The Unassuming Economist

From the IMF’s latest report on Albania:

“Natural gas will have significant implications on Albania in the medium term. Substituting natural gas for electricity will reduce business costs and households’ expenses. The cost reductions for firms and households will not be minor considering the cost of heating can be reduced to 1/3 by substituting natural gas for electricity. The challenge is that the existing pipelines and distribution networks are almost obsolete.

Construction of new pipelines and distributions networks will be needed. The government is already analyzing the cost and potential tariffs. The economically feasible infrastructure has an approximated cost of €0.5 billion for the distribution network and about €0.2-0.3 billion for the main pipelines. A key component of this new infrastructure will be Ionian Adriatic Pipeline (IAP) to bring natural gas from Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) to the main urban centers (including Tirana).

The development of this infrastructure will require significant efforts to attract private sector investment. Building a sound regulatory framework is a key priority.”

IMF’s latest report says that “Growth in Albania is recovering but has recently been driven by large FDI projects, raising concerns about the sustainability of the recovery and underlying growth potential. This study assesses the prospects and challenges for medium term growth. While Albania’s external conditions are favorable, low savings and demographic trends are expected to weigh on investment and labor utilization. However, EU accession literature suggests that institutional reforms as an EU candidate country can catalyze productivity improvements and potential growth in Albania.”

A new IMF report on Finland’s labor market finds that “the response of employment to output seems to have slowed since 2000. Based on the entire 1973–2016 sample, the estimate of [Okun coefficient] is equal to 0.5. However, there are substantial differences between the subsamples considered. For example, using data until 2000 yields a [Okun coefficient] of 0.75, while more recently a one percent increase in output has been associated only with a 0.3 percent expansion of employment.”

Continue reading here, page 23-30.

A new IMF report says that “Finland’s labor market features a highly educated workforce and has safeguarded equality during a time of adverse shocks. But labor market outcomes have not been as good as in Nordic peers for many years. This paper suggests that there is room for improvement in two main areas. First, wages have become misaligned with productivity at the sectoral level during the past decade. More firm-level flexibility in collective bargaining could help to address this. Second, labor supply is lower among certain population groups compared to other Nordics; to this end, bolstering work incentives further for the low skilled, women of child-bearing age, young and old workers would help. These structural measures would be important also because employment seems to respond less to cyclical growth upswings now than before the turn of the millennium. Finally, additional policies to facilitate the adjustment of the labor market to global trends—technological change and globalization—will likely be needed over the longer term.”

2018 Housing Forecasts collected by Bill McBride: