market
- Housing and Systemic Risk
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- Labor Migration across U.S. States: An Update
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- Sovereign wealth funds in the new era of oil
- IMF's Thanksgiving message: ensure benefits of foreign capital are shared broadly
- Forecasting: Who keeps the score?
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- Effects of Wage Moderation in the Euro Area
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- ► October (9)
- Housing Markets: Balancing Risks and Rewards
- Global House Prices: Gloom, Boom or Doom?
- On U.S. Labor Market Slack: Updated Estimates of the Impact of Uncertainty on Unemployment
- Is the Phillips Curve alive? And should we care?
- Union power and inequality
- Spillovers of Unconventional Monetary Policy
- Dialogue with Angus Deaton
- The Frenchman Who Reshaped the IMF
- Are Australia's House Prices Overvalued?
- ► September (12)
- US Housing Market: An Update
- India's Housing Market: What's happened? What's next?
- The Stekler Award for Courage in Forecasting (Recessions Inaccurately)
- Developments in Israel's Housing Market
- Housing Market in Saudi Arabia
- Israel’s Labor Market: High Inequality, Low Productivity
- Rising House Prices and Household Debt: A Twin Boom in Norway?
- Metals and Oil: A Tale of Two Commodities
- Macroprudential Policies in the Philippines
- What Lies Behind Norway’s Low Unemployment Rate?
- Norway: Peak in Oil Fortunes?
- Labor Day Special: How Countries Rank on Whether Growth Creates Jobs
- ► August (11)
- Behind the commodities bust
- Chile's Housing Market
- Spain's Housing Market
- China: How Big Is the Risk of a Real Estate Slowdown and Does It Matter?
- Johan Norberg: India Awakes
- Recent Labor Market Reforms in Spain: A Preliminary Assessment
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- ► July (12)
- Should Emerging Markets Fear A Fed Lift-Off?
- On the Globalization of Real Estate and its Consequences
- US Housing Market: An Update
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- House Prices in Japan
- LTV and DTI Limits—Going Granular
- Housing Market in Lebanon
- IMF Staff Paper: Unionization, Minimum Wages and Inequality
- House Prices in Germany
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- US Housing Market
- ► June (7)
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- Lower unionization associated with increased inequality: IMF F&D
- Jobs & Inequality: Special Feature in Finance & Development
- Global Housing Watch Newsletter
- Uncertainty and U.S. Unemployment
- New Results on Capital Account Liberalization and Inequality
- House Prices in Slovenia
- Tom Sargent on U.S. and Europe: A Blast from the Past
- Oil Prices and Employment: Some Evidence from US States
- Is Manufacturing Still a Key to Growth?
- International Jobs Report: It's Not Just About US
- The Secret of the (Economic) Universe
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- Persistent Overoptimism about Economic Growth
- On Groundhog Day, Honoring A Forecasting Giant
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- The Science of Inequality
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- ► April (7)
- Global House Prices: Continue Rising
- Minimum Wages and Employment
- Okun Isn't Brokun': Sorry to Sound like a Brokun' Record
- House Prices in Malaysia
- The taxman cometh: IMF Book Forum on Piketty’s Capital
- “There will be growth in the spring”: How well do economists predict turning points?
- IMF's World Economic Outlook--April 2014
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- Global House Prices: falling, recovering, or bubbling?
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- Okun's Not Broken: Jobs and Growth are Still Linked
- "Austerity" and Inequality: Engaging UNICEF
- House Prices in Austria
- U.S. “Structural” Unemployment: Updated Estimates
- House Prices in the Nordics
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- A Marxist theory is (sort of) right
- ► August (8)
- Stan Fischer: A Class Act
- Florida vs. Spain: Labor Mobility within Currency Unions
- The Driving Force behind Construction in Europe
- The Stock Market 'Prediction Charade'
- Okun's Law during the Great Recession: jobs and growth are still linked
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- Great Recession and Not-So-Great Recovery
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- How the IMF became the friend who wants us to work less and drink more
- Why is the Global Recovery So Weak?
- IMF Urges Caution on Union Policy
- How Labor Markets Can Support Workers, Economic Growth
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- Tom Sargent on European and U.S. Economic Woes—and History
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- Manufacturing: Hope or Hopeless?
- Global Think Tanks Rankings
- “Treat us right, not white”: MLK Day 2012
- How Inequality Damages Economies
- The Good, the Bad and the Ugly (Boom, Gloom or Doom?): Global GDP Outlook from Ethan Harris
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