Sunday, June 5, 2011
How Often Do Forecasters Revise their Forecasts?
The Economic Times (India) summarizes my recent work on Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidence (joint with Herman Stekler and Natalia Tamirisa).
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- Rethinking and Expanding Research on Housing Policy with a Global Perspective
- Okun’s Law in China: Understanding China’s Labor Market Resilience
- Can Central Bankers Become Superforecasters?
- The time series figures for the most basic of business cycle macro analyses: What is to be explained and accounted for
- Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve
- Forecasts in Times of Crises
- Significant Shifts in Malaysian Labor Market
- Housing Market in Belgium
- Housing Market in Malaysia
- Housing View – March 9, 2018
- Gender Inequality in Nigeria: Macroeconomic Costs and Future Opportunities
- Distributional Impact of Fiscal Reforms in Nigeria
- IMF Paper Looks at How Inflation Anchoring Affects Growth
- How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?
- Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa
- House Prices in Namibia
- Welfare Gains from Market Insurance: The Case of Mexican Oil Price Risk
- Inflation Anchoring and Growth: Evidence from Sectoral Data
- Housing View – March 2, 2018
- ► February (26)
- Warren Buffett Summarizes Investment Lessons from Winning His 10-year Bet that a Passive S&P 500 Index Fund Would Out-Perform Actively Managed Hedge Funds
- The UK's Housing Problem...
- G-20 Thematic Workshop on Residential and Commercial Property Price Indices
- Housing View – February 23, 2018
- Mortgage Finance and Culture
- Housing Market Imbalances in Australia: Development, Prospects, and Policies
- The New Minimum Wage Policy in Korea
- Youth (Un)Employment in Korea—Recent Trends Drivers
- Labor Market Duality in Korea
- Housing View – February 16, 2018
- UK's Housing Market
- House Prices in Korea
- Korea: Macroprudential Policy and High Household Debt
- Labor Mobility and the Role of Housing Prices in UK
- Regional Disparities and Inclusive Growth in UK
- The Harsh Realism of Adam Smith
- Housing View – February 9, 2018
- What Is Supply and Demand?
- What Is GDP?
- What is Inflation? Back to Basics
- Malta: Address Housing Market Pressures
- House Prices in Indonesia
- Country Experiences With Macroprudential Policies
- Housing View – February 2, 2018
- Adapting to Climate Change: Pricing Right, Taxing Smart, and Acting Now
- How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? A Groundhog Day Update
- ► January (26)
- Scaling-up the Inclusive Growth Agenda in the Arab Region
- Housing Market in Malta
- Foreign Direct Investment and Women Empowerment: New Evidence on Developing Countries
- Housing View – January 26, 2018
- A Narrative Database of Major Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Economies
- FocusEconomics Announces 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards Winners
- Household Credit, Global Financial Cycle, and Macroprudential Policies: Credit Register Evidence from an Emerging Country
- The Effectiveness of Housing Market Policies in Hong Kong
- Inequality and Poverty across Generations in the European Union
- Housing, Household Debt and Policy
- 2018 AEA Annual Meeting’s Papers on Climate Change and Energy
- Housing View – January 19, 2018
- Tonga’s Housing Sector
- Regulatory Cycles: Revisiting the Political Economy of Financial Crises
- 2018 AEA Annual Meeting's Papers on Inequality
- Housing View – January 12, 2018
- 10 top thinkers on Development, summarized in 700 words by Stefan Dercon
- Workshop: Trade Policy, Inclusion and the Rise of the Service Economy
- For Vietnam, Greener Growth Can Reduce Climate Change Risks
- Growth-Equity Trade-offs in Structural Reforms
- Housing View – January 5, 2018 [2018 AEA Annual Meeting Special Edition]
- Okun’s Law in Russia
- GDP growth forecasts and information flows: Is there evidence of overreactions?
- CO2 Emissions in UK
- David Hendry on Why Forecasting Fails
- The Rate of Return on Everything: 1870–2015
- ► December (37)
- ► 2017 (200)
- ► December (24)
- Housing View – December 29, 2017
- The Top 17 of ‘17
- Housing in Bolivia
- 13 economists on the research that shaped our world in 2017
- The Economics Debate, again and again
- Housing View – December 22, 2017
- House Prices in Cyprus
- Housing Market in Finland
- The Impact of Fiscal Consolidations on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Housing View – December 15, 2017
- How can Natural Gas from TAP increase Productivity?
- Medium Term Growth in Albania
- Okun's Law in Finland: Declining Labor Market Sensitivity
- Finland’s Labor Market
- 2018 Housing Forecasts
- Housing View – December 8, 2017
- Welfare vs. Income Convergence and Environmental Externalities
- Macroprudential Policy in China's Real Estate Market
- Housing in the Maldives
- Djibouti’s Quest for Inclusive Growth
- 2017 Year in Review: A Look Back At the Housing Stories
- The State of Housing Market in Africa
- Growth for the Bottom 40 Percent: The World Bank Group’s Support for Shared Prosperity
- Housing View – December 1, 2017
- ► November (15)
- New eBook: Ordoliberalism: A German oddity?
- Housing View – November 24, 2017
- House Prices in Philippines
- Korea’s Paradigm Shift for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth: A Proposal
- Mexico's Structural Reform Agenda": Early Signs of Success"
- Housing in Sweden
- Growth and Jobs in Developing Economies: Trends and Cycles
- Housing View – November 17, 2017
- Inequality in Financial Inclusion, Gender Gaps, and Income Inequality
- Hollowing Out: The Channels of Income Polarization in the United States
- Dani Rodrik Takes A Crack at Neoliberalism
- Housing View – November 10, 2017
- Productivity and Pay: Is the Link Broken?
- Roads or Schools: A Critical Tradeoff
- Housing View – November 3, 2017
- ► October (17)
- Inequality in Brazil: A Regional Perspective
- Building Resilience to Natural Disasters: An Application to Small Developing States
- Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance
- Housing View – October 27, 2017
- Property Tax in Africa
- The Macroeconomic (and Distributional) Effects of Public Investment in Developing Economies
- Housing Market in Cambodia
- Housing View – October 20, 2017
- Aggregate Uncertainty Shocks and Sectoral Productivity
- Housing View – October 13, 2017
- Capital Account Liberalization and Inequality
- The IMF’s Fiscal Monitor on Tackling Inequality
- House Prices in Spain
- A Closer Look at Employment Creation in Spain since the Crisis
- Housing View – October 6, 2017
- IMF Fiscal Advice to Saudi Arabia
- Who’s the fairest of them all? Ranking countries combining incomes and inequality
- ► September (20)
- Housing View – September 29, 2017
- The Unequal Burden of Rising Temperatures: How Can Low-Income Countries Cope?
- Better thy Neighbor? Cross-border Effects of Fiscal Actions
- Housing View – September 22, 2017
- Corruption in Latin America: Taking Stock
- Growth That Reaches Everyone: Facts, Factors, Tools
- House Prices in Portugal
- The Youth in Portugal through the Crisis
- The Public Sector Wage Bill in Portugal
- Global House Prices: An Update
- Housing View – September 15, 2017
- Increasing Resilience to Large and Volatile Capital Flows: The Role of Macroprudential Policies in Cambodia
- Increasing Resilience to Large and Volatile Capital Flows: The Role of Macroprudential Policies in Sweden
- Does Okun’s Law Hold in Swaziland?
- Okun’s Law in Black and White
- Housing View – September 8, 2017
- Stan Fischer: A Class Act
- Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies
- Why economic forecasting has always been a flawed science
- Housing View – September 1, 2017
- ► August (13)
- Are Emissions Decoupling from Growth?
- Perspective and Trends in the US Housing Market
- Housing View – August 25, 2017
- Housing Finance and Real Estate Markets in Colombia
- Housing View – August 18, 2017
- Inequality in China – Trends, Drivers, and Policy Remedies
- Assessing China's Residential Real Estate Market
- Housing View – August 11, 2017
- Stabilizing the System of Mortgage Finance in the United States
- Housing View – August 4, 2017
- Bridging the Gap: Forecasting Interest Rates with Macro Trends
- Japan’s Lifetime Employment and Gender Inequality
- Japan: Risks Emerging from Real Estate?
- ► July (29)
- Housing Market in Singapore
- Housing in the U.S.
- A Profile of Assaf Razin
- Housing View – July 28, 2017
- Why economists cannot forecast recessions
- Housing in the Euro Area
- Ten Ways to Expand U.S. Growth
- Housing: From Immobile and Illiquid to Mobile and Liquid
- Meeting EU Climate Pledges: Assessing Some Potential Policy Refinements
- Inequality of Opportunity, Inequality of Income, and Long-term Growth
- What Explains the Decline of the U.S. Labor Share of Income? An Analysis of State and Industry Level Data
- Forecasting: How to Map the Future Global Business
- Housing View – July 21, 2017
- Women Are Key for Future Growth: Evidence from Canada
- Housing in St. Kitts and Nevis
- Housing in United Arab Emirates
- Housing in Poland
- Housing View – July 17, 2017
- Inequality in Brazil: A Micro-data Analysis
- Staying the Role Model: Advancing Gender Equality in Rwanda
- How Advanced Economies Tackle Housing Market Imbalances: Lessons for Canada
- Housing Market in Germany
- Housing View – July 10, 2017
- Fostering Inclusive Growth
- Environment and Climate Change in Vietnam
- House Prices in Lithuania
- Are House Prices Overvalued in Norway?
- International Jobs Report 2017:H1
- Housing View – July 5, 2017
- ► June (18)
- Cross-Country Spillovers of Fiscal Consolidations in the Euro Area
- House Prices in Peru
- Housing View – June 27, 2017
- House Prices in Ireland
- House Prices in Czech Republic
- Income Inequality and the Welfare System in Ireland
- Construction Sector: The World’s Next Productivity Story?
- Global Housing Watch - Q2 2017
- Forecasting Long-Term Interest Rates: A Long History of Errors
- House Prices in Iceland
- Denmark's Housing Market
- Rodrik on Financial Globalization and Inequality
- Dani Rodrik on the populist backlash against globalization
- Understanding Today’s Stagnation
- House Prices in Thailand
- Colombia's Housing Market
- Is the United States Becoming Less of an Optimal Currency Area?
- Colombia's Peace Agreement Can Give Fillip to Inclusive Growth
- ► May (12)
- Inclusive Growth Framework
- The Quest for Inclusive Cities
- Trading with China : Productivity Gains, Job Losses
- Housing Construction: The Current State, Policy Implication, and the Future
- Asia Continues to Be the World Growth Leader
- Every Woman Counts: Gender Budgeting in G7 Countries
- Belt and Road Initiative: Strengthening Financial Connectivity
- Housing Market in Luxembourg
- The Informal Economy in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Restarting Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth Engine
- Macroprudential Policy in New Zealand
- House Prices in Malaysia
- ► April (8)
- Understanding Housing Supply: Views from Joseph Gyourko
- Going for (Inclusive) Growth
- International Experience of Limits on LTV, DSTI, and LTI Ratios
- A Closer Look at Global Housing
- Housing Market in San Marino
- Workshop on Forecasting Issues in Developing Economies
- Corruption and Growth in Ukraine
- Housing Market in Netherlands
- ► March (18)
- The Power of Two: Inclusive Growth and the IMF
- Das House-Kapital: A Long Term Housing & Macro Model
- Build It and They Will Come: A New Data Set on Services Exports
- Housing Market in Israel
- Steve Malpezzi on Housing Markets
- House Prices in Slovak Republic
- Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India
- Jobs and Happiness
- Does Money Buy Happiness? Evidence from China
- House Prices in Belgium
- OPEC’s Rebalancing Act
- IMF on the Decline in Labor Share of Income
- Trade Integration in Latin America and the Caribbean
- Trade, Growth and Inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean
- Global House Prices: An Update
- Creative Financing for Affordable Housing
- Shaping the Future of Construction: Insights to redesign the industry
- Morocco: Reducing Gender Inequality Can Boost Growth
- ► February (13)
- Housing Market in Africa: What We Do and Don’t Know
- Housing Market in Malta
- House Prices in Macao (SAR)
- House Prices in Australia
- Okun's Law: Fit at 50?--Revised Paper and Dataset
- House Prices in Indonesia
- Turkey's Tourism Sector: Recent Developments and the Impact on the Broader Economy
- House Prices in Morocco
- Housing Market in Ireland
- Housing Market in Turkey
- House Prices in Austria
- Groundhog Day Tradition: 2017 Stekler Award for Courage in Forecasting
- Increased Social Inclusion in Uruguay– the Role of Government Policies
- ► January (13)
- The Fruits of Growth: Economic Reforms and Lower Inequality
- Okun's Law and Phillips Curves in Asia
- Macroeconomic Structural Policies and Income Inequality in Low-Income Developing Countries
- House Prices in Spain
- Where are Oil Prices Headed?
- House price measurement: Recent progress
- Toward Inclusive Globalization
- IMF WEO Forecasts: A Shifting Economic Landscape
- An Economy for the 99%
- IMF Executive Board Discusses Macroeconomic Prospects and Challenges in LIDCs
- Decoupling of Emissions and GDP: Now you see it, now you don’t
- Inclusive Growth and the IMF
- Three Economists Walk into a Bar: Ouch! (The Perils of Forecasting)
- ► December (24)
- ► 2016 (131)
- ► December (18)
- The Top 16 of ‘16
- Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts
- Bolivia's Gains from the 2000s Gas Boom
- Monetary Policy and Inequality
- The Fed and the U.S. Economy: Hitting the Bull's Eye?
- (Not) On The Road Again: Americans Are Moving Less
- Housing Market in Switzerland
- GDP Demystified
- Put Forecasting in Its Final Resting Place
- A Tale of Transition : An Empirical Analysis of Economic Inequality in Urban China
- When China Sneezes Does ASEAN Catch a Cold?
- Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks
- The IMF is Not Asking Greece for More Austerity
- Housing Market in Chile
- Housing Market in Namibia
- Austerity and Inequality: New Evidence from the IMF
- European Unemployment: Deja Vu All Over Again?
- Will Interest Rates Stay Low?
- ► November (11)
- Housing Policies: What Works?
- Global House Prices: Time to Worry Again?
- Spillovers from the Oil Sector to the Housing Market Cycle
- Housing in Developed and Developing Countries
- Mexico’s welfare gains from hedging oil-price risk
- House Prices in Mexico
- Global Housing Watch Quarterly Update
- International Jobs Report: Global Unemployment Inching Up Again
- Housing Market in Sweden
- Can Property Taxes Reduce House Price Volatility? Evidence from U.S. Regions
- Was Krugman Right? Unemployment during the Great Recession
- ► October (14)
- A “New Normal” for the Oil Market
- Housing in the U.S.: Affordable or Not?
- Employment, Efficiency, Equity: Evolution in IMF Thought
- Technology, Efficiency and Equity
- Top 100 in global finance: two from the IMF make the cut
- Gone with the Wind: Estimating Hurricane Climate Change Costs in the Caribbean
- Goodbye Gentle Jim: Links to Jim Gordon’s Contributions
- Greenspan and I: My Memories of the Maestro
- Does Growth Create Jobs? Evidence for Advanced and Developing Economies
- Verdict on Greenspan: Mallaby’s New Biography Delivers
- Rethinking the Oil Market
- Jobs and Growth: Outlook and Policy Response
- Financial Globalization, Inequality and the Top 1%
- IMF Research on Inequality: A Primer
- ► September (6)
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- House prices in Korea
- Growing Apart, Losing Trust? The Impact of Inequality on Social Capital
- Global and Local Housing Markets: The View From Experts at the Dallas FED
- Is Uncertainty Hurting Productivity?
- Workshop on Global Labor Markets
- Housing Market in China
- How Reliable is China’s Output Data?
- Climate Mitigation Policy in China: The Many Attractions of Carbon or Coal Taxes
- How Accurate Are Private Sector Fiscal Forecasts? Evidence from the Great Recession
- Demographic Dividends, Gender Equality, and Economic Growth: The Case of Cabo Verde
- Can Reform Waves Turn the Tide? Evidence on the Effects of Structural Reforms
- Global Housing Watch Update
- Special Issue on Global Labor Markets: Call for Papers
- Japan: Minimum wages as a policy tool
- Labor Mobility in the United States
- Okun’s Law: Fit at 55?
- Real Estate Market in Ireland
- ► July (16)
- Housing Market in United Arab Emirates
- Issi Romem on BuildZoom and the U.S. Housing Market
- Jobs and Growth: The Evolution in IMF Research
- Karl E. Case: Remembering A Top Housing Market Guru
- Evictions and Housing: Why Should We Care?
- House Prices in Peru
- Housing Market in Poland
- House Prices in Czech Republic
- What Keeps France's Unemployment High?
- House Prices in Norway
- Female Labor Force Participation in Poland
- OPEC’s Strategic Actions and the 2014 Oil Price Crash
- The Role of Productivity Growth in Reducing Regional Economic Disparities in Poland
- Norway: The Transition from Oil and Gas
- Housing Market in Germany
- The Danish Housing Market: An Update
- ► June (3)
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- Marja C Hoek-Smit on Housing Markets in Developing and Emerging Countries
- Oil Prices and the Global Economy: It’s Complicated
- Breaking the Link between Housing Cycles, Banking Crises, and Recession
- Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Canada’s House-Price Dilemma
- Financial Stability and Interest-Rate Policy
- Make in India: Which exports can drive the next wave of growth?
- House Prices in Indonesia
- House Prices in Montenegro
- House Prices in Belgium
- Sharing the Growth Dividend: Analysis of Inequality in Asia
- Housing Market in Fiji
- ► February (11)
- Housing Market in the United Kingdom
- Inequality and opening up to foreign capital and inequality: some new results
- Experts Weigh in on the State of the Global Housing Market
- Financial Development, Inequality and Poverty: Some International Evidence
- The IMF’s Interest in Inclusive Growth: Promising or PR?
- International Jobs Report
- House Prices in Austria
- House Prices in the Netherlands
- House Prices in New Zealand
- House Prices in Morocco
- A Groundhog Day Tradition: The Stekler Award for Courage in Forecasting
- ► January (12)
- The Unemployment Picture in 2016
- Experts Confer on State of China’s Housing Market
- Global Housing Watch Quarterly Update
- “Growth is devilishly hard to predict”
- Four Questions About Recent Developments in UK's Housing Market
- Housing and Systemic Risk
- Housing Market in Malta
- Hong Kong Property Prices: Ripe for a Correction?
- Housing Market in Ireland
- Housing Developments and Macroprudential Measures in Slovak Republic
- Mortgage market in Poland
- Effectiveness and Channels of Macroprudential Policies: Lessons from the Euro Area
- ► December (18)
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- Labor Migration across U.S. States: An Update
- Fund Fires Employment Guru?
- Canada's Housing Market: Which Way Now?
- Sovereign wealth funds in the new era of oil
- IMF's Thanksgiving message: ensure benefits of foreign capital are shared broadly
- Forecasting: Who keeps the score?
- House Prices in Mexico
- House Prices in Finland
- Effects of Wage Moderation in the Euro Area
- International Jobs Report
- ► October (9)
- Housing Markets: Balancing Risks and Rewards
- Global House Prices: Gloom, Boom or Doom?
- On U.S. Labor Market Slack: Updated Estimates of the Impact of Uncertainty on Unemployment
- Is the Phillips Curve alive? And should we care?
- Union power and inequality
- Spillovers of Unconventional Monetary Policy
- Dialogue with Angus Deaton
- The Frenchman Who Reshaped the IMF
- Are Australia's House Prices Overvalued?
- ► September (12)
- US Housing Market: An Update
- India's Housing Market: What's happened? What's next?
- The Stekler Award for Courage in Forecasting (Recessions Inaccurately)
- Developments in Israel's Housing Market
- Housing Market in Saudi Arabia
- Israel’s Labor Market: High Inequality, Low Productivity
- Rising House Prices and Household Debt: A Twin Boom in Norway?
- Metals and Oil: A Tale of Two Commodities
- Macroprudential Policies in the Philippines
- What Lies Behind Norway’s Low Unemployment Rate?
- Norway: Peak in Oil Fortunes?
- Labor Day Special: How Countries Rank on Whether Growth Creates Jobs
- ► August (11)
- Behind the commodities bust
- Chile's Housing Market
- Spain's Housing Market
- China: How Big Is the Risk of a Real Estate Slowdown and Does It Matter?
- Johan Norberg: India Awakes
- Recent Labor Market Reforms in Spain: A Preliminary Assessment
- House Prices in Jordan
- House Prices in United Arab Emirates
- Price Expectations and the US Housing Boom
- House Prices in Europe
- House Prices in Singapore
- ► July (12)
- Should Emerging Markets Fear A Fed Lift-Off?
- On the Globalization of Real Estate and its Consequences
- US Housing Market: An Update
- House Prices in Czech Republic
- House Prices in Japan
- LTV and DTI Limits—Going Granular
- Housing Market in Lebanon
- IMF Staff Paper: Unionization, Minimum Wages and Inequality
- House Prices in Germany
- Housing Market in Poland
- Housing Market in France
- US Housing Market
- ► June (7)
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- ► February (16)
- Lower unionization associated with increased inequality: IMF F&D
- Jobs & Inequality: Special Feature in Finance & Development
- Global Housing Watch Newsletter
- Uncertainty and U.S. Unemployment
- New Results on Capital Account Liberalization and Inequality
- House Prices in Slovenia
- Tom Sargent on U.S. and Europe: A Blast from the Past
- Oil Prices and Employment: Some Evidence from US States
- Is Manufacturing Still a Key to Growth?
- International Jobs Report: It's Not Just About US
- The Secret of the (Economic) Universe
- Labour mobility in the EU: dynamics and policies
- Persistent Overoptimism about Economic Growth
- On Groundhog Day, Honoring A Forecasting Giant
- Global Housing Watch Newsletter
- House Prices in Advanced and Emerging Economies
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- Labor Rewarded
- Not Your Father's Service Sector
- House Prices in Switzerland
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- The Science of Inequality
- The IMF's Andy Berg reviews Piketty
- House Prices in Hong Kong
- Minimum wages and firm employment: Evidence from China
- House Prices in Luxembourg
- House Prices in Estonia
- Macroprudential Policies in Asia
- House Prices in Qatar
- ► April (7)
- Global House Prices: Continue Rising
- Minimum Wages and Employment
- Okun Isn't Brokun': Sorry to Sound like a Brokun' Record
- House Prices in Malaysia
- The taxman cometh: IMF Book Forum on Piketty’s Capital
- “There will be growth in the spring”: How well do economists predict turning points?
- IMF's World Economic Outlook--April 2014
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- Global House Prices: falling, recovering, or bubbling?
- Judging Jeff Sachs
- Distributional Consequences of Fiscal Consolidation
- Global House Price Watch
- Okun's Not Broken: Jobs and Growth are Still Linked
- "Austerity" and Inequality: Engaging UNICEF
- House Prices in Austria
- U.S. “Structural” Unemployment: Updated Estimates
- House Prices in the Nordics
- House Prices in Sweden
- House Prices in Norway
- A Marxist theory is (sort of) right
- ► August (8)
- Stan Fischer: A Class Act
- Florida vs. Spain: Labor Mobility within Currency Unions
- The Driving Force behind Construction in Europe
- The Stock Market 'Prediction Charade'
- Okun's Law during the Great Recession: jobs and growth are still linked
- House Prices in Germany
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- Great Recession and Not-So-Great Recovery
- Free to Spend, Developing Economies Recover Quicker
- Krugman on why this global recovery is different
- What Next for the Eurozone? Macroeconomic Policy and the Recession
- How the IMF became the friend who wants us to work less and drink more
- Why is the Global Recovery So Weak?
- IMF Urges Caution on Union Policy
- How Labor Markets Can Support Workers, Economic Growth
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- Tom Sargent on European and U.S. Economic Woes—and History
- Davos told that stimulus and social protection vital for growth
- Manufacturing: Hope or Hopeless?
- Global Think Tanks Rankings
- “Treat us right, not white”: MLK Day 2012
- How Inequality Damages Economies
- The Good, the Bad and the Ugly (Boom, Gloom or Doom?): Global GDP Outlook from Ethan Harris
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- Energy Security: Depend, but Diversify
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- IMF Sees Oil Prices Staying High
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